F3ruS

Go Boltz! & Go Avs!
Member Since
Nov 14, 2018
Favourite Team
Tampa Bay Lightning
2nd Favourite Team
Colorado Avalanche
Location
Hungary
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442
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0.73
Forum Threads
3
Biography
Watching NHL since ~ 2000.
Lifelong Tampa Bay Lightning supporter.

From 2019/2020 season i found my 2nd team:
Colorado Avalanche
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 12 at 7:15
Thread: Next Season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zwui21</b></div><div>Lmao delusional thread alert.

Explain me WHY would Brisebois do this.
Killorn will be gone, Paquette will go if we need some more cap, Coburn waived and if not picked up by anyone sent to Syracuse (1.1M cap relief for Tampa).

I just love how sometimes, other teams fans that only give a superficial look at our team's Cap Friendly page, suddently think to know better our situation that we do.</div></div>

This guy is a lost case, i already told him, that from 2020-2025 his :kings will be bottom 15 in the league(in 2024 Kopitar will be 36... how you compete with that contract...),by keeping all old players on the roster like Quick, Brown, Kopi etc... and not aquiring the draft picks, which needed to trade up for superstars(top3 usually) other than it's luck... Now here is the thing, in this league noone trades up for players, they rather just sit on their picks in general... But when you do that, you are drawing lotto numbers like:
4 Edmonton Oilers - Jesse Puljujärvi Finland RW Signed
5 Vancouver Canucks - Olli Juolevi Finland LD Signed

If LA gets these type of "bust" players by drafting 4th-5th for years.(they dont want to tank for 1st-3rd, so only luck can get them that 1st-3rd) They have zero % to be contenders... Every contender has superstars, and usually more... and on Goalie/D/Foward positions... if you have a bad D core... u have no chance...
He is saying i'm hating on his team, and i'm jeaoulus because they have more cups, than Tampa... LUL

In reality i'm just telling the truth about his bad GM and the lack of 1st round draft picks in 2020, and if they keep everybody 2021...
It's another case when his GM changes his mind or new GM and starts to selling these players for max value, until they regress that a buyout needed... or wait it out = anchor to the team...
He agrees with his GM by keeping all the old cup winners and he thinks they will be contending next year, because they had a 7 game winstreak in a meaningless part of the season(now).
He also thinks Sergachev is the savior of the LA franchise, and by getting him... suddenly LA's defense will be magical and indestrustible.(roughly, thats why he opens topics about serg)
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 12 at 6:32
Thread: The NHL bruh
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ajp_18</b></div><div>The league will be suspended once all games are concluded for today... rip... we aren’t going to be able to do anything for the next for months until this dies out....</div></div>

It doesn't die out in "next months", it only gets worse.(except if somehow the spreading stops with quarantine/people staying home/no traveling etc... - with extreme measures)
This is nothing what's reported right now...i heard like possible 50k-100k already infected is USA:
Lots of them not reported/no symptoms--&gt; people are not understanding, that you can have the disease, but no symptoms.
You think you're healthy --&gt;nope...not how it works---&gt;80% of people who has the virus has absolutely no symptoms... So if 20k got reported... already 100k infected...they just didn't get tested/no symptoms...

Projections from experts looking really bad right now... like really bad until end of the year... in USA it looks like impossible to stop.
Fingers crossed all of these projections just false, and Trump can stop the widespread disease by increasing the money by huge amount from the current amount they spend on solving this situation...

Yes, somebody wrote above me, death rate in that big spread doesn't even matter, if you don't have beds in hospitals... It's 1% worldwide... that doesn't help the ill people, who doesn't get treatment because no beds left :cry If singapore can handle the virus perfectly and 0.0% deaths, that doesn't help on those countries, who cannot handle the virus...(out of bed as soon high number of people infected). Vaccine for public in 2020 = unlikely. 2021 early= hopefully
NBA already suspended, impossible almost NHL to not follow really soon... :cry

<strong>RIP :nhl Season 99.99%</strong> - or empty seats(unlikely and not that much fun anyways)
All sporting events now in full danger in the whole world in 2020...
The question is, what happens with 2020/2021 season? Will it start? Will it start with empty seats? Ouch...
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 12 at 6:13
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bf3351</b></div><div>Kings are on a 7 game winning streak. They don't need to get rid of franchise players. Ever since Vilardi came up they have been better than your team on paper. If you really think I'm going to go through and read 12 paragraphs or whatever you just wrote(mainly insulting my team that has more cups than yours) then you are delusional. Whatever you wrote could have been written in 3 paragraphs. But hey, if you have that much time on your hands then by all means, take the risk.</div></div>

Here is your winstreak--&gt;before the season projections:
Next time you read my sentences, maybe you'll understand what can you expect in the next 5 years:
<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/static/txt/preview1920/preview1920points-West.png" alt="preview1920points-West.png">

It's really simple. Vilardi will be as good as any other player. Completely random. Some player light up the nhl 40 games, then they don't. Every team plays bad, at least almost all top teams, so you can beat anybody.

:redwings just beat :lightning. So what does that mean? Nothing. Before that 16 games over 4+ seasons
16 wins:TBL
0 wins: Detroit

We had a nice winstreak of 16... Stanley-cups? 0
I'm so happy about the winstreak... Now it's over... Rip winstreak...

You can check before each season. It's the teams overall strength. As you can see theoretically LA could reached 105 points. So that 7 winstreak is nothing compared to what could've happened.That's 14 points out of the ~95 which usually need for playoffs.(+- 5)
I'm not insulting any team, i'm just saying you're putting impossible expectations about future results.
My team has 1 cup from 2004, and that was a pretty good season.(i still remember it well that playoffs run)
I don't care how many other cups any other team has LUL If your team wins 5 cups until 2050, it's good for you, irrelevant for me.
It's different conference anyways(our teams rarely meet and all meaningless matches), you should rather read my sentences, rather then forming incorrect deductions based on your own imagination.
Ofc it was wrong...

