2024 Devils

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: TGSCraig

Team: 2024-25 New Jersey Devils

Initial Creation Date: Jan. 2, 2024

Published: Jan. 2, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

I still think it's more likely we trade for or sign a goalie this offseason than going all in during the season when all teams think they have us over a barrel. I think Ullmark/Swayman is probably the most likely place the Devils will look, with the possibility of a retained Markstrom or Gibson also floating out there.

Here's the reality: even with the cap going up, Luke is going to get mega-paid the way he's playing this year. Jack has been very clear that every player should get their checks, so I don't think Fitz will be able to convince Luke to take the same contract as Jack. It's likely that the FLOOR on the deal is the 8.3 AAV/8yrs that Owen Power got, and it could get pricier than that. McLeod's deal getting much richer leaves us with not a lot of cap flexibility next year. Especially if they're also planning on trying to bring back Toffoli short term. It probably means also having to bridge Mercer, or move him/let Toffoli walk.

For the sake of argument, I'm going to say we trade Holtz and Vanecek's 1 year remaining for a goalie, along with a pick. I think Ullmark is more likely to shake loose than Swayman due to his age. So Holtz, Vanecek at half retained+a 2nd for Ullmark, who has one last season at 5 AAV. This gets the Devils Ullmark for about 6.70 million against the cap next year, and then maybe they sign a 2-3 year extension at 6 million AAV. The benefit to the Bruins: they get a young top 6 forward in Holtz who isn't even extension eligible next year, and they get the cap flexibility to sign Swayman to the long term extension he's earned, while moving Ullmark during the last year of his deal as he turns 31 and you're a bit nervous about a long-term extension at this price tag with an aging team.

In this scenario, we probably still have to trade Palat for salary relief to be able to fit Luke's extension in, even with the cap expanding in 2025 too (and .7 million of Ullmark/Vanecek coming off the books).

Novak is a stand-in for some depth UFA forward type in 2024, like the Tierney/Nosek model the Devils have used recently, to fill out the roster.

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST		YEARS	CAP HIT
Casey, Seamus		3	$925,000

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Daws, Nico	2	$875,000
McLeod, Michael	4	$3,500,000
Schmid, Akira	3	$1,500,000
Foote, Nolan	1	$875,000
Mercer, Dawson	3	$4,000,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Novak, Thomas		1	$775,000
Toffoli, Tyler		2	$4,406,667

Trades

NJD

Ullmark, Linus

BOS

Holtz, Alexander
Vanecek, Vitek ($1,700,000 retained)
2025 2nd round pick (NJD)

Retained Salary Transactions

Vitek Vanecek: $1,700,000 (50%)

Recapture Fees

Ilya Kovalchuk: $250,000

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$87,700,000	$88,463,897	$1,538,897	$5,100,000	-$763,897

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Toffoli, Tyler $4,406,667$4,406,667 RW, LW UFA	Hughes, Jack $8,000,000$8,000,000 C UFA - 6	Bratt, Jesper $7,875,000$7,875,000 RW, LW NMC UFA - 7
Meier, Timo $8,800,000$8,800,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 7	Hischier, Nico $7,250,000$7,250,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Mercer, Dawson $4,000,000$4,000,000 RW, C RFA
Palat, Ondrej $6,000,000$6,000,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 3	Haula, Erik $3,150,000$3,150,000 C, LW NTC UFA - 2	Lazar, Curtis $1,000,000$1,000,000 RW, C UFA - 1
Foote, Nolan $875,000$875,000 LW RFA	McLeod, Michael $3,500,000$3,500,000 C RFA	Bastian, Nathan $1,350,000$1,350,000 RW UFA - 1
	Novak, Thomas $775,000$775,000 C UFA - 3

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Siegenthaler, Jonas $3,400,000$3,400,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 4	Hamilton, Dougie $9,000,000$9,000,000 RD NMC UFA - 4	Ullmark, Linus $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
Bahl, Kevin $1,050,000$1,050,000 LD RFA - 1	Nemec, Simon $918,333$918,333 ($3,250,000$3M) RD RFA - 2	Schmid, Akira $1,500,000$1,500,000 G RFA
Hughes, Luke $925,000$925,000 ($1,850,000$2M) LD/RD RFA - 1	Marino, John $4,400,000$4,400,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 3	Daws, Nico $875,000$875,000 G RFA
	Casey, Seamus $925,000$925,000 RD RFA - 3

Jan. 2 at 5:17 p.m.

