Dreaming but semi-realistic

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Jded

Team: 2024-25 Anaheim Ducks

Initial Creation Date: May 1, 2024

Published: May 2, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Ducks fans I know you hate this Skinner addition, but I personally think a Yakemchuk level player would be worth it if BUF would actually be interested and would retain $2M (both big ifs).

Even if ANA kept every contract, this is roughly our team in 3 years when we’d first have cap concerns (excl a large number of 2nd rd+ prospects who could make the leap):
Gauthier (7) - Leo (8) - Demidov (1)
Zegras (7) - McT (8) - Terry (7)
Killorn (6.25) - Strome (5) - Skinner (7)
X (1) - Gaucher (1.5) - Colangelo (1.5)
= 60.25

Minty (5) - Yakemchuk (1)
Zell (5) - Roy (6.5)
Lacombe (2.5) - Luneau (2.5)
= 22.5

Dostal (4)
Gibby (6.4)
=10.4

==93.15

That probably isn’t far off of where the cap would be. Not to mention we’ll be in a position to move some of these less desirable vet contracts with young guys like Sidorov, Myatovic, etc filling in. Shouldn’t cost too much to move the vets since they’ll all be on their last year (Gibby, Strome, Skinner, Killorn), and that’s like $25M right there

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Leason, Brett		2	$1,000,000
Vaakanainen, Urho		1	$1,000,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Roy, Matt		4	$6,500,000

CREATED		YEARS	CAP HIT
Demidov, Ivan		3	$950,000
Yakemchuk, Carter		3	$950,000

Trades

ANA

Skinner, Jeff ($2,000,000 retained)
2024 1st round pick (BUF)

Additional Details:

No idea how BUF fans would view this. The idea stems from a convo from a BUF ACGM

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/828904?post_id=4864485

BUF

Jones, Max [RFA Rights]
2024 1st round pick (EDM)
2024 2nd round pick (BOS)

Additional Details:

ANA fans I know you don’t want Skinner, but see the cap projection. This should be doable

ANA

Not sure the return, not really the focal point of this ACGM

STL

LaCombe, Jackson [RFA Rights]

Buyouts

Simon Despres: $0

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$87,700,000	$72,959,167	$0	$8,330,000	$14,740,833

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Gauthier, Cutter $950,000$950,000 ($950,000$950K) LW, C RFA - 2	Carlsson, Leo $950,000$950,000 ($3,250,000$3M) C RFA - 2	Terry, Troy $7,000,000$7,000,000 RW UFA - 6
Zegras, Trevor $5,750,000$5,750,000 C, LW RFA - 2	McTavish, Mason $894,167$894,167 ($2,500,000$2M) C, LW RFA - 1	Skinner, Jeff $7,000,000$7,000,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 3
Vatrano, Frank $3,650,000$3,650,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Strome, Ryan $5,000,000$5,000,000 RW, C UFA - 3	Killorn, Alex $6,250,000$6,250,000 RW, LW NTC UFA - 3
Johnston, Ross $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW UFA - 2	Leason, Brett $1,000,000$1,000,000 RW RFA	Colangelo, Sam $925,000$925,000 ($750,000$750K) RW RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Mintyukov, Pavel $918,333$918,333 ($800,000$800K) LD RFA - 2	Roy, Matt $6,500,000$6,500,000 RD UFA	Gibson, John $6,400,000$6,400,000 G M-NTC UFA - 3
Zellweger, Olen $844,167$844,167 LD RFA - 2	Gudas, Radko $4,000,000$4,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Dostal, Lukas $812,500$812,500 G RFA - 1
Fowler, Cam $6,500,000$6,500,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Luneau, Tristan $865,000$865,000 ($80,000$80K) RD RFA - 3
Vaakanainen, Urho $1,000,000$1,000,000 LD/RD RFA

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Demidov, Ivan $950,000$950,000	McGinn, Brock $2,750,000$2,750,000 LW, RW UFA - 1
Yakemchuk, Carter $950,000$950,000

May 2 at 1:25 p.m.

littlejerryseinfeld

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 28,053

Likes: 14,666

If we are gonna use the 7 million from skinners non retention to go after a bigger fish, then yes. If pegula is just gonna pocket it and play a rookie, then no

So, no.

