What the Leafs so desperately need is a top notch d-man who's good at everything.

Can defend really well, had good physicality, skates well, has good offense and can play ideally 22 minutes + per night.

Tanev is the closes thing to that. Great defensive numbers the last 3-4 years, he's just old

Glad we can agree. Peeke sucks and too early to move Jenner. Maybe next year or the year after but not with 3 years left.

Weegar would be the number one target from Calgary. But odds are he is not moved.

Larsson was going to be my target since Seattle was super far out of a playoff spot. And then they won 4 billion games in a row....

I'm glad we've come to an agreement on Parayko. We don't want to move him and the Leafs don't want him anymore. That was a good time.

The rumour was Toronto was asking about him years ago when Pietrangelo was on the team back when Parayko was putting up great 2RD numbers, Toronto fans haven’t yet realized he’s regressed since and isn’t the guy we should be targeting.

Weegar is great. Great numbers. I guess the downside is his massive contract until hes what, 38? I’d still like to add him though.

37. That is a downside. But I would add him despite that also.

I think Jenner could be somebody CBJ sells (not this year though). Gives more room for Fanta and Sillinger to grow in the middle and whatever other young centers they continue to add after this year.

Don’t get me wrong, I think he wouldn’t be a bad add for Toronto, but the consensus is that CBJ fans say he wont be moved and I don’t think toronto should drop a massive package on a guy who we’d throw in the 3C position.

He hasn't regressed. The team around him has MAJORLY regressed and he's been asked to do 5 times as much. He looks fantastic this year for what it's worth. Issues with basing judgements solely off of advanced analytics is that systems and team quality play a major role in them.

I can assure you that 90% of Blues fans are thrilled to have Colt signed long term at 6.5.

stockholm syndrome

i swear it was like every 10 seconds theres a new leafs agm roster trading for parayko... delusional.

Leafs or Oilers. And then there’s a loud group that comes in claiming that Parayko is awful. And then there’s 0 blues fans that want to move him. Same cycle over and over.

All these guys are better then 5 of the 6 Defensemen Toronto ices every night

the same 2 dudes making mock trades for Parayko don't make up the whole fanbase. most of us know he's fallen off since he was behind pietro and isn't worth that albatross contact.

if blues fans feel different, keep him. we dont want him

Not awful, just regressed. Even if the team around him has too, his individual stats have along with it. He's not the kind of guy you put up front 22+ minutes a night in every situation. Though, he'd make a good 2RD behind a real number 1RD. But, for that contract until he's 37 and how often DFD's regress into their 30's I absolutely want no part of having him on my team

He’s currently doing that with very good results with one of the worst top 4 defensemen in the league paired with him in matchup situations.

Currently has a 58% EV defense rating (individual). not awful, but not good. He's trended downwards the last 3-4 seasons and it's risky for Toronto to trade for somebody who's already 30, regressing, and signed until he's 37.

You want an ACTUAL 1RD who can play in all scenarios on a bad team and STILL post great individual metrics? You look at Weegar. Same contract issues but has not at all regressed even if the Flames have. He's not going anywhere, but he's the guy I'd want.

Again, the same two guys making plenty of Parayko mock trades don't make up how the rest of us feel. Most of us aren't interested

How is that calculated?

"Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) is a method for evaluating skater performance that seeks to improve on the known issues with on-ice metrics (such as raw on-ice Corsi For %, etc.). Raw on-ice skater ratings are inherently impacted by the teammates a player plays with, the opponents they play against, a player’s percentage of zone starts in the offensive or defensive zone, back to back games, etc. There are many aspects of the game that players have no control over. The goal of RAPM is to control for these aspects and provide a better measure of a player’s offensive or defensive ability.

RAPM seeks to account for all these factors by using a statistical technique called linear regression (specifically, a regularized linear regression called ridge regression). This allows us to control for all teammates, opponents, score state, zone starts, etc. at the same time further increasing the accuracy of a specific player’s rating. The method can be used at various strength states and for various metrics. On Evolving-Hockey, we provide 2 strength states (EV & PP/SH) with 3 separate metrics (Goals, Expected Goals, and Corsi). Each regression is run for each season and players are separated by team (traded players are split into multiple versions of themselves – one version for each team they played for in each season)."

So it’s mainly based on Goals, xG and Corsi?

https://evolving-hockey.com/glossary/regularized-adjusted-plus-minus/

The site lists all the variables.

These seem heavily weighted on xGa, xG and Corsi. All of which cannot be individualized.

There's a difference if you're specifically looking at RAW numbers like xG and Corsi because they have more weight on how the team is performing. But when you funnel the raw numbers into a system where you control quality of comp, quality of teammates, minutes played, deployment, etc, you can create EV defense and EV offense percentiles based on similar players in the same roles and situations.

You're just taking the numbers and putting them into percentiles based on how that player has individually performed vs his counterparts.

The issue I have is all of those variables are dependent on 2 things. Teammattes and schemes.

For instance, Corsi I mainly shots for while on ice vs shots against. The Blues are bottom 5 in the league of shots taken. Meanwhile the flames are 7th.

Nick Leddy Paraykos primary partner has taken 42 shots this season.

Rasmus Anderson has taken 95. Over double.

I’m not trying to knock Weegar by any means, but to outline how these things are not exactly as independent as possible and are reliant on teammattes and overall game plans.

I quite like Weegar as a player.

But pair that with Paraykos 35% ozs versus Weegars 53% and that Calgary doesn’t have to push the Weegar Anderson pair out there every time a superstar comes in to town because they have a Hanifin, Tanev pairing. You can see where stats don’t tell the full story.

I’m not trying to advocate Toronto or Edmonton should trade for Parayko. I’m not trying to advocate that the last 2 years of Paraykos deal may not look so great. What I’m trying to advocate is that there is a loud group whenever it comes to Parayko and it’s mainly in the analytics community that isn’t getting the full picture.