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What does Montembault cost MTL fans

Created by: oilers9783
Team: 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Nov. 20, 2023
Published: Nov. 20, 2023
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Elliotte Friedman was saying Edmonton has their eyes set on him
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Nov. 20, 2023 at 3:13 p.m.
#26
I Love J Boqvist
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Quoting: F50marco
Those examples you made are literally not even comparable to EDM"s current situation.

Timing of the trades, cap constraints, etc etc make those not comparable. I literally don't know what to tell you if you can't see that.


Vegas, Toronto, and Vancouver all had significant cap constraints.

VGK/Van were offseason moves, similar to early season, but if you want you can compare to the deadline moves for Korpi/Rittich
All teams desperately needed goaltending.

You can say Edmonton is in a worse spot, but it's not nearly enough to make up this gap.

You can get Stolarz dirt cheap when knight comes back up to Florida, or Reimer/Lyon, or a Raanta, or a 6K/Comrie, or a Blackwood/Kaak, or a lankinen or an Ingram/Vejmelka,
Nov. 20, 2023 at 3:20 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: dgibb10
Vegas, Toronto, and Vancouver all had significant cap constraints.

VGK/Van were offseason moves, similar to early season, but if you want you can compare to the deadline moves for Korpi/Rittich
All teams desperately needed goaltending.

You can say Edmonton is in a worse spot, but it's not nearly enough to make up this gap.

You can get Stolarz dirt cheap when knight comes back up to Florida, or Reimer/Lyon, or a Raanta, or a 6K/Comrie, or a Blackwood/Kaak, or a lankinen or an Ingram/Vejmelka,


Once again, I don't know what to tell you. Those are similar, not comparable.
Nov. 20, 2023 at 3:21 p.m.
#28
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Quoting: F50marco
Once again, I don't know what to tell you. Those are similar, not comparable.


Similar situations, similar goalies, similar contracts.

Therefore: comparable trade values.
Nov. 20, 2023 at 3:24 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: F50marco
Once again, I don't know what to tell you. Those are similar, not comparable.


Unless you are offering any actual comparables, the 4 very similar players, situations, and contracts stand as the best basis for what Montembault's value is, somewhere between a 3rd and a 4th
Nov. 20, 2023 at 3:31 p.m.
#30
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Quoting: dgibb10
Vancouver was over the cap, had a goalie coming off injury and the backups sporting 0.870s. That's desperate
Toronto's starting goalie had just gotten hurt going into a playoff run. That's desperate
VGK had a 26 year old with 20 career games, Michael Hutchison, and Brossoit who wasn't ready to play after offseason surgery. That's desperate


You know who isn't desperate? Montreal... They are looking to extend Montembeault, have made crystal clear for almost 2 seasons now that they have no issues keeping Allen, and so far have no issues keeping Primeau as a 3rd string goalie to not lose him on waivers.

EDM is the team scouting the Habs 3 goalies. They are trying to buy in a limited market. So again, is fair market value for Montembeault a 3rd rd pick? Probably. And MTL is supposed to sell him at market value because??.........
Nov. 20, 2023 at 3:34 p.m.
#31
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Quoting: Blazingbat11
You know who isn't desperate? Montreal... They are looking to extend Montembeault, have made crystal clear for almost 2 seasons now that they have no issues keeping Allen, and so far have no issues keeping Primeau as a 3rd string goalie to not lose him on waivers.

EDM is the team scouting the Habs 3 goalies. They are trying to buy in a limited market. So again, is fair market value for Montembeault a 3rd rd pick? Probably. And MTL is supposed to sell him at market value because??.........


Because Montembault is a pending UFA. Bad teams tend to sell those assets before they walk to a contender for free or have to pay UFA prices to keep.
Nov. 20, 2023 at 3:47 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: dgibb10
Because Montembault is a pending UFA. Bad teams tend to sell those assets before they walk to a contender for free or have to pay UFA prices to keep.


