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Is Brandon Carlo overvalued?

Is Brandon Carlo overvalued?
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Aug. 10, 2017 at 7:53 a.m.
#1
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Since the Matt Duchene rumors have started, Brandon Carlo has been one of the most consistent names brought up by the hockey media as a player the Colorado Avalanche were targeting in a trade package.

Carlo, for the uneducated, is a 20-year old right-handed defenseman who just completed his rookie season after jumping from the Tri-City Americans of the WHL. He was a Bruins' second round pick in the 2015 draft.

His hockeyviz graphs seem to indicate he was a generally negative possession player relative to the rest of the team (which is common for rookie defensemen): http://hockeyviz.com/player/carlobr96/BOS/1617
His hockey-reference page indicates he's not an offensive defenseman, scoring 16 points this year (6G/10A on 6.8% shooting). Additionally, he's never scored more than 27 points at the junior level.

As a Bruins fan, I appreciate Carlo. I love Torey Krug and Zdeno Chara, but it's great to see some of the team's draft picks actually paying off. That being said, while much of the community is lauding Brandon Carlo, his numbers don't indicate to me that he's the potentially top-pair defenseman most of the rest of the league is indicating he is.

So I'm asking the CapFriendly community: Is Brandon Carlo overvalued? And, if you think so (and especially if you're a Bruins fan), what kind of player would you be willing to trade him for (if anything)?
Aug. 10, 2017 at 10:03 a.m.
#2
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Young RHD are a premium in today's NHL. Not sure anyone thinks he's a true top pairing guy (although he played it last year), but he's a top 4 d-men which the ability to slide up if need be. Charlie McAvoy on the other hand is a top pairing guy
Aug. 10, 2017 at 10:54 a.m.
#3
HockeySen
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He is a very solid stay at home right handed defenseman. Everyone wants a young right handed defenseman, and he is above average for his age.
Aug. 10, 2017 at 12:40 p.m.
#4
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Maybe by some people ... i've noticed that about ... almost half/half of people overvalue him i'd say.
Aug. 10, 2017 at 12:48 p.m.
#5
Below Market Value
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He may seem overvalued because he sort of came out of nowhere and looked impressive on an otherwise unimpressive to mediocre defense core. Other than Krug and Colin Miller, there wasn't much of a bright spot on Boston's blue line. Plus he played so well with an aging and slow Chara, he looked to be some kind of fountain of youth for the old captain. A lot of people though Chara would take a big step back this season, especially due to his meh performance in the World Cup, but he looked pretty good for a 40 year old.

As far as his actual value, I'd peg him as a guy that can step into a top pairing role if needed, but is best utilized on the second pairing as a #3 shutdown guy.
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Aug. 10, 2017 at 1:06 p.m.
#6
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He is somewhere between a number three and two defender. Which for a young guy is really good. He does a lot for shot generation and is good at shot suppression, I think his value surged kind of like Brady Skjei. He played 82 games and seems like he does have a high ceiling (however if he stays at the level he is that is pretty good). 82 games is still a small sample size in the grand scheme of things. But what do general managers value the most?
Young, Right-handed, defenders. By checking off those three boxes his value his value is high. Overall, He probably is valued about right for what the current market says.
Aug. 10, 2017 at 7:33 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
He may seem overvalued because he sort of came out of nowhere and looked impressive on an otherwise unimpressive to mediocre defense core. Other than Krug and Colin Miller, there wasn't much of a bright spot on Boston's blue line. Plus he played so well with an aging and slow Chara, he looked to be some kind of fountain of youth for the old captain. A lot of people though Chara would take a big step back this season, especially due to his meh performance in the World Cup, but he looked pretty good for a 40 year old.

As far as his actual value, I'd peg him as a guy that can step into a top pairing role if needed, but is best utilized on the second pairing as a #3 shutdown guy.


Be interested to hear more on why you felt Chiller was a bright spot. He's a guy that I feel like is severely overvalued just because he's fast and can shoot. His defensive game isn't great (gets out muscled quite a bit and pulls himself out of coverage to lay a hit).
Aug. 11, 2017 at 9:57 a.m.
#8
Below Market Value
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Quoting: ON3M4N
Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
He may seem overvalued because he sort of came out of nowhere and looked impressive on an otherwise unimpressive to mediocre defense core. Other than Krug and Colin Miller, there wasn't much of a bright spot on Boston's blue line. Plus he played so well with an aging and slow Chara, he looked to be some kind of fountain of youth for the old captain. A lot of people though Chara would take a big step back this season, especially due to his meh performance in the World Cup, but he looked pretty good for a 40 year old.

As far as his actual value, I'd peg him as a guy that can step into a top pairing role if needed, but is best utilized on the second pairing as a #3 shutdown guy.


Be interested to hear more on why you felt Chiller was a bright spot. He's a guy that I feel like is severely overvalued just because he's fast and can shoot. His defensive game isn't great (gets out muscled quite a bit and pulls himself out of coverage to lay a hit).


He drives possession. This past season, all of his 5v5 shot metrics were well over 50%, with some over 60%, leading all Boston defensemen in those categories. He is also very good at shot suppression. He also makes his teammates around him better. Heck, he even made Kevan Miller look like a good defenseman. Now this was with him playing only about 15 minutes per game, but he still excelled in his role.
Aug. 11, 2017 at 6:58 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
Quoting: ON3M4N


Be interested to hear more on why you felt Chiller was a bright spot. He's a guy that I feel like is severely overvalued just because he's fast and can shoot. His defensive game isn't great (gets out muscled quite a bit and pulls himself out of coverage to lay a hit).


He drives possession. This past season, all of his 5v5 shot metrics were well over 50%, with some over 60%, leading all Boston defensemen in those categories. He is also very good at shot suppression. He also makes his teammates around him better. Heck, he even made Kevan Miller look like a good defenseman. Now this was with him playing only about 15 minutes per game, but he still excelled in his role.


Maybe its because I saw more of him, but he just didn't seem that impressive and I think there are some things don't show up in analytics. Chiller will be a good #3 PP specialist at best in his career.
 
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