#51

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 13,132

Likes: 3,541

Quoting: BruinsWoahWoah

Goalies don't go for much because teams with goalies as good as Ullmark don't trade them? We can agree that Kuemper is the best comp to Ullmark based on age, contract circumstances, and performance. Kuemper was only available because he was playing for the perennial bottom dwelling Coyotes.

IMO the only credible point you bring up is his playoff performance. His age, system goalie (he was good on a terrible Buffalo team), starter workload (he would play more if Sway wasn't so good and has played 40+ games every season in Boston.. to put this in perspective Carter Hart and Demo have played in 120/121 regular season games since 2021. Ullmark has played in 108. Are Hart/Demko not starters?), and NTC are irrelevant because it wouldn't factor into negotiations with NJD. I don't think he is becoming obsolete in Boston - I am sure the Bruins would be happy to bring him back next season to keep Swayman fresh. Having two elite goaltenders in a huge advantage for Boston.

Bruins are doing just fine with their Top 6 Cs.... they are neck and neck with the Rangers for best record in the league. Coyle has stepped up well to fill the 2C role, Poitras is looking like he will develop into a Top 6 C, they have a few intriguing center prospects, and Pasta is proving that it doesn't matter who the 1C is because he is so dominant... that line has produced whether Zacha was centered the line or Morgan Geekie who has suddenly turned into a PPG player in the last month since moving up to 1C.

Also goalies like Ullmark hit the market very often. It’s where all these comps come from.

Guys in the top 10-15 hit the market quite often (Gustafsson, Saros, Swayman, vasy, Shesty, Sorokin, helle, Oetter, demko, etc)

Jan. 2 at 5:19 p.m.

#52

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 13,132

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Quoting: BruinsWoahWoah

IMO Swayman is not available and likely signs long-term this offseason with some NTC protection for somewhere in the neighborhood of $6M AAV. According to CapFriendly, his closest comparable is Oettinger at $4M AAV so give him the extra $2M per year, no trade, and long-term security. Bruins would be able to keep Ullmark for another season and let him play out his deal and see if he will re-sign for a discount if no offers are compelling to move him. Even with $12M tied up on goalies, Boston has the cap flexibility to sign a big $9M+ FA this offseason.

The fact that you think Swayman only gets 6 mill on an 8 year deal shows the lack of value that NHL goaltenders have these days.

You can’t say they don’t get money in free agency and then say a 5 mill goalie of a lower tier is worth a haul as a 1 year rental. And then claim you can resign him at a reasonable rate.

Either he’s an elite goalie who gets an 8+ mill deal in UFA, or he isn’t worth a massive package via trade

Jan. 2 at 5:29 p.m.

#53

Celtics21

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 4,683

Likes: 1,565

Edited Jan. 2 at 5:36 p.m.

Quoting: dgibb10

If you want to not sell to the East, enjoy the 2nd from LAK. Because that’s the only suitor out west.

Quoting: dgibb10

If that’s the case, you should fire your GM. 10 to 15? In what universe? You going to completely disregard last year? At this point, I don’t believe you actually think this and are just trying to win an argument. Some of your takes are bordering on assanine.

When has Gustavsson become a premium goalie? He’s definitely the most interesting younger goalie to acquire because of circumstance, but Ullmark has been considerably better the past 2 years. I feel this might be a “most reasonable possibility inflated for my position.

I’m glad NJ hasn’t been able to secure a goalie. One less team to worry about

Jan. 2 at 5:35 p.m.

#54

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

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Quoting: Celtics21

Again. I’d rather have Saros, Helle, Igor, Sorokin, Oettinger, Demko, Swayman, Gustafsson, vasy, Adin hill next year than Ullmark.

You can argue about a few other goalies.

Why would I fire Fitzy? He built a fantastic roster out of the scraps he started with. Goalies are the most volatile position in Hockey. So far he’s given us quality goaltending last year, and we haven’t hit the trade deadline this year.