Context seems a completely lost concept for you...

MTL are trying to extend Montembeault, and Montembeault has already stated publicly that he wants to re-sign.

...Nah never mind all that, the Habs are bad. So they have to to sell a goalie they want to keep (and who also wants to stay) for 3rd rd pick. Why? well that's just what bad teams do...
Nov. 20, 2023 at 4:09 p.m.
#33
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Quoting: dgibb10
Unless you are offering any actual comparables, the 4 very similar players, situations, and contracts stand as the best basis for what Montembault's value is, somewhere between a 3rd and a 4th


Desmith trade: Prior to season starting no pressure. Makes 1.8M in cap. Habs on record stating "we'll try to move Desmith if possible making the Habs the ones that were desperate, hence the addition of a more expensive Pearson to the deal.

Hill trade: Prior to season starting, no pressure. Made 2.175 in cap.

Korpisalo trade: In season! Good job! Except was part of a bigger trade where you can't exactly decipher the exact value of Korpi himself. Also made 1.3M.

Rittich trade: In season! Good job! Cap hit 1.375M even after retention though. Came in to play backup and be depth only. Monty is better goalie by a mile.


EDM needs a goalie who can be a 1A/1B, who costs less than 1M, who won't cost them an arm and a leg to acquire...... Just looking at cap alone, none of the players you mentioned above would work. So right there the price for a Montembault brings the value up.

As I stated before EDM is in a very precise situation where other trades in history don't quite compare. Are they similar? Sure. Did they have absolutely no cap space to work with and were in 30th in the league 1/4 into the year despite being many ppl's cup favorite? Were in season at a point where very few players are available through trade. With the pressure of mounting that they need a goalie to appease the fanbase and their 2 slumping superstars? ..... No, no they weren't.

This is not apples to apples. Edm is in far worse position trade wise than ALL those teams you used examples for. They can't even wait it out till the TDL to hopefully get a pending UFA on the cheap because it may be too late by that time.

Once again, you are stating similar things, not comparables. There is such a thing as no valid comparable. You can use prior trades as starting points, sure but they are by no means going to ensure equal value in trade.

Quoting: dgibb10
You can say Edmonton is in a worse spot, but it's not nearly enough to make up this gap.


Considering I never mentioned a cost to acquire him, Im not sure you can point to a "gap". I was and have always been pointing to the fact that you simply can't point to a few times goalies were traded and say there that's the comparable.

Just to be clear here, I don't think it'll cost a 1st to get Monty (assuming he's available - MTL is trying to resign him apparently) but if they are expecting to pay 3rd or 4th for a decent goalie option right now they might as well forget about a trade. Its not happening.
Nov. 20, 2023 at 4:19 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: F50marco
Desmith trade: Prior to season starting no pressure. Makes 1.8M in cap. Habs on record stating "we'll try to move Desmith if possible making the Habs the ones that were desperate, hence the addition of a more expensive Pearson to the deal.

Hill trade: Prior to season starting, no pressure. Made 2.175 in cap.

Korpisalo trade: In season! Good job! Except was part of a bigger trade where you can't exactly decipher the exact value of Korpi himself. Also made 1.3M.

Rittich trade: In season! Good job! Cap hit 1.375M even after retention though. Came in to play backup and be depth only. Monty is better goalie by a mile.


EDM needs a goalie who can be a 1A/1B, who costs less than 1M, who won't cost them an arm and a leg to acquire...... Just looking at cap alone, none of the players you mentioned above would work. So right there the price for a Montembault brings the value up.

As I stated before EDM is in a very precise situation where other trades in history don't quite compare. Are they similar? Sure. Did they have absolutely no cap space to work with and were in 30th in the league 1/4 into the year despite being many ppl's cup favorite? Were in season at a point where very few players are available through trade. With the pressure of mounting that they need a goalie to appease the fanbase and their 2 slumping superstars? ..... No, no they weren't.

