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Forward Projecting Rooster

Created by: MeetYourMakar
Team: 2024-25 Colorado Avalanche
Initial Creation Date: Oct. 13, 2023
Published: Oct. 13, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
wooooo Toews deal done!
One or both of Girard and Manson will need to move to fit the coming Rants, Byram, Georgiev, LOC and Kovalenko summer
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
3$925,000
3$925,000
3$925,000
3$925,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$800,000
2$800,000
2$800,000
2$800,000
2$800,000
2$800,000
2$800,000
2$800,000
2$800,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$800,000
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
2025
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
2026
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$89,500,000$89,041,250$0$137,500$458,750
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$4,500,000$4,500,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$12,600,000$12,600,000
C
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$6,125,000$6,125,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$7,000,000$7,000,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$4,000,000$4,000,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$9,250,000$9,250,000
RW, C
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$2,500,000$2,500,000
LW
M-NTC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$4,000,000$4,000,000
C, LW
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$896,250$896,250 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$800,000$800,000
LW
UFA
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$870,000$870,000 (Performance Bonus$80,000$80K)
C, LW, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$1,050,000$1,050,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$7,250,000$7,250,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$9,000,000$9,000,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$3,400,000$3,400,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$3,850,000$3,850,000
LD/RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$850,000$850,000
RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$800,000$800,000
G
RFA - 2
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$800,000$800,000
LW, C
UFA

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Oct. 13, 2023 at 12:57 p.m.
#1
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Yeah here come the rooster, yeah you know he ain't gonna die!
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Oct. 13, 2023 at 1:07 p.m.
#2
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Start with moving Manson and let Johansen walk at the end of next season. My guess is if Meyers hasn't done anything at the end of this season to earn more than 2x$800K, the Avs just move on.
Oct. 13, 2023 at 1:13 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: M96N29
Start with moving Manson and let Johansen walk at the end of next season. My guess is if Meyers hasn't done anything at the end of this season to earn more than 2x$800K, the Avs just move on.


Hopefully Ritchie gets 1 AHL yr & then becomes a starter to replace Joey
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Oct. 13, 2023 at 1:30 p.m.
#4
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89.5 is higher than any of the cap projections. Especially unlikely it gets that high with the TV deals in the US on questionable footing.
Oct. 13, 2023 at 1:34 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Byrr
89.5 is higher than any of the cap projections. Especially unlikely it gets that high with the TV deals in the US on questionable footing.


Do some math on H.R.R, where it was pre covid, where it is now and the influx coming in from the ESPN and TnT T.V deals(regional ones don't matter), a 50/50 split will be low 90s
Oct. 13, 2023 at 1:35 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: MeetYourMakar
Do some math on H.R.R, where it was pre covid, where it is now and the influx coming in from the ESPN and TnT T.V deals(regional ones don't matter), a 50/50 split will be low 90s


Or you know...we can listen to the guys who's jobs are to actually do that math with much better information than we have when they tell us projections are for a 87-88 million cap.
Oct. 13, 2023 at 1:41 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: Byrr
Or you know...we can listen to the guys who's jobs are to actually do that math with much better information than we have when they tell us projections are for a 87-88 million cap.


lol, I would rather encourage people to understand the information they're taking in, formulate an opinion and discuss openly. But yes, best not to trouble yourself with things like this...
Oct. 13, 2023 at 1:42 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: MeetYourMakar
lol, I would rather encourage people to understand the information they're taking in, formulate an opinion and discuss openly. But yes, best not to trouble yourself with things like this...


Understanding the information coming in is accounting for stuff like the players escrow that is still being paid off and how that effects cap projections. It's also recognizing you don't stand a chance at knowing what that number is. You clearly don't understand the information you are taking in.
Oct. 13, 2023 at 1:42 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: earl08
Hopefully Ritchie gets 1 AHL yr & then becomes a starter to replace Joey


This will be a fun year to track Ritchie, I think he will need this and next year in the ohl before AHL is an option.
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Oct. 13, 2023 at 2:03 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: Byrr
Understanding the information coming in is accounting for stuff like the players escrow that is still being paid off and how that effects cap projections. You clearly don't understand the information you are taking in.


The escrow debt will be paid off in November, last year H.R.R was 5.7b, up from 5.2B the year prior. Lets assume no growth this season to cover the debt, even though it's only 70m owing. This brings the upper limit to roughly 89.25m. I understand contracts quite well but thanks for your opinion, as wrong as it may be.
Oct. 13, 2023 at 2:24 p.m.
#11
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Edited Oct. 13, 2023 at 2:32 p.m.
Quoting: MeetYourMakar
The escrow debt will be paid off in November, last year H.R.R was 5.7b, up from 5.2B the year prior. Lets assume no growth this season to cover the debt, even though it's only 70m owing. This brings the upper limit to roughly 89.25m. I understand contracts quite well but thanks for your opinion, as wrong as it may be.


Imagine calling Gary Bettman wrong about where the cap projections are for next season. Talk about having no self-awareness. Hell, even the numbers you are pulling up don't align with what Bettman has told us. I have a feeling you are just pulling it all out of your ass. Here's a hint about the numbers the league is using:

'He said the remaining debt is down to about $50 million.

"Very preliminary projection, but we believe the escrow will be paid off in full and the cap will be somewhere between $87 (million)-$88 million for the following year," Bettman said.

That would represent an increase of up to $4.5 million. The cap is $83.5 million this season.

