Unsustainable shooting percentages are due for regression. I’m sorry I don’t buy 2 of the top 10 shooting %s this century (including the HIGHEST SINGLE SEASON SHOOTING % since 1990) as sustainable methods of production. And other than that Pettersson has NOT been a PPG player. Gotta prove it more than once.

Is this the part where you show advanced metrics you don’t understand? And I explain to you the flaws in them, and that while they are better than normal counting stats, they are luck impacted, and are heavily influenced by said 27% shooting %? Unsustainable luck evens out (see: Erik haula late regular season and playoffs production evening out towards his expected production)

Pettersson is better defensively. You also underrate Hughes defensive play, his offensive play, and overrating Pettersson’s offensive ability.

The offensive gap is more meaningful than the defensive gap.

But anyway we can see next year. If Pettersson can produce numbers again like that (I don’t think he can and will drop to an 80-85 point player), then I will give him his flowers. But never breaking 70 and then suddenly a pair of teammates shoot 25% combined for 30 assists is not sustainable production

Can say the same as Hughes. Never even broke 60 until this year. Terrible argument. There’s a thing called breaking out. A young player like Pettersson had a breakout year… Nothing he did was unsustainable. In fact, he shot below his career average. He was unlucky this year. Not only that, while Kuzmenko was fantastic, they had a constant rotation of bottom 6 players on the other wing. His offensive play driving numbers is near the top of the league. One of the best offensive contributors in the game. Hughes is up there as well. No reason he can’t be a consistent 90+ point player with elite level defense

The offensive gap is not significant. Hughes is only slightly better. Pettersson on the other hand is significantly better defensively and it isn’t even close. Hughes has replacement level defensive impacts. How are you going to twist this one onto luck? Also, Pettersson has 323 points in 325 games. I’d say that’s a point per game player. You can’t seriously say there’s a huge gap when their offensive metrics are very similar, and Pettersson put up more points. Maybe if you watched Canucks games, you’d see that Kuzmenko’s high shooting percentage is due to amazing passes by Pettersson. Most of his powerplay goals are back door tip ins from unreal passes by pettersson. You say I bring things ip without context, but clearly you don’t either. Watch some Pettersson footage. Maybe then you wouldn’t be so critical. You also failed to acknowledge that Pettersson produced at a better rate AFTER Horvat was traded? How does this happen???? I thought all his points were because of crazy shooting luck? Well clearly not because he lost the luckiest shooter in the league, and played even better without Horvat. What do you have to say about that?

He can play center and that's enough to be included

Hughes: 1.14 ppg age 20 season, 1.27 age 21 season (despite his primary linemate being snakebitten alongside him due to bad luck). That’s normal development.
Pettersson: 0.93 age 20, 0.97 age 21, 0.81 age 22 (albeit small sample size), 0.85 age 23, 1.28 age 24. Sorry that I don’t instantly trust 1 year WAY off his previous marks, where he got THIRTY ASSISTS to guys shooting historic shooting %s, to be who Pettersson is.


About the production increase. Kuzmenko shot 31% after the horvat trade.

He plays in a division with AWFUL goalies (the only goalie ranking in the top 20 in GSAx from that division was Korpisalo who put up half of that in the metro), on an offensively focused team (only 18 assists to non elite offensive players,

Meanwhile Jack Hughes division features 4 such goalies, as well as Korpisalo for half the year.

I think Hischier, Barzal, and Kopitar should be given an HM, or considered for the last spot.

Kuzmenko: 24 xgoals 39 goals, 23 assists for pettersson
Haula: 22 xgoals, 14 goals, 1 assist for Hughes.
That gap of finishing ability+shooting luck by teammates is literally the only reason this is even a discussion.
God imagine if the luck went the other way, I believe that would be 120 or so points for hughes, and 80 for pettersson. But unfortunately hughes had a snakebitten teammate, and pettersson's teammate shot the highest % in more than 30 years, but surely that is sustainable.

Once again, you're making a lot of if statements... If if if. Sure. If Elias Pettersson was luckier, he would have a 150 point season. You can't simply say "If Hughes was luckier, he would be better". No kidding he would have more points with more luck. You can't use that as an argument. Also, you once again failed to acknowledge how Pettersson's production was better without Horvat than with Horvat. As well, Pettersson's production had no difference with and without Kuzmenko. Pettersson gifted Kuzmenko goals, Not the other way around. The only reason Kuzmenko had such a high shooting percentage was because Pettersson was giving him such good oppertunities. Perhaps take a moment to look at Pettersson and Kuzmenko highlights this season.

