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All_Knowing

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Forum: Armchair-GM16 hours ago
Thread: Caps Retool
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>qc14</b></div><div>"Isn't trusted" isn't part of my evaluation of him as a player but is a pretty objective statement that affects how NHL franchises evaluate players. Caps fans did the same thing with Vrana and swearing that he would get moved for a first and look how that turned out.

The bigger thing is that we go through this song and dance every single time a rental could possibly be moved. THIS one is special and unlike the other 30 rentals moved over the last 5 years. They DEFINITELY are getting multiple firsts or top prospects or young NHL ready players. DeBrincat, Hanifin, Guentzel, Lindholm just from this year alone.

Want to swap out the first for McMichael for the first? Milano for TVR/Jensen? 4th for a 2nd? Sure. But the package for a rental of 1st + mediocre-in-a-good-way roster player + little extra draft capital is a pretty set in stone formula in the NHL</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Windjammer</b></div><div>Yup, at the TDL that might work. Asking for a TDL price for an entire year doesn't.

No one has said he's special or any different than any other top 6 player with a year of term. But teams don't trade players for things of no value to them. So, we're just saying that a unneeded, mediocre bottom six player isn't going to entice Winnipeg, you want him now, you need to offer the Jets a reason to do it.

Elsewise, the Jets just keep Ehlers and trade him at the TDL for a comparable or more suitable return if he doesn't resign.

Your forgetting that trades need to provide value for both sides and offering a player you want to get rid of but has no value to the other team, doesn't provide value.</div></div>

I mean, the above trade is pretty spot on to what Cat got over the 2023 summer...Cat (25 years old AND came with an extension) was traded for a serviceable bottom 6 winger (2.5m), a defensive prospect who at 21 already needed a change of scenery (and at BEST is going to be a bottom pairing nhl player), a late 1st (assuming it will be Boston's 2024 1st), and a 4th. The above trade is for a 28yo rental who doesn't have a great track-record and the return is a serviceable middle 6 winger (1.9m), a middle 1st (17oa), and a 4th. So your point about "at the TDL that might work" isn't valid.

For your point about not being valuable to the other team - sure, that makes sense. Every team has needs. Since you said the Jets would need help on the backend, take out Milano and add in Jensen (or TVR). And boom, there you have it. A top 4 RHD (probably worth a ~2nd), 17oa, and a 4th.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 9:47 a.m.
Thread: Offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jazzykiwi</b></div><div>I don’t think Lappy fits as a 3C or 4C and his ceiling seems to 2C, and I don’t think he’s ready for that, so I think one more year in Hershey would do him well. But yes I agree they do need a 1C. I just don’t see any true 1Cs that aren’t over 30 who are available in UFA, or who wouldn’t cost Leonard to acquire via trade. So I think taking a chance on a young player that just put up close to 40 points would be solid option. Strome seems to still be improving and I think he could put up 80 points next year with more talent. Perfetti could maybe get 60 pts, CMM maybe 40-45 pts. If you had that kind of center production it wouldn’t be elite, but still pretty good.

I like the versatility lindholm brings. Great defensive forward and gave off guy. Could easily play C or wing and based on his defensive and play driving skills, I think he could be a great option to help ovi too. We all know ovi doesn’t do well in the forecheck. So getting a guy like that I think would be great. Plus he’d be awesome in carberys man on man system.

I think miro needs another year and Amadio would be a solid bottom 6 guy</div></div>

Banking on all 3 centers having career years (monster years compared to what they had in the past) is rarely a good strategy for teams to do...while those numbers aren't "out of this world", they all would be having career years, which means the Caps offense would be having a monster year, which imo, I don't think 1-2 guys could change that.

I 50% agree, 50% disagree with your thoughts on Lappy. He definitely does not fit the 4c role. I agree his ceiling seems to be a 2c, but certainly not there yet. That being said, he definitely deserves a spot next year. He jumped into play this year and put up decent production and did not seem "outmatched" by the speed/physicality of the NHL. 22 points in 51 games is pretty good - compare that to McM who had 33 points in 80 games...big difference. I have never been a McM fan (unlike most Caps fans), but I think the Caps should package McM up and try to get a top 6 forward.

I just think Lindholm is going to get so overpaid, and I don't want the Caps to be the team that falls for it.

Agreed - Miro needs another year.
Forum: Washington CapitalsTue. at 11:21 a.m.
Thread: 2023-24 Season Thread
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>perrystreett</b></div><div>1. Where do we expect the team and GMBM to go from here? At a weird crossroads that I think is uncommon with the amount of cap space that should open up, enough young talent with some veteran talent and leadership, if we add a couple of good pieces we could potentially make a run but we would have to jeopardize our future even more. Coming into the season and at the trade deadline I wanted to solely focus on the future and sell as much as we could. Now, I want to add two top 6 forwards and try to compete.

