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Pacific Division Playoff Predictions

Jul. 23, 2023 at 10:16 p.m.
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1. Vegas Golden Knights: Being the defending Stanley Cup Champions and managing to keep pretty much their entire roster intact outside of Reilly Smith, this one is pretty self-explanatory

2. Edmonton Oilers: A big part of why I'm awarding a 2nd seed prediction to the Oilers is because of how well the Matthias Ekholm acquisition worked out for the team. I see no reason why that marriage shouldn't pick up right where it left off going into next season, this team simply wouldn't be what it is without him. Stuart Skinner was pretty good too.

3. Los Angeles Kings: They've obviously been on the rise the past couple of seasons, and I do think they got better trading for Dubois, not just in acquiring Dubois, because they still had to give up something in Vilardi, Iafallo, and Kupari being sent the other way. With Dubois clearing indicating with that long-term extension that LA is a place he actually wants to be, I'm more than happy to assume that we'll see a more consistently engaged version of him next season, at least until proven otherwise. Beyond that, this team has a very well-balanced forward corps, a good but not great blueline, I think their goaltending can be serviceable enough, I don't believe it will sink them by itself especially since they will be playing in a relatively goalie-friendly environment

4. Vancouver Canucks: I know, I know, there are going to be a number of you wondering why I'm still betting on this team, beyond the fact that I'm a Canucks fan. While recent history results-wise argues against why we should assume things will finally click, I would contend on the other hand that in examining the finer details of the team's situation, there is actually no reason to forebode why things won't finally come together in Vancouver for the first time in a long time. The naysayers will say that the team only began getting results under Tocchet last season when it was garbage time, but if you actually look at how they were winning games, you'll see that the team was actually playing functionally better hockey and had an above .500 record while doing it, and a more goalie friendly environment should only help Thatcher Demko to maintain an above average to elite form more consistently throughout next season. The naysayers will also say that Tocchet was running the top guys too hard late in the season, well that wasn't about chasing a playoff spot, it was about creating a meritocracy in the locker room, an essential element to raising the standard of excellence in the organization, which needed to happen sooner or later. Getting to the off-season moves, I think Ian Cole deserves the benefit of the doubt with regard to what he can contribute because he posted elite defensive metrics on a good hockey team last season despite being up there in age. Carson Soucy is a bit of a wildcard when it comes to stepping into a top four role, but I think in playing with either Quinn Hughes or Filip Hronek for most of the season, they should be able to effectively hide or cover up Soucy's weaknesses as a defender. Teddy Blueger is obviously just a 3C stop gap, so it's fair to question how effective he will be playing that high in the lineup year-round, well it looks like he won't have the burden of driving play offensively on that third line because he will likely have Conor Garland on his right wing to shoulder those responsibilities for him.

5. Seattle Kraken: I honestly feel like we are being plagued by recency bias when it comes to this team, because none of us expected them to make the playoffs before last season began. Look, credit to the Kraken for finding team success in that sort of by-committee manner that they did, but relying on that strategy in place of high end talent has never proven translate to long-term success, at least not at the NHL level. I can see Matty Beniers reaching 70 points next year potentially if he takes a step offensively, but I don't see him being a PPG guy for at least another couple of seasons. I don't see Jared McCann scoring 40 goals next year either, I think he will almost definitely regress to being a 30 something goal scorer. At the end of the day, the Kraken are a team with a a high floor and a relatively low ceiling, so I'm obviously not going to completely write off their playoffs hopes, but I think they're at best a coin flip playoff team if they continue to stay the course. Oh yeah, and Shane Wright can't be expected to come in and be a savoir all by himself either.

6. Calgary Flames: Even if Lindholm, Hanifin, and Backlund remain on the roster going into the season, I see their uncertainties proving to be a huge distraction for the locker room, which I think in turn really limits the ceiling of this roster.

