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BeLeafer91

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Forum: NHL TradesMar. 10 at 2:04 p.m.
Thread: (MIN/TOR) - Dewar for Ovchinnikov, 2026 4th (TOR)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NorthernLeafsFan05</b></div><div>What is your point? Every prospect you just named is better than Ovchinnikov, and you even admit that Ovchinnikov is a project with slim odds of making the NHL. Dewar is a bonafide NHL player who helps us now. Ovchinnikov is a guy who may help us in a few years to less effect. Your critique of this trade makes zero sense</div></div>

The point is that Leafs are trading away top picks and a few top prospects, so the only way for the Leafs to get young impact players is to find hidden gems in the later rounds, typically these will be projects. I don't like moving out Ovchinnikov b/c of the all the Leafs' "project prospects" he had the most most raw talent and the highest ceiling (however slim the chances). The prospects that I mentioned, Steeves, Abruzzese, and Ellis are older and getting to an age (except Ellis) where they aren't prospects anymore, trending towards career minor leaguer.
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 20, 2022 at 11:33 p.m.
Thread: (TOR/VAN) - Dermott for 3rd
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>Yeah that is about exactly what I expected.
Canucks fans you will mostly like Dermott. Dont fall for the hysteria around him that all Leafs depth D get, he is a good dman. His main issue is that he never grew out of the rookie mistakes phase and took his game to the next level. If he is your 3rd LD you should be very happy with it (and even if he needs to play a few games as a 2d bc of an injury). Btw he is much better on his left, but can pinch for RD.</div></div>

Pretty much agree but...
Dermott really isn't that mistake prone, he had a big mistake in playoff game but overall Dermott doesn't make that many mistakes-not Jake Gardiner.
The bigger issue is that Leafs had Rielly, Brodie and Muzzin ahead, and Sandin/Liljegren is NHL ready, has huge upside and needs to play in bottom 6 role to gain experience. Then Holl was entrusted in a shutdown role in the top 4. Arguably Leafs should have given Dermott a bigger chance to play ahead of Holl as he has more upside than Holl but isn't as suited to playing in a shutdown role and is more risk taking.
The potential upside to be a top 4 is still there. I think the Leafs undersold-Dubas probably traded Dermott to the team with the best opportunity for Dermott to succeed like the Leivo trade. But Dermott is an established an NHL regular, fairly young sure thing bottom six ready to play in a top 4 role and there's a pretty decent chance he realizes his potential as a top 4 defenceman.
Hence, Vancouver definitely won this trade-might already be one of Vancouver's best overall defenceman. Definitely worth at least a 2nd round pick, or 2 3rd round picks.
Btw I say that with the view that Quinn Hughes is an overrated Tyson Barrie/Jake Gardiner extreme liability and Canucks would be wise to trade him away. From watching the Leafs play the Canucks I was aghast by how awful Hughes was defensively, with his salary, I think it'd be very hard for a team to win a cup with Quinn Hughes.
(I say this as Leafs fan who's suffered from Gardiner, Barrie and Leafs defence in general).
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 20, 2022 at 3:01 p.m.
Thread: Surgical Fix Keep Dermott
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JGDD11</b></div><div>Holl is a cap dump and wouldn’t even play on minnesota</div></div>
Holl is better than Kulikov and possibly Merrill. His possession stats are pretty decent and the Leafs are playing Holl 20+ min a night against opposing teams best players, he's more than capable in a bottom 6 sheltered role.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JayTea</b></div><div>Yeah, was going to say the Wild are looking for a 2nd for McBain so in what world is Holl worth 2 2nds. Kokkonen surely doesn't make up the value, the Wild have a bunch of LD prospects so not exactly a position of need.</div></div>
Based on price of defenceman at this time of the year and Holl being a #4/5 defenceman that makes 2M. Could always send Abruzzese (also played in Olympics) back the other way but I don't think it's needed.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 7, 2021 at 1:54 p.m.
Thread: Tweaks for Cup Run
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Swedenheim</b></div><div>Kerfoot is more than a slight downgrade, no disrespect intended, Rakell has been top 2 in scoring for the Ducks for years now, and he is a bonafide top 6 winger, he also has a really low cap hit for his performance as opposed to Kerfoot who is a bit overpaid</div></div>

