Ridiculously Dumb 3 Way - Apologies for Wasting Your Time - CapFriendly

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Ridiculously Dumb 3 Way - Apologies for Wasting Your Time

Created by: Anus_McLeod

Team: 2023-24 Colorado Avalanche

Initial Creation Date: Dec. 21, 2023

Published: Dec. 21, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

I normally don't click posts when I go this far down the rabbit hole, but I thought this was fun (despite not being realistic).

Someone is probably getting hosed here, but I can't figure out who. It's not super easy for me to value Gibson and Mercer. I think the Avs probably need to add or up the prospect, but I'm not going to start over at this point.

Also, Miller and Jones can easily be left out. I included them in case NJ needed a bit of cap space (though I feel like it's still not enough if Dougie returns).

Finally, I don't see why Colorado is in this trade, but they're my team so I'm weaseling in, lol.

Avs
In - Mercer, Miller, Henrique
Out - Johansen, Olausson, Jones, Meyers, 1st, 2nd

Devils
In - Gibson, Jones, Meyers
Out - Mercer, Miller, Vanecek

Ducks
In - Johansen, Olausson, Vanecek, 1st, 2nd
Out - Gibson, Henrique

Trades

COL

NJD

COL

Gibson, John
Henrique, Adam ($2,325,000 retained)

ANA

Johansen, Ryan
Olausson, Oskar
Vanecek, Vitek
2024 1st round pick (COL)
2026 2nd round pick (COL)

COL

ANA

Retained Salary Transactions

Caleb Jones: $375,000 (48.39%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$83,500,000	$78,575,417	$637,500	$400,000	$4,924,583

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Lehkonen, Artturi $4,500,000$4,500,000 LW, RW NTC UFA - 4	MacKinnon, Nathan $12,600,000$12,600,000 C NMC UFA - 8	Rantanen, Mikko $9,250,000$9,250,000 RW, C M-NTC UFA - 2
Henrique, Adam -$868,750-$868,750 LW, C M-NTC UFA - 1	Mercer, Dawson $894,167$894,167 ($400,000$400K) RW, C RFA - 1	Nichushkin, Valeri $6,125,000$6,125,000 RW, LW NMC UFA - 7
Wood, Miles $2,500,000$2,500,000 LW UFA - 6	Colton, Ross $4,000,000$4,000,000 C, LW UFA - 4	Drouin, Jonathan $825,000$825,000 LW, RW UFA - 1
Cogliano, Andrew $825,000$825,000 LW UFA - 1	Olofsson, Fredrik $775,000$775,000 C, LW UFA - 1	O'Connor, Logan $1,050,000$1,050,000 RW, LW UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Toews, Devon $4,100,000$4,100,000 LD UFA - 1	Makar, Cale $9,000,000$9,000,000 RD UFA - 4	Georgiev, Alexandar $3,400,000$3,400,000 G UFA - 2
Byram, Bowen $3,850,000$3,850,000 LD/RD RFA - 2	Malinski, Sam $850,000$850,000 RD RFA - 2	Prosvetov, Ivan $775,000$775,000 G UFA - 1
Girard, Samuel $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD/RD UFA - 4	Manson, Josh $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD NTC UFA - 3

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
MacDermid, Kurtis $987,500$987,500 LD/RD, LW UFA - 1		Landeskog, Gabriel $7,000,000$7,000,000 LW, C NMC UFA - 6
Johnson, Jack $775,000$775,000 LD UFA - 1		Francouz, Pavel $2,000,000$2,000,000 G UFA - 1
Miller, Colin $1,850,000$1,850,000 RD UFA - 1

Taxi Squad
Kiviranta, Joel $775,000$775,000 ($0$0$0$0) RW, LW UFA - 1

Dec. 21, 2023 at 10:25 a.m.

MeetYourMakar

Joined: Feb. 2020

Posts: 2,830

Likes: 2,481

Something a little different, thank you!
Edit: Do the Devils have any interest in moving Mercer?

Anus_McLeod liked this.

Dec. 21, 2023 at 10:32 a.m.

CHAR

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 1,063

Likes: 756

The Ducks aren't taking Johansen so all the rest falls apart and none of the questions around value matter.

Anus_McLeod liked this.

Dec. 21, 2023 at 10:42 a.m.

drambui

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 3,842

Likes: 2,515

gotta love how you gibson back to the ducks.

Anus_McLeod and MeetYourMakar liked this.

Dec. 21, 2023 at 10:46 a.m.

Anus_McLeod

Thread Starter

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 3,604

Likes: 3,468

Quoting: MeetYourMakar

Something a little different, thank you!
Edit: Do the Devils have any interest in moving Mercer?

I doubt they have interest in moving him per se, but I think he's expendable with all their depth (if they get the right return).

Quoting: CHAR

The Ducks aren't taking Johansen so all the rest falls apart and none of the questions around value matter.

I really don't see why the Ducks wouldn't take on Johansen. It's one more year, and they could retain and flip him for value (someone would take him at 2M). It is possible to take out RyJo and Henrique if needed though.

MeetYourMakar liked this.

Dec. 21, 2023 at 10:46 a.m.

Anus_McLeod

Thread Starter

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 3,604

Likes: 3,468

Quoting: drambui

gotta love how you gibson back to the ducks.

Ha ha, oops.

MeetYourMakar liked this.

Dec. 21, 2023 at 11:26 a.m.