7. Anaheim Ducks: I don't see the Ducks being good next year, but with guys like Zegras and McTavish taking a step or two in their respective games, a healthy Jamie Drysdale, as well as some of the veteran help to come in and provide a positive influence on the younger guys, I think they can at least be better than San Jose who is most likely to be without Erik Karlsson next season.

8. San Jose Sharks: Much like Arizona, some talented pieces up front, but a largely dysfunctional roster outside of that, and I think we're all ready to assume Karlsson will be traded before the season begins.

It seems only yesterday we were bagging on how weak the Pacific division was, but all of a sudden they look quite a lot stronger than the Central division
Aug. 2, 2023 at 2:28 p.m.
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Here's my predictions for the Pacific Division as things stand. There are still major moves that could be made by some teams here that would shake things up, but for the most part I see the standings remaining much the same as they were last year. The Pacific Division overall is much stronger than in years past and should make for some entertaining playoff races.

1. Vegas Golden Knights - Losing Reilly Smith stings, but besides him Vegas was able to return essentially the same roster that had them atop the division and hoisting the Stanley Cup last season. No one else in the Pacific really did anything to propel themselves above the Knights in the standings, so I think Vegas finishes first again this year.

2. Edmonton Oilers - Thanks to their cap crunch, the Oilers didn't add much besides Connor Brown, who they're banking on to return strong post-injury. The roster is talented but top-heavy and players like Nugent-Hopkins will likely see some regression. Second/third place is a toss-up between the Oilers and Kings, but overall I think Edmonton as currently constructed will still finish second in the division. This ranking is more of a testament to their elite talent than anything else.

3. Los Angeles Kings - The Kings made the most impactful addition of anyone in the Pacific this offseason, trading for and extending Pierre-Luc Dubois. He definitely improves their center group and they still have a few young players who are capable of making strides this season. Their skating group is pretty balanced and well constructed, however the goaltending group is quite shaky. That Achilles heel may come back to bite the Kings in the postseason, but overall I think they'll still be firmly in the mix for a top-3 spot in the division.

4. Seattle Kraken (WC1) - The Kraken return mostly the same roster that brought them to their inaugural playoffs last season. They lost a handful of depth pieces in Morgan Geekie, Daniel Sprong, and Ryan Donato, and with them a decent bit of depth scoring. However, full seasons from Andre Burakovsky and Eeli Tolvanen plus a step forward from Matty Beniers should help mitigate that, and younger players like Kailer Yamamoto, Tye Kartye, and Shane Wright filling those vacated forward spots means their impressive depth will remain mostly intact. The defense pretty much the same; Brian Dumoulin replaces Carson Soucy, and I think Dumoulin will provide much of the same defensive solidity without as many backbreaking penalties/turnovers. Goaltending looks more solid now after Philipp Grubauer found his form, but it's still a potential weak spot; it'll be up to Gru to see that it isn't. Personally I believe talk of regression is a bit overblown; the Kraken's score by committee approach helps guard against a step back from any individual massively hurting the team as a whole, and in any event several of their returning players actually underperformed their career shooting percentages. The Kraken may lack a true star, but their virtually unparalleled depth and ability to roll four quality forward lines and three capable defensive pairings is a real weapon. They're basically the same team as they were last year, and I predict they end up in a similar position standings-wise this year.

5. Calgary Flames (WC2) - The Flames were the most difficult team for me to rank in this exercise; depending on what moves they make, they could probably finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th in the division this year. I think if they stand pat, a change in coaching will lead to a rebound from the roster, which clearly has talent; conversely, a selloff of their pending free agents could lead to them falling out of the playoff race entirely. Right now, I have them in firm contention for the playoffs and landing the second wild card spot, but this could change massively depending on how the rest of their offseason plays out.

