Screw it we ball

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: tjk

Team: 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers

Initial Creation Date: Feb. 14, 2024

Published: Feb. 20, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Some trades I think we should make:

1. Dumping Ceci and Brown for cap flexibility and picking up a depth forward in the process. I'm assuming the cost to "dump" both is a 2nd and 3rd. And we could get a depth forward as part of that. Realistically these deals could happen anywhere, just let me know if you think that is an undervaluation on my part. Also, I mentioned that I'm not sure how bonuses get impacted by trades. The cost to dump Brown could be a 4th if we keep the cap (that would be a pure depth swap). Or we could just waive him. I just really like Entwistle and have been trading him to the Oil in ACGM's for what feels like 2 years now.

2. Guentzel first, Tanev second. I think getting Guentzel is more of a need than Tanev. From what I've read that's gonna cost like a 1st, 3rd, NHL player, and prospect. Not sure there, so let me know Pens fans. I'm sure a lot of you don't want to trade him but if they did what is a realistic return?

Tanev I just don't think will get traded to the Oilers, I would like him but I doubt Calgary does that. Pivot options could be Carrier or Seeler. I think a 2nd and 4th gets him. I added a prospect and another 4th because it is a Calgary-Oilers trade so a bit sweeter for Calgary. But still, I don't see it as "realistic".

3. Then the Dowd trade does not "need" to be done but I'd like to see it. My thoughts are he's probably worth a 1st since the Monohan trade. And it could be a way for us to get picks back. Although then maybe it's not exactly fair. This one seems the worst in my opinion, probably because it's an afterthought to me so I didn't think about it much. But if we could get a depth forward with 2 years left on his deal for a trade-down, I think we should do that. that's kind of the gist of what I am thinking. So in that sense, it could be anyone, not just Dowd.

- - - I know Oilers fans likely won't like these trades. I don't really care about your opinions so much as I care about other fanbases. No offence just being in the market I hear so many dog**** takes I'm numb to it.

- - - There will be concerns about not having picks. I don't think it's that big of an issue if we trade depth in the off-season for them (like Kulak or maybe even Broberg), and also convert in the UDFA/College FA class. Also, we are getting out of money so we would have roughly 9 mil to spend on a Drai extension and off-season FA additions. And realistically we are keeping Bourgy, Petrov, Broberg, and Akey. Those seem like the guys who will come out of the system to me, missing out on 3 to 4 players of that level is fine by me.

Trades

EDM

Entwistle, Mackenzie

CHI

Brown, Connor
2026 2nd round pick (EDM)

Additional Details:

Not sure what the price is or if the bonus would carry over to Chicago's cap next year. My thought is if the bonus does carry over than trade him for a 2nd for Entwistle. CHI can afford the cap next year and it kind of makes sense for them.

If the bonus goes to Edmonton's cap regardless next year then change the pick to a 4th next year. Entwistle is still an upgrade to me over Brown.

All this to say, I'm high on Entwistle, and always have been, love the complete. And I'm not quite sure how the bonus overage may change with a mid-season trade.

EDM

SJS

Ceci, Cody
2025 3rd round pick (EDM)

Additional Details:

Cap dump. Not sure price. Let me know.

EDM

Guentzel, Jake ($3,000,000 retained)

PIT

Foegele, Warren
Lachance, Shane [Reserve List]
Lavoie, Raphael
2024 1st round pick (EDM)
2026 3rd round pick (EDM)

Additional Details:

I think this is similar to recent deals we have seen (Lindholm). Although I think the contract on Foegele is more valuable than Kuzmenko and Lavoie is maybe a slightly worse prospect.

Add depth prospect in LaChance. But yeah I don't know I think this is pretty fair for a half-season rental.

Would Pens fans prefer Bourgault to Lavoie? I think Lavoie is a better player.

EDM

Tanev, Christopher ($2,250,000 retained)

CGY

Tullio, Tyler
2024 2nd round pick (EDM)
2025 4th round pick (EDM)

EDM

Dowd, Nic
2024 3rd round pick (BOS)
2025 3rd round pick (WSH)

WSH

2025 1st round pick (EDM)

Buyouts

James Neal: $1,916,667

Buried

Jack Campbell: $3,850,000 ($5,000,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$83,500,000	$78,341,667	$850,000	$975,000	$5,158,333

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan $5,125,000$5,125,000 LW, C NMC UFA - 6	McDavid, Connor $12,500,000$12,500,000 C NMC UFA - 3	Hyman, Zach $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW NMC UFA - 5
Guentzel, Jake $1,500,000$1,500,000 LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 1	Draisaitl, Leon $8,500,000$8,500,000 C, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 2	Kane, Evander $5,125,000$5,125,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 3
Holloway, Dylan $925,000$925,000 ($650,000$650K) LW, C RFA - 1	McLeod, Ryan $2,100,000$2,100,000 C RFA - 2	Perry, Corey $775,000$775,000 ($325,000$325K) RW UFA - 1
Entwistle, Mackenzie $800,000$800,000 LW, C RFA - 1	Dowd, Nic $1,300,000$1,300,000 C UFA - 2	Janmark, Mattias $1,000,000$1,000,000 LW, RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Ekholm, Mattias $6,000,000$6,000,000 LD/RD UFA - 3	Bouchard, Evan $3,900,000$3,900,000 RD RFA - 2	Skinner, Stuart $2,600,000$2,600,000 G UFA - 3
Nurse, Darnell $9,250,000$9,250,000 LD NMC UFA - 7	Tanev, Christopher -$1,125,000-$1,125,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 1	Pickard, Calvin $762,500$762,500 G UFA - 1
Kulak, Brett $2,750,000$2,750,000 LD/RD UFA - 3	Desharnais, Vincent $762,500$762,500 RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Gagner, Sam $775,000$775,000 RW, C UFA - 1
Ryan, Derek $900,000$900,000 C, RW UFA - 2

Feb. 20 at 1:02 a.m.