I don't follow the Ducks or Rakell but going by stats he looks like a middle 6 or secondary top 6 winger. Rakell has been producing at an average of 52 pts per 82 game season for the last three seasons, gets over 18min icetime, and 62% OZ starts. Kerfoot has lower production but keep in mind that he's been playing mostly a 3C checking role in Toronto, with 14min of ice time, and 52% OZ starts. In his first two seasons in Colorado, Kerfoot scored at 44pt pace, playing top six winger role, with 14min of ice time, 55% OZ starts. Hence, I argued that Kerfoot is only a minor downgrade. I think Kerfoot is worth two 2nd round picks or 2nd plus prospect on his own.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 31, 2019 at 5:15 p.m.
Thread: Getting Under the Cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BigDog91</b></div><div>This a joke right?</div></div>

Perhaps I'm wrong.....but the rationale was:
Weber is 33 with like an 8M contract that goes till he's 40. His contract will be ugly in a couple years and then much worse. The contract will be a drag on Montreal's cap in the future, when presumably Montreal will be better, further along in their rebuild and could really use the cap space. My idea is to trade cap isssues, Toronto gets relief today while Montreal gets relief down the road. Weber's trade value, is a top defenceman with 2-3 years of good hockey left but hampered with salary baggage that limits the number of potential suitors which decreases his trade value.
Hence, it's difficult to gauge Weber's trade value.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 4, 2018 at 1:45 p.m.
Thread: Final Pieces
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Why would the Ducks make that trade? And why do the Leafs want to trade so much for a Dman in 30s with a big contract to age 40. IMO, Montreal would give Weber away just to get cap space. Despite trading for Weber the defence is overall worse with all the guys leaving.</div></div>

The Ducks don't score enough goals to be a serious playoff team(GF=114, 10th in Western Conference, they also need to cut down on GA but that's another story). When you look at their roster its obvious they're lacking top 6 left wing scorer. JVR is just that, he's on pace for 34 goals despite only averaging just over 14 min per game. I concede that the return I suggested was a bit generous, perhaps swapping the second 1st round pick for a 2nd round pick would be more fair. Also Ritchie looks like he could be a bust for a 10th overall pick, most likely to be a tough bottom six forward. So he would be only be a slight upgrade over Rychel. I think the Ducks on paper at least are a serious cup contender if they can add one or two top six left wingers.

Despite Weber's age, top 2 defenceman are hard to come by. A team acquiring him could probably get 4 plus good seasons out of him. They'll get a significant return for him but they'll need to retain some of his salary. I've even read some suggest Nylander be traded as part of a package for him but I think that's a nonstarter for the reasons you stated. I think a somewhat raw top four defenceman in Zaitsev, plus Borgman, Gauthier and top draft picks is more reasonable.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 23, 2017 at 10:24 a.m.
Thread: Improved Leafs
The Blues are in need of secondary scoring and 2nd line center. Bozak and Van Reimsdyk addresses those needs while not blowing their limited cap space. The Leafs get an upgrade in Parayko, who's also a two years younger, 6'-6" and has a heavy shot. Bozak and JVR only have 1 year left on their contract and it's questionable whether the Leafs would resign them anyway; ie what term and annual salary would the Leafs have to give JVR. Trading away those guys frees up space for the likes of Leivo and Rychel, the Leafs won't know what they have unless they play them. Berglund's contract is particularly bad but Zaitsev's 7 year 4.5M per deal is risky as he may not pan out as hoped and he'd be in his 30's towards the end of his deal. Yakupov is only 23 and could realize his raw potential with a change in scenery, Babcock's coaching and playing with Matthews.

Similarly, Dallas is also weak on the wing and has an abundance on defence. Leafs get a young right handed NHL ready defenceman that projects as a top four defenceman. The trade as proposed is probably a bit skewed in Leafs favour with the draft picks, might have to include Soshnikov.

