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50Leafs 2023 2024 Season Discussion Part 5 - TDL additions (Go Big or Go Small)

Mar. 13 at 6:19 p.m.
#926
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: Juice
I think we just need to be realistic about the expectations.

Assuming he signs...I think it's a terrific trade for what it was. We used a 6th to get a 4th round caliber d-man who's already had a few years to develop. He may or may not ever make it to the NHL level..just like any 4th round pick... but they have the advantage of more information and they obviously liked what they saw. Compared to what a late 6th round pick would likely yield? It's probably the best use of draft picks the leafs deployed this deadline.


He honestly reminds me of Leafs version of Brodie but is more aggressive in front of the net. Like you do not get in that crease when hes around thats for sure. Gave me FLA vibes

Like how many times did we see Ekblad, Gudas do that **** enough to go we need that.

He feels like someone could could maybe settle into a third pair role in a year or two and who is a teams chosen PKer. With the way Brad talked about him would be a bit surprised if he didnt sign
Mar. 13 at 6:42 p.m.
#927
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This draft we have:
1 1st
1 4th
3 5ths: (TOR, CHI, VAN)
2 7ths: (TOR, OTT)

We have a lack of prospects compared to other teams, should the leafs attempt to trade down to gather more picks? If so, what picks should they trade down
Mar. 13 at 7:03 p.m.
#928
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Edited Mar. 13 at 7:08 p.m.
Quoting: CameronSquires
This draft we have:
1 1st
1 4th
3 5ths: (TOR, CHI, VAN)
2 7ths: (TOR, OTT)

We have a lack of prospects compared to other teams, should the leafs attempt to trade down to gather more picks? If so, what picks should they trade down


Knowing Brad a trade down's most likely

And there is only one pick of value to trade down from the 1st

As really this isnt a crazy draft just amass some picks now or next draft in trade downs
Mar. 13 at 7:11 p.m.
#929
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Quoting: CameronSquires
This draft we have:
1 1st
1 4th
3 5ths: (TOR, CHI, VAN)
2 7ths: (TOR, OTT)

We have a lack of prospects compared to other teams, should the leafs attempt to trade down to gather more picks? If so, what picks should they trade down


Not sure if we will but trading back from the 1st round could give us some EXCELLENT value. So many later round guys that look like gems. Noel Fransen is a guy I'd love to trade back for

I doubt we do it
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Mar. 13 at 7:29 p.m.
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Easton Cowan out tonight with upper body injury. Reports say this officially ends his 32 game point streak

I disagree since he isn’t playing but I guess technically ?
Mar. 13 at 7:39 p.m.
#931
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Quoting: CameronSquires
Easton Cowan out tonight with upper body injury. Reports say this officially ends his 32 game point streak

I disagree since he isn’t playing but I guess technically ?


Is that how it works? If so, that's so lame. This is a point streak, not an iron man streak...
Mar. 13 at 7:49 p.m.
#932
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Quoting: CameronSquires
Easton Cowan out tonight with upper body injury. Reports say this officially ends his 32 game point streak

I disagree since he isn’t playing but I guess technically ?


I dont think thats how that works. A players point streak does not end when they are hurt and dont play the game at all. It ends if they play and go pointless. Him missing the entire game basically ends an ironman streak

Matthews for instance didnt have his goal streak gone after being sick a game as he didnt play.
Mar. 13 at 7:54 p.m.
#933
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Quoting: NorthernLeafsFan05
Is that how it works? If so, that's so lame. This is a point streak, not an iron man streak...


Quoting: aadoyle
I dont think thats how that works. A players streak does not end when they are hurt. That only applies to an ironman streak

Matthews for instance didnt have his goal streak gone after being sick a game as he didnt play.


