From The Athletic:
Arizona Coyotes trade Matt Dumba and a 2024 second-round draft choice to the Maple Leafs for Toronto’s 2024 first-rounder.
Toronto flips the second-rounder to the Calgary Flames for Chris Tanev.
This is complicated, so let’s begin with three truths that appear to have been established already. One is that the Maple Leafs need at least one and potentially two defensemen to give themselves a legitimate shot at the 2024 Stanley Cup. Two, the most common currency they could potentially use to acquire a mid-range defenseman, second-round draft choices, are missing from their draft-choice inventory. Three, Toronto wants to make its trade-deadline moves without giving up an A-level prospect.
So a conundrum, and it leaves you asking the question: How do you get the reinforcements you need at the lowest price point possible?
Maybe this is how. Arizona has joined the ranks of the sellers because of its recent month-long nosedive, which means both Matt Dumba and Jason Zucker, two pending UFAs, are now probably in play.
What might Dumba return at the deadline? Well, he’s 29, makes only modest dollars ($3.9 million) and has basically morphed into a stay-at-home defenseman in the second half of his career. He only had six points in his first 47 games for Arizona, though he’s contributed more offensively of late. Also: He’s been in the playoffs eight of the past nine seasons and can provide a physical presence to a Maple Leafs defense corps that probably can use some help in that area.
In theory, Toronto could offer its first for Dumba, but ask for a second-rounder back. Arizona has three — its own, Washington’s and Florida’s. Maybe the Coyotes send Toronto the second of those three.
It’s reasonable to ask: Why would Arizona trade Dumba to Toronto simply for a draft choice upgrade? For one thing, it’s something they’ve prioritized in the past. Remember, at last year’s deadline, the Coyotes chose to trade Jakob Chychrun to Ottawa instead of a handful of other suitors because the first-rounder Ottawa was sending back was going to be a higher choice than they would have gotten from a team in a playoff position.
So, jumping into the 20s from the 40s at the 2024 draft, which is what giving up a second to acquire a first would accomplish — that would represent genuine value to the Coyotes.
Meanwhile, Toronto gets a valuable rental in Dumba, plus potentially the draft capital to meet Calgary’s asking price for Chris Tanev, a player the Leafs would like to add to play alongside Morgan Rielly on their first pair. And if they can’t get Tanev for a second, then the Leafs could potentially use the pick to shop elsewhere — for a Sean Walker, a Nick Seeler or an Ilya Lyubushkin. But either way, Toronto gets the upgrade it needs on defense and the cost is its own first-rounder.
Not ideal, but better than the alternatives — of either standing pat or giving up either Fraser Minten or Easton Cowan in the deal.
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