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2024-25

Created by: SankFeravalli
Team: 2024-25 Colorado Avalanche
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 18, 2023
Published: Jul. 21, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
A way-too-early look at Colorado’s possible cap structure for 2024-25. Obviously plenty of projecting here.

$87.5M seems to be a fairly conservative guess at next year’s cap that NHL reporters have thrown around. (I know they’re over the cap and only have 20 players in this example. That will change if/when they move out a defenseman.)

Landeskog - Hoping he comes back close to form, or at least as a solid top six option, and can stay healthy.

AHL Graduates - I’m a Ben Meyers believer, and think he’ll find his footing this season in a more consistent role. He could sign for more if he has a good season this year. I liked what Foudy showed last year too. He’s probably a year away from full-time NHL action. Annunen should have every opportunity to fill the backup role with Francouz expiring.

ELCs - Assuming they both sign (not a guarantee), Sean Behrens and Nikolai Kovalenko could be massive value adds. I think Kovalenko’s ELC would be a 2 year deal, and Behrens’s would be a 3 year deal based on age. But both could theoretically strong arm the Avs into starting their ELCs at the end of this season, shaving a year off the back end.

Decision on Defense - More than likely, they’ll have to move on from one of Toews, Girard, or Manson going into the 25-26 season.
-Toews: Best player of the three. Would cost the most $$ to keep (I’m guessing on the contract). Already 30 years old. If he leaves, you lose him for nothing.
Girard: Would probably have the most trade value. Most cost-controlled (thru 26-27). They have two stylistic replacements in house (Behrens & Gulyayev).
Manson: Smallest cap hit & term remaining. Likely the lowest trade value (they might have to pay to move him).

25-26 Contracts - It will be difficult to add much money beyond the 24-25 season, as they have Rantanen, Byram, Georgiev, and Johansen all expiring after the 24-25 season. Each will need a new deal or replacement.
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
2$925,000
3$925,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$900,000
1$1,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
6$8,500,000
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
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2025
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2026
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
20$87,500,000$89,872,500$0$0-$2,372,500
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$4,500,000$4,500,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
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$12,600,000$12,600,000
C
NMC
UFA - 7
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$9,250,000$9,250,000
RW, C
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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$7,000,000$7,000,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 5
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$4,000,000$4,000,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
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$6,125,000$6,125,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 6
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$2,500,000$2,500,000
LW
M-NTC
UFA - 5
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$4,000,000$4,000,000
C, LW
NTC
UFA - 3
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$925,000$925,000
RW
RFA - 1
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$1,000,000$1,000,000
LW, C
UFA
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$847,500$847,500
C
RFA - 1
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$1,050,000$1,050,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$8,500,000$8,500,000
LD
UFA - 7
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$9,000,000$9,000,000
RD
UFA - 3
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$3,400,000$3,400,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$3,850,000$3,850,000
LD/RD
RFA - 1
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$900,000$900,000
G
RFA - 2
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$925,000$925,000
LD
RFA - 3
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2

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Jul. 21, 2023 at 9:31 a.m.
#1
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I'd say Toews comes in closer to 7.5 if they also give him lots of trade protection. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I just really think his age will work against him.

If Colorado does decide to keep Toews, Manson is gone. I can't see the team moving Girard over him unless they really need an addition up front. And assuming Landy returns and RyJo bounces back, I don't think that will be the case. Hopefully he has a good year and has some value, but we'll see.

Otherwise I see things similarly to what you have here.
Jul. 21, 2023 at 9:34 a.m.
#2
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I’d hope Toews would come in closer to 7.5mil. Manson should be the cap casualty over Girard regardless (UNLESS they get an offer for Girard they can’t refuse).

This team could really use some luck in developing some NHL ready ELC guys
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Jul. 21, 2023 at 11:01 a.m.
#3
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Quoting: McRanteskog
I’d hope Toews would come in closer to 7.5mil. Manson should be the cap casualty over Girard regardless (UNLESS they get an offer for Girard they can’t refuse).

This team could really use some luck in developing some NHL ready ELC guys


If we can't develop those guys we're gonna be stuck trying to sign whatever league-minimum free agents we can next summer and could very likely enter into NHL purgatory as our window closes. Makar, Mac and Rantanen are good enough to keep us out of the basement, but if some of those guys don't pan out I could easily see us missing the playoffs in two years.
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Jul. 21, 2023 at 11:13 a.m.
#4
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Non cap compliant
Jul. 21, 2023 at 12:48 p.m.
#5
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Toews at that number is a thank you for your service kind of deal, and move on. If Byram takes the steps he should, would COL do the unthinkable and move Toews for a haul considering what dmen have gone for at the deadline, not likely but an interesting thought.
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Jul. 21, 2023 at 1:07 p.m.
#6
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Kovalenko might get more. I think he'll only sign a 1-year RFA after the KHL season to come join the Avs for the playoffs, which would burn his last RFA year. If he's anywhere near as productive in the playoffs as he is in the KHL, he could be closer to Miles Wood money in UFA. There's a possibility that the Avs sign him to a longer RFA deal that gives him a tad more money (and since he'd join in April, his cap hit would be very minimal anyway), but if they manage to get him to sign for longer than just the 1-year, it would probably have to be at least $2. Otherwise, he should bet on himself.

