That's a win for Washington, because even though this regular season is going to be about giving Hershey guys tryouts on the wings, I'm sure Trotz would prefer veterans for the playoffs. I'm not as familiar with Toronto's blueline. If they need Carlson that much (and someone really could value him that much if he's offered in trade, sure), and are able to re-sign him long-term, as part of the deal, then I think the wings alone make it worth Washington's while. Realistically, though, the odds that Djoos and Bowey are both far enough along defensively that Trotz doesn't beg MacLellan to trade for a couple more Veteran defensemen to help Carrick fill Carlson's skates, though...

You are wildly overvaluing Carlson. No way this trade is close to fair.

I would love nothing more than to see this trade go through. But it just isn't realistic for the Leafs. While all those pieces may be expendable for them if they get Carlson long-term, the value isn't there. Toronto doesn't need to give up all those pieces to get Carlson from us, they could keep some of them or deal them elsewhere. I'd love for us to get Carrick back, and if we could lock up JVR long term, that'd be sweet. Plus getting Kapanen means our forward group is reborn almost. But I do like the idea, however the value is off.

I found the Leafs fans' version of this (you have to scroll down a page or two. Hockey is big up North). They're all pretty excited about getting Carlson to make their power play work and solidify their defense, but they're worried about how the Caps will possibly afford to re-sign JVR. I told them this would work out as a deadline rental on JVR. Man, that would be a great forward group for the Caps. It's not nearly as good a defense as they've had, but... Pittsburgh is the new measuring stick, so this roster is just one more fifty-point center away from a Cup.

Looks like consensus is I offered too much on the Leafs side of things but I based it on a few things, which may or may not be right:
- I rate Carlson pretty high based on things like his GAR values, being RHD (which Rielly sorely needs on top pair) and the limited market to secure a youngish RHD top 4. I also picked Carlson because he is a pending UFA and may be more available than others. Some say Leafs could wait and just get him as a UFA but these type of assets normally don't make it to July 1st.
- On the Leafs' side, Rychel is now of limited value to Leafs since he would need to pass waivers but is a cheap, solid bottom 6 asset to help Caps control Cap. JVR won't be re-signed by Leafs and they have a logjam of wingers already. Carrick is odd man out if Leafs get Carlson. They have Zaitsev and prospect Liljegren in minors. Kapanen may be the over-pay, he is a high value RW prospect. Anyway, I built the trade assuming Carlson is the top pair RHD Leafs need and that the market would demand that price, if no #1 picks are involved.

Carlson has, at times, been Washngton's #1 defenseman. Since they signed Niskannen, they take turns being on the top pair, but Niskannen gets more turns, I think because he's a little more physical, and meaner to opposing forwards. Carlson is better at power plays. As far as offensive stats go, he's perfectly capable.

I think we're shocked by how much value you're offering because the Caps never trade anybody away for anything, and JVR is a guy who, after so many rumors, Caps fans have come to see as unobtainable. I think the Caps right now are putting a lot of pressure on Jakub Vrana (same draft year as Kapanen, left wing) to succeed in the NHL right away, even though he's occasionally been benched in the minors for not backchecking enough, so adding a couple more solid offensive prospects would be great for Washington. On the other hand, the Caps couldn't beat the Penguins with three offensively brlliant right handed defensemen last Spring, so moving back to just one again seems a little bit painful....

But that's the salary cap, and that's an incredible forward corps. I think, if the Caps can't afford Carlson, they'd have to consider that deal even without JVR, who might return a late first or early second round draft pick and a couple of prospects in his own right. In that case, making the trade before the season starts to work to the Caps' advantage, as they start to save up cap space to add an RHD and potentially a center at the trade deadline.

I think Carlson for Carrick, Rychel, and Kapanen is pretty fair and mutually beneficial. That leaves the Caps about 4M under the salary cap, so they can add whoever is available later on defense. Risky, but they talk about wanting to get younger. This is a way to do so in grand fashion.