That's what I thought too, I just seen reports claiming it ended his point streak so I was confused why it would end when he isn't in the game.
Mar. 13 at 8:49 p.m.
#934
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Quoting: aadoyle
I guess mean nothing considering we lost to BOS 4 times but if we look it was 2 in regulation, one in OT and one in a SO

Simple mistakes just hurt them in 3 of the 4 games. Only mondays was where im like dam lul


Many of those teams are mediocre. Hopefully I am wrong, that would be great
Mar. 13 at 8:51 p.m.
#935
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Quoting: NorthernLeafsFan05
Not sure if we will but trading back from the 1st round could give us some EXCELLENT value. So many later round guys that look like gems. Noel Fransen is a guy I'd love to trade back for

I doubt we do it


I think we should drop our late 1st to 2 2nds / 2nd and a high 3rd depending on where they are in the draft order

and trade the 4th to a 5th and a 6th, just so we can have so many 5th round picks, it could give them security to just pick a bunch of guys they like without having to wait till the next round, and also would be entertaining lol
Mar. 13 at 9:05 p.m.
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Quoting: CameronSquires
I think we should drop our late 1st to 2 2nds / 2nd and a high 3rd depending on where they are in the draft order

and trade the 4th to a 5th and a 6th, just so we can have so many 5th round picks, it could give them security to just pick a bunch of guys they like without having to wait till the next round, and also would be entertaining lol


I don’t think the strategy is to simply move back to acquire more picks.

You make your draft board. If the guy you like best is likely available 10+ picks later…you move back and try and pick up extra picks.

It’s more about being able to select the guys you like vs just being able to select more guys.

Of course you weigh how much more you like different guys in different spots and if you’re comfortable moving back and going with option 2 later…but there’s a more precise strategy about who you want to select where vs simply just getting more picks and figuring out the rest later
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Mar. 13 at 9:53 p.m.
#937
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Quoting: Juice
I don’t think the strategy is to simply move back to acquire more picks.

You make your draft board. If the guy you like best is likely available 10+ picks later…you move back and try and pick up extra picks.

It’s more about being able to select the guys you like vs just being able to select more guys.

Of course you weigh how much more you like different guys in different spots and if you’re comfortable moving back and going with option 2 later…but there’s a more precise strategy about who you want to select where vs simply just getting more picks and figuring out the rest later


Yep, I got a feeling though based on the cupboard and the fact this draft year aint crazy were probs gonna see a trade back.

And like 2020 draft one could argue why it makes sense. As then u can amass more picks to use now or later and basically still get some guys you want

A good trade down example Brad did was Zary. He moved down a few spots got 2 3rds and still came out with a solid prospect
Mar. 13 at 10:46 p.m.
#938
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Quoting: Juice
I don’t think the strategy is to simply move back to acquire more picks.

You make your draft board. If the guy you like best is likely available 10+ picks later…you move back and try and pick up extra picks.

It’s more about being able to select the guys you like vs just being able to select more guys.

Of course you weigh how much more you like different guys in different spots and if you’re comfortable moving back and going with option 2 later…but there’s a more precise strategy about who you want to select where vs simply just getting more picks and figuring out the rest later


Oh yeah agreed, I just think if the player they want in the first is gone, take 2 seconds if they don't see anyone stand out
Mar. 13 at 10:47 p.m.
#939
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Watching the WHL Lethbridge Hurricanes vs Edm Oil Kings game (2-1 EDM going into 3rd)

Chadwick got an assist on Leth's only goal so far.

Seeing Chadwick play tonight is impressive, the thing I'm impressed about most is his iq and game knowledge. He seems to always be in the right position on every play and for that reason, the puck always just seems to find him.
Mar. 14 at 12:37 a.m.
#940
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Quoting: CameronSquires
That's what I thought too, I just seen reports claiming it ended his point streak so I was confused why it would end when he isn't in the game.


Update: Further reports I read suggest his streak is on hold, which was what I thought initially, so I think this is the consensus
Mar. 14 at 1:36 a.m.
#941
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Quoting: Juice
I don’t think the strategy is to simply move back to acquire more picks.

You make your draft board. If the guy you like best is likely available 10+ picks later…you move back and try and pick up extra picks.