If you try and charge a massive ridiculous price, Car and NJD move on. They both have shrewd GMs who aren’t gonna get ripped off.

That leaves who? Edmonton is 100% on his NTC.

The only other team I see is LAK. And if they’re the only team in the realistic market, they set the price. Not the team trying to sell their second goalie.

But hey if you want to take less to keep Ullmark out of the conference, go ahead.

Jan. 2 at 5:39 p.m.

#55

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

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Quoting: Celtics21

The state of goaltending in the league isn’t very good. The question is who’s on his NMC and whether an extension would adjust his mindset.

The two teams in the East that I would require a premium in a trade would be Carolina and NJ. They are the strongest teams with the weakest goaltending.

If that’s the case, you should fire your GM. 10 to 15? In what universe? You going to completely disregard last year? At this point, I don’t believe you actually think this and are just trying to win an argument. Some of your takes are bordering on assanine.

When has Gustavsson become a premium goalie? He’s definitely the most interesting younger goalie to acquire because of circumstance, but Ullmark has been considerably better the past 2 years. I feel this might be a “most reasonable possibility inflated for my position.

I’m glad NJ hasn’t been able to secure a goalie. One less team to worry about

Gus was fantastic last year and this year has been very good lately. He’s much younger than Ullmark so I have much more faith.

I’d rather have him than Ullmark in a heartbeat. And would pay much more for him than Ullmark

Jan. 2 at 5:40 p.m.

#56

BruinsWoahWoah

Joined: Nov. 2022

Posts: 914

Likes: 399

Quoting: dgibb10

Very few goalies make more than $6.5M... IMO Sorokin set the market when he signed his 8 year $8.25M AAV deal this year.

Swayman could be amenable to taking a discount to stay in Boston and continue playing with Ullmark, Original 6 Franchise, with a core group that is relatively young and should contend for awhile. Team gives him term/pays him early/adds no movement protection to get a discount. Swayman could accept an 8 year deal at $6-6.5M... he is a pending RFA and under team control through at least 2025. Sorokin was a pending UFA. Swayman (barring winning the Vezina this year) also does have as good of a resume as Sorokin when he signed the deal.

Jan. 2 at 5:41 p.m.

#57

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 13,132

Likes: 3,541

Quoting: BruinsWoahWoah

Very few goalies make more than $6.5M... IMO Sorokin set the market when he signed his 8 year $8.25M AAV deal this year.

IMO Swayman would be amenable to taking a discount to stay in Boston and continue playing with Ullmark, Original 6 Franchise, with a core group that is relatively young and should contend for awhile. Team gives him term/pays him early/adds no movement protection to get a discount. Swayman could accept an 8 year deal at $6-6.5M... he is a pending RFA and under team control through at least 2025. Sorokin was a pending UFA. Swayman (barring winning the Vezina this year) also does have as good of a resume as Sorokin when he signed the deal.

So what you’re saying is that league wide, goaltenders simply aren’t valued as highly as other positions?? Hmmm interesting

That as a UFA swayman would get sub 8 mill?

Jan. 2 at 5:44 p.m.

#58

Celtics21

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 4,683

Likes: 1,565

Quoting: dgibb10

Again. I’d rather have Saros, Helle, Igor, Sorokin, Oettinger, Demko, Swayman, Gustafsson, vasy, Adin hill next year than Ullmark.

You can argue about a few other goalies.

Why would I fire Fitzy?

Statistically Ullmark has been better than multiple goaltenders on that list. Curious to see how many of those guys are available for what NI would offer? The one I see is an obvious pursue is Gus, but my guess is two (maybe three) are guys teams would entertain trading for the right price,

If acquiring an goaltender is as easy to do as you suggest, why hasn’t your GM done ir? Maybe because it isn’t easy and you are pointing to conditions which don’t exist for teams with goalie depth to drive a price pressure which is non existent

Jan. 2 at 5:46 p.m.

#59

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 13,132

Likes: 3,541

Quoting: Celtics21

We did acquire a goalie who led us to the playoffs (further than Boston) and played quality doing it.