2. Marner is my most wanted target we desperately need high end skill, I also would love a Stevie reunion for his speed and flexibility

3. I did not watch as many games this year as I normally do, do we think this Ovi is here to stay? (Lazy and out of shape imo, almost impossible to create offense or drive play when you're standing still the entire game). I see two options for him, 1. Winning still drives him and he'll get in shape and come back better or 2. He won his cup all he cares about now is passing gretzky. Unfortunately I think its the latter.

4. Based on Strome's comments about how much work oshie puts into playing and Oshie staying out last on the ice for a goodbye, do we think he retires? I hate to see another caps legend go out not on their own terms like backy but I think its best for the team and his day to day life.

5. I like most of the pieces on our D and thought AA played well at times in this series, I think our best bet would be moving Jensen if there are any takers and upgrade with a more physical and responsible RHD</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>qc14</b></div><div>1. I expect GMBM to keep on the "retool around Ovi/Carlson" train but be slightly more aggressive than he has been the last two years due to increased cap and honestly better assets to move. I think that's the right strategy to take. There's going to be pain when Ovi retires no matter what and full on tear-downs aren't exactly the guaranteed successes they once were.

2. Marner and Ehlers for me. Laine/Norris/Zegras are the next tier

3. Don't think he's lazy or really "out of shape" so much as he's 38 and had basically two competent teammates on offense in Strome and Carlson. It just happens, we need to adapt around it

4. I think it's 60/40 right now he retires. Also think GMBM will be a little more forceful after how the Backstrom stuff played out

5. I would like some more physicality on D as well but the problem is that they don't have a 2nd driver behind Carlson. Fehervary and to a lesser extent Sandin are fine complimentary top-4 guys but I really think they need a true Orlov replacement. Ideally would be an RD but get the BPA and work around the handedness later</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NoVaSpartan</b></div><div>Pesce comes to mind for me here. Feels like the type of player that could bring some defensive stability to Sandin and allow him to be a little more aggressive in the offensive zone.</div></div>

1. Agreed - I expect the retool to continue and GMBM pushes to compete. I do think he finds a way to get a top 6 forward and a top 4 defender. He has too much pressure not to after saying that is his goal the last 2 seasons.

2. Marner would be my #1. TOR is a toxic place to play, and I think Marner thrives wherever he goes next. My question is - what would a trade for him look like? McM, Jensen, 2024 1st and more?

3. Agreed with qc14 - Ovi is 38 years old...that is OLD! Hard to lead a team when he is 38 and playing with average players. Plus, not having a true 1c doesn't help. The Caps relied on him to score, and when he did, the Caps usually won. When he didn't, the Caps would score 1-2 goals (if that) and struggle. Goes back to the top 6 forward - if you can get 1-2 of those players, that would help immensely.

4. Oshie said he'd like to play next year, but would need a gurantee his back can be fixed. I personally would like him to retire and I hope GMBM is more forceful about the situation. Having Backy "retire" a handful of games into the season really hurt the Caps (both in terms of a top center retiring and having all that cap space unused).

5. Pesce comes to mind as well for that RHD. Tanev would be another (cheaper option). What would a contract look for Pesce?
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 9:58 a.m.
Thread: Offseason
Where is Lappy? He will definitely get full-time minutes next season.

I love the Kings trade. Depends on how LA sees Kuemper, but to me, I would be totally fine for a trade like that.

A few other thoughts:
1. The Caps current roster (and this roster), they are missing a 1c. Strome did an amazing job this year, but imo, he is a very solid 2c. McM is a 3c (similar to Eller I'd say). Lappy is a 3c. Dowd is a great 4c. But that leaves a 1c out of the picture. Do you see Perfetti projected as a 1c in the near-term? Would be hard for me to see that happening...Point is - I'd rather trade for someone better (obviously easier said than done). But if you are going to give up a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd....I would want someone who comes in and takes over that 1c position.
2. Would rather use the money from Lindholm for someone better. The dude was not good this year. Plus, I think he will get more on the open market (which is a mistake too).
3. I agree RHD is needed - Matt Roy would be in my hopefuls to fill that need.
4. While I do not see this happening, Miro could get a chance next year at full-time, which could save you some money (he would replace Amadio). Again, I think he could use another full year in Hershey but it is a possibility.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 9:33 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 3:01 p.m.
Thread: Capitals make the move for the future and get younger
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BoringBrianMacLellan</b></div><div>Again, I'm not trying to directly compare the two here. I'm well aware of their ages, who they play with, all that jazz. But that's how I would view it because frankly, I wouldn't want to come close to giving up the value that would be needed to trade for Zegras. Amazing player, but he's not worth mortgaging the future of a franchise for. And that's what Leonard is at the moment.