6. Vancouver Canucks - The Canucks should be better than they were last year, a reduction in team drama will help with that. Adding talent will also help, and Canucks did add some pieces such as Teddy Blueger, Carson Soucy, and Ian Cole that should make them at least somewhat more competitive. However, I still don't think there's enough complementary pieces here around their core to make them a playoff team; forward depth will likely be a weakness unless their youngsters step up, and the defense in particular looks pretty rough.

7. Anaheim Ducks - The Ducks nearly took Troy Terry to arbitration today for some reason, but right under the bell wisely signed him long term at a manageable cap hit. They made a handful of veteran additions in Alex Killorn and Radko Gudas, which when combined with steps forward from their young players should help them bank a few more wins. However, their major defensive prospects are still a year or two away, and in the meantime they still need to find somebody with a pulse to keep the seat warm. They'll probably be a fun team to watch with some talented young forwards and a tire fire of a defense, but not very competitive. I think the Ducks will start off on a bit of a hot streak before falling back to earth, selling at the deadline, and ending up near the bottom of the division.

8. San Jose Sharks - Whether they like it or not, the Sharks are deep in a rebuild now. Their major contributors from years past are aging, they're only just starting to restock their prospect pool, and their goaltending tandem might just be the shakiest in the whole division, which is saying something. The Sharks' offseason is still not complete, with the specter of an Erik Karlsson trade looming, which will help them rebuild but make them even worse in the short term. I predict they'll be a major player at the deadline, with players like Alexander Barabanov and potentially Nico Sturm and Mario Ferraro netting them some quality returns, but performance-wise finish in the basement of the Pacific.
Aug. 3, 2023 at 2:28 a.m.
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Edited Aug. 3, 2023 at 3:04 a.m.
Quoting: KrakenTheCode
Here's my predictions for the Pacific Division as things stand. There are still major moves that could be made by some teams here that would shake things up, but for the most part I see the standings remaining much the same as they were last year. The Pacific Division overall is much stronger than in years past and should make for some entertaining playoff races.

1. Vegas Golden Knights - Losing Reilly Smith stings, but besides him Vegas was able to return essentially the same roster that had them atop the division and hoisting the Stanley Cup last season. No one else in the Pacific really did anything to propel themselves above the Knights in the standings, so I think Vegas finishes first again this year.

2. Edmonton Oilers - Thanks to their cap crunch, the Oilers didn't add much besides Connor Brown, who they're banking on to return strong post-injury. The roster is talented but top-heavy and players like Nugent-Hopkins will likely see some regression. Second/third place is a toss-up between the Oilers and Kings, but overall I think Edmonton as currently constructed will still finish second in the division. This ranking is more of a testament to their elite talent than anything else.

3. Los Angeles Kings - The Kings made the most impactful addition of anyone in the Pacific this offseason, trading for and extending Pierre-Luc Dubois. He definitely improves their center group and they still have a few young players who are capable of making strides this season. Their skating group is pretty balanced and well constructed, however the goaltending group is quite shaky. That Achilles heel may come back to bite the Kings in the postseason, but overall I think they'll still be firmly in the mix for a top-3 spot in the division.

4. Seattle Kraken (WC1) - The Kraken return mostly the same roster that brought them to their inaugural playoffs last season. They lost a handful of depth pieces in Morgan Geekie, Daniel Sprong, and Ryan Donato, and with them a decent bit of depth scoring. However, full seasons from Andre Burakovsky and Eeli Tolvanen plus a step forward from Matty Beniers should help mitigate that, and younger players like Kailer Yamamoto, Tye Kartye, and Shane Wright filling those vacated forward spots means their impressive depth will remain mostly intact. The defense pretty much the same; Brian Dumoulin replaces Carson Soucy, and I think Dumoulin will provide much of the same defensive solidity without as many backbreaking penalties/turnovers. Goaltending looks more solid now after Philipp Grubauer found his form, but it's still a potential weak spot; it'll be up to Gru to see that it isn't. Personally I believe talk of regression is a bit overblown; the Kraken's score by committee approach helps guard against a step back from any individual massively hurting the team as a whole, and in any event several of their returning players actually underperformed their career shooting percentages. The Kraken may lack a true star, but their virtually unparalleled depth and ability to roll four quality forward lines and three capable defensive pairings is a real weapon. They're basically the same team as they were last year, and I predict they end up in a similar position standings-wise this year.