I'm just saying your team will have no chance to win anything until at least 2025, but putting up around ~80-95 points seasons with current strategy by keeping the "old guys"...
Otherwise with a different GM, with a different approach:
2020-2023: 50-70 points(tank and sell good players + draft high risk-high reward players + as you can get mediocre players from UFA &amp; lower round of draft)
2024+ = contending with a young and team full of(hopefully superstars)

<strong>I would be really surprised if LA even get's into top6 teams in this chart from 2020-2025. But with amazing asset management, it could be as early as 2023. I think it's time to change your gm, before it's too late...(wasted years for no reason).</strong>

TLDR: You think like your GM ---&gt; I say think differently, and have success.
Success to :nhl = superstars. LA has = 0 superstars. Doughty/Kopitar/Quick/Brown was... but now they are old and average players. Time to sell until they have value to REBUILD PROPERLY.
Not the NYR way... Not the 2015-2019 Detroit way

Good luck, if you/your GM choose the Det/NYR way!
Forum: NHL TradesMar 12 at 2:15
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>NBA just suspended the season
<a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2880463-nba-suspends-season-until-further-notice-amid-positive-coronavirus-test" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2880463-nba-suspends-season-until-further-notice-amid-positive-coronavirus-test</a>

NHL next???</div></div>

I read this amazing story about Marino(s).
I'm shocked... CoolStoryBob ;)
They should do a sportsnet video about it... like i've seen yesterday on sportsnet about Motte dealing with anxiety(revelead in the video).
:canucks Vs. :islanders = game of the week imo - i watch a lot of other teams, when i'm bored :p
Congrats to that Pittsburgh scout, i guess that's another way to get insane players :) (know them from young age and follow their career).
I think one of our scout followed Point's career in junior's. He just knew this guy is special :) Still 78 other teams skipping him... Round 3 79th pick...
It's insane how NHL teams only have choosen players early rounds by combine data/weight/size and they didn't care about skill in 2014 until later rounds.

I think now it's changed...now several other teams are picking small skilled/goalscorers/playmakers, like Montreal drafting Caufield in round 1... but still they're like really scared to draft those tiny players... They're saying like "if this guy is small/weak = noone drafts him anyways, so let's just wait until round 3 to draft this "kucherov" or "point" or "gaudreau" or "debrincat" caliber player...
I mean until referees are cheating in the playoffs...it works... but if it ever changes ie. same rules in playoffs vs reg season, then smaller players will become instantly drafted in round 1 i bet...
:blues + :stars = zero small players forever :rolleyes

I think it's Gary Bettman's fault... there is no way a penalty is a penalty in reg season... then you do the same thing(like holding) more times = less penalites.... it's just a joke...
I just watched Boston-Philly game... Marchand did like 4+ obvious holdings, he got a penalty like 2/4 times... If you do 4 holdings in my book... even in playoffs... 1 player = 8 min penalty... otherwise it's blatant cheating... If a tampa player does 6 holding penalty a game = 12 mintue powerplay for our opponent...i will be mad... but rules are rules...
So Marchand in playoffs will do 6 holdings/game, will get called for like 1/6 = 10 min powerplay advantage for that team... same will be for washington's dangerous tom wilson hits... he will cause 2 injury/game... maybe 1 game suspension... will be a joke like usual... but if kucherov makes 1 bad move... instant suspension... because we are soft...
It's a rumour that we are a soft team, even if it's not true anymore, you still claimed 1 week ago we are soft, and boston will destroy us :)
Looks like NHL referees officiating based on "rumours"... we get penalized every game way too much.... like joke penalties... which are never called for 90% of other matches... result = again last place in penalties taken stats around in the league... or close to it...

Soft teams gets punished... but if u play super hard = referees = become immune to that team's "shady things" over the time...
I watched a :blues game this week... this St. Louis player elbows the other guy, like literally an insane hit to the head, it was sundquist i think, but might be not him, doesn't matter who he was...
It was obvious he should get major penalty/game misconduct/suspension... Then they review it from the "booth"... they change it to minor 2 penalty random "elbowing".
LUL What a joke LUL :panthers still won that game, but that's crazy that you can get away by causing a bad concussion(not by accident)... then 2 minutes small minor penalty... Like nothing happend... dat poor florida player... I think he still sees ghosts from that hit... and the migraine...
That's how St. Louis won the cup... ofc players are scared Vs. them and they play bad Vs. St. Louis, if referees are doing nothing to stop the obvious unsportsmanlike conducts...
I see so many 1-3 game suspensions... those are literally nothing... nobody cares about 1 game suspension.. they should do like 5 minimum games suspension... then if you did multiple times.. then 5x 2... then 5x3... next elbowing(like what perry did in that outdoor series...) then 20 games... etc... great rules...

I know last year referees wanted columbus to win... well they got it... good for that city for 1st playoffs win ever... then whole league laughed about us... they should have laughed about referees obvious "noncalls" 5 times/game at minimum, thats 40 minutes powerplay non-called(4 games*5= 20 penalties), just because it's playoff hockey LUL...

Oh yeah, and i didn't even talked about the statistically proven(I've seen it on twitter 1-2 months ago) "evening up" penalty calls by refs...
So, if a team has 4 powerplays vs other teams 0 powerplays = Result should be = 50% that the team with 4 powerplays get's the 5th...
Nope. It's almost crazy high number of times the team with 0 powerplays will get the 1st powerplay...
Then it's still really big number they will get the 2nd, before the other team gets the 5th.
Then it's get closer but still likely 3rd for the team... It's a thing in the league and it's he dumbest thing i've ever seen in sports officiating. Like if 1 team makes 20 penalties, give them 40 minute penalties. If other team did no misconducts... 40 vs 4(2 minor they did let's say)... rules are rules... you will never see this happening... it's a fact...