The Leafs could trade for the likes of Colin Miller for the 3rd pairing but it's wiser to just sign a UFA like Franson.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 16, 2017 at 12:40 a.m.
Thread: Leveraging Cap Space
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aus3kun</b></div><div>1. Why would you make that trade with STL? What do you gain? Parayko? I would rather stick with Zaitsev and trade Riemsdyk for Vatanen or something!?
2. Florida wont make that trade, as they would have to protect Carrick.
3. Why would you want Despres (LHD)?</div></div>

Parayko is a significant upgrade over Zaitsev. He's two years younger, 6'-6", has big shot, and already established himself as stud on defence. While Zaitsev is very raw (not like there's a high ceiling), there could be another couple years of growing pains (see Gardiner). Plus, he may not even work out as hoped, and he carries a risky 7 year contract at 4.5M/yr until he's 32. Perhaps, I overpaid for Parayko and maybe the Leafs could get more in return, but St. Louis really values him. The only reason why I think the Leafs could pry Parayko away from St. Louis is because they have a lot of bad contracts, are tight against the cap, have desperate need for secondary scoring and centre, and (given the age of their star players) I think their window to win a cup is closing soon.

Assuming Florida will protect three defenceman, it will be Ekblad, Yandle (NMC), Demers (M-NMC). Its been confirmed that Yandle hasn't been asked to waive his contract, not sure if they can peddle Demers. Even if they were able to get rid of Demers, then they can only protect one of Mark Pysyk or Alex Petrovic. Hence, at least one of them if not both of them should be available. Sure Carrick would get exposed but he's far less likely to be claimed. I think Carrick is overrated, he's awful on defence and frequent liability, sure he can move the puck, but provides little offence at the NHL level, long story short, it's not that hard to find another Carrick in the league. Thus I believe Florida would ideally like to move one of Pysyk or Petrovic for a roster player that doesn't require protection but that's hard to find or at least package of prospects and picks.

Despres is a big, reliable, physical defenceman who can move the puck and has a wealth of playoff experience. Sure he's left handed defenceman but the price to acquire him should be cheaper than Vatanen or Manson and the Leafs could always just sign Franson (RHD). Marincin could get claimed by Vegas anyways. So the 3rd pairing could be (Despres/Franson). I think Despres becomes expendable given the Duck's influx of young top defenceman ready to break into the NHL and although Perron's cap hit is similar his contract expires after next season.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 16, 2016 at 12:54 a.m.
Thread: Turning a New Leaf
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafaholic</b></div><div><i><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeLeafer91</b></div><div><i><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>leafs1967again</b></div><div><i>I find that Buffalo trade pretty decent. Not sure others will agree.

Why is NSH trading a 1st for Nolan Vesey lol. He is terrible. So is the FLA offer - FLA wouldn't touch that.</i></div></div>
Nashville is having trouble signing their prospect Jimmy Vesey, Nolan's older brother who's actually good. There's rumours that Leafs will sign him and Nashville could cry foul over tampering. So instead of that mess, just trade Nolan Vesey to them for 1st round pick.
From last season, it appears that Florida is keen on winning now. Bozak and VanRiemsdyk makes them much better up front and they both only have one year left on their contracts but could be resigned. I think all they'd need is a top four UFA defenceman.
Huberdeau Barkov Jagr
Bjugstad Trochek VanRiemsdyk
Jokinen Bozak Smith

Also:
Detroit is trying to dump Datsyuk's salary, Robidas's 3M cap hit can be written off like the Leafs did last season, Cowen's contract can be bought out at reported (something along the lines of) 650K cap credit this season and 750K cap hit the season after.

Chicago is also trying to dump Bickell's contract, they demoted him to AHL last season. Hence the draft picks.

Not too confident about Edmonton trade, though looking at their lineup I think Hunwick would fit nicely with their young blueline and play more when needed. Yakupov who has underachieved is rumoured to be available but I'm not sure what the Edmonton would want. I figured Kadri after comparing stats.</i></div></div>
So because the Leafs may have "tapered" Nashville gives us a 1st????</i></div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Juice</b></div><div><i><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafaholic</b></div><div><i><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeLeafer91</b></div><div><i><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>leafs1967again</b></div><div><i>I find that Buffalo trade pretty decent. Not sure others will agree.