Boos and Jded liked this.

May 2 at 1:31 p.m.

Tjm220

Sabres fan

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 5,052

Likes: 3,121

Edited May 2 at 2:37 p.m.

Many Sabres fans here think that Skinner is cancer and we have to get rid of him. I’m in the minority it seems, understanding that he doesn’t need to go anywhere. Aside from the fact his full no movement clause means he can just say no to a trade anywhere. It doesn’t do Buffalo any good to burn money and get nothing for it, and late firsts don’t do much for a team with a loaded prospect pool. This just doesn’t work for Buffalo.

AntiAnalytics, Boos and Jded liked this.

May 2 at 1:49 p.m.

AntiAnalytics

Banned

Joined: Jul. 2023

Posts: 5,832

Likes: 3,816

It really doesn’t matter what my fellow fans “want”
Sabres mgmt likes Skinner, and it’s EXTREMELY UNLIKELY that he’s moved

Jded liked this.

May 2 at 1:51 p.m.

CHAR

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 1,060

Likes: 750

Your compensation for 7M of Skinner over 3 years is way light using PuckPedia's tools. The Ducks should be getting the value of a 9th OA draft pick for that contract and the difference between the Buffalo #11 and the picks from the Ducks is only 24 OA. The BUF pick alone with no picks going back isn't enough if we're talking about a pure cap dump. I guess you are giving Skinner as a player some value to off set, but I still think the Ducks lose a lot of value here.

I slotted the Edmonton pick at 28 since we won't know where exactly that pick is for a few weeks. FWIW.

May 2 at 2:40 p.m.

Jded

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 2,872

Likes: 1,898

Quoting: CHAR

Hey hey Char! Help me understand why Skinner would cost a 9OA to move at $7M. He has 92 - 99 -191 in 233 games over the past 3 seasons

For context, none of us are upset about Terry’s $7M, and he has 80 - 102 - 182 in 221

May 2 at 2:43 p.m.

Jded

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 2,872

Likes: 1,898

Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld

If we are gonna use the 7 million from skinners non retention to go after a bigger fish, then yes. If pegula is just gonna pocket it and play a rookie, then no

So, no.

Super reasonable

May 2 at 2:44 p.m.

Jded

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 2,872

Likes: 1,898

Quoting: Tjm220

I don’t disagree at all. Thanks for sharing

Tjm220 liked this.

May 2 at 4:36 p.m.

CHAR

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 1,060

Likes: 750

Edited May 2 at 4:41 p.m.

Quoting: Jded

Cause that's what the tool says that much cap relief is worth...

https://puckpedia.com/CapRelief

Like I said, that is putting the contract into a vacuum and ignoring the player completely. Go the other direction.... if you were to trade a pick(s) only for Skinner the player ignoring contract what value would you put on him? I honestly don't know what value I'd give him but I don't think I'd trade a 24th overall draft pick for him. I don't know, maybe he is worth that much.

Where he breaks down a bit for me is if he is a 50-60 point player or an 80 point player? He's scored 50-ish points in a season a lot more often than he has 80. You should be able to get a 50 point player in free agency without giving up any value. Is he really all that much better @7M than Vatrano was last season @3.6M? Would you trade a 24th OA pick for Vatrano? I wouldn't.

May 2 at 5:09 p.m.

AntiAnalytics

Banned

Joined: Jul. 2023

Posts: 5,832

Likes: 3,816

Quoting: CHAR

Cause that's what the tool says that much cap relief is worth...

https://puckpedia.com/CapRelief

Like I said, that is putting the contract into a vacuum and ignoring the player completely. Go the other direction.... if you were to trade a pick(s) only for Skinner the player ignoring contract what value would you put on him? I honestly don't know what value I'd give him but I don't think I'd trade a 24th overall draft pick for him. I don't know, maybe he is worth that much.

