Quoting: BleedOrange23
Bert only had 14 points by last year's deadline because he only played in like 28 games. The Wings got a 1st last year because he was coming off a 60 pt season. It also doesn't help his value if a team in playoff contention and looking to buy wants to trade him.
For Lily, he has had to play up in the lineup because of injuries. He is a 4/5 at best, has yet to play close to a full NHL season and is due a new contract. People need to stop bring up Frost being benched. That was because he held out and it was only very early in the season. He had a heart to heart with Torts and has been on fire since. His ceiling is a 2nd line center and that is much more valuable that a #4 defenseman.
In regards to Walker, just about every analyst or article has mentioned that Philly wants a 1st for Walker. Jeff Marek just had this in a recent article. He did mention that they would consider a high 2nd and a prospect.
Agree that his value could be impacted by WHO is selling. Saying he's worse this year than last year is just wrong tho. You have to consider that he isn't playing on the PP this year.
Last year when he was traded, at 5v5 he had 8 points in 29 games (.27 points per game). This year at 5v5 he has 18 points in 52 games (.35 points per game).
He's also playing less than last year 16:30 per game vs 15:43. And he isn't getting the offensive zone starts. His most common start now is in the neutral zone (19% of his shifts), last year it was the Offensive zone where he started 18% of shifts down to 15% this year. His penalty differential, expected goals, expected goals against are all better this year than last year (even including his time in Boston).
We could debate it forever but the numbers for Bert back him being worth at least as much as last year if not more. I think GMs trade for him because of his combination is skill/grit moreso than just his pure numbers. Toronto definitely isn't putting him in a position to succeed. His best work comes in front of the net on the PP and Tavares has that spot and is arguably the best in the league there.
For Lili, the numbers just don't back the hate for him. Every analytics model has him as a dominant two-way D. He plays slightly sheltered minutes (against middle 6 opponents) but he wins those minutes consistently. I think he also gets hate cause people think he's fully developed. He's 24 like the same age as Noah Cates' rookie season. Most D don't peak until 26-29. He's still got the potential to become a #2, look at Hanifin, Andersson even for Phili someone like Sanheim and how much they were bashed when they were 22-26 I'd argue all of them are top 2D now. This doesn't even factor in that he lost over a year of playing to mono so his development is likely a bit behind the rest of his draft class most of whom are just breaking into the league.
Anyways my point is that I get where you are coming from I just disagree with some of the valuation. I think you might be right on my undervaluing Frost/Walker as well tho. And I do believe Frost can be a top 6 guy, from an outsiders perspective it seems the flyers undervalue him but that could be a faulty perspective.