ChiHawk

Joined: Apr. 2017

Posts: 19,352

Likes: 9,849

Brown is a UFA after the season isn't he? Doubt it costs much to dump him. Hawks like Entwistle and Reese johnson, but I could see one of them being moved as they are a bit redundant, but neither are terribly expensive to acquire, probably a 4th or 5th.

Hawksguy81, tjk and PaulKorea liked this.

Feb. 20 at 7:28 a.m.

Victor24

Joined: Mar. 2023

Posts: 2,813

Likes: 956

Edmonton doesn't have the top prospects and NHL player the Pens would want so they would have to go middle ground with both.
Guentzel for
1st, Holloway, Bourgault
Retention would cost a 2nd or Broberg

Maybe Dubas sells him for less but I don't see any Oilers as blue chip prospects. So three B+ propects might do it.

Feb. 20 at 8:06 a.m.

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,173

Likes: 7,792

1. Brown's bonus has already been paid out by Edmonton so the bonus cap hit is their's irrespective. So trading a 2nd to "dump" a player making league minimum is silly. Send him to the minors, send a 5th to Chicago for Entwistle.
2. Ceci is not a cap dump. He has played the 24th most minutes v Elites of any defenseman in the league over the past 2.5 seasons and has kept his head above water with a 51.8 xGF% at 5v5. He gives full effort every single night and makes just $3.25M.
3. Guentzel was barely an upgrade on Foegele pre-injury and we don't know how he'll perform post-injury. Plus he played over 90% of this TOI with Crosby while Foegele's most common center was Ryan McLeod. Why is Edmonton adding prospects & picks? Guentzel is a rental they won't be able to re-sign.
4. I think the trade value is about right, not convinced the target is though.
5. If 1st minus two 3rds is about the same value as a 2nd, why not just trade a 2nd? I don't think it's wise to give up a 1st for a 4th liner, even if he's a good one.

Oilers_29 and tjk liked this.

Feb. 20 at 10:06 a.m.

Hawksguy81

Joined: Nov. 2022

Posts: 9,186

Likes: 11,205

The Oilers have paid Brown his bonus, so Edmonton has to account for it. Hawks accept Brown and a 4th for Entwistle.

tjk and PaulKorea liked this.

Feb. 20 at 2:12 p.m.

tjk

Thread Starter

Loyal To The Oil

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 326

Likes: 124

Quoting: Hawksguy81

The Oilers have paid Brown his bonus, so Edmonton has to account for it. Hawks accept Brown and a 4th for Entwistle.

Ok cool, thanks, I just wasn't quite sure how it worked. I'd do that deal all day.

Hawksguy81 liked this.

Feb. 20 at 2:20 p.m.

tjk

Thread Starter

Loyal To The Oil

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 326

Likes: 124

Quoting: CD282

Thanks for the info. Wasn't sure how the bonus worked. That's why I was saying if we're paying his bonus change it to a 4th or 5th.

2. While I disagree, I think it's all relative. Like if there isn't a way we can get a definite upgrade we should just keep him, thereby he isn't a "dump". But if it means getting a RD upgrade I think I'd "dump" him with a 3rd somewhere. It's a cause-and-effect trade, I'm only saying it's a "dump" because it enables another move for a better player with the same salary, not because I think Ceci is a bad player or has a bad deal that needs to be "dumped".

3. I think Guentzel is a clear upgrade over Foegele, and if you are gonna use the argument that he's good because he plays with Crosby, you could then reason that he will also be good with McDavid or Drai. I don't think we can re-sign Foegs anyways, so for half a season it's worth the upgrade. At least in my opinion.

4. Who do you prefer?

5. Mainly just did that because I had no 2nds or 3rds left with the trades I made. Given the 2nd from the Brown deal would be a 4th-5th, just move it there and I'd take that deal, I like Dowd.

Feb. 20 at 3:21 p.m.

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,173

Likes: 7,792

Quoting: tjk

I don't understand your point about Ceci. If he has value, you should extract that value. But you're freely admitting that you would be willing to trade a 3rd in a classic cap dump move.

I think most fans misunderstand the Ceci situation. He's not a bad player nor is he a cap dump, but his position is one where Edmonton may look to upgrade. That means going from a 7 to a 9, that doesn't mean the 7 has negative value. They aren't looking to trade Ceci except for if an upgrade is coming back.

Feb. 20 at 3:30 p.m.

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,173

Likes: 7,792

Over the past 1.5 seasons Guentzel has scored 0.25 goals/game at 5v5, compared to Foegele's 0.176 goals/game.

Foegele v Guentzel, 5v5 counts

In the last quartile of the season, that amounts to a grand total of 1.5 additional goals. Is that 1.5 goals really worth Lavoie + Lachance + 1st + 3rd to you?

Feb. 20 at 4:32 p.m.

tjk

Thread Starter

Loyal To The Oil

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 326

Likes: 124

Quoting: CD282

Foegele and Guentzel have both played 58 playoff games in their career. Foegele has 16pts, Guentzel has 58pts and a cup.

Yes, that difference is worth a pick and whatever prospects to me.

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Forums/Armchair-GM

Screw it we ball

Description

Trades

EDM

CHI

EDM

SJS

EDM

PIT

EDM

CGY

EDM

WSH

Buyouts

Buried

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