BriseBois did the right thing with the trades... i wonder if we also will not get punished by those hits/holdings/interferences or "cheapshots" as you call them... if there will be any playoffs...
Chara deserves every cheapshots... he never gets suspended and he does it all the time...
He just did in the TBL-BOS game as well btw later in that game... referees saw nothing ofc... NHL is a joke right now... need video referees soon,(who can actually stop the game in case he sees something bad happens, which referees miss) game is too fast nowadays on ice for the refs... :shakehead

Yes, i've seen that an NBA player getting infected with the virus and heard about the news couple hours ago in a random comment on youtube...
That's really bad news and i have to admit you were right about this stuff :nod and i was super wrong... :shakehead
I didn't think it would spread this fast in rich countries and be unstoppable...
It's much worse, than i thought. The "panic" is through the roof with every single sports event now... and theaters... and cinemas... and concerts... etc... i knew about in china noone was on the streets... But still...this soon...
Indian wells, like 5th best tennis event in the world just got canceled. I'm a huge sports/tennis fan, so i'm really mad/sad that 1 billion sports event cancelled, because of this virus...
Next is :nhl, now i have no doubt it will get cancelled...
I don't think without spectators, it will be fun... so i don't see how that's a solution at all...
Now i'm banking on rip full NHL season... Can they resume season in june? If the virus will stop spreading in summer? Or that's not an option?(no rest for players then until next season, if there will be even a 2020/2021 season...)
Vaccine is even with modern advanced techonology is like 1 year away... We would need vaccine in these months... not next year... so maybe rip almost??? all sports events in 2019? European football championships, olympics,tennis,nba,nhl... everything... great... rip nfl as well in september??? ouch...:cry
What happens if humanity get's an actual life threathening virus like 50% death rate in modern age??? We need to spend insane money right now to prepare... We thought we are fine... Nope we are not...
Time to watch those hollywood movies about viruses/diseases and disaster movies... we all thought it's gonna be in "2012"...
Looks like 2020 is the new "2012"... and as i said what happens if in 20 years we get a much worse virus?...
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 12 at 12:37
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bf3351</b></div><div>Retain Kopitar 5M for 5 years? Come on man. Blake already stated they are building around Kopitar and Doughty.</div></div>

LUL, rip rebuild then - i mean you guys got your cups, so no biggie. I guess if the fans happy with these decisions, i guess it's ok.
Chicago doing the same as you guys, keeping Kane/Toews/Crawford/Seabrook/Keith forever, better than the :sabres / :panthers way = never even make the playoffs and never win a round. At least those cups keep the fans happy during "no-winning season'" days...

<strong>It's 3.5 years next trade deadline....</strong> Or if u take like 25 games out... It's 3 years only in 2021 february 25...
Check your math dude... don't say false things, if you don't know what you are talking about...
And those are not caphell years anyways... cap doesn't matter for rebuild... for lots of years... it's never few years.... like you think right now...
You want sergachev = i bet because you think your team will win with him... let me tell you something about serg...
He is a 3rd pair D.... as a 2nd pair D = he suffers = can't defend + makes mistakes... he is not good...
We tried him with Hedman 1st pair = epic fail...
He needs lot of years to improve.... he is better then last year... but it's not enough to stop McDavid or Ovechkin to score goals... He probably will never reach pro defensive level status, like Hedman, but we'll see... In offense he is pretty good though... but he is a defender so he should defend top priority at least be average/pretty good,like Martinez/Muzzin was in LA... Serg is far from Muzzin defensive skills... but that level is reachable with lots of work... we'll see.. he has time...

I don't follow your gm's statements, because your team is in the bottom-tier category since couple years + will be for too much years. So how should i know these "insider informations"(keeping aging overpaid player forever for a rebuild)
In my eyes rebuild = you sell those guys... The sooner... the better... the more value you get for them... the rebuild can be finished sooner.
So with a proper Yzerman "tanking strategy and selling everyone possible" = :kings could be ready in 2023/2024. We are talking about top10 team in the league and a respectable chance to win a round or 2 in the playoffs, like what toronto now looks like.(not cup contenders yet, because no defense superstars)
Other than defenders, superstars everywhere and no old dudes. If you keep all those old players, they just delay the process, because having more assets = can trade up for those superstars in the draft. Right now noone is trading up in the NHL = mostly bad gm's... They are just sitting on their draft picks 95% and hope for the miracle hit. Sometimes you can hit gems like tampa did with kuch,point,cirelli etc... but that's not the reality for most teams... you will miss too many players over the years... and in 5 years = no kucherov if unlucky in the draft. Look where Montreal is right now since like 2015... they have no hope...they are sitting on guys like petry + tatar for no reason... + not tanking(chasing the dream to get into playoffs for that 1% chance to win the cup there)

Yes you can be unlucky with 3x 1st overall or 3x3rd overall picks(tanking+ max amount of high draft picks) too, but at least you give yourself the chance...

How is a soon 33-35--&gt; then 35+ year old bunch of guys part of the rebuild with insane caphit when u guys have insane cap penalties for 2 more years after this?
Also a super regressing Doughty won't be the same as Giordano winning Norris in like 2023...(where those 21-25 year olds LA players will be NHL "hopefully" stars).
It's a waste for Kopitar to suffer there for years, so i'm not sure what his motivations are. Oh, the usual, "he will teach the young guys everything"... well you can get those guys from UFA market for much cheaper... or take on the salaries for draft picks you can...those old guys will be the same... except cheaper... and u can use the picks to have a faster rebuild... yes i know sux to have 50-60 point seasons(bottom 3 team in nhl for 3 years+, but if you're not doing it, you're not getting anywhere, except if u are lucky(or skilled finding gems), like Tampa's old gm...We'll see in Detroit if he still can find gems in the next 5 years...

I could written the same retention for Quick/Doughty/Brown/Carter, they are basically ensuring that your franchise will have no success in the upcoming 4 years.
<em>2020/2021
2021/2022
These seasons are hopeless.

The next one, 2022/2023 most likely still out of playoffs.

