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Christian17

Member Since
Feb. 8, 2017
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Anaheim Ducks
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Edmonton Oilers
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Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 16, 2020 at 2:38 p.m.
Thread: What are the Ducks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>shmoeman</b></div><div>Henrique is a great 3C and an ok 2C, not an above average 2C</div></div>

Look at Hockey-viz's heat maps on him, compared to the rest of his team he was very good. The Ducks were +6% better at offense and defense when he was on the ice, he's a very good two-way player. For some comparables: Tyler Seguin's team is +8% better at offense with him on, -8% worse at defense. Kevin Hayes' team is +1% better at offense &amp; -5% worse at defense. Sean Monahan -2% worse at offense, -13% worse at defense. Alex Wennberg (FLA current 2nd C) had a +2% better offense and -1% defense effect on-the-ice.

He was on a 30 goal, 50 point pace for 82 games on an awful Ducks team.

He's definitely an above-average 2C, the only reason the Ducks should trade him is I don't think his window lines up with the Ducks' and they have Steel, Zegras &amp; Lundestrom pushing for center spots.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 2, 2020 at 10:34 a.m.
Thread: Sharks retool
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Klara</b></div><div>1. Don't know where you got more than 50%
2. Contenders for the next few years
3. That's just stupid, Burns is still a very capable player (especially for 5m)</div></div>

Must've misread the NJ trade, thought it said 5M retention.
Contenders based on what? They've been garbage this year, and their stars are just getting older.
He's just about to turn 35 and has 5 years left. No one is going to touch that contract especially with his obvious dip in production this year. His defensive play has always been bad but his offense made up for it. Now his offense is starting to slow down and I wouldn't be surprised if it cratered in the next 2 years. Sharks are going to be on the hook for that whole thing unless they buy him out.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 28, 2020 at 3:09 p.m.
Thread: Ducks push for the playoffs in 2022
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AFOX10900</b></div><div>We can do better than those last three picks, I'd prefer Grans Neimela, and Khusnutdinov (if available) and we can do better than Honka for Comtois... I'm not overrating Comtois, Honka just isn't that good, he's not bad, but Comtois is closer to ready, and has a higher ceiling, Honka seems to be more of a high floor low ceiling guy imo, I'd move Tracey instead of Comtois, and it'd be more fair, and I doubt you'd be able to flip Staal for anything, (TBL gladly matches that OS as well)</div></div>

The Staal one was based more on Chevealdayoffs weird fascination with bad dmen. Honka's ceiling i think has gone up a lot since he was drafted, he's having a stellar year in Finland, but I'm not opposed to swapping out Tracey for Comtois if the deal still got done.

I don't think TBL will be able to match the OS. With an 83M cap they'll have 7.3M with 2F spots to fill and 3D spots to fill, and people they need to resign include Cirellie (+5M) and Sergachev (+5M). So I don't think they'll have the luxury of matching Cernak's OS.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 27, 2020 at 6:20 p.m.
Thread: Draft and Free Agency
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Edmonton has Nurse at 1LD, Jones at 2LD and Lagesson at 3LD right now. They have Russell (LD) and Klefbom (LD) on IR. That's FIVE players. All 5 guys are under team control next year. Additionally, they have two high LHD prospects in Broberg and Samorukov, although neither is expected to be in the NHL next season.

I'll reiterate my original point: Edmonton is not interested in trading Puljujarvi for a left-shot defenseman. At all.</div></div>

Lagesson is very bad and isn't signed, Jones is a 3rd pairing D at best. Guhle is better than Jones right now and younger, Broberg and Samorukov won't be in the NHL next year. Russell gets moved out in this deal. EDM has 2 quality LHD in Nurse and Klefbom, two third pairing dmen in Jones and Russell, an AHL defender in Lagesson (unsigned). By getting rid of Russell they have cap to go after forwards, Guhle comes in as an improvement on Jones.

Nurse-Larsson
Klefbom-Bear
Guhle-Bouchard/Benning
Jones

I think you're wrong as an Edmontonian myself.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 27, 2020 at 3:47 p.m.
Thread: Draft and Free Agency
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>The Oilers have 10 NHL defensemen under team control next year - and that's without re-signing Mike Green should they be interested. They aren't moving Puljujarvi for an LHD.</div></div>

They have 4 NHL defensemen (with Russell) signed for next season. 6 if you count Bouchard and Jones. They have 9 F, 4 D, and 1 G in the roster predictions right now with 12.5M in cap, 14M with an 83M cap.