Goaltending is fickle as you should have learned when looking at all the absolute random goalies playing fantastic this year and when your “best tandem in hockey” fell apart in a playoff series.

Jan. 2 at 5:55 p.m.

#60

BruinsWoahWoah

Joined: Nov. 2022

Posts: 914

Likes: 399

Quoting: dgibb10

So what you’re saying is that league wide, goaltenders simply aren’t valued as highly as other positions?? Hmmm interesting

That as a UFA swayman would get sub 8 mill?

If Swayman was a UFA, I think he gets north of $7M but less than $8M on the open market... just like Jack Hughes would have gotten more than $8M AAV if he was a UFA when he signed his extension. Players take less to get paid early.

Goalie contracts are less than skater contracts yes...

Jan. 2 at 5:56 p.m.

#61

Celtics21

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 4,683

Likes: 1,565

Swayman went from .715 to .745 in goals saved over expected per 60. That’s elite. Few goaltenders are hitting that level consistently,

Ullmark has moved down .883 (which is historically obscene) to .472, which isn’t that far off of Helly and Igor last year. Hes been .250 to .300 higher than Gus for the past two years on a stat that adjusts for danger chances.

Go ahead and call him a backup all you want. It’s not convincing anyone who has an asset to give one up. If you can acquire a premium goaltender, I’ll be curious to see the price.

BruinsWoahWoah liked this.

Jan. 2 at 5:59 p.m.

#62

Celtics21

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 4,683

Likes: 1,565

The team that beat you convincingly got swept by the team who came back on us. So what? Injuries happened and Montgomery handled it poorly. Should have let Ullmark heal.

Injuries can happen. Is that your rationalization for going with crappy players during the regular season. You’ll rest Akira Schmid to the point where he may be competent again?

Jan. 2 at 6:01 p.m.

#63

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

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Quoting: BruinsWoahWoah

Goalie VALUES are less than skater values yes…

It’s become very clear. And not only are they less than skater’s, they’re less than what goalies used to get

Goalie trade returns: down
Goalie draft positions: way down
Goalie contracts: down

When GMs across the league show you exactly how they value goalies with their money and their assets, you should listen

Jan. 2 at 6:02 p.m.

#64

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

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Quoting: Celtics21

You lost to Bobrovsky who didn’t even play all that well in the series. He was great vs Toronto, DOMINANT vs Carolina, after being bad all regular season.

Goaltending is once again fickle.

Jan. 2 at 6:04 p.m.

#65

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

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Quoting: Celtics21

Yes, Swayman is elite. Hence why I’ve been willing to pay an elite goalie price for him.

Ullmark had 1 outlier year and then fell apart in the playoffs. His play before and after that 1 singular year isn’t even close to it. But I believe he’s a near top 10 goalie, and so I’d pay near top 10 goalie rental prices for him.

You simply don’t like the reality of what the history of goalie trades says those guys cost

Ig I should also buy Freddy Andersen. He was analytically out of those world in 21-22.

So was Jacob Markstrom.

Or Charlie lindgren and Cam talbot and quick this year.

Jan. 2 at 6:07 p.m.

#66

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

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Quoting: Celtics21

I’d move for a mrazek type, let Vanacek get right. Once you’re in the playoffs you count on the dominant lineup to carry you and then average goaltending behind it.

Jan. 2 at 6:15 p.m.

#67

BruinsWoahWoah

Joined: Nov. 2022

Posts: 914

Likes: 399

Quoting: dgibb10

No one said goalie values aren't going down... you are just way off in your valuation of what it would cost to acquire good goaltending. Teams take goaltending for granted until their goalies don't perform and they are desperate for it (see EDM, NJD, CAR, TOR, etc.)... all should be contenders but are held back because they don't prioritize goaltending and try to outscore their opponents instead of playing a two-way game.

I would argue the goalie contracts are going down because the days of starter's playing 60 games a year are gone. Most successful teams have two solid goaltenders.

Jan. 2 at 6:19 p.m.

#68

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

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Quoting: BruinsWoahWoah

Vegas paid a 4th round pick for their cup winning goalie. Goaltending is just fickle. Theres no guarantee that Ullmark remains good in a new system or even in the same system next year.