If your only argument is Kuzmenko's shooting percentage, then I won't bother replying. This is a pointless argument as you have brought nothing to the table except called Pettersson lucky. If he was so lucky, his play driving metrics wouldn't be as good as they are. You're also acting like playing the Pacific division is a big deal. You realize that they only play the Pacific division like 1 or 2 more games right? Negligable. Not an argument. Stop acting like the Pacific divisoin are the only teams Pettersson played against because they are not. His division having awful goalies has absolutely no correlation to his production. As for your last point, can you explain how a 4% shooting increase after the Horvat trade still made Pettersson produce more than before? Terrible argument. Did not prove anything. Fact is, Elias Pettersson is an elite play driver in the NHL. Not only that, he is a top 10 2 way forward in the league. Stop being ignorant, watch some Pettersson footage. Maybe then you would stop saying he is so lucky.

You're probably one of those haters who said Pettersson was a terrible player after his slow start last year. Guess what? He proved everyone wrong, and if you keep hating on him, he is going to prove you wrong again. Seeing as how the Canucks were absolutely demolished by injuries this year, Pettersson should actually have more NHL caliber linemates to play with next season, and less AHL callups on his right wing

Except I did. Did you not read the "About the production increase. Kuzmenko shot 31% after the horvat trade."

Ahh yes, clearly It is pettersson that made kuzmenko shoot historical numbers. Yep, totally accurate, except for the 4 years of evidence from pettersson's career stating otherwise. Why didn't he do this for linemates in past years?

I am not denying that Kuzmenko was gifted oppurtunities by pettersson. He had 24 xgoals which is very high. Kuzmenko simply did WAY more with those opportunities than any other player did with chances given to them, inflating Petterssons stats.
Jack Hughes generated just as many opportunities for Haula (22 xgoals). He didn't finish them. I personally don't evaluate players based on things they have no control over, such as how well their teammates shoot. If kuzmenko shot 6%, that would not make pettersson any worse of a player, and if haula shot 27% that would not make jack Hughes any better of a player.

Pettersson did make his linemates better in all the years he played. You have to realize that shooting % isn't everything. You need to know that Kuzmenko isn't a volume shooter. He doesn't take shots unless he thinks he has a legitamate chance of scoring. That is one flaw in his game. If you watched some footage of him, you'd see that almost all of his goals are back door tip ins, or breakaway/slot shots. He rarely takes a low % shot. You also need to realize that there are 3 players on each line. Kuzmenko was elite for sure, but Pettersson had a constant rotation of below average wingers on his other side. Mikheyev was excellent as a complementary player when he was healthy but he did not drive play. Beauvillier was also a good complementary player, however it was obvious that Pettersson carried him because after Beauvillier was moved off of Pettersson's wing, his production fell off a cliff. Then you go to the AHL caliber players like Podkolzin and Hoglander who both had very dissapointing years. Then you have some odd games where 4th liners like Dakota Joshua and Curtis Lazar somehow ended up on his wing. Kuzmenko and whatever collage of below average right wingers seems to balance out because Pettersson and Kuzmenko was basically a 2 man line for half the season

Pettersson played 26 games against the pacific and 16 against the metro. 26-16=10, not 2.

PPG by division
Metro: Hughes 1.44 ppg, 25 gp. Pettersson 1.375 16 gp
Atlantic: Hughes 1.04 24 gp Pettersson 1 16gp
Pacific: Hughes 1.47 15 gp Pettersson 1.46 26gp
Central: Hughes 1.14 14 gp 1.18 22gp

If we switch the divisions, that would put jack at 103 points in 80 games, and pettersson at 97 in 78 games.

Not an insignificant factor, and then when you factor in the massive shooting luck gap between Haula and Kuzmenko, the offensive gap between the 2 grows much wider.

I expect pettersson to be around 85 points next year, assuming kuzmenko's shooting %s regress to about 15% (still very high).

He's been a slightly below PPG player his whole career.

Hughes has been below PPG his entire career as well. Please... Pettersson should easily get 90 points next year if he gets to play with a decent right winger. 85 points would be quite low. Kuzmenko's shooting % will likely remain 15-20% given the type of player he is. Once again, he is not a high volume shooter. He only shoots the puck during high danger scoring chances. That would definitely cause him to have a higher shooting % than most player. I wouldn't be surprised of Pettersson put up 100+ points again and even get Selke considerations if the Canucks make the playoffs

Edit: After doing some digging, I found Kuzmenko's KHL stats, and his shooting % has always been very high.
21/22 season: 20%
20/21 season: 16%
19/20 season: 20%

As you can see, he naturally has a higher shooting % compared to the average player. With an elite center like Pettersson, we can expect that his shooting % stay at almost 20% next season given history

If Kuzmenko took more shots, he would likely score more goals. This potentially could lead to his shooting % going down, but his production and Pettersson's production going up. He is a quality shooter, not a quantity shooter

Yes, expected goals are a much better way of evaluating chance quality. Good thing I've mentioned that extensively.

All of those other players you mentioned shot approximately around their expectation based on shot quality.

Kuzmenko, Horvat, and Miller (this is not luck, he's simply an elite finisher), meanwhile shot approximately 30 goals above expectation (these 3 players account for 67% of pettersson's assists)

I will say that bratt (+6 goal diff), and hamilton (+8) shot above expectation, but the rest of the team (hischier -7, side note he and his line shot quite below expectations and the difference in shooting talent is the only reason Pettersson is even better than Nico), tatar. -4, haula -8, yegor -4 and most devils in general below expectation (due to a combination of goalie quality faced, luck, and finishing ability).