They have to resign AA, Bear, Ennis, Benning, and a starter A. Those contracts will probably be like 3.5, 3.5, 2, and 3 (not signing one of Benning or Ennis). So that's 2M to sign three roster players which is doable. Or they can get 4M extra cap space, move Guhle into Russell's spot and try to go after another top 6 skilled forward in the offseason. Puljujarvi isn't going to play for the Oilers anyways, might as well get a top 4 D potential player and get rid of some cap.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 27, 2020 at 12:50 a.m.
Thread: Draft and Free Agency
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheJoeMan</b></div><div>Murray is and has been accruing assets. At some point he needs to let them cultivate and supplement them with talent. This team can handle another awful season like these last two, the fan base is too fragile for that (they've hardly supported this team when we were contenders). It does him no good trading away some of the few good players he has. That's not to say Gudbranson is a stud or anything but he's perfectly fine for what he makes and for how much we spent to get him. And I'm not concerned about Rico and the expansion draft. If Murray is concerned he'll be lost to Seattle than he'll trade him elsewhere. At the very least it'll be worth it to hold onto to him for next season in order to actually be competitive.

I just don't see the logic in preferring Honka over Larsson. If his numbers were so good (and I'm sure you're referring to his shot-differential numbers which are terribly flawed when evaluating individual players, especially ones who don't get a ton of ice-time; they're no different than plus/minus) why doesn't anyone else want him? I'm sure Dallas would give him away. Plus Larsson is just starting to settle in. I am so over trading away young d-men we've spent years developing before they've settled into their roles as NHL players. Unless it's for a clear upgrade and that ain't Honka. I mean we could have them both, easily. Murray doesn't have a gun to his head to make room for Mahura, not until Josh proves he's worthy of such a move.

I want this team to be good next year. There's no reason why they can't. Our young core has had two years now to mature into quality NHL regulars, next year they'll have to show they're ready to prop this team up.</div></div>

The stats i'm looking at aren't his shot differentials, they're a combination of xGF% CF% and heat maps as provided by hockey viz. Honka is definitively better than Larsson. Mahura has also shown to be just as, or better than Larsson in limited sample size.

The likelihood of the Ducks being contenders next year is slim to none. Best to situate this team to be competitive for a long time rather than just keeping their head above water for the next 4 years.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 26, 2020 at 4:27 p.m.
Thread: Draft and Free Agency
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheJoeMan</b></div><div>Honka and Mahura are not an upgrade over Larsson and Gudbranson. Honka is a bust, there's a reason Dallas couldn't move him and why he's not playing in the NHL right now. I would absolutely rather have Larsson. I think if Honka was a left-handed shot we'd never bring him up (this obsession everyone has on RHD has gotten out of control if you ask me). I'm also not convinced Djoos is a long-term option for us. He has arb rights and was buried in the minors most of the year so he seems like a No QO candidate to me unless he impresses down the stretch here.

I'd also much rather keep Rico and Rowney. Zegras is probably a year away still so there's no need to make room for him unless he blows everyone away in camp (he may very well play another year at BU though I doubt it). I think our roster will look almost identical in October as it does now.</div></div>

Honka's stats in 2019 were much better than Larsson's have ever been. Djoos looked good last night and has offensive upside. Gudbranson doesn't fit into the long-term plans, might as well get assets for him. Djoos is a low-risk medium-reward type of signing. Honka doesn't want to play for Dallas, that's why he isn't playing in the NHL much like Dallas.

Don't get me wrong, i doubt this happens. But the Ducks would be much better positioned to compete for a Cup by 2023 if they went this direction.

Zegras is dominating in the NCAA on a very bad BU team, I think it's pretty likely that he gets into the NHL next year, especially when he hinted towards only doing one year at the beginning of the season.