2023/2024 = last year of Kopitar's contract. Do you think a 36 year old Kopitar will help the team win anything in this season. The answer is clearly = will be just an anchor...(you can't get value probably by then = wasted asset)
</em>
If you retain 30%-40% of the salary and sell him for amazing value this summer. That 3-4 million $ will not be that bad(remember new tv deal+ cap going up like crazy every year by millions... = 3-4 mill in 2022/2023 = not even that much), when your team might start thinking about going into playoffs.

With this current LA GM approach, i expect LA in the playoffs after 2026-2027.(with real chance 1%+)
If sooner, then you need to be lucky in the next 2-3 draft years and draft actual superstars on all of the front:Goalie/Forwards/Defense.


<strong>TLDR:</strong>Come on man... i could write the same... i hate to see in the nhl hopeless teams with no future...
If you enjoy losing... support your gm and he will keep Doughty/Kopitar/Quick forever... and all others... delaying the rebuild with keeping old players= delaying the success.

BTW 50% retention was just throwing random ideas for you to create realistic scenarios for getting value... you can do 30% retention and same thing still apply = 7 million $ Kopitar is still alright in my book.
Just not for Tampa :)

<strong>In short:
sell everybody, maybe keep 1 old guy for a couple of years... = full rebuild completed in 2023/2024 = contending again(hopefully). That's the only way...
Your gm's way = bunch of mediocre seasons upcoming = no real chance to win cup.
And here comes the bad part. After the rebuild is over. If you fail to draft superstars in those 3 years = rebuild is a failure.</strong>

It's only my opinion about rebuilds, you can laugh at me, not read my message(your choice), but don't be too surprised is success will be the last thing in your franchise until 2025 = not that much fun for fans...

Just check out NY Knicks in NBA... if the gm is bad = bad things happening for lots of years...

Okay i wrote too much, i'm out...

RIP this NHL season anyways...
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 9 at 5:48
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bf3351</b></div><div>I almost stopped reading at Kopitar 50% retained. Good thing I didn't because everything after that was all fair and valid points.</div></div>

You wanna keep him, while rebuilding? The retention = not a bad thing, when u barely can reach the cap... His contract is not that long... If that retention can get u a solid piece for the future 10+ years, it might worth it?
Is he really the part of the rebuild? If i'm LA gm i trade him away next trade deadline for insane return... (look at what coleman/goodrow got for return from a desperate/aggresive gm).
For 10 million $ he is just not an option for any team.... so retention needs to get involved.
Phill Kessel also got moved with a retention if i remember well, i know 50% is rare, but well if u pay the price... anything is possible... 40% for a 6 million caphit Kopitar still sounds alright... but concern is, if he is regressing soon... i think LA needs a lot of years.. so caphit is not an issue... just like for Detroit... or Ottawa... don't tell me you will be in playoffs in 2021/2022... with those penalties/buyout/quick contract... u need a lot of years... yes rangers looks good... but do they have a chance to win anything? no... so for rangers same thing... needs years... they look good "playoff caliber team" from the outside... but if you carefully watch them play... u know they are not in true contender status for years.
I think Kopi would help a contending team over the top. I always liked his style of play.(who trades for him hoping he doesn't regress for 2 years---&gt; then trades him away)
Would be fun to see him in tampa(i wanted Pavelski too and we were interviewing him - his caphit was obv too high like 7 mill i think- we probably couldn't afford max 4.5 mill or smth...), i know it won't happen... (all GM's hate retentions longer than 1 year) But your job is to create better suggestions ;)
Tampa is a good place for everyone, so i'm eager to hear why you want to keep him until his contract is gone. Or what you think they should do with him... :)
Maroon also worked out beatifully here. He lived up the expectations... I hope we can get him another cup :cool
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 9 at 5:36
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JTBF81</b></div><div>If the cap goes to 85 or 86 then Tampa has no problems at all. Even at 84 it works. These posters obv don't know Tampa well if they think these rfa's are taking offer sheets for a million or 2 more, which is considerably less due to taxes, to leave a top contender. Serg will get closer to McAvoy(if Tampa even worries about "comparables," which they often don't), Cernak will get less than 3.5 with Cirelli at maybe 4.5 tops but likely closer to 4. It's like these ppl think JBB hasn't already planned these numbers out and very likely already has some gauge on the players approaches to this. But again, not worth anymore discussion as we've heard it all before with several other players the last 5 years and look at that, no offer sheets and kept everyone they needed/wanted with reasonable bridge contracts. Tampa doesn't let other teams inflated contracts dictate their negotiations, and they won't start now.</div></div>

The Vasi re-signing already signaled to me, that he has the perfect plan. It seemed way too much out of nowhere...(+2 capvalue trades - for steep price)
Maybe our roster won't be perfect ... but it will be still better than 90% of NHL teams. Which is good enough for a cup-try... even if we fail 2019/2020 + 2020/2021--- who knows what will happen in 2021/2022 or later... we can find a gem anytime with trades... draft... look at John Marino + Kubalik trades... those teams got those players for peanuts... if we can find those "gem" type of palyers... our cap situation is instantly better for 3 years... entry level contracts + RFA low $ deals = best for contending.
Overpaying every 2nd player = worst for contending...
We overpayed Vasi, so i'm a little worried we might step on the "overpayment " train... but i hope not...
We'll see with Cirelli/Serg/Cernak. I hope all 3 gets decent contracts and teamfriendly at least 2/3, maybe i would deal with a higher year/ higher caphit value for cirelli, if we can fit under the cap... the others... probably bridged... but i'm biased, as Cirelli is my fav player ;)
These guys on this forum think this is the hardest situation ever for any GM ever existed...
And we will be excluded from competing next year by the :nhl because of over the caplimit before season starts...
Well all i can say to them: Watch every move BriseBois makes. It will be for a reason.
Even i was skeptical about the Shattenkirk signing. Turned out the steal of the year for that low $ caphit... right now everyone in the league would gladly pay him 3 millon $ i bet...
He is good at finding these good deals.
Another one:Maroon. How useful he is for a full year + big body + funny lockerroom character guy.... so awesome... Bogosian(i have my doubts again - hope he proves me wrong - but at least he was free - so no big deal if he is bad)

Cap management = BriseBois job = He is good at it :nod :nod :nod ...Not like some random guys in these forums who wants to trade Cernak away for a bag of pucks... give Serg 6.5 mill $ contract... etc... that's just plain bad assets/cap management
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 9 at 5:15
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wqrrior</b></div><div>There is no hope of you getting that much for Johnson. Even a good chunk of Tampa fans see his lacklutre work ethic and his contract shifting from decent to disastrous. He is overpaid and doesn't provide any upgrade for COL over Jost. I doubt he waives for COL either.

