Trying to find a Zegras trade that de-risks the trade for Anaheim

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Created by: jonh514

Team: 2023-24 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: Feb. 7, 2024

Published: Feb. 7, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Trades

MTL

Zegras, Trevor

Additional Details:

Habs get a player who is undeniably a top 6 forward

ANA

Farrell, Sean
2024 1st round pick (MTL)
2026 2nd round pick (MTL)

Additional Details:

1st pick is 6-10 OA which responds to the higher-end talent of Zegras

Farrell is a smaller body skill forward. He'll never be Zegras, but with the right patience he can turn into a heck of a middle 6 player. Just to clarify, he's my favorite Rocket forward and I think his NHL career is guaranteed, while I am not sure about a guy like Roy.

2nd round pick in 2026 is really to offset the risk that neither of these players work out, which I think is a very low risk

Comparable I am using is Kevin Fiala vs Brock Faber (when he was in junior and still a "maybe") and a late 1st.

Buyouts

Karl Alzner: $833,333

Retained Salary Transactions

Joel Edmundson: $1,750,000 (50%)
Jeff Petry: $2,343,750 (50%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
24	$83,500,000	$81,500,416	$1,170,000	$3,977,500	$1,999,584

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Caufield, Cole $7,850,000$7,850,000 LW, RW UFA - 8	Suzuki, Nick $7,875,000$7,875,000 C UFA - 7	Gallagher, Brendan $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 4
Pearson, Tanner $3,250,000$3,250,000 LW UFA - 1	Evans, Jake $1,700,000$1,700,000 C UFA - 2	Anderson, Josh $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 4
Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW, RW RFA - 2	Gignac, Brandon $775,000$775,000 C UFA - 2	Armia, Joel $3,400,000$3,400,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Pezzetta, Michael $812,500$812,500 LW, RW UFA - 2	Condotta, Lucas $775,000$775,000 C, LW UFA - 2	Slafkovsky, Juraj $950,000$950,000 ($3,500,000$4M) RW, LW RFA - 2
	Zegras, Trevor $5,750,000$5,750,000 C, LW RFA - 3	Ylönen, Jesse $775,000$775,000 RW, LW RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Matheson, Michael $4,875,000$4,875,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 3	Savard, David $3,500,000$3,500,000 RD UFA - 2	Allen, Jake $1,925,000$1,925,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Harris, Jordan $1,400,000$1,400,000 LD/RD RFA - 2	Kovacevic, Johnathan $766,667$766,667 RD UFA - 2	Montembeault, Samuel $1,000,000$1,000,000 G UFA - 1
Struble, Jayden $867,500$867,500 ($57,500$58K) LD RFA - 2		Primeau, Cayden $890,000$890,000 G RFA - 2
Guhle, Kaiden $863,333$863,333 ($420,000$420K) LD/RD RFA - 2
Xhekaj, Arber $828,333$828,333 LD/RD RFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
	Dvorak, Christian $4,450,000$4,450,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 3
	Dach, Kirby $3,362,500$3,362,500 C, RW RFA - 3
	Newhook, Alex $2,900,000$2,900,000 C, LW RFA - 4
	Wideman, Chris $762,500$762,500 RD UFA - 1

Feb. 7 at 8:21 a.m.

MONSTER1974

Joined: Apr. 2017

Posts: 844

Likes: 180

That trade makes sense, but I wouldn’t do it until the draft. By then, we’ll know where we stand with the rank of our selection and which players would be available. I think if players like Demidov or Lindstrom are still available when we pick, then we keep the pick. If the elite offensive talent is gone, then I’d consider this dral.

jonh514 liked this.

Feb. 7 at 8:45 a.m.

jonh514

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Quoting: MONSTER1974

I am assuming they go 2-4...

Feb. 7 at 9:32 a.m.

Bcarlo25

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de-risking would be including an NHL player, not an AHL question mark.

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Feb. 7 at 9:40 a.m.

MTLaveragefan

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I don't know - the talent in that top 7 is very good! But I admit that instead of getting Helenius or Catton, I would go for Zegras.

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Feb. 7 at 9:41 a.m.

jonh514

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Quoting: Bcarlo25

de-risking would be including an NHL player, not an AHL question mark.

I think it's a fair criticism, but I would counter with 3 points:

1) This was not the case with the Fiala deal. Faber was a risky prospect, and this is a vast overpayment on that deal.

2) I added a 2nd to counter-balance the possibility that Farrell doesn't make it.

3) Caufield, Suzuki, and Slaf are off limits and there are no other forwards of interest currently on the Habs (take your pick if you find one!) Do you want a defenseman instead? Xhekaj, Harris, Struble, Barron are all available, but we may need to drop the 2nd.

