Norris out 2024 25 assumption post

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Created by: Beargold

Team: 2024-25 Ottawa Senators

Initial Creation Date: Mar. 12, 2024

Published: Mar. 14, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

This assumed Norris is LTIRetired or at least out for a significant amount of time. Need to keep some cap space in the event he does have a mid to late season return, but hoping that with him out (and honestly, Chabot will get injured too at some point) we accumulate enough LTIR cap space to offset a potential return.

Parekh is unlikely to remain on the 2nd pair, but starting him there to see how it goes. If it goes poorly through pre-season, change the lines to:

Sanderson - Zub
Chabot - Tanev
Kleven - Branny

And send Parekh to CHL for another year.

If Henrique wants more or dislikes OTT, then lets all cheer for DAL to win the cup and then try to convince Duchene to come back to OTT instead. Offer the same or a similar contract.

Greig - Pinto - Duchene
OR
Joseph - Pageau - Duchene

Pageau w/ retention is close to a 2nd and a 3rd value, hence Chychrun for retained Pageau and a mid 1st. Get a seemingly middle-6 player with that pick for when Henrique's contract ends / he retires.

BOS might want more for Ullmark, especially with other teams also looking for goaltending. OTT's 2nd rounder is similar to a late 1st and JBD has improved significantly since the pre-season. Hoping that is enough for 1 year of Ullmark w/out retention, especially since BOSneeds to make room for Bussi. OTT made 3 1st round picks so they could move their 2nd rounder. Would move Bos 1st rounder back to them instead if that's what it would take. Ullmark may say no and veto the trade, but let's assume otherwise just for fun-ski.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Katchouk, Boris	1	$775,000
Pinto, Shane	8	$5,000,000
Brännström, Erik	3	$2,200,000
Søgaard, Mads	2	$1,000,000
Kelly, Parker	2	$800,000
Matinpalo, Nikolas	2	$900,000
Guénette, Maxence	2	$850,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Henrique, Adam		2	$4,000,000
Tanev, Christopher		2	$4,000,000

CREATED		YEARS	CAP HIT
Parekh, Zayne		3	$950,000

Trades

OTT

Pageau, Jean-Gabriel ($2,000,000 retained)
2024 1st round pick (NYI)

Additional Details:

Assume the pick is 16th OVR

NYI

Chychrun, Jakob

OTT

Ullmark, Linus

BOS

Bernard-Docker, Jacob
2024 2nd round pick (OTT)
2024 4th round pick (FLA)

Buyouts

Colin White: -$625,000
Joonas Korpisalo: $333,333

Buried

Anton Forsberg: $1,600,000 ($2,750,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$87,500,000	$84,912,380	$850,000	$82,500	$2,587,620

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Tkachuk, Brady $8,205,714$8,205,714 LW UFA - 4	Stützle, Tim $8,350,000$8,350,000 C UFA - 7	Giroux, Claude $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, C NMC UFA - 1
Greig, Ridly $863,333$863,333 C, LW RFA - 1	Pinto, Shane $5,000,000$5,000,000 C RFA	Batherson, Drake $4,975,000$4,975,000 RW, LW UFA - 3
Henrique, Adam $4,000,000$4,000,000 LW, C UFA	Pageau, Jean-Gabriel $3,000,000$3,000,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Joseph, Mathieu $2,950,000$2,950,000 LW, RW UFA - 2
Kelly, Parker $800,000$800,000 LW RFA	Ostapchuk, Zack $825,000$825,000 ($82,500$82K) C RFA - 2	Kastelic, Mark $835,000$835,000 C, RW RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Chabot, Thomas $8,000,000$8,000,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 4	Zub, Artem $4,600,000$4,600,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 3	Ullmark, Linus $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
Sanderson, Jake $8,050,000$8,050,000 LD UFA - 8	Parekh, Zayne $950,000$950,000	Søgaard, Mads $1,000,000$1,000,000 G RFA
Brännström, Erik $2,200,000$2,200,000 LD/RD, LW RFA	Tanev, Christopher $4,000,000$4,000,000 RD UFA

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Katchouk, Boris $775,000$775,000 LW RFA		Norris, Joshua $7,950,000$7,950,000 C UFA - 6
Hamonic, Travis $1,100,000$1,100,000 RD NMC UFA - 1
MacEwen, Zack $775,000$775,000 RW, C UFA - 2

Mar. 14 at 12:30 p.m.

Celtics21

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 3,773

Likes: 1,172

If you give Ullmark an extension that makes him wave his NMC, I would assume the cost would be Shane Pinto or Jacob Cychrun (with Lysell also going to Ottawa)

Mar. 14 at 12:39 p.m.

Beargold

Thread Starter

Beargold

Joined: Mar. 2022

Posts: 416

Likes: 165

Quoting: Celtics21

If you give Ullmark an extension that makes him wave his NMC, I would assume the cost would be Shane Pinto or Jacob Cychrun (with Lysell also going to Ottawa)

I'd be hesitant to give Ullmark an extension before seeing how he fares in OTT, considering how sharply Talbot and Korpi dropped once coming here. I can't envision Pinto or Chychrun being used for a goalie; goalies typically don't carry that much value. A late 1st is typically the high end mark for a good goaltender if we look at past trade comps.

Borocop liked this.

Mar. 14 at 12:41 p.m.

jfkst1

"Go sell ice cream!"