Johnson, if moved, won't get a hair over a single 2nd round pick.</div></div>

That's were we disagree: I think currently Jost is a lost case. Need a change of scenery - i can't see too much value in him.

I don't know who it was, but before season start at the summer, someone said:
Jost = 60 points player

I laughed him for hours... no joke.. not for seconds... for hours... well almost season is over... i can start to laugh again. Jost is still not good... It's just seems like a good trade for both party... Johnson caphit is decent. He can hit 40-50 points in Colorado... No problem with it, except for lightning, we are shifting for more defenseive oriented play and we overpaid Vasi, so we need to trade him. He is still good/can play PP... just not a good fit anymore... whatever other tampa fans think about him... it doesn't matter...
They said exact same garbage things about Palat, before season started.
I told all of them to calm down and leave him alone... Coach's favorite...
Since then, they haven't said a single bad word about him... i would need to find any those old type of "hating" posts with magnify... i still wouldn't find it... all of those "fans" disappeared... Now they don't even mention Palat anymore.
Same solid guy, like Johnson, except more defensive oriented like Killorn.
We will trade 1-2 of these 3 and i hope it's Johnson. No problem if it's Killorn. But for Killorn - he provides a physical presence as well: we want to recover the losses for the Coleman trade/Goodrow trade.
So we will selling him high value not mediocre(impossible conditions)... Don't tell me you see more than, 15% that dallas makes it to conf finals next year... What if they don't even make the playoffs... not like they have 23 year old superstars all over the place... these conditions are not very well thought out... noone agrees to those... simple as that...

Killorn is more then points. If i would be BriseBois, i would keep him at all costs... and try to move Gourde/Johnson. But i know it's unlikely... but the return again should favor tampa. Sell high on him = alright compromise.
I don't even know Dickinson that well, so maybe he is weaker than i think... We'll see who gets moved, it's gonna be interesting, that's for sure.
Your topic is one of the better ones, so congrats for your suggestions...
i'm only saying it's a little bit off... very little...(conditions which never happening anways).
Killorn will get unconditional trade = 100%
It's not trade deadline...
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 9 at 4:58
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wqrrior</b></div><div>

It would take a miracle to offload those guys.

</div></div>

LUL, i think i already created the perfect trade for Tyler Johnson. I think Gourde stays right now... It's hard to choose between the 2... but the way we moving forward. Seems to me Gourde /Killorn stays.
So the trade i have in my ACGM test 2021:

:avalanche gets:
Tyler Johnson

:lightning gets:
Tyson Jost
3rd round pick

Johnson will be a really good fit for Avs... fast goal scorer.. maybe he can even play with McKinnon... just like Namestnikov lately... He also played 1st line in tampa with Kucherov... just like Johnson...
These guys are versatile... can be fit into any line... Namestnikov more of a defensive type... Johnson is all about offense ofc...

I missed your 2nd round pick condition, sorry i'm blind... make it 2nd round playoffs instead of conf-finals(unlikely however good dallas is--&gt; parity is too much - even tampa can be out 1st round again...)
And lower the points to 35, since Dallas is 5 times more defensive oriented team, than tampa. Also he can be injured any time, so rip conditions... for solid power forwards you don't need those conditions anyway... he is not milan lucic type of player... he can shoot the puck...
Dallas has no offense practically anyways... except when on hot streak Jamie Benn+Seguin...(rarer and rarer each year).
I can't see how Killorn reaches 45 ever there... unless he plays 100% PP1 unit , like JT miller in Van...
4th rounder is super low value basically... these are "solid" guys, not "useless", like u said. Any team would gladly trade for these.

Dallas wins games 2-1
Tampa wins games 4-3

Yes, this year tampa is trying to change, but mediocre success... true test will be playoffs... now we are more aiming for a 3-2 victory... last year it was 5-3 maybe :D
You get my point, those conditions are nonsense, i rarely see those in any trade... the "points condition" is absolutely unneccesary and never gets accepted by TBL...
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 9 at 4:29
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 9 at 4:25
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 9 at 3:39
I will be short so maybe you edit it(give us a respectable offer with like vilardi or smth.), after i carefully inspected these players and their value:

NO


Now the longer part:
The draft picks are useless to us. How they help us win the cup? Skip those...
Give us something worthwhile. Like Kopitar with a 50% retention idk... your topic...
BriseBois only interested in cap-value right now...
Like a player with 40 points/year + 4 million $ salary = not good.
But 40 points/year + 2 million $ salary = good
Same in defense, except for defensive performance and not that much about points there...
Like McDonagh is good but he is overpriced... McDonagh would be much better with a 5 million $ caphit for our cap situation...
Every penny we can spare, if for some reason caphit doesn't go over 86 million is good for us...
We need cap value+quality players--- and we don't need quantity(like 4 diff mid tier players)

It will be easy to resign Serg, if that's your concern...
My current projections for him: 3.7 million @ 3 years(McAvoy - who is much better top2 D - Boston's top!!! defender didn't cost 5 mill...)
Check out these guys for a comparison, if you're that worried:
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/players/ryan-pulock">Pulock - 2 Year Deal NYI </a>
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/players/torey-krug">Torey Krug - Multiple Short Contracts BOS</a>
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/players/brett-pesce">Brett Pesce - Carolina Long-Term Deal</a>

