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CMcAvoy73

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Forum: Armchair-GM11 hours ago
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 7:04 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>FunMustBeAlways</b></div><div>Duchene and Stone trades are the best recent comps

- Duchene retrieved a first and 2 B/C prospects as well as a 1st conditional on him re-upping with CBJ (which you can't do anymore but there's still value there)
- Stone retrieved a 2nd, a bottom-six player and (at the time) a top-20ish prospect in the league in Brannstrom

Prospect + pick is the going rate here based on comps and value wise, since Lysell isn't nearly at the level Brannstrom was at in 2019, the pick has to be higher than a measly 2nd. That 1st is gonna be late anyway so it's not like you're trading away a top-15 pick.




On top of that:

- Nick Foligno (who is trash compared to Hertl) got a 1st and two 4ths last year at the deadline
- David Savard (who is also decent but trash compared to Hertl) got a 1st, a 3rd and a 4th at last years deadline a well.
- Palmieri and 4 points from Travis Zajac cost a 1st
- A couple years before that, Taylor Hall fetched 18th overall, a good D prospect, a 3rd and a former 1st rounder in Nick Merkley
- And many more examples of lesser players getting rich returns




But as per usual you're probably gonna tirelessly refute everything I say no matter what so me writing this was likely a huge waste of my time.</div></div>

But stone was a different category of player. Top five winger in the league without question. Elite defensively. Fantastic offensively. Back to back to back runner up for the selke (hertl has never received a single 5th place vote), top 12 in hart voting back to back to back years. Really not a good place to start the conversation.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 6:55 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rob32sjsharks</b></div><div>never said HOF draft class,
by by all scouting takes the sharks have added a ton of quality talent in the last 2 drafts, but your right we are still 2-3 years from them making a serious impact at the NHL level and that’s when the we will see the truth.
i did say 1-2 very easily could be allstar caliber and 4-5 will be top 6/middle 6 guys
the only guy who could be a potential HOF is Eklund and even that’s a reach.
i have high hopes for my teams prospect so does every fan.
i also understand of the 6-8 guys i am high on if 4 make a substantial contribution to the team ( .5 ppg) i would be overjoyed.
i am not expecting a Crosby or McDavid from the sharks prospect pool, i am hoping for players similar to toffoli or strome or Kerfoot, or Goodrow out of our prospects not named Eklund.
Hertl is Elite and you can’t change my mind.
however I think our definitions of elite differ and that could be the issue.
your definition of Elite i feel is HOF worthy player and yes Hertl is not a HOF worthy player.
my definition of elite is top 15 in each category in any given year (LW, C, RW, LD, RD G) and I don’t think you could find 15 C who are playing better than Hertl right now.

and to your argument about 2nd round players, yes only about 40-50% of 2-4th round players ever play a game in the NHL and only about 15-20% are ever impactful players and maybe 2-3% ever wind up Elite or HOF status (if not less)
but the players the sharks picked in 2020 have all progressed really well and have shown NHL caliber skill. but that does not mean they will be NHL high caliber guys.

to me the sharks have 1 Prospects who i see making top line elite status (Eklund) and a few i see making it to the top 6 or at the very least middle 6 Bordeleau Coe and Robins. Weisblat Gushin could end up middle 6 to bottom 6
Reedy and Raska look like solid bottom 6 guys who could surprise.
excluding Eklund i would be shocked if we get more than 1-2 30 goal seasons and any more than 4-5 60+ point seasons from
any of those guys. but 30-50 point seasons from depth players is the difference between fringe playoff team and cup contender.</div></div>

I certainly don’t think HOF caliber is needed to be elite. Let’s go with top 15 at position. I think that’s a little light, but so be it. Hertl is 23rd in scoring over the last four seasons (i know he’s on a pace better than this year, but he’s still only 18th), and I think there are guys behind him that are better. Eichel and Malkin have missed time due to injury. I think Hertl is like 25th or something in terms of points per game over that stretch. He’s very good, but not elite. He’s a bad teams number 1, and a good teams number 2.

The prospect hope is still a bit of a reach. Chances are two of those guys make it. Every team can have high hopes on their prospects, because they tend to be the top end guys in the lower leagues. Lysell is probably the bruins top prospect. Everything about him points to him being really good. Guess what? He’s probably not going to be a good NHL player. Christ, I remember bruins fans saying that Jesse Gabrielle couldn’t be traded because he was too good after exploding in junior. Now he’s in the Australian league. Hockeydb doesn’t even register that league. That’s just the nature of prospects. I’m sure Canes fans thought Jake Bean was the next big thing. He sucked. Don Sweeney wanted to take Fabbro over McAvoy. Thank god he didn’t. The vast majority of highly touted prospects just don’t make it, so what I find crazy is when you say, these guys WILL make it. It’s just silly.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 5:50 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rob32sjsharks</b></div><div>no you didn’t, you just argued using opinion and a few random things to make my argument look like it holds no value.

for instance belittling Bordeleau saying he’s 6th in scoring with Michigan, but you forgot to mention they have 7 1st round picks on their team and Bordeleau is outpacing or holding ground with all of them!</div></div>

None of what i used was opinion. It was all based in fact. Now, I’ll concede, there’s a chance that you’re right about everything here. Maybe the sharks are in great shape and all these prospects are going to be hall of famers some day. But can you see how from the outside, it kind of looks like homerism?
Hertl is elite! Well the evidence doesn’t really show that. He’s a good player, and he’s having a great season, but he’s only had one 50 point season, only one 30 goal season (same year), never gotten any award votes, not in the top 50 for points per games over the last 4 seasons, never lead his team in points, only one top 50 in goals or points over that stretch. I could go on and on.
But he’s going to get this unprecedented return you say. Why, everyone asks, thats never happened before? Because I want it to!
The last two years of drafts were awesome!!!! Even though no ones really impacted the NHL yet, and there’s no way to have any clue.

Just seems like you manage to spin everything into a great situation for the sharks
In reality deadline returns aren’t usually unprecedented, most 2nd round picks in the NCAA don’t wind up being impact players, and there’s way too many players that outpace Hertl offensively, and are better defensively for him to be elite.