Horvat and Miller don't even play with Pettersson. Only on the powerplay when it is 5v4 or 5v3 where the shooting % is obviously going to be higher because there is a man advantage.... It doesn't take an analytic to realize this. Also to say that lucky shooting % is the only reason Pettersson is better than Hischier is laughable. Pettersson v Hughes is legitamate conversation, but Hischier is not even in the same tier. Come on, don't bring up that BS. That is so easily refutable. You can't even blame shooting luck on that

The fact of whether kuzmenko's shooting% comes from luck or skill on his part means nothing in a debate between Hughes and Pettersson. what Kuzmenko and Haula do with the chances given to them has no bearing on how good Hughes and Pettersson are. You seem to be unable to understand how to properly evaluate players, instead letting things they have no control over impact your opinions.

Personally I evaluate Jack Hughes based on the things Jack Hughes does on the ice, and Pettersson based on what pettersson does. Not based on what their teammates do

Fine, lets get rid of shooting luck altogether. Lets look at the expected advanced stats

Pettersson:
xEVO 13.5
xEVD 3.9
xOff 13.9
xDef 1.8
xGAR 21.8
xWAR 3.7

Hughes:
xEVO 13.8
xEVD 0.5
xOff 16.3
xDef 0.6
xGAR 21.7
xWAR 3.7

Well look at that, they have very similar expected stats. At the very worst, you can say that they are equal. You can't blame this on shooting % anymore. You value evaluating players based on what they do on the ice and not what their teammates do? Well here are some stats that show that. Now can you point to me where the significant gap between Pettersson and Hughes is? Seems to me here than Petterson drives play at a similar rate as Hughes and his offensive numbers are expected to be very similar to Hughes, however Pettersson has higher defensive impact. Overall Pettersson has a slightly (negligable) higher GAR, but they have the same xWAR. Seems to me that they have the same impact.

I talked about Horvat and Miller's xgoals. Xgoals evaluates chance quality. So those higher quality PP shots and chances you speak of are weighed in properly.

You seem to not be reading. I did not specify shooting luck. Pettersson is simply a much better shooter than Hischier. (if you notice I haven't mentioned Petterssons xgoals being lower than his goals as luck based, because elite shooters score at a higher rate than their expected chances. since pettersson can CONTROL how well he shoots, that is a factor that makes him better than hischier. since petterson has NO control over how effectively kuzmenko capitalizes on chances, those extra points from kuzmenko do NOT make him any better).

Hischier is better defensively than Pettersson. He is similar at generating chances offensively. What seperates the two is Pettersson is an elite finisher, while Hischier is not. This makes Pettersson a better player. However, like I said, If Hischier improves his finishing (if he shot slightly above his xgoals he'd have had 40 goals 91 points with selke quality defense), he will be better than Pettersson (and hughes assuming hughes doesn't continue to improve)

I appreciate you proving my point. Hughes is a level above offensively, Pettersson a level above defensively. I'd rather have Hughes.

Not going back into the shooting % discussion, but Hischier is not better defensively than Pettersson. That is easily refutable

Where is the "level above" offensively? Seems to me that Hughes is simply better on the powerplay and thats about it...

Last 2 years: (per 60)
Pettersson:
xEVO 0.538
xEVD 0.005
xOff 0.562
xDef -0.021
xGAR 0.703
xWAR 0.121

Hughes:
xEVO 0.667
xEVD -0.029
xOff 0.715
xDef -0.025
xGAR 0.856
xWAR 0.147

Like I said, level above offensively

Using the season where Pettersson played with a sprained wrist for 40 games is disingenuous

Pettersson:
“Coming into the season it was a little weird. I still had my wrist taped,” said Pettersson, then he paused and had a moment of realization. “I feel like that's gonna cause more headlines.”

He wasn’t wrong. Coming into the season, Pettersson was insistent that he was at 100%, with no ill effects from the wrist injury that ended his 2020-21 season. It was an injury that he described as “like trying to shoot with a knife in my wrist.”

If his wrist was still taped at the start of the season, that suggests that “100%” might have been a bit of an exaggeration. It's hard to avoid looking back at the start of the season and replaying every flubbed shot and mishandled deke with that information in mind.

Of course, there are other factors that played into his slow start, such as missing training camp while former Canucks general manager negotiated a new contract with his agent.

“I mean, I played 26 games last year,” said Pettersson. “Didn't play a game for, I don't know, eight months or something. So, it definitely was a slow start for me. It took me way longer than I wanted this season but I feel now in the last couple of weeks, I've played like myself again.”

Alright even when you take out that year (hughes was 20 btw), hughes had a better xGAR/60 and xWAR/60 this year as well, 0.836 vs 0.795