But a year where the top goalies mostly consist of guys who were cheap to acquire this past offseason doesn’t convince me that paying large draft assets is the solution.

Jan. 2 at 6:21 p.m.

#69

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

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Quoting: BruinsWoahWoah

I believe Swayman is elite. I would pay an elite price for him (Mercer even tho in terms of pure value that’s likely an overpay due to positional value and age).

I believe Ullmark is just outside of the top 10 goalies. And so I would pay that price for 1 year of him.

Jan. 2 at 7:42 p.m.

#70

Celtics21

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 4,683

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Quoting: dgibb10

Vegas paid a 4th round pick for their cup winning goalie. Goaltending is just fickle. Theres no guarantee that Ullmark remains good in a new system or even in the same system next year.

Your GM isn’t as good as Vegas’s in identifying goalie talent.

Just as a heads up … Ullmark was still at .267 in the playoffs for Goals Saved Above Expected per 60, which is better than Gustavsson’s numbers now in the season. It was pretty much known he was dealing with a hip injury at the same time,

Vanecek still sucked with the worse metrics among all goalies with over 5 starts and still a negative, 1.1 goals per game not saved vs expected.

Either way, good luck on your goalie search. Hope you find a competent one or can recover Schmid who showed potential last year

Jan. 2 at 7:46 p.m.

#71

Celtics21

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 4,683

Likes: 1,565

Quoting: dgibb10

I believe Swayman is elite. I would pay an elite price for him (Mercer even tho in terms of pure value that’s likely an overpay due to positional value and age).

Is Mercer really an elite price? Hes a very good young player with upside. He’s kind of returned to form from his rookie year after what appeared to be a jump. I like him, but I don’t think he’s in the ballpark of a Swayman offer that I’d do.

I thought of him as last years version at one point when this was first brought up. I’d love him on my team, but I’m starting to see why you believe you can get him for a bridge deal.

Jan. 2 at 7:52 p.m.

#72

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

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Quoting: Celtics21

Mercer despite the devils having a full 4 years of RFA control likely gets a similar contract to Swayman this offseason.

That says all you need to know about how they’re valued league wide. Money talks.

Swayman is a goalie.
Mercer is an upcoming highly productive first time RFA 22 year old. Even not very productive first time RFAs get hauls. Look at Dach and Newhook and Nils

Teams like bargains in salary and upside and control.

But if you don’t like enough maybe a 3 team offer where you get some of the proceeds from a Mercer sale and we get Swayman. Because Mercer is the type of asset that gets a haul

Jan. 2 at 8:56 p.m.

#73

Celtics21

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 4,683

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Quoting: dgibb10

Every Boston fan has said no to a Swayman for Mercer deal. Swayman’s metrics are those of a dominant player. Not trading him for a player with Mercer’s statistical profile.

There are certainly more comparables out there for forward vs goalies, which drives price. Also, most great goalies are locked into long contracts ASAP if cap permits and second line forwards get more minutes

I’m expecting Swayman to be extended before end of season. Sweeney didn’t force the second year option primarily to get through this year’s cap issues

Jan. 2 at 9:05 p.m.

#74

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

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Quoting: Celtics21

Nothing you said had anything to do with value. Most Boston fans refuse to move Swayman because they think there’s a haul waiting out there for Ullmark that I don’t believe exists.

If the market for Ullmark is weak and the market for Swayman is strong, Swayman may very well be the one to go

And if it’s Mercer specifically you have a problem with, he can be shopped elsewhere for assets you may want more.

Because all 30 teams in the NHL need a Mercer. Versatile, can play 3 forward positions, can be signed long term and be a fantastic bargain in 3 years for a rebuilder or be signed short term and be a fantastic bargain immediately for a contender while still controlling his rights after. Fantastic production already in his young career while still able to grow and develop. Has yet to miss a game in his NHL career. Ironman.

Every team in the league needs a Mercer

Jan. 2 at 9:10 p.m.

#75

TGSCraig

Thread Starter

Joined: Feb. 2023

Posts: 71

Likes: 10

I really wish dgibb would stop derailing every single thread about the devils on this forum with a string of nonsense posts about how goalies aren’t valuable or whatever

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