5. Calgary Flames (WC2) - The Flames were the most difficult team for me to rank in this exercise; depending on what moves they make, they could probably finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th in the division this year. I think if they stand pat, a change in coaching will lead to a rebound from the roster, which clearly has talent; conversely, a selloff of their pending free agents could lead to them falling out of the playoff race entirely. Right now, I have them in firm contention for the playoffs and landing the second wild card spot, but this could change massively depending on how the rest of their offseason plays out.

6. Vancouver Canucks - The Canucks should be better than they were last year, a reduction in team drama will help with that. Adding talent will also help, and Canucks did add some pieces such as Teddy Blueger, Carson Soucy, and Ian Cole that should make them at least somewhat more competitive. However, I still don't think there's enough complementary pieces here around their core to make them a playoff team; forward depth will likely be a weakness unless their youngsters step up, and the defense in particular looks pretty rough.

7. Anaheim Ducks - The Ducks nearly took Troy Terry to arbitration today for some reason, but right under the bell wisely signed him long term at a manageable cap hit. They made a handful of veteran additions in Alex Killorn and Radko Gudas, which when combined with steps forward from their young players should help them bank a few more wins. However, their major defensive prospects are still a year or two away, and in the meantime they still need to find somebody with a pulse to keep the seat warm. They'll probably be a fun team to watch with some talented young forwards and a tire fire of a defense, but not very competitive. I think the Ducks will start off on a bit of a hot streak before falling back to earth, selling at the deadline, and ending up near the bottom of the division.

8. San Jose Sharks - Whether they like it or not, the Sharks are deep in a rebuild now. Their major contributors from years past are aging, they're only just starting to restock their prospect pool, and their goaltending tandem might just be the shakiest in the whole division, which is saying something. The Sharks' offseason is still not complete, with the specter of an Erik Karlsson trade looming, which will help them rebuild but make them even worse in the short term. I predict they'll be a major player at the deadline, with players like Alexander Barabanov and potentially Nico Sturm and Mario Ferraro netting them some quality returns, but performance-wise finish in the basement of the Pacific.


No, no, no, your reasoning for putting both Seattle AND Calgary above Vancouver is absolutely idiotic. Dumoulin is a clear downgrade on Soucy, and there is no reason to believe that the Kraken's "by committee" strategy is going to translate to the same degree of success that it had last year, because if it did, then why hasn't a deep hockey team that didn't have a superstar talent or two ever won a Stanley Cup? Next, we're all overestimating how good Calgary actually is. Huberdeau isn't likely to get back to being a 100+ point winger, he's probably closer to an 80 point winger, just because Sutter is no longer there doesn't mean the flames are going to get back to their 21-22 form, especially with the distractions of certain core players futures being uncertain. Lastly, you heavily underestimate Vancouver's forward group, they have a stronger forward group than both Seattle and Calgary, and they finally have a competent backend, suggesting otherwise is lunacy
Aug. 3, 2023 at 3:52 a.m.
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1. Vegas
2. LA
3. Edmonton
4. Seattle (WC)
5. Vancouver (WC)
6. Calgary
7. Anaheim
8. San Jose
Aug. 3, 2023 at 4:15 a.m.
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Quoting: Knuckl3s
No, no, no, your reasoning for putting both Seattle AND Calgary above Vancouver is absolutely idiotic. Dumoulin is a clear downgrade on Soucy, and there is no reason to believe that the Kraken's "by committee" strategy is going to translate to the same degree of success that it had last year, because if it did, then why hasn't a deep hockey team that didn't have a superstar talent or two ever won a Stanley Cup? Next, we're all overestimating how good Calgary actually is. Huberdeau isn't likely to get back to being a 100+ point winger, he's probably closer to an 80 point winger, just because Sutter is no longer there doesn't mean the flames are going to get back to their 21-22 form, especially with the distractions of certain core players futures being uncertain. Lastly, you heavily underestimate Vancouver's forward group, they have a stronger forward group than both Seattle and Calgary, and they finally have a competent backend, suggesting otherwise is lunacy