This is not apples to apples. Edm is in far worse position trade wise than ALL those teams you used examples for. They can't even wait it out till the TDL to hopefully get a pending UFA on the cheap because it may be too late by that time.

Once again, you are stating similar things, not comparables. There is such a thing as no valid comparable. You can use prior trades as starting points, sure but they are by no means going to ensure equal value in trade.



Considering I never mentioned a cost to acquire him, Im not sure you can point to a "gap". I was and have always been pointing to the fact that you simply can't point to a few times goalies were traded and say there that's the comparable.

Just to be clear here, I don't think it'll cost a 1st to get Monty (assuming he's available - MTL is trying to resign him apparently) but if they are expecting to pay 3rd or 4th for a decent goalie option right now they might as well forget about a trade. Its not happening.


300k of cap in season from Monty at 1 vs Korpi/Rittich at 1.3 is worth a 7th round pick swap.
Rittich was the starter in calgary the previous 2 years (nearly 100 starts) pitching a 0.910 and going 51-26-11.

Edmonton has 1.15 mill in cap, 300k lost at some point by replacing the minimum guys with Janmark and Holloway, so 815k. (and once those guys are back they get cap scaling again). Then replacing their current G at 800k gives them space to fit a 1.6 mill goalie. With more space given cap scaling. Let's say anywhere between 1.6 and 2.5. All of those guys are either in that range or get to that range quite easily with retention.

There was no pressure for VGK to make a move?? they were about to go into the season with the only 2 healthy goalies they had being LT (with 20 career games of experience) and Michael Hutchison.

No pressure on Vancouver?? they were about to be not cap compliant and have to have 40 games of 0.870 goalie play
Nov. 20, 2023 at 4:25 p.m.
#35
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Quoting: dgibb10
300k of cap in season from Monty at 1 vs Korpi/Rittich at 1.3 is worth a 7th round pick swap.
Rittich was the starter in calgary the previous 2 years (nearly 100 starts) pitching a 0.910 and going 51-26-11.

Edmonton has 1.15 mill in cap, 300k lost at some point by replacing the minimum guys with Janmark and Holloway, so 815k. (and once those guys are back they get cap scaling again). Then replacing their current G at 800k gives them space to fit a 1.6 mill goalie. With more space given cap scaling. Let's say anywhere between 1.6 and 2.5. All of those guys are either in that range or get to that range quite easily with retention.

There was no pressure for VGK to make a move?? they were about to go into the season with the only 2 healthy goalies they had being LT (with 20 career games of experience) and Michael Hutchison.

No pressure on Vancouver?? they were about to be not cap compliant and have to have 40 games of 0.870 goalie play


Ok I can tell an arguer when I see it. We're not going to agree on water being wet apparently. Have as good one.
Nov. 20, 2023 at 4:28 p.m.
#36
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Quoting: F50marco
Ok I can tell an arguer when I see it. We're not going to agree on water being wet apparently. Have as good one.


I'm simply trying to educate you on how they are very similar situations. No situation is 1 for 1, but this is as close as you can get. 4 Recent, QUALITY comparables for value is rare to find for any asset.
Nov. 20, 2023 at 4:31 p.m.
#37
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Quoting: dgibb10
I'm simply trying to educate you on how they are very similar situations. No situation is 1 for 1, but this is as close as you can get. 4 Recent, QUALITY comparables for value is rare to find for any asset.


Ok thanks for the education I guess? rolling eyes
Nov. 20, 2023 at 5:55 p.m.
#38
realwheels_5
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Hughes has largely leaned towards getting nhl close prospects.. could see a Raph Lavoie and maybe a pick in the 2-4 range. His scoring touch and size could be enough with the habs finishing issues
Nov. 20, 2023 at 6:46 p.m.
#39
Prime Primeau
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Monty is near untouchable so no trade
 
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