I found the most common traits of all cup winners of the past 15 years and compared the top 17 ranked teams to those traits:
The 4 common traits I found were:
1: All teams had a top 3 pick
2: 1st line center aged 25-29 is very common
3: Obvious number 1 defenseman
4: Highest draft pick is typically Canadian
8 of the most recent 15 winning teams met all 4 criteria, 6 only met 3 criteria, but all 6 had a first or second overall pick. 1 team only met 2 of the criteria, but they had a superstar first overall pick. No cup winning teams met 1 or 0 of the criteria.
All winning teams first line centers were under 30. Only exception is Washington in 2018, but Backstrom was 29 to start the season, so I counted it. Every team also had an obvious number 1 defenseman, so these 2 traits are required.
Because you have to meet 3 or more of the criteria (or 2 but have a first overall pick) This eliminates Boston, Detroit, Nashville, Philly, Vancouver, and Winnipeg from the contenders.
In addition to that, 14/15 winning teams had either a first overall pick, or a Canadian 1st line center, or both, along with a standout number 1 defenseman and an under 30 first line center. Vegas is the exception, with Eichel as their top center, who is American, age 26, and was picked 2nd overall. They did have a standout defenseman, who had already won a cup with another team. Basically as close as you can get.
This eliminates Los Angeles and New York from the contenders.
So there are 9 teams left that meet 3 or 4 of the initial criteria, or meet 2 but have a superstar first overall pick.
To sort these teams, I saw if they had the traits I found in the winning teams: a top center under 30, in addition to a first overall pick and/or a Canadian first line center.
Colorado, Edmonton, and Tampa Bay are the only teams that meet all 3 of those standards.
Florida, New Jersey, and Toronto meet the required first line center under 30, and meet one of the other two standards.
Carolina, Dallas, and Vegas meet only one criteria, but it’s a top center under 30, which is the required one.
New York meets every criteria except a top center under 30 (He is 30, and will turn 31 mid playoffs). They have a first overall pick, a second overall pick, a clear number 1 defenseman who has won a Norris, and clear number 1 goalie who has won a Vezina, another goalie who has won 3 cups, so I will give them an exception, but I’ll keep them in the Carolina/Dallas/Vegas tier.
So I’d rank the odds as:
1: Edmonton
2: Colorado
3: Tampa Bay
4: Toronto
5: Florida
6: New Jersey
7: Dallas
8: Vegas
9: Carolina
10: New York
The top 5 are clear favorites for me. You could argue Edmonton doesn't have a clear cut No. 1 dman, but it looks like Bouchard has become that. They were my favorite to win the cup before the season started, so I'll stick with them. Colorado is right up there, only slight issue they have is goaltending, but they have anything else you could look for in a contender. These two teams are ahead of the others. Tampa has a slight edge on Toronto and Florida. Toronto... I've picked them to win the cup for maybe 5-6 years in a row, but not this year. There's something wrong with them that we're not seeing. Florida, I'm a little skeptical of a non Canadian 1C, and Ekblad isn't quite on that standout top dman level this year, but they've got basically everything else you could look for.
I think New Jersey will miss the playoffs unfortunately so I’ll rule them out. Teams 7-9 are possible but unlikely, because they either don’t have a Canadian top center or a first overall pick, however each team does have a second overall pick. Dallas has a Canadian second overall pick, so they get the edge. Vegas obviously won last year. Carolina is interesting: deepest deep arguably in the whole league, but no true superstar or standout defenseman. Hockey is a team game, but not THAT much of team game. New York has everything except the top center under 30, so I’ll give them the exception and put them at 10.
I don’t think Boston, Detroit, Los Angeles, Nashville, Philly, Vancouver or Winnipeg stand a chance regardless of their record or talent. I wouldn't bet a penny on any of them winning.
By this logic Edmonton should have won at least one cup over the last 5 years.
Disagree, McDavid was under 25 until recently, and now is honestly the first time I'd consider them to have a true No. 1 dman. Based on my logic, it actually makes sense that this is the first year they meet the criteria to actually win, and provides a pretty solid argument for why they have been unable to win even with elite talent in recent years.
Also, more than 1 team can meet the criteria each season, however only 1 team can win. There are multiple teams that CAN win, but don't.
I mean I feel like Panarin picks up enough of the slack for the #1 center on the rangers
I'm not saying Zibanejad isn't good, I actually think he's great. It's just that literally no team has won with an over 30 1st line center in 15+ years. Statistically it is unlikely they win, in my opinion, regardless of talent.
I'm not saying Zibanejad isn't good, I actually think he's great. It's just that literally no team has won with an over 30 1st line center in 15+ years. Statistically it is unlikely they win, in my opinion, regardless of talent.
