Team: 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers

Initial Creation Date: May 15, 2023

Published: May 15, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

An unfortunate end to a 50-win Oilers season. If the playoffs revealed anything, it shows that the Oilers are close but not close enough. In this immediate reaction to being eliminated, I could forsee this as a realistic and sensible reality for the 23/24 Edmonton Oilers.

DEFENCE
The Oilers' top priority will be negotiating a new deal for Evan Bouchard. Evan's game rose astronomically after the organization entrusted him to fill Tyson Barries shoes despite a poor first 60 games of the season. He became a force on the powerplay and Mattias Ekholm settled his defensive game down (although that's still a work in progress). We need to try and avoid a bridge deal at all costs. I think somewhere in the 5-6M range over 5 years will fit as his best comparable is Noah Dobson (4Mx3).

Matt Dumba arrives in Edmonton on a 1-year prove-it deal after a poor season in Minnesota where he was healthy scratched several times. Dumba takes a significant pay cut from his 6M to play a big role on a contending team. There is an argument he would make more than the number I have him theoretically signed to in this model.

Cody Ceci is moved back to Ottawa for draft picks. Ottawa needs right-handed D and they get a guy they are familiar with on a fair contract. Ceci struggled this year, and it's in the Oilers best interest to find an upgrade on the right side.

The most difficult decision they will face this year on defence is the Broberg vs. Kulak discussion. Edmonton needs good, cheap players but they also have to win in this window. Kulak is an extremely effective bottom pair D who skates tremendously well and is a great fit here. Broberg, and 8th overall pick in 2019 has yet to find a consistent role in this Oilers lineup. My call is to move Kulak for picks or a depth D and let Broberg develop. As the 5/6D, if he doesn't perform adequately, you can upgrade at the deadline and you will survive. I believe in Broberg as a prospect.

FORWARDS
Oilers will need to move out money this summer. Yamo had a tough year and it may be best for the player to have a fresh start. Kailer is a tenacious player that simply has lacked finish. He's an extremely useful player, but for 3.1M the Oilers cannot afford what he brings. I have him in a deal for Taylor Raddysh who scored 20 goals on a bad Chicago team. Chicago trades Raddysh for the upside of Yamamoto and Edmonton gets a good bottom 6 forward for under 800k. Oilers may need to move a pick to make it work.

Foegele, despite strong performances at the end of the year (including playoffs), is a cap causality. He is a consistent double-digit goal player who is slightly overpaid. I can imagine there is a team who wouldn't mind his services as a 3rd line player.

If Toews decides to play again, this is a player the Oilers should target. Toews is a leader of men and a three time champion. The Oilers currently have 0 players who have won a cup, and just 1 skater whos been to a cup final (Ekholm). Toews adds pedigree and can still produce offensively. Other than his leadership and experience, Toews will add significant faceoff prowess and the ability to kill penalities.

Connor Brown was nearly traded to the Oilers last summer before Ottawa chose to deal with Washington. Brown tore his ACL in his 4th game played and will be seeking a short-term opportunity to re-establish himself and his production. At 2.2M, Brown can join a contender, allow his old Erie Centreman to pump his numbers, and get a Zach Hyman-like deal elsewhere when the cap rises next season. Makes sense for both the player and the team.

Oilers resign RFAs McLeod and Kostin. Both are useful players and are developing tremendously. Raph Lavoie gets a 1-way deal and he may push for the 21-man roster. Derek Ryan who is a great veteran and consistent player reupps in Edmonton on a reasonable deal. Bjugstad and Janmark will hit the UFA market as I don't think Janmark will want to stay and Bjugstad prices himself out of Edmonton.

Lastly, the Oilers will rely on internal development. They need Holloway to take a massive step forward and challenge for privileged ice time.

CONCLUSION
This is a more active offseason than I could actually imagine Holland (or Staios) actually taking. In reality, its minor tweaks to the existing core. Although I believe my offseason aligns with the genesis of that, I cant imagine changes being this drastic. Its also possible some of the FA signs will request greater AAVs than I have listed with would subject some of these changes moot.

Let me know what you think Oiler fans/NHL fans.

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