The projected revenue for this season is expected to be about $6.2 billion'

You can see clearly somewhere either the league is wrong or you are wrong. Why would anyone believe its not you?
Oct. 13, 2023 at 3:27 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: Byrr
Imagine calling Gary Bettman wrong about where the cap projections are for next season. Talk about having no self-awareness. Hell, even the numbers you are pulling up don't align with what Bettman has told us. I have a feeling you are just pulling it all out of your ass. Here's a hint about the numbers the league is using:

'He said the remaining debt is down to about $50 million.

"Very preliminary projection, but we believe the escrow will be paid off in full and the cap will be somewhere between $87 (million)-$88 million for the following year," Bettman said.

That would represent an increase of up to $4.5 million. The cap is $83.5 million this season.

The projected revenue for this season is expected to be about $6.2 billion'

You can see clearly somewhere either the league is wrong or you are wrong. Why would anyone believe its not you?


It's well documented how they come up with the salary cap, a middle schooler in N.A could figure it out. I am not calling G.B wrong, I am saying his projection is slightly low. Better to under quote and over deliver in his position. 6.2B would be, due to the 50/50 split, 3.1B divided by 32 which equals an upper limit of 96.875m.
Oct. 13, 2023 at 3:28 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: MeetYourMakar
It's well documented how they come up with the salary cap, a middle schooler in N.A could figure it out. I am not calling G.B wrong, I am saying his projection is slightly low. Better to under quote and over deliver in his position. 6.2B would be, due to the 50/50 split, 3.1B divided by 32 which equals an upper limit of 96.875m.


Ok, so if you can see that the league is projecting the cap a full 7+ million under what you say it should be using your method, can you accept that you are missing something with the method you are using and you should probably re-evaluate how its being used?
Oct. 13, 2023 at 3:32 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: Byrr
Ok, so if you can see that the league is projecting the cap a full 7+ million under what you say it should be using your method, can you accept that you are missing something with the method you are using and you should probably re-evaluate how its being used?


The 6.2B is a number you "pulled out of your ass". Based on what the league has done, I am projecting an upper limit around 90m, only a couple million off, not 7+. I just used 6.2B to give you an example on how the cap is calculated. Do with this what you will. I am not above admiting wrongs, but please provide some proof.
Oct. 13, 2023 at 3:33 p.m.
#15
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Edited Oct. 13, 2023 at 3:41 p.m.
Quoting: MeetYourMakar
The 6.2B is a number you "pulled out of your ass". Based on what the league has done, I am projecting an upper limit around 90m, only a couple million off, not 7+. I just used 6.2B to give you an example on how the cap is calculated. Do with this what you will. I am not above admiting wrongs, but please provide some proof.


The 6.2B number is a literal quote from Bettman at his GM meeting press conference at the start of the month. It's a very recent number from a primary source and the authority on the subject. Given that he is the authority, he also projects the cap to be the 7+ mil below what you think it should be given the same information. How do you explain that massive difference between you and the guys who actually do this?
Oct. 13, 2023 at 3:44 p.m.
#16
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Quoting: Byrr
The 6.2B number is a literal quote from Bettman at his GM meeting press conference at the start of the month. It's a very recent number from a primary source.


Got a link? If that is what he projected, then his projection of H.R.R and the salary cap upper limit do not line up. It is more likely his cap projection claim was tied to the 5.7B that the league has demonstrated it can make and not a lofty projection. This would be 89.062m so actually I was only off by 1m. If he went out and said cap is going up to the high 90s, he would be in deep trouble from owners/gm's/nhlpa if it wasnt the case.
Oct. 13, 2023 at 3:47 p.m.
#17
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Quoting: MeetYourMakar
Got a link? If that is what he projected, then his projection of H.R.R and the salary cap upper limit do not line up. It is more likely his cap projection claim was tied to the 5.7B that the league has demonstrated it can make and not a lofty projection. This would be 89.062m so actually I was only off by 1m. If he went out and said cap is going up to the high 90s, he would be in deep trouble from owners/gm's/nhlpa if it wasnt the case.


https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/video/bettman-gives-update-on-very-preliminary-salary-cap-figures-potential-hike-in-2024-25/?show_id=13373
Oct. 13, 2023 at 3:48 p.m.
#18
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The cap will be a maximum of $87.675M unless the league and the PA agree to remove the CBA rule restricting cap growth to 5% per year. PA would probably love to get that restriction removed and get the cap up to $96.875M based on Bettman's $6.2B HRR number from last summer. But I'd be shocked if the owners agree to lift that restriction entirely. Expect the cap to fall somewhere between those two numbers next year depending on how negotiations between the owners and PA go.
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Oct. 13, 2023 at 3:52 p.m.
#19
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Quoting: bcooke
The cap will be a maximum of $87.675M unless the league and the PA agree to remove the CBA rule restricting cap growth to 5% per year. PA would probably love to get that restriction removed and get the cap up to $96.875M based on Bettman's $6.2B HRR number from last summer. But I'd be shocked if the owners agree to lift that restriction entirely. Expect the cap to fall somewhere between those two numbers next year depending on how negotiations between the owners and PA go.


Good addition, thank you. Im sure this will be a sticking point in the next CBA but it is not just the players asking for cap increase, owners want it too. Based on the contract, the players will soon be drasticallly underpaid.
Edit: It is possible the 5% limit is removed in the next cba meeting, it would be a mutually beneficial trade off for the league to get something it wants out of the players.
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Oct. 13, 2023 at 4:30 p.m.
#20
Novistic
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I honestly think both Girard and Manson go, and the avs bring up Clurman and another eagle
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Oct. 13, 2023 at 4:52 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: Novistic
I honestly think both Girard and Manson go, and the avs bring up Clurman and another eagle


I think Clurman and Hanzel get real looks at nhl roles next season. Big year for Clurman and Malinski in the ahl
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