Team: 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Jun. 28, 2023

Published: Jun. 28, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

a) I would be shocked if the Leafs stick and pick at 28. There almost certainly is some package involving 28 to either get a Top 4 Defenseman or move off of Murray's contract. Offloading Murray gives Toronto 11.4 M in cap space to work with.

b) Toronto is going to lean on youth next season in the bottom 9. Knies, Robertson and Holmberg likely all become full time NHLers. If Treliving wants to be as active as possible in FA and Trades to bring in middle 6 scoring and top 4 defense, those 3 ELCs are going to be crucial for the Leafs. Makes sense why the Kampf contract was signed, he can play heavier minutes in case a guy like Robertson still needs to be weaned in defensively.

c) This doesn't get nearly talked about enough, but Jake Muzzin will almost be a certainty to be moved if Treliving is worth his salt. His 5.625 AAV counts against Toronto's cap at the moment. Toronto moving him to a team like Arizona (after the Leafs pay his bonus) with a 7th for future considerations would give the Leafs the money and financial flexibility to be more aggressive in FA. (We're talking upwards of 17 mill)

d) ROR, Bunting, Acciari will all head to Free Agency. I think Treliving would have preferred this Kampf signing to be about either ROR or Acciari, but given neither was likely willing to take the kind of discount that Kampf was willing to, Treliving probably pivoted to Kampf. Not ruling out a return for either of them, but given the Free Agency Class this year, they've likely priced themselves out of Toronto especially if Treliving wants to make that big addition on the blueline.

e) Sammy gets qualified but not signed. Toronto will get a 2nd round pick from Sammy if a team offers him market value in Free Agency. He's likely back for Toronto if he's willing to sign a 4 x 2 (similar to Adin Hill) but if not, he likely goes to market. If a team offers him what he wants, Toronto gets a free 2nd round pick. If his interest is not as strong, Toronto can bring him back on a cheaper deal. Essentially Toronto either gets Vladar on a cheap contract (lower than 3 AAV) and a 2nd round pick, or Samsonov at less than 4 AAV.

f) Treliving will invest in secondary scoring. I doubt he paid Kampf 2.4 with the idea in mind that he'd fill the entire bottom 6 with grinders. I expect a committed effort to go after middle 6 forwards (think PWF/TWF) via trade or free agency. (Think maybe as many as 2 of Domi, ROR, Barbashev, Compher)

g) Luke Schenn will be back on a relatively cheap deal. Schenn will get a deserved pay bump, I expect a contract along the lines of 2 AAV x 2. Expect a run at a Zadorov type player. I am convinced Treliving will be exploring trades for defenseman and not free agency.

h) Alex Kerfoot on the other hand should not and likely won't be back. He doesn't seem like a Treliving player and even if he were brought back it would have to be around a minimum contract.

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