Serg on our team = Top6 D = not high price, like what you and 100 other "experts" here think...
Cernak is Top4D, but he has a down year.... so that's why similar caphit i expect for both...
We already paying a lot to 2 of our LHD:
Hedman - 7.9 mill $
McDonagh - 6.8 mill $
Serg - ???(3.7 mill - u see it's way too much to spend so it can be even lower... Heddy+Mc already too much on left defense)
Once again:
McAvoy-Top2D--&gt;under 5 million @ 3 years
Sergachev-Top6D--&gt;under 4 million--&gt; or possible even less @ 3 years
If BriseBois pays him more than 4 million --&gt; out from top10 GM's in the league...(except if extra-long term contract)
The Vasi signing... the Goodrow trade... Serg overpay... that would be too much... but i still trust him... Coleman also costed too much...

We pay RFA's lower than others = trend = similar to Boston and Serg likes it here, so i think he agrees to a teamfriendly contract

Good luck for the draft for your team! Raymond/Byfield? Depending on your luck :) Not bad players at all ;)
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 9 at 3:00
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boomer125</b></div><div>We're not talking about Aho, we're talking about the Lightning RFAs and the math doesn't add up, I get that Tampa can in theory match any offer that is of market value eg: Sergachev at 6 million x 5 or Ciereli at 4.5 x 3 or Cernak at 3x3 the reality is once Tampa matches those offers which can't happen till July 1st they will have used up the 10% overage of the cap (based on a realistic 84 Million) and have 18 roster players at about 6 million over the cap now they have to shed 6 million just to become cap compliant and the lovely reasons you pointed out as to why players like Tampa is the same reasons why Johnson, Gourde, Palat and now it's after July 1st Kucherov all say no I'm not moving we signed our team friendly deals with the NTCs to be here. Alright so now JBB is calling around he has his 3 shiny RFAs and Point he can shop to free up cap and fill 6 roster spots now all these players are absolutely very valuable and under normal circumstances would bring in very nice hauls but we are not under normal circumstances we are under absolutely must shed salary circumstances which negates JBBs leverage in negotiating a trade, and I'm not saying it's impossible I'm just merely pointing out the mass difficulty it will be and yes there are GMs licking there lips and circling in hopes to steal very Quality pieces from a very very good even great team over the last 5 years. Tampa "Easily" matching OS is an empty statement when the repercussions of matching are far from easy.</div></div>

In this case you saying, it was same last year with Calahan. JT MIller + others... Literally nothing changed. Except we have to move 1-4 players instead of 1-3...
Everyone thought Callahan = we pay 1st round pick to get rid of him. Reality we payed like 5th round.
Again if Gourde is a problem for you... then we trade him for less.... than the market value... like let's say he is worth 2nd round+3rd round. In this scenario nobody offers that. We only get offered a 2nd round pick... we take that offer... and he is gone...
Just like everyone else... who doesn't fit under the cap... It's really easy. You don't believe me? Just watch every move BriseBois makes...
He already prepared for next year by trading for Coleman/Goodrow. Next step is: You will see...

Point is staying... If you think he is a trade piece. Open some topics about Ovechkin leaving Washington too... I'm sure people will love it...Zzz...

Let me help you with Point: He is our best player right now... Not Kucherov... Kapischi?
He stays... it's all about offense+defense together in our team + winning the cup. We don't care about points/goals that much, as last year. Last year we had like 24/7 offense team system. Now it's 70% offense/30% defense team system. Point is top3 defensive forward on our team... He is a playmaker who comes back and prevents opponents goals = like Couturier for Philly = untradeable

For example:NYI has 10% offense/90% defensive system. You see we are far away from that system, but we know that 100% offense = no cups...
We needed 5 years for this to figure out it looks like... check the nfl... Kansas was decent defensively with lethal offense = super bowl win...
We need to keep our offense around 3 goals/game --- but until we cannot go under 2.3 goals in the playoffs allowed/game, we are ain't winning sh*t... It's all about balance.
Toronto has bottom 5 defense in league = same as our defense for years... Toronto will soon realize it doesn't work... no team won cup without excellent defenders/defensive style.
Even Crosby had insane help and overachiveing players, when they won... LA was all about defense... ST Louis same... somehow Washington defended well in the cup year... etc...
Point brings us defense = non-tradable. We need more players like him in reality, not trading him away...

I hope BriseBois brings in some good solid Shutdown D-man next year(not Schenn/Bogosian levels), if we don't win the cup this year... 86% that we won't win it... so that's the reality...
Waiving NTC for Johnson/Gourde is not an option, if you think we are in bad cap situation. It's a must. There is no way around it. They already know i suspect... They look sad on the ice... A cup win would overshadow the possible trades/sadness for them... and they would be happy to go... without the cup it will be bittersweet...

But here is the thing, our cap situation is not that bad... we have replacement players and if cap let's say 86.5 million $, we'll be fine, just like last year... Just 1-4 trades needed... Like Coburn... Killorn etc... i already said... Those 3 will get signed... in case not... 1 of them can get traded(under 1% i see this scenario happening)

Cernak/Serg 3.5 mill - Cirelli: 4.5 mill

Can you modify your trades with my numbers? If you really interested in our cap situation... And not 84 million $. That's not happening.... it's gonna be higher...
Then you see it's not that bad. Keep Point ;)
BTW Kapanen trade is also horrifying, i see that dude play all the time. Not a good fit for our needs. At all... He can stay in Toronto...
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 9 at 2:34
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 9 at 2:11
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ConnorMcHellebucyk</b></div><div>A :oilers vs :lightning finals would be amazing.</div></div>

I watched a lot of Edmonton matches lately vs various opponents. What Draisaitl doing this year it's crazy. Sometimes 4 goals, sometimes McDavid 5 points haha...
To beat McDavid in a scoring race, even with a small McDavid injury = Insane.
I don't care about his defensive issues. He should get the trophy. He also produced while McJesus was injured...Like carried the team!

