Boedker is a career -47, with one plus season at +11, but even on a defensively solid Sharks team last year, with Jones standing on his head, he was just even, making the one plus year look like the fluke. Ovechkin takes a lot of flack for his big minus year, but that's the same year that Holtby was terrible and everyone blamed it on hall of famer and assist genius Adam Oates' coaching. In his career, Ovechkin is a +84, with two seasons in the top ten in that category. Ovechkin also can play against other teams' top lines, and be a plus player. I don't think Boedker is the guy you want in that situation. OP said Boedker is a salary dump, and I think if Ovechkin is traded anywhere, there will be one of those coming back. If it's not Mikkel, then, fine. It's someone else. But a placeholder player, a prospect, and two first round picks is the value being suggested, not four first round picks. I mean, it's not like he's Scott Stevens (who was a bargain for St Louis at five first round picks)...
I think this is a solid instant rebuild, for if the Caps decide the window is closing faster than they anticipated. Last summer they decided the window was still open but they wanted to get smaller and faster. The result was another President's trophy and another second round loss to the exact same Pittsburgh roster, which this time actually outshot Washington and won by more than one goal. So this summer they're working on signing bigger callup players, to go back to the formula that outworked the Penguins. I think that's reasonable. But if somehow, without Johansson, Alzner, and WIlliams, the wheels have come off, then I think this scenario shows what the core of a back to back best team in the league over a definitive 164 games is worth.
Does it make sense to have that firesale? Probably not. They've got a good team, right now, and they're adding young goal scoring forwards at minimum wage as fast as they're losing established ones at the top end of the free agent market. Kuznetsov's contract looks expensive, but if Smith-Pelly, Wilson, and Connolly can collectively score as many goals in increased roles as Johansson and Williams put in last season (which is only asking for about 16 apiece) then the Caps' offense is still around the top of the league. Smith-Pelly had a year in New Jersey where he was limited to twenty games, but put in eight goals, on a pace for 36 or so. Connolly is a recent seventh overall pick who seems to be figuring out the defensive game and getting more time with the puck as he matures, and could easily score 25 this year, if he plays in the top six. Wilson is one of the toughest wings in the league, but he needs to spend a summer shooting golf balls at a dartboard, and learning how to stickhandle. If he learns how to play a little bit of offense, he could be really good at it, because defenders are going to give him plenty of space to keep trying.
So this isn't really a post about the Caps needing to be saved by the great Mikkel Boedker. It's about worrying that the Caps' core might be just past their best chance to win the Stanley Cup, and trying to guess at the total trade value of their veterans. As such, I think it succeeds in estimating fair values for several players. I agree that Winnipeg isn't likely to move Hellebuyck if he's healthy, but if he's injured and the Caps' half-rookie defense isn't working in front of Holtby, then I think that trade works for both sides.
Quoting: mothariah
Sharks fan here... No, we wouldn't do that deal. Boedker (a first round pick), Meier (a first round pick), and two more firsts for Ovechkin? That's a lot. Plus, Sharks are hoping to get younger. Yeah, we could use scoring (Marleau is gone), but I think there are cheaper alternatives.
Plus, why would you want Boedker? He's a less skilled (faster) Ovechkin, who gives even less effort than Ovechkin did in his youth.
Too much for Backstrom...
Eller deal is okay, don't see it happening though.
That's a lot for a guy (Connolly) who has been claimed on waivers twice already in his young career...
Boy are you not getting enough for Holtby. Maybe Hellebuyck and like Tyler Myers to replace Carlson, plus a first? Still not happening, specifically because the Jets signed Steve Mason to play 1A/1B with Hellebuyck.
Carlson trade works for me, but giving up another defenseman? Not the right time. Same with Chorney, although you pegged him at decent value.
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