Why is NSH trading a 1st for Nolan Vesey lol. He is terrible. So is the FLA offer - FLA wouldn't touch that.</i></div></div>
Nashville is having trouble signing their prospect Jimmy Vesey, Nolan's older brother who's actually good. There's rumours that Leafs will sign him and Nashville could cry foul over tampering. So instead of that mess, just trade Nolan Vesey to them for 1st round pick.
From last season, it appears that Florida is keen on winning now. Bozak and VanRiemsdyk makes them much better up front and they both only have one year left on their contracts but could be resigned. I think all they'd need is a top four UFA defenceman.
Huberdeau Barkov Jagr
Bjugstad Trochek VanRiemsdyk
Jokinen Bozak Smith

Also:
Detroit is trying to dump Datsyuk's salary, Robidas's 3M cap hit can be written off like the Leafs did last season, Cowen's contract can be bought out at reported (something along the lines of) 650K cap credit this season and 750K cap hit the season after.

Chicago is also trying to dump Bickell's contract, they demoted him to AHL last season. Hence the draft picks.

Not too confident about Edmonton trade, though looking at their lineup I think Hunwick would fit nicely with their young blueline and play more when needed. Yakupov who has underachieved is rumoured to be available but I'm not sure what the Edmonton would want. I figured Kadri after comparing stats.</i></div></div>
So because the Leafs may have "tapered" Nashville gives us a 1st????</i></div></div>

hahaha,..yes, obviously. "Sorry Nashville for speaking with your player and telling him to sign with us...here...accept his no-skill brother as our apology and allow us to take that onerous 1st round pick off your hands."</i></div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoovTrain</b></div><div><i>After reading this, my eyes hurt.

Seriously, Kadri for Yakupov?

I love Sam Reinhart... But I would walk up one side of him and down the other wearing stilletto heels to get to Auston Matthews.

I see you slipped Poile a roofie to get him to make that trade.</i></div></div>

There's no ideal option for Predators on Jimmy Vesey. Option A: Let him walk as a UFA. Option B: Trade his rights to Toronto for a draft pick Option C: Acquire his brother at a cost. Nashville is ready compete now not in the future, Jimmy Vesey is ready contribute now. So paying extra to acquire his brother is far better than getting a low draft pick for him. Poile won't be thrilled to make this trade but its better than losing him. Either way any Vesey trade will be dressed up as "hockey deal". Also the Vesey camp will have to be okay with this arrangement so that upon completing the trade Jimmy Vesey doesn't say anything about tampering. This is assuming that the Leafs have talked to him in secret.

Also I made some changes and tweaks.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 14, 2016 at 12:16 p.m.
Thread: Turning a New Leaf
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>leafs1967again</b></div><div><i>I find that Buffalo trade pretty decent. Not sure others will agree.

Why is NSH trading a 1st for Nolan Vesey lol. He is terrible. So is the FLA offer - FLA wouldn't touch that.</i></div></div>
Nashville is having trouble signing their prospect Jimmy Vesey, Nolan's older brother who's actually good. There's rumours that Leafs will sign him and Nashville could cry foul over tampering. So instead of that mess, just trade Nolan Vesey to them for 1st round pick.
From last season, it appears that Florida is keen on winning now. Bozak and VanRiemsdyk makes them much better up front and they both only have one year left on their contracts but could be resigned. I think all they'd need is a top four UFA defenceman.
Huberdeau Barkov Jagr
Bjugstad Trochek VanRiemsdyk
Jokinen Bozak Smith

Also:
Detroit is trying to dump Datsyuk's salary, Robidas's 3M cap hit can be written off like the Leafs did last season, Cowen's contract can be bought out at reported (something along the lines of) 650K cap credit this season and 750K cap hit the season after.

Chicago is also trying to dump Bickell's contract, they demoted him to AHL last season. Hence the draft picks.

Not too confident about Edmonton trade, though looking at their lineup I think Hunwick would fit nicely with their young blueline and play more when needed. Yakupov who has underachieved is rumoured to be available but I'm not sure what the Edmonton would want. I figured Kadri after comparing stats.