<strong>In my eyes Draisaitl = MVP, Hart trophy etc...</strong>
I like your team chances in 1st round, idk who will be your opponent, the pacific is just crazy to predict...
Even if you guys go against :goldenknights, i can see a world where your team wins :) If Stone injured, out of form = even more chance for your team to win....
It would be a hell of a 1st round series.
<em>TBL-TOR
VGK-EDM</em>

Can't really get any better than that, as far as 1st round matchups are goes... Both would be super explosive series ;)
<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/firstround/2020-03-09/EDM" alt="EDM">

Ahhhhh,it's only 6% that it's happening...oh well... maybe next time haha

<strong>Good luck to your team though </strong> Vs. CGY/VAN/NSH!(most likely opponents right now).
96% that your team makes the playoffs. That's good enough in my book to predict future matchups :cool :cool :cool
Which one you would want to face 1st round, if you could choose? And which one you think your team is hopeless against?

With TBL i hope we avoid in the playoffs Philly/Washington at all costs from the east... Although we can beat them, it's gonna be really hard... and phyisical... so i hope we can get lucky...
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 9 at 1:44
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boomer125</b></div><div>There was literally a signed OS last offseason</div></div>

It helped the Carolina GM. He went to Hawaii sooner to vacation... literally he said it...
...and noone said any Carolina "possibe move the franchise to other city in couple years, like Arizona/Florida" players will not sign offer sheets...
If you ask me about Svechnikov... i have no idea if he signs it or not for 10 million $+...
We are talking about a top3 team in the last 5 years in points collected, yes that's the :lightning in the regular season + multiple playoffs success + future top10 team in the league next few years. ( i doubt we regress to top 16 or worse, like San Jose)
You see the difference between bad franchises vs successful ones. Aka signing an offer sheet to make your life worse (no player like to gets traded where they play for same team for years for no reason).
Money is just a part of a hockey player career. Usually handled by the agent(99%). Player can say the agent : Just sign me any deal you can. Even if it's 2 million less $ for xyz years...
Like Labanc for San jose.

The question in that case was: "I'm Sebastian Aho, what do i choose?"

6 million $ for 6-7 years--- can't remember it perfectly ---&gt;Carolina offer was a joke that's all i remember.
So again a "possible franchise which can be moved anytime the owner wants"/fringe playoffs team. The owner doesn't want to spend money for no success. It's understandable.
Florida already announced they will cut the costs for next year. Believe it or not. Florida will be bad again... If they can't spend to the cap(we'll see what they do)

So the offersheet was Montreal(established franchise - no danger of bad things happening and they like every finnish player and they love to draft them, especially young ones = connection there)
8.2 mill $ for 5 years if i remember correctly

Do you see the difference between a winning franchise with possible cup chance vs. a barely playoffs franchise(possible on the move in 5 years if owners decides enough is enough- few spectators for example = low income) and lot less % to win cups each year in that 5-6 years period? Who would bet on Carolina this year/next year to win it all... It's possible... it's just unlikely... they need a goalie first...

He signed the offersheet because it was a lowball offer from a bad team &amp; from a bad owner and a "not so bright future" franchise.
It was not just about money. See Finnish connection with Montreal.
Another reason why it happend: Montreal f*cked up the drafts to get a true #1 center.
That was their desperate atempt to get one and every single person, who watches the :nhl knows, that it would be matched in 1 hour... Because those draft picks from montreal = 99% worse player than Aho and the caphit they offered was laughable low.
It would've been a true offersheet in my eyes, if it's the highest tier or (maybe 2nd highest with max money offer)...

Let's examine the next tier:
$8,454,872 - $10,568,589
2 First Round Picks
1 Second Round Pick
1 Third Round Pick

This is already bad for Montreal. Probably that's why it's not happend. They need to make sure they are top10 in the league for next 2 years, if they offer this. Unlikely. Even with Aho.
If this offer happend, i wouldn't have laughed about Marc Bergevin, but still would've expected a match there. Like 10 million $ @ 5 years.

So here comes "real offersheet" part:

$10,568,590 - ∞
4 First Round Picks

Obviously you don't really want to give up as a GM this much valuable picks for 1 player... except if he is like McDavid level/Kucherov level/MacKinnon level/Ovechkin level, where you can be 100% sure that tha value in those years and the possible cup % win is worth the risk you're taking. And again you need to make sure if you offersheet that McDavid type of guy... you finish at least top5-10 in the league, that those draft picks = have not too much value . Edmonton + McDavid = not enough to be top 10 you see where im going with this and why it's not worth it?
Like 11.5 million $(Panarin money) for max years possible.


<strong>So you can already see if you follow my drift, that Marc "Genius" Bergevin only missed this offersheet by 2 tiers. </strong>
Turns out he offered it, becuase he thought this Carolina franchise is dieing/owner doesn't like to pay big money... Turns out every franchise/owner can pay any player, unless they don't want to... What a colossal surprise.
If you want to target other teams with offersheet. You should target Florida players, but the success rate there are also questionable, although 100 times more likely, then TBL.
I'm certain Carolina would've taken the 4 x 1st round picks from :canadiens for this particular around 1 point/game player. Who is elite C, but not the best of best of elites. Maybe ~ top40 NHL player.

So all-in-all we are talking about much worse players/less value players(Serg/Cirelli/Cernak), than Aho was on a successful franchise(tampa), where players like everything here.
Like russian Sergachev likes it here, he is really having fun with buddies with Kucherov, Vasilevsky, Volkov sometimes... go to beach etc... money is not nr. 1 thing in this franchise, and every player knows it....
Cirelli is my fav player for a reason... last year it was Point. The compete level for Cirelli is off the charts... not the money what drives him. It's the winning at all costs part... if someone offers 8.3 million $ "AHO money" for Cirelli. So be it. Our GM will make the correct decision based upon the offering team's projections in the next year.
It's a big IF, because who has 8 million $ for a 2nd line center, whose main strength is DEFENSIVE play. Usually these players costs less(for free from UFA or cheaper trades), the players in this salary category are scoring lots of goals/lot more points then 50-60... and almost noone "real" offersheets those guys anyways(60-100 point guys).... so why they didn't offersheet Rantanen last year... oops... because the price is just not worth it...