Ducks aren't going to contend next year. They need to accrue assets that will be useful when they do contend, if they kept Henrique they'd likely lose him in the expansion draft.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31, 2020 at 1:57 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 20, 2020 at 4:03 p.m.
Thread: Third Line at the Deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Where did I say he's better than Kase? I kept the 1st two lines together BECAUSE OF SUCCESS AND CHEMISTRY. Are all Ducks fans this stupid? *spits*</div></div>

You tagged me in this...I am just stating that Kase is better than Yams which is why he should be on the 2nd line because he is A LOT more successful right now. And stating Kase's value in comparison to someone you think should be a 2nd liner was supposed to further bolster my previous comment that the Ducks shouldn't trade Kase for that payoff, which was the initial question.

I live in Edmonton, believe me Oilers fans aren't any better than any Ducks fans I've seen. I mean it took them three years for the majority of them to figure out how bad Kris Russell and that contract is.

And who the heck "spits" after mentioning someone they tagged in the post initially? If you want to get another team's fans' opinions on something then don't be distraught when you get an answer you don't like.

I've been nothing but cordial with you, maybe mature a little bit more before you tag me in anything else.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 17, 2020 at 6:27 p.m.
Thread: Third Line at the Deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>It's not tag-along success though. Read what the players, coaches and media observers are saying. He's a big, big part of that line's success. Money quotes:

“Yamo, he wins races, he wins pucks, he does little things that a lot of people that watch games probably don’t really see. He’s very feisty and hard to play against. It’s a lot of fun and I think we can still create more offensively. That will come with more chemistry.” - Leon Draisaitl

“He plays with speed, he makes good plays, the tenacity he brings to our group,” (Oilers Head Coach Dave) Tippett said. “He’s not a big guy but he plays really hard and (is) a smart player. He’s come in and in a short time has contributed and made our team a better team. He’s a smart player, he reads situations well. He makes good plays with the puck and that’s why you see a guy like Draisaitl likes to play with him, because he can play a give-and-go game and he makes intelligent plays. That along with the tenacity, he gets to the front of the net, he finds loose pucks, he’s a smart player with a good skill set and he’s willing to work.”

<a href="https://theathletic.com/1525669/2020/01/10/kailer-yamamoto-has-impressed-the-oilers-and-especially-star-linemate-leon-draisaitl/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://theathletic.com/1525669/2020/01/10/kailer-yamamoto-has-impressed-the-oilers-and-especially-star-linemate-leon-draisaitl/</a></div></div>

I'm not saying Yams won't be good in the future, but right now he's nowhere near the player that Kase is.

According to hockey-viz <a href="https://www.hockeyviz.com/player/yamamka98/EDM/1920" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.hockeyviz.com/player/yamamka98/EDM/1920</a> Yams' offensive on-the-ice contribution is -20% threat below league average (very bad), EDM without Yams is -6% below the league average (less bad). Yam's defensive on-the-ice contribution to the opponents' offensive threat is +12% above the league average (bad), EDM without Yams is -4% (good).

Kase's offensive on-the-ice contribution is +100% threat above league average (very good), ANA without Kase is -7% below the league average (bad). Kase's defensive on-the-ice contribution to the opponents' offensive threat is +3% above the league average (less than decent), ANA without Kase is +4% (even lesser than decent).

So yeah his teammates and coaches may like him, but his on-the-ice contribution actually hasn't been as good as the eye test may say. He's just a kid though.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 17, 2020 at 3:58 p.m.
Thread: Third Line at the Deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div><a href="/users/OldNYIfan" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@OldNYIfan</a>
<a href="/users/MDA_47" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@MDA_47</a>
<a href="/users/mytduxfan" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@mytduxfan</a>
<a href="/users/Christian17" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Christian17</a>
<a href="/users/Jah1722" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Jah1722</a>
<a href="/users/Salzy" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Salzy</a>

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<a href="/users/pharrow" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@pharrow</a>
<a href="/users/djsuperdock" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@djsuperdock</a>
<a href="/users/mhockey91" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@mhockey91</a>

Let me know what you guys think.</div></div>

I don't think the Ducks should sell low on Kase as he's only 24, has the best possession metrics on the team (players with &gt;10 GP), is suffering from a 4.5 S% (if he equaled his S% from last year 11.7% he'd have 13 goals, so 26 pts in 41 GP) and his contract ends after next year and he'll likely get signed to a very team-friendly contract extension this summer because he's been unlucky this season with a 97.8 PDO.

Also, the Ducks already have a similar player to Puljujarvi in Sprong and I don't think the Ducks want to take another risky asset on.