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 2,901

Likes: 1,325

What's the injury to Norris' shoulder? Is he dislocating it constantly?

csick liked this.

Mar. 14 at 12:42 p.m.

Borocop

Au-revoir Dorion

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 4,573

Likes: 3,016

Quoting: Celtics21

If you give Ullmark an extension that makes him wave his NMC, I would assume the cost would be Shane Pinto or Jacob Cychrun (with Lysell also going to Ottawa)

Chychrun is a maybe due to the contracts being in similar sitations but pinto is absolutely not an option

csick liked this.

Mar. 14 at 12:46 p.m.

Celtics21

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 3,773

Likes: 1,172

Quoting: Beargold

He says no if you don’t extend him. There is no reason he goes to Ottawa without it.

Talbott was a negative GsaX / 60 goaltender in the two years before he went to Ottawa. Korpisalo was a horrendous goaltender from 20 to 22 with regards to GSax / 60 and had a hot stretch.

Mar. 14 at 12:47 p.m.

Celtics21

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 3,773

Likes: 1,172

Quoting: Borocop

Chychrun is a maybe due to the contracts being in similar sitations but pinto is absolutely not an option

Chychrun likely ends up being next years Hanifin unless you believe he is gonna to sign.

Mar. 14 at 12:47 p.m.

Beargold

Thread Starter

Beargold

Joined: Mar. 2022

Posts: 416

Likes: 165

Quoting: jfkst1

What's the injury to Norris' shoulder? Is he dislocating it constantly?

I'm not a doctor so I can't do much more than regurgitate other news outlets, but from what I've read he requires a 3rd surgery on it. The timeline for return is 4-6 months, meaning he could be back in time for training camp, but at this point the question arises about the viability of his shoulder in the long and short-term. Last year he had a similar prognosis and still missed training camp, so if we assume a similar timeline he is likely out for next season as well, but maybe back for the playoffs Mark Stone style.

Mar. 14 at 12:50 p.m.

Beargold

Thread Starter

Beargold

Joined: Mar. 2022

Posts: 416

Likes: 165

Quoting: Celtics21

Agreed on both counts re: Talbot and Korpi. No idea what PD was thinking in either case when he made moves for them, but that ship has long since sailed.

If it is a requirement for Ullmark to waive his NTC, assuming OTT is on it (which it will be), I'm not sure if I'd make the move. If he'd take a two-year deal at a similar cap hit to what he has now, I'd give it some serious thought, but it does complicate things.

Mar. 14 at 12:53 p.m.

Beargold

Thread Starter

Beargold

Joined: Mar. 2022

Posts: 416

Likes: 165

Quoting: Borocop

Chychrun is a maybe due to the contracts being in similar sitations but pinto is absolutely not an option

Quoting: Celtics21

Chychrun likely ends up being next years Hanifin unless you believe he is gonna to sign.

I have Chychrun traded to NYI for their 1st in 2024 and a retained Pageau. Someone who plays like Joseph in Pageau, plus the chance to draft a good middle-6 in Terik Parascak or Michael Brandsegg-Nygard or Ryder Ritchie.

csick liked this.

Mar. 14 at 12:53 p.m.

#10

Celtics21

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 3,773

Likes: 1,172

Quoting: Beargold

No reason for him to even consider Ottawa under those considerations.

Quoting: Beargold

A Lysell and Ullmark for Chychrun deal makes a ton of sense. The Islanders aren’t in a cap position to the deal above. They likely need to salary dump JPG next year to fill their roster

Mar. 14 at 1:03 p.m.

#11

jfkst1

"Go sell ice cream!"

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 2,901

Likes: 1,325

Quoting: Beargold

I have a history of shoulder dislocations myself and multiple surgeries and these sound strikingly similar. Can't imagine he will ever get back to 100% again if he has that many procedures and even if he does play again, re-injury is extremely high at such a young age in a collision sport.

csick, Beargold and Borocop liked this.

Mar. 14 at 1:06 p.m.

#12

csick

KFTW

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 42,987

Likes: 23,981

Quoting: Celtics21

If you give Ullmark an extension that makes him wave his NMC, I would assume the cost would be Shane Pinto or Jacob Cychrun (with Lysell also going to Ottawa)

Chychrun yes

Pinto 0 CHANCE

Mar. 14 at 1:07 p.m.

#13

csick

KFTW

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 42,987

Likes: 23,981

Quoting: jfkst1

Even when he was playing this year it was always taped lol

Mar. 14 at 1:11 p.m.

#14

Beargold

Thread Starter

Beargold

Joined: Mar. 2022

Posts: 416

Likes: 165

Quoting: jfkst1

Agreed, hence the assumption that he won't come back. OTT lucked out a lot with how Pinto developed, but losing Norris is such a blow. Such a shame.

Mar. 14 at 1:16 p.m.

#15

athrin

Joined: May 2017

Posts: 5,810

Likes: 1,512

OTT declines NYI trade, OTT has no room for a 2.5M 3rd/4th liner that sucks

Mar. 14 at 1:17 p.m.

#16

jfkst1

"Go sell ice cream!"

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 2,901

Likes: 1,325

Quoting: Beargold

Agreed, hence the assumption that he won't come back. OTT lucked out a lot with how Pinto developed, but losing Norris is such a blow. Such a shame.

Yeah I hate to see it. OTT is a good fan base too. I want to see them excel after the Melynk ownership shortcomings.

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