Sidenote, Strome really mostly played with Ovi on the PP this season, which was awful. Ovi's center this year for a majority of the time was McMichael. Stromer bounced around between the middle six wingers for a majority of the year and actually really showed that he can drive play on his own, which was a pleasant surprise. Didn't see much of that last season.</div></div>

He was forced to drive play because he was playing with horrible wingers most of the time lol
Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 12:34 p.m.
Thread: Capitals make the move for the future and get younger
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GiggywithGibby</b></div><div>If you want Zegras, the offer starts with Leonard, you don't get high end talent for spare parts, and Zegras doesn't need to find a new home nor has he been demoted down the lineup. He played one game at 3C when he came back from injury to limit his ice time and then jumped straight back into the top 6.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Logicalicesports</b></div><div>CMC and Iorio are far from Spare parts. I personally dislike Zegras, but I could see the Capitals thinking about kicking the tires. There is no chance the Capitals give you Leonard for Zegras. If you want Leonard its Zegras +.

I can understand why you are high on him but there is no way you will be getting any teams best prospect besides like Toronto or Florida to get Zegras.</div></div>

While I couldn't disagree more with "Giggy" calling McM and Iorio spare parts (lol that is so far from the truth but okay buddy), I do agree with "Giggy" on the offer above not being enough. Do I think Zegras is worth the asking price -&gt; no, not at all. I think he is very overrated and a second coming of Kuzy. But like it is said above, ANA has no reason to trade him and therefore, the asking price would be high...too high for really any team to be interested I'd say.
But thinking the asking price starts with Leonard (and possibly more) is absurd, laughable, and total bias...
Forum: Washington CapitalsApr. 23 at 12:42 p.m.
Thread: 2023-24 Season Thread
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>qc14</b></div><div>Unfortunately all of the chatter on Utah (including from Friedman, who IMO is the only reliable source for this kind of stuff) is that they are going to be big players and almost certainly spend to the cap. Not only does it make Keller probably not possible, but I think they will be in on some guys the Caps could be interested in. I agree we need more physicality, and that's honestly why I would prefer an upgrade over NAK (and possibly Malenstyn) -- both of them hit, but don't really have the mean streak that a guy like Hathaway did. I like Bertuzzi fine but he would be in that tier with for me Monahan and Tofolli (or honestly Mantha) where he's a secondary guy who needs to play with top players that we just don't have.</div></div>

Ah got it - didn't see that about Utah...unfortunate as I really like Keller.

And totally agree with you regarding Beck/NAK - they hit but don't have that mean streak. Caps are missing that - it really became prevalent last game when TVR was fighting the whole Rangers team...yes they didn't know that was happening and eventually came back out, but imo, the old Caps team would NEVER let that happen...
Forum: Washington CapitalsApr. 23 at 12:14 p.m.
Thread: 2023-24 Season Thread
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>qc14</b></div><div>1. I don't see any real urgency w/ Kuemper TBH. Overpaid -- certainly -- but they're in a spot where they don't NEED the dollars and as you said getting out of a contract like that will be a pain no matter how you do it. Shepard has been great in Hershey but looked overmatched in the NHL to me and I don't think he's a goalie-of-the-future type that you need to clear room for. Stevenson I think does have an NHL future but can take one more year in Hershey. If something comes along do it but not a top priority for me.

2, 4, 5. If they're serious about competing, which I think they should be, you need one legit top line forward and one legit top pair defenseman at the minimum. Move that first rounder for the forward. Still has more value than a real contender's first but right in the spot of this year's draft where the quality (supposedly) falls off a cliff. Best case scenario IMO is a playoff collapse leads to Marner or Ehlers finally shaking free. While I'm still lower on Zegras than most, I think he's the type of bet you make if the price is right. PLD? BUF might be looking to consolidate some of their younger pieces as well, although I'm not enamored with any of them. Josh Norris is the one I keep coming back to as making the most sense for all parties. Forward UFA options aren't very exciting beyond Reinhart and Guentzel. Would stay far far away from Stamkos, Lindholm, Stephenson, Marchessault, Monahan, Toffoli. Not convinced by Sutter as an internal promotion, I'd look for another checking UFA to upgrade NAK. I'm making McM, Lappy, Miro available in the right deal as well.