There was a time when I thought Soucy was capable of handling a top four role, but he never took that step. Last year with the Kraken, he was mostly solid in a bottom-pairing role, but every so often would take an ill-advised penalty or turn the puck over in the defensive zone, which cost the team a couple of games. Seattle moved on from Soucy for a reason. Having watched him the last couple of years, putting Soucy in a top four spot is asking for trouble. Dumoulin didn't have the greatest season in Pittsburgh last year, but he was playing in top four minutes with the Penguins. In Seattle he'll have a much more sheltered role. Dumoulin is still a capable defender and doesn't commit nearly as many of those backbreaking mistakes, which is more of what the Kraken need. I don't see him as more than a minimal downgrade from Soucy at worst, and in any case, he's mainly here as a placeholder until Ryker Evans is ready.

As for the forward corps, I'm genuinely curious why you think Vancouver's forward group is better than Seattle's and Calgary's. Personally, I think the opposite, and here's my reasoning. Seattle doesn't have the elite forward talent Vancouver does, but looking beyond the top two or three guys the Kraken's forward group is much deeper and more well rounded. I recommend checking out an article that breaks down the Kraken's scoring from last season in depth; the link is posted below. Basically, many of the forwards who outperformed their career shooting numbers departed in free agency, and many of those who are still in Seattle underperformed their expected shooting to varying degrees. As a result, there is reasonable room for an uptick in these players' numbers, several of whom were already among the Kraken's leading scorers anyway. For the "overachievers" who are still with the Kraken, namely McCann and Tolvanen, they are known for their wicked shots, which means it isn't unreasonable that they will continue to have a higher than average shooting percentage. Consequently, I don't think the Kraken's scoring will regress as everyone expects. Comparing Seattle and Vancouver's offseason moves, the Kraken lost fourth line contributors Geekie, Sprong, and Donato, essentially replacing them with Wright, Kartye, and Yamamoto. Vancouver on the other hand didn't lose anyone of note but only added Blueger. Keep in mind that Seattle outscored Vancouver last season and finished well clear of them in the standings. Sure, replacing most of a fourth line is a risk for a team like the Kraken who relies on its fourth line more than other clubs. But looking at both rosters and the moves they've made, Seattle hasn't lost enough nor has Vancouver added enough to close the gap between them from last year as things stand.

https://soundofhockey.com/2023/08/01/will-the-kraken-regress-in-shooting-percentage-this-season/
Aug. 3, 2023 at 10:47 a.m.
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Quoting: KrakenTheCode
There was a time when I thought Soucy was capable of handling a top four role, but he never took that step. Last year with the Kraken, he was mostly solid in a bottom-pairing role, but every so often would take an ill-advised penalty or turn the puck over in the defensive zone, which cost the team a couple of games. Seattle moved on from Soucy for a reason. Having watched him the last couple of years, putting Soucy in a top four spot is asking for trouble. Dumoulin didn't have the greatest season in Pittsburgh last year, but he was playing in top four minutes with the Penguins. In Seattle he'll have a much more sheltered role. Dumoulin is still a capable defender and doesn't commit nearly as many of those backbreaking mistakes, which is more of what the Kraken need. I don't see him as more than a minimal downgrade from Soucy at worst, and in any case, he's mainly here as a placeholder until Ryker Evans is ready.