Where he breaks down a bit for me is if he is a 50-60 point player or an 80 point player? He's scored 50-ish points in a season a lot more often than he has 80. You should be able to get a 50 point player in free agency without giving up any value. Is he really all that much better 7M than Vatrano was last season 3.6M? Would you trade a 24th OA pick for Vatrano? I wouldn't.

1- Skinner isn’t just a cap dump though
2- we aren’t trading him anyways, so it’s pointless to argue about

May 2 at 5:13 p.m.

#10

Jded

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 2,872

Likes: 1,898

Quoting: CHAR

Cause that's what the tool says that much cap relief is worth...

https://puckpedia.com/CapRelief

Like I said, that is putting the contract into a vacuum and ignoring the player completely. Go the other direction.... if you were to trade a pick(s) only for Skinner the player ignoring contract what value would you put on him? I honestly don't know what value I'd give him but I don't think I'd trade a 24th overall draft pick for him. I don't know, maybe he is worth that much.

Where he breaks down a bit for me is if he is a 50-60 point player or an 80 point player? He's scored 50-ish points in a season a lot more often than he has 80. You should be able to get a 50 point player in free agency without giving up any value. Is he really all that much better 7M than Vatrano was last season 3.6M? Would you trade a 24th OA pick for Vatrano? I wouldn't.

I’m not sure I’m buying the tool’s valuation on this one at all. Like you said, Cap relief isn’t made in a vacuum here, there’s a player that comes along with it who has very material value. We’re not simply retaining $7M. We’re taking on $7M and then getting roughly 30 goals and 30 assists per year. Those are very different things. Would we use Puckpedia to evaluate Terry’s trade value as a $7M cap relief?

I’d argue that Vatrano isn’t a good comp at all either. If he had the year he just had before FA, he’d cost a heck of a lot more than $3.7M to sign. It’s incredibly rare and lucky to find a 35 goal scorer in FA for under $4M, he’s a huge outlier

Frankly, the idea that you could go from 28th to 11th while adding a ~60pt scorer at a position of need on what would be a maybe $1.5M-$2M overpriced contract for 3 years seems outrageously favorable to ANA imo if anything.

May 2 at 5:13 p.m.

#11

CHAR

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 1,060

Likes: 750

Quoting: AntiAnalytics

1- Skinner isn’t just a cap dump though
2- we aren’t trading him anyways, so it’s pointless to argue about

No argument on my side, I think it's an interesting discussion on value. You are a Buffalo fan... in a hypothetical for picks only trade what would you expect to get back for Skinner?

May 2 at 5:31 p.m.

#12

CHAR

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 1,060

Likes: 750

Quoting: Jded

Would we use Puckpedia to evaluate Terry’s trade value as a $7M cap relief?

I'd have to know why we were trading Terry. In this question context and motivation for the trade matters. Is the team capped out and desperate for room? Did Terry become horrible value at that AAV? Do we have a better/cheaper replacement for Terry? There would have to be reasons why Terry is traded and what those reasons are determine if you are trading him as a cap dump or a positive value asset.

In a similar vein, why would Buffalo trade Skinner here? What is their motivation with littlejerryseinfeld's comment in my mind.

May 3 at 2:03 a.m.

#13

AntiAnalytics

Banned

Joined: Jul. 2023

Posts: 5,832

Likes: 3,816

Edited May 3 at 1:35 p.m.

Quoting: CHAR

No argument on my side, I think it's an interesting discussion on value. You are a Buffalo fan... in a hypothetical for picks only trade what would you expect to get back for Skinner?

I don’t think we are gonna try to move him
But if we did- big “if”
Then i don’t think we’d do it to a team who views him as a “Cap dump”

I frankly don’t know what an (admittedly) expensive 30goal scorer who gets 60+ pts & isn’t great defensively is worth
I’d imagine some teams would just hang up the phone & say no thanks
Others might offer pick(s)/prospects
But to get any reasonable sort of return, we’d have to hold half & send him to a contender type team looking to boost their offense

This is the most I’m willing to dwell it this hypothetical though
Bc i don’t find it “interesting” to discuss the extremely unlikely
No offense, it’s just not my thing

CHAR and Jded liked this.

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