It’s more about being able to select the guys you like vs just being able to select more guys.

Of course you weigh how much more you like different guys in different spots and if you’re comfortable moving back and going with option 2 later…but there’s a more precise strategy about who you want to select where vs simply just getting more picks and figuring out the rest later


Since this draft isn't as deep, is trading one or more picks from this draft to acquire 2025 picks realistic?
Curious on where people stand on this draft vs 2025.
Mar. 14 at 4:28 a.m.
#942
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: oneX
Since this draft isn't as deep, is trading one or more picks from this draft to acquire 2025 picks realistic?
Curious on where people stand on this draft vs 2025.


U can always trade down and get a combo of picks from 2024 or 2025 lot of teams do that

For instance leafs can trade down this year give their 1st get a 2024 2nd and a 2025 3rd
Mar. 14 at 9:06 a.m.
#943
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Sure...I think there's plenty of options they CAN do...of course assuming there's a willing trade partner...impossible for outsiders to really gauge the likelihood or assess what the better option is.

You pay all these scouts to provide you with the info and sometimes it's how hard one scout, or one assistant GM may push for a certain player.

There's also a very real possibility they still trade that 1st round pick for a roster player.

Maybe they aren't in love with anyone where they're selecting and value holding 2025 picks as assets they can use again at the deadline, etc.

My understanding from listening to former GM's or scouts talk about war rooms and draft days....there's different pressures and motives from different people around the table... teams always have their draft boards and they generally want to add players off that board to their farm system. Amateur Scouts will generally be pushing for them to use current picks at the current draft....spending your full time job watching and rating players to then have picks punted away in trades or for other future picks....it's part of the job...and doesn't necessarily undermine it...but they are vested in proving their worth. GM is weighing the pressure of how much they need to win now vs build for the future.

Going just off memory and not really looking into this too deeply...I feel like when a team trades a conditional pick...when one of the sides get to pick whether that draft pick is used this year or next year...most teams take the current pick....I'm recalling Ottawa when they picked Brady Tkachuk.

I also really enjoyed that banter we got to see between Brian Burke and Bryan Murray on the draft floor regarding Nazem Kadri. I think most would agree that Toronto was probably comfortable taking a player a couple spots later and was trying to bait Ottawa into trading up with them but Bryan didn't bite.
Mar. 14 at 3:15 p.m.
#944
Hakuna Matata
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Edited Mar. 14 at 3:22 p.m.
Quoting: Juice
Sure...I think there's plenty of options they CAN do...of course assuming there's a willing trade partner...impossible for outsiders to really gauge the likelihood or assess what the better option is.

You pay all these scouts to provide you with the info and sometimes it's how hard one scout, or one assistant GM may push for a certain player.

There's also a very real possibility they still trade that 1st round pick for a roster player.

Maybe they aren't in love with anyone where they're selecting and value holding 2025 picks as assets they can use again at the deadline, etc.

My understanding from listening to former GM's or scouts talk about war rooms and draft days....there's different pressures and motives from different people around the table... teams always have their draft boards and they generally want to add players off that board to their farm system. Amateur Scouts will generally be pushing for them to use current picks at the current draft....spending your full time job watching and rating players to then have picks punted away in trades or for other future picks....it's part of the job...and doesn't necessarily undermine it...but they are vested in proving their worth. GM is weighing the pressure of how much they need to win now vs build for the future.

Going just off memory and not really looking into this too deeply...I feel like when a team trades a conditional pick...when one of the sides get to pick whether that draft pick is used this year or next year...most teams take the current pick....I'm recalling Ottawa when they picked Brady Tkachuk.

I also really enjoyed that banter we got to see between Brian Burke and Bryan Murray on the draft floor regarding Nazem Kadri. I think most would agree that Toronto was probably comfortable taking a player a couple spots later and was trying to bait Ottawa into trading up with them but Bryan didn't bite.