And yes, you're right, Manson goes if Toews extends. Manson's NTC becomes a modified X-team (can't remember how many) NTC after this season - feels intentional for what they plan to do with Toews. Hopefully, we can send him somewhere on the west coast to finish out his contract. Plenty of cap space after that, and more so if Toews signs closer to 7.5.
Jul. 23, 2023 at 2:46 p.m.
#7
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Edited Jul. 23, 2023 at 2:53 p.m.
Quoting: McRanteskog
I’d hope Toews would come in closer to 7.5mil. Manson should be the cap casualty over Girard regardless (UNLESS they get an offer for Girard they can’t refuse).


Quoting: Anus_McLeod
I'd say Toews comes in closer to 7.5 if they also give him lots of trade protection. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I just really think his age will work against him.


Quoting: Xqb15a
Toews at that number is a thank you for your service kind of deal, and move on. If Byram takes the steps he should, would COL do the unthinkable and move Toews for a haul considering what dmen have gone for at the deadline, not likely but an interesting thought.


I think Toews gets at least $8M if the term is 6 years or less, whether it’s from the Avs or another team. He would be the top defenseman on half the teams in the NHL. Maybe Colorado could bring the AAV down by going longer on term, but at age 30 I’d hesitate to go more than 5 or 6 years.

Two recent comps are Dmirty Orlov (2x$7.75M) and Vince Dunn (4x$7.35M). I’m biased, but I would prefer Toews over either of those players. There will also be more clarity on how much the cap will continue to rise after this coming season.

I would also hesitate a little bit on big time trade protection if they offer max term, at least in the later years of the deal. There’s been some research about how late bloomers (like Toews) also tend to decline faster. I think his skating and IQ will help his longevity, but still have to be careful when signing a guy into his mid-/late-30s.

I’d imagine the ship has sailed on trading Toews. That probably would have been a decision they made early this summer, if at all. Even if they don’t think they can keep him come trade deadline, he would be their “own rental” (assuming the season hasn’t completely gone off the rails).

Quoting: swissmontana
Kovalenko might get more. I think he'll only sign a 1-year RFA after the KHL season to come join the Avs for the playoffs, which would burn his last RFA year. If he's anywhere near as productive in the playoffs as he is in the KHL, he could be closer to Miles Wood money in UFA. There's a possibility that the Avs sign him to a longer RFA deal that gives him a tad more money (and since he'd join in April, his cap hit would be very minimal anyway), but if they manage to get him to sign for longer than just the 1-year, it would probably have to be at least $2. Otherwise, he should bet on himself.


Kovalenko has to sign an entry level contract, and because of his age (23) it has to be a 2-year deal with a max AAV if $925k (plus performance bonuses). Evan Rawal put out an article this weekend about how Kovalenko may be signing with the Avs this summer, be loaned back to Torpedo to fulfill the last year of his KHL contract, and then come over to North America this spring. I think he would be eligible to play in the NHL playoffs, as long as he’s on the Avs roster before the trade deadline. If that’s the case, his entry level contract would expire at the end of the 24-25 season and he would be an RFA.
Jul. 23, 2023 at 7:25 p.m.
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Quoting: Mergus80
I think Toews gets at least $8M if the term is 6 years or less, whether it’s from the Avs or another team. He would be the top defenseman on half the teams in the NHL. Maybe Colorado could bring the AAV down by going longer on term, but at age 30 I’d hesitate to go more than 5 or 6 years.

Two recent comps are Dmirty Orlov (2x$7.75M) and Vince Dunn (4x$7.35M). I’m biased, but I would prefer Toews over either of those players. There will also be more clarity on how much the cap will continue to rise after this coming season.

I would also hesitate a little bit on big time trade protection if they offer max term, at least in the later years of the deal. There’s been some research about how late bloomers (like Toews) also tend to decline faster. I think his skating and IQ will help his longevity, but still have to be careful when signing a guy into his mid-/late-30s.

I’d imagine the ship has sailed on trading Toews. That probably would have been a decision they made early this summer, if at all. Even if they don’t think they can keep him come trade deadline, he would be their “own rental” (assuming the season hasn’t completely gone off the rails).



Kovalenko has to sign an entry level contract, and because of his age (23) it has to be a 2-year deal with a max AAV if $925k (plus performance bonuses). Evan Rawal put out an article this weekend about how Kovalenko may be signing with the Avs this summer, be loaned back to Torpedo to fulfill the last year of his KHL contract, and then come over to North America this spring. I think he would be eligible to play in the NHL playoffs, as long as he’s on the Avs roster before the trade deadline. If that’s the case, his entry level contract would expire at the end of the 24-25 season and he would be an RFA.


goooot it okay - so this was their last opportunity at an ELC, not at an RFA. makes sense
Jul. 24, 2023 at 9:55 p.m.
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Quoting: swissmontana
goooot it okay - so this was their last opportunity at an ELC, not at an RFA. makes sense


I think you have to sign an elc if you’re a drafted player until you’re over age 25, and if you sign at age 24 or 25 then it’s a 1 year elc. If you don’t sign by then, you just go right to UFA.

But exactly to your point, him signing a contract that starts this year helps him get to RFA a year earlier. If his game translates to the NHL (which I think it will) then he’ll definitely get more on his next deal.
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