On D, there's still enough quality in UFA even though I'm very annoyed VGK resigned Hanifin. Pesce, Skjei, Walker would be my first choices. Roy, Montour would be nice as well and guys like Tanev, DeMelo, Carrier, Dillon aren't top 2 guys but are great depth options.

3, 6. I think you can find someone who will give you assets for Jensen. I would keep TVR, I don't think they're finding someone better and cheaper in UFA. Bear is in the Kuemper boat for me -- not great but not THE problem and not worth the headache of trying to move. Iorio I think can challenge but hasn't done enough to not have to fight for a spot. I'm also not so impressed with Sandin (and a long-time AA hater) that making the move at LD is beyond the question for me. Get the best guy you can and make the other moves around that guy's handedness

I'm really bummed that BC lost the Natty and Leonard isn't signing, because I think he would have been a massive help next year. I think you're looking at this lineup in an ideal world:

X - Strome - X
Ovi - McM - Wilson
Milano - Lapierre - Protas
Malenstyn - Dowd - X
Miro

Fehervary - Carlson
Sandin - X
X - TVR
AA - Iorio/Bear

Lindgren
Kuemper
Shepard/Stevenson</div></div>

Thanks for the response here - I do agree with pretty much everything you said above.

Kuemper / Bear being moved would be fine if the right deal came (similar mindset with Kuzy - getting a 3rd for him with retention was definitely the right deal).

Caps should 100% be looking to compete - I truly believe they have the right balance of young vs veterans - they just need more skill (easier said than done).

Regarding the players you mentioned - I couldn't agree more with your defender list. For forwards, Marner / Ehlers would be great. Not so high on Zegras. Norris possibly. Reinhart possibly, but doubt he signs with the Caps. Same with Guentzel.
I'd also throw in Keller. I am very curious to see what the Coyotes (UTAH HC) does here. Are they trying to compete? I would offer a very large package for Keller &amp; Schmaltz...
What would that package look like, I'm not sure...but off the top of my head, something like Chesley, McM (or Lappy), Jensen, 2024 1st, 2025 1st, and a 2nd...probably would need more? Idk.

Regarding the left side, I am also not convinced Sandin is the best option here...I will say though, AA has impressed me recently. I think he has played very well and if it continues, I would be fine with him being on the 3rd pair (while playing 2nd pairing minutes in a pinch).

Another thought here...I think it is becoming more and more prevalent that the Caps don't have as much physicality throughout the lineup. Maybe I am used to the old Caps where they were really big and tough, but imo, the defenders aren't physical enough (besides Fehervary). The forwards (besides Wilson and Beck) aren't quite physical either...
Am I crazy to think that signing a guy like Bertuzzi on a 1 year deal wouldn't be a bad thing. Yes he has struggled this year, especially offensively, but his play has picked up recently and TOR isn't the easiest place to play...I think he would fit nicely on a 3rd line with Milano and Lappy, which would move Protas down to the 4th line
Forum: Washington CapitalsApr. 23 at 10:25 a.m.
Thread: 2023-24 Season Thread
Looking ahead, I have a few high priority questions for this offseason (which imo, it is the biggest offseason in a very long time):

In no particularly order...
1. What do the Caps do with Kuemper?
- High price for a backup...a few options would be trade (with a sweetener and probably retention) or buy-out (which would be costly down the road)…whatever the Caps do, Kuemper should not be back
2. What do the Caps do with their 2024 1st? Use it as a package piece?
- I'd use it in a package to get a young forward (not totally sure who though...)
3. What do the Caps do with Bear?
- Only 1x~2m but every cent counts I'd say.
4. What is the overall need for the Caps?
- I'd say a top 6 forward (maybe 2 at this point) and a top 4 defender (preferably a RHD)
5. Since FA class is pretty weak, what trade options are out there?
- I could see Pesce being a RHD signing (although it might have to be an overpay since WSH might not be a very desired place with an older team looking towards a potential rebuild/retool). Outside of that, I don't see any other FA signings that intrigue me...Maybe Debrusk at the right price? I'm not sure
6. Going off of that, what do the Caps do about their RHDs?
- Jensen / TVR / Bear / Iorio -&gt; who stays, who goes? Is Iorio ready? Imo, I see Jensen traded / TVR on the 3rd pairing / Bear I have no idea / Iorio stays in Hershey one more year to develop more.

Am I missing anything? Please feel free to answer any of these questions - would love to hear other people's thoughts