This might be where the trade everyone expected to happen this TDL will happen as I think this is where STL is gonna decide the path they want to go down.


But its also risky as this FA does have some nice RD options to target (Demelo + Roy)
Mar. 14 at 3:39 p.m.
#945
Hakuna Matata
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27 forward duos have played 100+ minutes together for the leafs this season

Holmberg-Kampf have controlled

66% of the goals, 4th best
61% of the xG, 3rd best

They've started 36% of their shifts in the offensive zone

One idea been contemplating for 2024-2025 is to sign Sprong

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHE0VW8kQqo&t=107s&ab_channel=CunuckHockey


Put that kind of player with more defensive orientated players and u could create something very interesting

SEA and DET have highlighted that

Like Holmberg-Kampf-Sprong could be a lot of fun
Mar. 14 at 4:33 p.m.
#946
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Quoting: aadoyle
I dont think thats how that works. A players point streak does not end when they are hurt and dont play the game at all. It ends if they play and go pointless. Him missing the entire game basically ends an ironman streak

Matthews for instance didnt have his goal streak gone after being sick a game as he didnt play.


The official steak would be broken. From a league perspective and for the records
Mar. 14 at 5:08 p.m.
#947
Leafs going to Leafs
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Quoting: CameronSquires
This draft we have:
1 1st
1 4th
3 5ths: (TOR, CHI, VAN)
2 7ths: (TOR, OTT)

We have a lack of prospects compared to other teams, should the leafs attempt to trade down to gather more picks? If so, what picks should they trade down


I'd trade down the 1st for 2 2nds and a 3rd (as that's th 1st's value), otherwise, just use the 1st
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Mar. 14 at 5:13 p.m.
#948
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Edited Mar. 14 at 5:20 p.m.
Quoting: Leafsfan98
I'd trade down the 1st for 2 2nds and a 3rd (as that's th 1st's value), otherwise, just use the 1st


Nobody will give TOR 2 2nds and a 3rd for a late 1st.

If u look the closest thing u will get is a 2nd + 3rd as this aint a deep draft. You might be able to get 2 2nds instead of a 3rd but its very doubtful unless said team is desperate.

An example in 2020

TOR traded the 44 OA pick (high 2nd) and got the 59 and 64 (low 2nd and high 3rd)

If the 1st is late its meh this aint a good draft go amass some picks
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Mar. 14 at 5:20 p.m.
#949
Leafs going to Leafs
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Quoting: aadoyle
Nobody will give TOR 2 2nds and a 3rd for a 1st.


Then use the 1st... As look at: https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/

If the Leafs make SCF or win it, I don't care about the draft tbh, so let's say their pick's at 22... 208.05

Pick 41 is at 89.15, Pick 69 is at 30.71 (an early 2nd and early 3rd) 89.15+30.71= 119.86... then subtract 208.05 by 119.86 and that equals 88.19 which is roughly Pick 42 (another early 2nd, at 85.38) and Pick 158 (a late 5th, 2.99)

So, Pick 22 is worth: 2 early 2nds, an early 3rd and a late 5th
Mar. 14 at 5:21 p.m.
#950
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
Then use the 1st... As look at: https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/

If the Leafs make SCF or win it, I don't care about the draft tbh, so let's say their pick's at 22... 208.05

Pick 41 is at 89.15, Pick 69 is at 30.71 (an early 2nd and early 3rd) 89.15+30.71= 119.86... then subtract 208.05 by 119.86 and that equals 88.19 which is roughly Pick 42 (another early 2nd, at 85.38) and Pick 158 (a late 5th, 2.99)

So, Pick 22 is worth: 2 early 2nds, an early 3rd and a late 5th


This is not a stacked draft. Go amass later picks rather than draft someone who you can get later. 2020 be the formula for what they should do

TOR traded the 44 OA pick (high 2nd) and got the 59 and 64 (low 2nd and high 3rd)

Our pick will probs be 25-32 if we trade down expect a mid round 2nd and high 3rd
 
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