This year I’d say the 1C is trocheck. Mika is been oddly bad or not himself
I think the common theme for Stanley Cup finals is hot goalies for the most part
For the Hurricanes
"Obvious number 1 defenseman"- Jaccob Slavin
"All teams had a top 3 pick" - Andrei Svechnikov
Nationality plays a big role in my criteria. And first overall picks.
Every cup winner in the last 15 years has had a first line center under age 30, AND one or both of the following:
- first overall pick
- a Canadian first line center
Carolina has neither.
Edit: this is also how Carolina even made the list in the first place, even over top teams like Boston, Vancouver, and Winnipeg, they meet the first set of criteria. But the more in depth stuff they don't, that's why they're lower on the list.
This year I’d say the 1C is trocheck. Mika is been oddly bad or not himself
I think the common theme for Stanley Cup finals is hot goalies for the most part
Even thinking about researching goalie stats/trends for cup winners gives me a headache lmao. So random and unpredictable it seems. But who knows, maybe there's an underlying stat were not seeing. No promises I'll research this haha.
I think the canadian center thing is an example of correlation does not equal causation. I think Canada tends to typically develop good centers hence why most cup winners have had canadian 1 C's but that doesnt mean that there cant be good centers who arent canadian
Even thinking about researching goalie stats/trends for cup winners gives me a headache lmao. So random and unpredictable it seems. But who knows, maybe there's an underlying stat were not seeing. No promises I'll research this haha.
Vegas had a good goalie in Hill and Panthers Bob got red hot too
Rangers had Igor until the ECF and Tampa has Vasi
Habs had Price for the Covid cup run
I think the canadian center thing is an example of correlation does not equal causation. I think Canada tends to typically develop good centers hence why most cup winners have had canadian 1 C's but that doesnt mean that there cant be good centers who arent canadian
Definitely some truth to this. Although you could make the argument that media, culture etc. plays a role in it. I think those guys growing up with world juniors being such a big deal in Canada plays a role. And it's more important to their friends and family. I think that gives them an edge mentally, plus that's intimidating to play against.
Nationality plays a big role in my criteria. And first overall picks.
Every cup winner in the last 15 years has had a first line center under age 30, AND one or both of the following:
- first overall pick
- a Canadian first line center
Carolina has neither.
Edit: this is also how Carolina even made the list in the first place, even over top teams like Boston, Vancouver, and Winnipeg, they meet the first set of criteria. But the more in depth stuff they don't, that's why they're lower on the list.
That's completely fair... they are much more reliant on depth than the Boston's or Edmonton's of the world but that depth is super needed of the nature of the playoffs. I'd take a team built like the Hurricanes over the Rangers or Leafs every single day of the week
That's completely fair... they are much more reliant on depth than the Boston's or Edmonton's of the world but that depth is super needed of the nature of the playoffs. I'd take a team built like the Hurricanes over the Rangers or Leafs every single day of the week
Same. I see Aho as someone who can win a cup. Carolina seems to be one piece away from being a true contender in my opinion. Kochetkov is good enough, defense is top notch, they're just missing a true superstar imo.
The Jets are one of the most complete teams in the NHL, they are definitely not pretenders
They're an excellent team. But based on the research I've done and the criteria I set from that, I can't see them as winners. Not arguing they're a bad team though. I could see them making it to the second round. Getting past Colorado will be tough. Could potentially make it to the third round but who knows, I'm going with Edmonton.
Same. I see Aho as someone who can win a cup. Carolina seems to be one piece away from being a true contender in my opinion. Kochetkov is good enough, defense is top notch, they're just missing a true superstar imo.
I don't think it's a superstar that we need but another 20-25+ goal scorer to help take a load off Sebastian and Andrei... Like a Frank Vatrano or Nick Schmaltz type
No, I'd put Bouchard there. He's close enough, and I feel more confident than not picking them.
Bouchard is like a younger Barrie. He's great offensively but a complete liability in his own end. To me a true contender has to have a defenseman worthy of winning the Norris and Edmonton simply doesn't have that.
They're an excellent team. But based on the research I've done and the criteria I set from that, I can't see them as winners. Not arguing they're a bad team though. I could see them making it to the second round. Getting past Colorado will be tough. Could potentially make it to the third round but who knows, I'm going with Edmonton.
In a potential matchup against Colorado, yes the Avs have more star power, but I think it's gonna come down to goaltending. And Hellebuyck will steal the series for the Jets. The Jets can easily take Edmonton with superior goaltending and depth too. I think the team that would give the Jets the hardest series would be Vancouver.
Bouchard is like a younger Barrie. He's great offensively but a complete liability in his own end. To me a true contender has to have a defenseman worthy of winning the Norris and Edmonton simply doesn't have that.
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