Feb. 7 at 9:42 a.m.

jonh514

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Quoting: MTLaveragefan

I don't know - the talent in that top 7 is very good! But I admit that instead of getting Helenius or Catton, I would go for Zegras.

Zegras has had 2 seasons like the one Caufield is "currently" having... and with worse linemates. Think about that!

Feb. 7 at 9:56 a.m.

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

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Quoting: jonh514

Was "de-risking," cited in the Fiala trade? I get the sense that for the most part, that isn't really important to teams. They know they're getting lottery tickets.

Honestly I don't think Zegras is very good. I would stay away, but if you're dead set on trying to deal for him I would just be going with winnipegs pick, montreals 2nd, and some middle prospect.

Feb. 7 at 10:17 a.m.

jonh514

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Quoting: Bcarlo25

He IS very good.

CHAR liked this.

Feb. 7 at 10:30 a.m.

CHAR

Joined: Jun. 2022

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Quoting: jonh514

I think it's a fair criticism, but I would counter with 3 points:

1) This was not the case with the Fiala deal. Faber was a risky prospect, and this is a vast overpayment on that deal.

In the Fiala trade Minnesota was completely hamstrung by their cap situation. They a) couldn't afford to pay Fiala who needed a new contract and b) couldn't afford to take back any other NHL salary in return. Their leverage to negotiate a trade was greatly reduced by these things.

Zegras has a reasonable contract and the Ducks have more cap space than almost any one in the league. Your comparable falls apart some what in my mind.

Feb. 7 at 10:34 a.m.

#10

CHAR

Joined: Jun. 2022

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Quoting: Bcarlo25

Honestly I don't think Zegras is very good. I would stay away, but if you're dead set on trying to deal for him I would just be going with winnipegs pick, montreals 2nd, and some middle prospect.

That doesn't get you Zegras though. In the 2019 draft class he ranks 6th in games played, 3rd in points and 5th in goals scored. And that's with this season being a total write off. The kid has elite talent and just needs a good coach and good team structure to maximize his strengths.

Feb. 7 at 10:36 a.m.

#11

Bcarlo25

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Quoting: CHAR

I think not getting Zegras would be a good thing. I think he's one-dimensional, and won't be contributing to a winning hockey team without a major change to his game.

Feb. 7 at 10:36 a.m.

#12

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

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Quoting: jonh514

He IS very good.

nah. not really. one trick pony and the trick isn't special. i wouldn't want him on my team.

Feb. 7 at 11:21 a.m.

#13

jonh514

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Quoting: CHAR

Except that this is a vast overpayment on that deal.

Who was traded in recent years on pure talent that is a better comparable?

Feb. 7 at 11:38 a.m.

#14

Jded

Joined: Jun. 2016

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Change Farrell to Beck, Ducks agree this doesn’t happen until the draft and only if one of Verbeek’s ‘my guys’ are available. My guess is that that’d be Levshunov/Lindstrom

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Feb. 7 at 11:43 a.m.

#15

jonh514

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Quoting: Jded

Change Farrell to Beck, Ducks agree this doesn’t happen until the draft and only if one of Verbeek’s ‘my guys’ are available. My guess is that that’d be Levshunov/Lindstrom

Farrell is gonna be a better NHL player than Beck. Are you sure?

Habs accept the compromise in my opinion, though I suggest draft Lindstrom if available.

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Feb. 7 at 12:08 p.m.

#16

Jded

Joined: Jun. 2016

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Quoting: jonh514

Farrell is gonna be a better NHL player than Beck. Are you sure?

Habs accept the compromise in my opinion, though I suggest draft Lindstrom if available.

Admittedly, I haven’t seen much of either. But just knowing Verbeek, the 5’9 forward will not be preferred

Also, kudos on actually putting together a thoughtful offer here

Feb. 7 at 2:01 p.m.

#17

CHAR

Joined: Jun. 2022

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Quoting: jonh514

Except that this is a vast overpayment on that deal.

"Vast" is a stretch. With Hindsight we know now that Faber is getting plenty of Calder talk in the same year that Connor Bedard is a rookie. But even at the time of the trade he was a NCAA kid chosen to represent the US at the Olympics. He was a top notch prospect then as much as he is today.

Farrell is "meh". You clearly like him. I like him a lot less. A 2nd round pick three drafts from now is also a long way off to get excited about.

I think the overall offer here is good enough to strongly consider, but I really don't think you are blowing the Ducks doors off.

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Feb. 7 at 2:04 p.m.

#18

jonh514

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Quoting: CHAR

Then the offer sounds right! A deal is supposed to be painful for both sides, not an obvious win for one or the other.

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