As for the forward corps, I'm genuinely curious why you think Vancouver's forward group is better than Seattle's and Calgary's. Personally, I think the opposite, and here's my reasoning. Seattle doesn't have the elite forward talent Vancouver does, but looking beyond the top two or three guys the Kraken's forward group is much deeper and more well rounded. I recommend checking out an article that breaks down the Kraken's scoring from last season in depth; the link is posted below. Basically, many of the forwards who outperformed their career shooting numbers departed in free agency, and many of those who are still in Seattle underperformed their expected shooting to varying degrees. As a result, there is reasonable room for an uptick in these players' numbers, several of whom were already among the Kraken's leading scorers anyway. For the "overachievers" who are still with the Kraken, namely McCann and Tolvanen, they are known for their wicked shots, which means it isn't unreasonable that they will continue to have a higher than average shooting percentage. Consequently, I don't think the Kraken's scoring will regress as everyone expects. Comparing Seattle and Vancouver's offseason moves, the Kraken lost fourth line contributors Geekie, Sprong, and Donato, essentially replacing them with Wright, Kartye, and Yamamoto. Vancouver on the other hand didn't lose anyone of note but only added Blueger. Keep in mind that Seattle outscored Vancouver last season and finished well clear of them in the standings. Sure, replacing most of a fourth line is a risk for a team like the Kraken who relies on its fourth line more than other clubs. But looking at both rosters and the moves they've made, Seattle hasn't lost enough nor has Vancouver added enough to close the gap between them from last year as things stand.

https://soundofhockey.com/2023/08/01/will-the-kraken-regress-in-shooting-percentage-this-season/


Soucy is going to have a better D-partner in Vancouver than Seattle, most likely playing with Filip Hronek, who is better than both Borgen and Schultz. Granted, management is also betting to a degree that Soucy can take another step, but at least we can confidently presume he won't have the pressure of doing the heavy lifting on a 2nd pair. There is definitely room for error here, I'm not denying that, but I don't think it can singlehandedly sink the backend considering the other pieces in place. Trust me, Dumoulin is washed, he was not performing well in a top 4 role the past couple of seasons for the Pens, he's very much a downgrade on Soucy. Ryker Evans being Seattle's best D-prospect isn't saying much good either

Looking at Vancouver's forwards, outside of 3C, I honestly don't see how their forward depth is any less balanced than Seattles. They have a top six that's as good as any, and they have somebody who can drive play on the 3rd line from the wing, taking offensive pressure off of Teddy Blueger. Also, Dakota Joshua and Philip Di Giusseppe are more than just bottom six plugs, they've actually proven they can be consistently dependable defensively and be reliable special teams contributors. Not to mention Podkolzin and Hoglander are relatively well-primed for bounce back seasons, as both players showed well in their respective AHL stints. Sure, Seattle might have more scoring from their bottom six, but I don't see enough raw talent in the top six to make a luxury out of it. McCann likely doesn't get 40 goals next year, probably more like 30 something, and Tolvanen is just a one trick pony. Vancouver has been a bubble playoff team that has significantly underachieved the past two seasons, while Seattle has been the same but overachieving instead last season. Both sides must eventually regress up or down to the mean, might as well brace ourselves for it until it actually happens. To be clear, it won't shock me to see Seattle finish ahead of Vancouver, but the gap is definitely closer between the two than it was last year, regardless of which of the two ends up on top
Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:33 p.m.
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1. Edmonton
2. Vegas
3. Los Angeles
4. Seattle (WC)
5. Vancouver (WC)
6. Calgary
7. Anaheim
8. San Jose
Aug. 8, 2023 at 7:22 a.m.
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Quoting: IconicHawk
1. Edmonton
2. Vegas
3. Los Angeles
4. Seattle (WC)
5. Vancouver (WC)
6. Calgary
7. Anaheim
8. San Jose


Personally, my money is on Vegas taking 1st dropping Edmonton down to 2nd, but yeah, I do think 4th and 5th places are a toss up between Seattle and Vancouver
 
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