Why would Vancouver do this? No thanks

Oh I don't know I guess teams go all in.

What if you re-sign Guentzy?

Pens would want more. A blue chip prospect would need to be added.

The same reason they have a bunch of other former pens on the team. What team wouldn’t want a 40 goal scorer making only 6 million? Well 3.5 million in this case.

No way. The Penguins aren't going to get more than that, Vancouver isn't going to offer this.

Guentzel is worth a 1st + prospect/early pick.

DeBrincat is one comparable and he only went for a 1st + 2nd + 3rd / 1st + two young roster players while being several years younger and RFA; Fiala as an RFA went for a 1st + blue-chip prospect as a Top-30 scorer. Horvat earned a 1st + blue-chip prospect + 5th as a UFA rental and had more goals and points than Guentzel did, plus being a center.

I think the Debrincat and Fiala comparisons are a little disingenuous. All 3 of their trades were in the offseason. Players cost more at the deadline. Additionally, the trade to Ottawa was for the 7th overall pick - Vancouver doesn't have any futures worth 7OA IMO - and the trade to Detroit was after a down year, which lowered Debrincat's value.

As for the Horvat deal, at the time of the deal, Horvat was playing at a 52 goal, 90 point pace instead of a usual ~30 goal, ~65 point pace. Guentzel has been consistently on pace for at least 35 goals and 75 points - usually more - for 6 seasons. Players that can score that highly with that much consistency are few and far in between. Horvat hadn't proven he could do that consistently when he was dealt. Neither had Timo Meier.

And look at the forwards that have gotten a 1st + a 2nd or more at the deadline in the past couple years. Tanner Jeannot, Andrew Copp, Brandon Hagel, Ryan O'Reilly, Timo Meier. Copp and ROR were rentals. And I get that part of Jeannot and Hagel is Tampa not caring about the future, but they're still worth bringing up. None of Jeannot, Copp, or Hagel have held a candle to the type of season that is Guentzel's status quo.

If Jake is available and Vancouver doesn't offer a king's ransom, someone else probably will.

Copp and a 6th for 1st (30th), 2nd (55th), Barron, and 5th. Barron was not a blue-chip prospect, he was a 23-year old AHLer.

That's very similar to

Horvat for 1st (17th), Raty, 5th. Raty was a high-ranked prospect who'd done well at WJC and AHL at 20 y/o,

It would cost more than a 30th and 55th to move up to 17th.

O'Rielly, Accari, and a 4th round prospect for 1st (25th), 2024 2nd, 3rd (76th), career AHLer, 4th round prospect

Again, that's very similar to the Horvat trade.

Would you want 25th, 2024 2nd, 76th, recent 4th round pick, and a career AHLer, or 17th, top-50 prospect, 5th round pick?

Again, it comes back to this: Guentzel isn't worth more than these other players.

You can expect a 1st + blue chip prospect + late pick/cap dump/roster player OR 1st + 2nd + low-tier prospect/late round pick + cap dump/roster player

The team I see Guentzel going to is VGK

They have a lot of their assets, and need a guy like this

You realize the price was leaked on what it would take the Pens to trade Guentzel right? It's a 1st, a good prospect, and a roster player. The Pens don't need to trade him. Their 1st line with Crosby and Guentzel is one of the best in the league at 5 on 5 play .

I think VGK, Vancouver, Seattle, Colorado, and Winnipeg. I know NYI are rumored to be in the mix as well, but I doubt they trade him in the same division.

The reported asking price is likely a 1st + blue chip propsect + NHL player

For Van that would likely be: 1st, top 3 prospect, and Kuzmenko (Hoglander would likely also work if Van could shed salary somewhere else).

If they don't want to pay that, totally fine. The Pens will either keep Guentzel or someone else will pay.

Guentzel is a top end talent, that isn't cheap.

Okay, so same thing that Horvat was traded for. 1st + Podkolzin + Aman. I'd do that.

I don't think Copp or ROR are all that similar to Horvat or Guentzel in value. Both of those were a late 1st and a 2nd. Horvat was a mid 1st and a blue chip prospect.

If there's a difference of a dozen or more spots in the first round, that's a pretty big difference. I can only find a few instances of a trade between 1sts more than a few spots apart in the past couple years. Detroit gave Dallas a mid 2nd and a 5th to move up 8 spots to draft Sebastian Cossa. And Arizona gave up an early and a mid 1st to move up 16 whole spots for Connor Geekie. The 30th and 55th pick from the Copp deal might not get you just the 17th pick in the Horvat deal.
As for Raty, what would the average Vancouver fan want in return for him if they had to trade him? A late 1st? A 2nd? Probably more than the 55th pick.

I think it's reasonable to see the Horvat trade basically as a mid-1st, a late-1st, and a roster player. Copp and ROR were basically A late 1st, a mid/late 2nd, and some low value assets. And I think there's a pretty significant difference in those two returns.

Vancouver is already one of the best teams in the league right now. I think adding a player with Guentzel's caliber makes them a definite cup favorite. So I'm predicting Vancouver's '24 1st will be a late 1st. Hoglander just turned 23, and that's around when players tend to plateau. Hoglander's a decent 3rd liner IMO, but I'm skeptical of his ability to be much more than a decent middle six guy and I never considered him a blue-chip prospect.
I'm expecting a Horvat-esque return for Guentzel if he moves. I don't think the one in this post is a Horvat-esque return.

I agree, I think the one in this post would be of higher value than the return Horvat got. 1st + 2nd + Hoglander >>> 1st + Raty + Beauvillier.

That's why I suggested 1st + Podkolzin + Aman; it meets the criteria that the Guentzel rumors state; 1st rounder + good prospect + NHL ready roster player. The 1st is a 1st, Podkolzin is a top prospect, Aman is a U23 NHL-ready forward and is signed to a very team-friendly contract the next two seasons.

No, you don't agree. I've been arguing that 1st + Raty + Beauvillier >>> 1st + 2nd + Hoglander given the context of each asset, and that it isn't that close.

Ah, okay? As someone who watches both Canuck teams regularly, I would strongly say that's not the case at all. Hoglander is a much better player than Raty, he's on pace for 20 goals playing in the bottom six, he was playing regularly in the NHL at 19, and Beauvillier was a cap dump moved for a 5th, far less than a 2nd is worth.

But I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth, if you think that's the better value I'll gladly do 1st + Raty + 5th for Guentzel.