Quoting: HockeyNM1510
This must have been a lot of work. However, there is no way the cap is rising 3 million a year. Thinking like that has the Blackhawks where they are now. The Big 3 are being underpaid. There is no way that the Leafs can afford Tavares and Matthews, two potential 10 million players AND another two 7+ million players.
As the guy who made this - I'll be the first to admit that its never going to happen.
That being said, we definitely have the assets to make both the Klingberg & Landeskog trades happen (or similar ones) - without losing any of our core players or top prospects. This is especially true if management chooses to to trade our expiring contracts at the deadline for the next couple years (only player that aren't in the long term plan). I don't see this happening if we're in playoff contention, but management should do it anyways & let some rookies fight for playoff experience. Bozak, Komarov, Marleau, Hainsey, Marincin, Marchenko, Soshnikov, D.Moore, Martin, McElhinney, B.Smith, Fehr etc. - would net us a combo of like ten 1st or 2nd round picks if they were packaged at the deadline with some low-end prospects & late round picks.
1) Cap growth - I agree, 3 million a year is too optimistic. It'll likely be around 2 million or less & be closer to 80 million in 2020-21.
2) The big 3 contracts - I disagree that they're underpaid above (most people seem to be on your side though). You have to look at comparables though. Example: Johnny Gudreau got 64 points as a rookie, then 78 points in 79 games (with 30 goals) in his 2nd year & then signed that summer (2016) for a $6,750,000 AAV x 6 Years. It took a point per game to earn that contract & the salary cap was basically the same. Who knows if any of our big 3 will get a PPG this season. I assume at least one of them will - but if no one improves their point totals I could see Marner / Nylander at $6,000,000 x 5 years & Matthews at 7.5 million x 6 years (mostly thanks to his position & intangibles). If they improve at everything & each add 20 points to last years totals this year - I could see them all getting max terms with Marner / Nylander between $7-8,000,000 & Matthews between $8-9,000,000. There's only 4 players in the league with an AAV at $10,000,000 or more. Three of signed long term for less than they were worth, won stanley cups & got rewarded for it in their late twenties. The other just won the Heart, Ted Lindsay & Art Ross trophies & got 100 points. Lou's not giving Matthews $10,000,000+ unless he wins the heart this year - though he may get a 2 year deal to try & earn it.
3) Tavares contract - The comparable is Stamkos signing for an $8,500,000 AAV last year (with a hometown discount). He likely turned down offers over $10,000,000 though. In terms of their market values - Tavares has the edge defensively, but Stamkos averages 10-15 more points per season, has lead his team deeper in the playoffs & is probably worth $500,000 more, all things being equal. Someones going to offer Tavares $10,000,000+ but there aren't many competitive teams with that much cap space. My guess was that he'd take hometown discount between $8-9,000,000 & stay on the Island, but they keep trading players for picks & look to be getting worse. If he wants a cup I bet he'll take $9,000,000 from a contender, which could be his hometown Leafs.
SIDENOTE: If he actually does sign with the Leafs under market value - I can't imagine Matthews wanting more than Tavares right afterwards - though he may get a matching AAV if he has an amazing season.