The offersheet system is flawed and basically non-existant... Needs new rules/new money tiers/less compensation prizes... Currently it's full garbage...

Anytime i see one of these posts... I can write about this topic for a while...
But usually this ends up at the end of our conversation:
Topic opener still thinks "xyz" player will get offersheeted and it will be signed by the player and NOT MATCHED BY THE CLUB = Succesful offersheet
Why? They don't know. Just. Because. Why not? Offersheet = danger = happening = crazy things will happen WITH THE :lightning.
Again i talk about a speicifc team, not about all other teams.

Winning here is priority. I'm sure even JT Miller didn't want to leave last year... he had a good time... he comes back for podcasts etc... whatnot... almost every player likes it here... it's a known fact...
One player i know from a russian interview doesn't really like it here: Volkov Why? Because he can't make it the roster. He has to play in AHL. He wants to play in NHL. You can target Volkov with your offersheet, and i'm certain he will say yes to you generous offer:
$1,395,054 - $2,113,716
1 Third Round Pick
We probably not matching... but it's 50-50. So again. Still can be unsuccesful.
Succesful offersheet = "signed by player + not matched" together. That's why i said Aho = unsuccesful. Like it didn't happend, other than helped the GM cause less trouble for the preseason...+ extended vacation

Do you remember where Kovalkchuk wanted to go? To play with Ovi in Washington... You see these non us/canada players really like when they can speak their own language. Especially when they barely speak english... But that's the signing part... why a player signs it, that's only a small part of the offersheet.
The important part is matching/not matching. Where a lot of people fail to realize, if a club doesn't match it... it's not because of salary reasons... it's because of they think the draft picks = more value than a player.

TLDR:
Real offersheet what should've happened if any GM was serious:

$10,568,590 - ∞
4 First Round Picks Compensation

4 draft picks for Aho + 10.6million $ salary offer = not matched = possible successful offersheet = <strong>that's your literally what happend last year scenario.</strong> Not quite close...
Marc "i need a center or i lose my job" Bergevin only missed it by 2 tiers.
Not by 1 Tier.
2 Tiers.
That's an epic fail...:huh :help


We can talk next, when i see a "successful offersheet"(not matched-otherwise no consequences) on this site... until then... too unlikely it happens... Zero in a decade looks like the reality until next CBA.

Or you can show me players/ offers/ years /salary for offersheet, then i can predict what would happen.(non-TBL players obviously)
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 9 at 12:15
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JTBF81</b></div><div>Lol, sure, only won 16 in a row against them and took one of the most pathetic dives I've ever seen to do it, Tampa missing Stamkos and Hedman while coming off a brutal game 20 hours earlier. Yep Detroit should plan a parade lol. They can enjoy their continued medi ocrity and lost a ton of respect for that team and Larkin with a play like that. I guess they can enjoy their 17th win though.</div></div>

One advanced analytics guy i follow predicted a 75% TBL win for this DET match... He said we should rest players... like a few of them at least...
I was like... he must not have seen the :bruins game like 22 hours earlier or smth...
I mean i agree with him: Load management needs to be implemented in the :nhl sooner or later...
I just didn't agree with his predictions, that without resting players we have 75%...
I thought we have like 50% to win... turned out... we won(so he was right with the 75%)... just the referees screwed us in the whole game...
the topic opener is right: :bluejackets style
They disallowed a 5 on 3 PP and couple other "non-calls". In other words... at least 3-4 penalties... in obvious situations... like -1 kuch goal... that's even worse than a couple not awarded 2 minute minor..

What the referees did in the CBJ matchup? They didn't allow us barely any PP.(intereference/holding non existant for refs in playoffs)
What was our main strength last year = PP. Good job refs... :applaud

That's contributed to around 3-5% for the reason we lost... let's imagine only 5 more power plays awarded in the columbus series... could've been 3 goals = 1 match win... then who knows what's happening if we win 1 game... momentum shifts are real in the league, and that series the refs just helped the other team... i have no doubt, that they will help specific teams this year...
Again Hedman was injured vs Detroit , just like in Columbus series. Result = 4 goals allowed...If Hedman is not in the lineup that's usually what happens... We allow more than 3 goals = hard to win...

CBJ series = all games lots of goals allowed.(thanks to injury + cold Vasi)
If you play with injury, if it's bad, it's worse than a replacement level of player... and Point also played with huge injury(2 surgeries needed).
Those injuries also contributed like 20-30% of the reasons why we lost, other then the refs... There is 1 million other reasons why we lost, which i already explained in other topics...

Anyways, these matches are now placeholders.
We secured the 2nd/3rd place already with 2-3 wins out of like 14... we can lose 10 in a row ... it still won't matter most likely...
This is as acceptable loss thank to the referees... We played bad defense/medicore offense(tired) and we still got 1 point... which is more than enough for us to make the playoffs(we don't care about pres cup anymore)

If the referees called this match even, like they should: this loss would be still okay... so no reason to be panicking...1 point, i'm actually happy at the end of the day...


On the other hand, if we lose in playoffs round 1 vs Toronto----&gt;that would be disaster(even all 4-7 games without Stamkos we still should win) ----&gt; Cooper fired most likely,
so he better help the players win that series(our best matchup from the possible playoffs opponents on the east).
Vs. all other metro teams we have less % to win... so if we can't win that series... how do we want to win anything... after that it's Boston "Tea Time" in the 2nd round...

:lightning Vs. :mapleleafs in 1 month!

Let's go!

Also :lightning Vs. :oilers Stanley-Cup Finals? Are you in? :popcorn