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 12,686

Likes: 3,382

Edited Dec. 21, 2023 at 11:44 a.m.

Gibson at his full 6.4 mill is not a positive asset.

Take out Mercer and the devils accept, maybe

Dec. 21, 2023 at 11:31 a.m.

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 12,686

Likes: 3,382

Quoting: MeetYourMakar

Something a little different, thank you!
Edit: Do the Devils have any interest in moving Mercer?

Mercer and Toffoli are guy's I'd be open to moving for the right pieces. John Gibson is not one of those pieces, especially at the full 6.4 mill where I wouldn't even claim him on waivers.

Mercer: 2 1sts of value (more than the dach and newhook deals).
Toffoli: 1st+3rd

In terms of pieces I'd be looking for.
A legit valuable Goalie, not one on the wrong side of 30 with the 3rd highest cap hit in the league, who's been mediocre for a half decade

Swayman, Gustafsson, Saros, Logan Thompson. And based on the trade markets for top 6 22 year olds vs the trade market on goalies, NJD wouldn't be the ones adding in those deals if Mercer was involved.

Or: A legit shutdown LD with term:
a guy like Marcus Pettersson

Dec. 21, 2023 at 11:51 a.m.

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 12,686

Likes: 3,382

The devils are the team getting hosed

Mercer is a 22 year old top 6 winger/center. He currently makes 900k. If he was a UFA he'd get offered 7x7 with ease, probably more. (Nazem Kadri got 7x7 for his age 32-39 seasons, would you rather have Kadri from ages 32-39 or mercer from ages 22-29). He will be able to be locked in at 900k+5x6 because of his RFA control

That's about 18 mill in surplus value.

Gibson is an average starter, probably around the 15th-20th best goalie in the league on the wrong side of 30. If he was a UFA he probably doesn't get more than 5, 5.5 mill x4.

That is somewhere between NEGATIVE 4-6 mill on gibson.

It would take 3 1st round picks to bridge that gap in value imo.

Dec. 21, 2023 at 11:59 a.m.

Anus_McLeod

Thread Starter

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 3,604

Likes: 3,468

Quoting: dgibb10

I'm not huge on Gibson either, but that view is not shared universally. The Devils are reportedly interested, and the price is said to be pretty high.

I will say that I think Gibson would be much better if he went elsewhere. He has been downright great in the past when he had better support. And while I may not think his value is this high, I'm basing it off reports on the ask and what the market seems to be.

Dec. 21, 2023 at 12:09 p.m.

#10

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 12,686

Likes: 3,382

Edited Dec. 21, 2023 at 12:21 p.m.

Quoting: Anus_McLeod

I've seen the trades fitzy as made vs what the rumours were.

Apparently it was the 2nd overall pick for Josh Anderson lol
Apparently we were going to pay Nemec++++ for Meier

Nothing the devils have done suggests trading significant assets for an expensive 30+ year old goalie is something fitzy wants to do.

Especially not at the price of Mercer, who again, was not on the table for Timo Meier.

If you do see a trade for Gibson, it will be with more retention and less assets.

Think
Vanacek+1st+Stillman for Gibson with 2.4 mill retained.

And even then I'd rather throw those assets+ more at FIlip Gustafsson. He's younger, cheaper even with retention, and better.
Vanacek+1st+2nd+Stillman for Filip Gustafsson is the offer I'd make before

Anus_McLeod liked this.

Dec. 21, 2023 at 12:30 p.m.

#11

CHAR

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 1,063

Likes: 756

Quoting: Anus_McLeod

Would much rather use that 4M in cap space to target a UFA winger capable of playing in the top 6. Between Henrique's 6M and Silfverberg's 5M coming off the books the Ducks have 11M to take a shot at basically any UFA that they want.

Best case Johansen plays in the middle six where the team already has Killorn, Strome and Vatrano. Worst case he's a bottom six guy taking ice time away from a younger guy.

If you take out Johansen and Henrique this turns into a 2-way trade between NJ and Anaheim for Gibson. Which is what it should be so that's good I guess.

Anus_McLeod liked this.

Dec. 21, 2023 at 12:33 p.m.

#12

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 12,686

Likes: 3,382

Quoting: CHAR

NJD won't be taking gibson without retention.

1st+Vanacek+Stillman for Gibson at 4 mill.

Dec. 21, 2023 at 2:34 p.m.

#13

MeetYourMakar

Joined: Feb. 2020

Posts: 2,830

Likes: 2,481

Quoting: dgibb10

Problem is the big question mark about his next rfa deal this summer.

Dec. 21, 2023 at 2:37 p.m.

#14

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 12,686

Likes: 3,382

Quoting: MeetYourMakar

Problem is the big question mark about his next rfa deal this summer.

Mercer deal can be whatever you want or need it to be. Making him a fit everywhere
You can take him year by year with 1 year deals and hold his rights
You can give him 3 years on cheap AAV and still hold his RFA rights after. (if you're trying to go all in)
You can give him the full 8 years at probably 6 mill maximum (if you're rebuilding)
You can give him 6 years and buy down the AAV a bit. (if you're a more long term contention window)

Dec. 21, 2023 at 2:40 p.m.

#15

MeetYourMakar

Joined: Feb. 2020

Posts: 2,830

Likes: 2,481

Quoting: dgibb10

That isn't how it works with guys who put up 50 points in a season on their elc. He could be asking for 6m or something the Avs can't afford. I did not see you traded Johanson, that makes his next deal a lot easier to figure out.

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