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F3ruS

Go Boltz! & Go Avs!
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Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2020 at 6:05 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2020 at 5:48 p.m.
Thread: Tampa would you do this in the offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bf3351</b></div><div>I almost stopped reading at Kopitar 50% retained. Good thing I didn't because everything after that was all fair and valid points.</div></div>

You wanna keep him, while rebuilding? The retention = not a bad thing, when u barely can reach the cap... His contract is not that long... If that retention can get u a solid piece for the future 10+ years, it might worth it?
Is he really the part of the rebuild? If i'm LA gm i trade him away next trade deadline for insane return... (look at what coleman/goodrow got for return from a desperate/aggresive gm).
For 10 million $ he is just not an option for any team.... so retention needs to get involved.
Phill Kessel also got moved with a retention if i remember well, i know 50% is rare, but well if u pay the price... anything is possible... 40% for a 6 million caphit Kopitar still sounds alright... but concern is, if he is regressing soon... i think LA needs a lot of years.. so caphit is not an issue... just like for Detroit... or Ottawa... don't tell me you will be in playoffs in 2021/2022... with those penalties/buyout/quick contract... u need a lot of years... yes rangers looks good... but do they have a chance to win anything? no... so for rangers same thing... needs years... they look good "playoff caliber team" from the outside... but if you carefully watch them play... u know they are not in true contender status for years.
I think Kopi would help a contending team over the top. I always liked his style of play.(who trades for him hoping he doesn't regress for 2 years---&gt; then trades him away)
Would be fun to see him in tampa(i wanted Pavelski too and we were interviewing him - his caphit was obv too high like 7 mill i think- we probably couldn't afford max 4.5 mill or smth...), i know it won't happen... (all GM's hate retentions longer than 1 year) But your job is to create better suggestions ;)
Tampa is a good place for everyone, so i'm eager to hear why you want to keep him until his contract is gone. Or what you think they should do with him... :)
Maroon also worked out beatifully here. He lived up the expectations... I hope we can get him another cup :cool
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2020 at 5:36 p.m.
Thread: Tampa its gonna be tough
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JTBF81</b></div><div>If the cap goes to 85 or 86 then Tampa has no problems at all. Even at 84 it works. These posters obv don't know Tampa well if they think these rfa's are taking offer sheets for a million or 2 more, which is considerably less due to taxes, to leave a top contender. Serg will get closer to McAvoy(if Tampa even worries about "comparables," which they often don't), Cernak will get less than 3.5 with Cirelli at maybe 4.5 tops but likely closer to 4. It's like these ppl think JBB hasn't already planned these numbers out and very likely already has some gauge on the players approaches to this. But again, not worth anymore discussion as we've heard it all before with several other players the last 5 years and look at that, no offer sheets and kept everyone they needed/wanted with reasonable bridge contracts. Tampa doesn't let other teams inflated contracts dictate their negotiations, and they won't start now.</div></div>

The Vasi re-signing already signaled to me, that he has the perfect plan. It seemed way too much out of nowhere...(+2 capvalue trades - for steep price)
Maybe our roster won't be perfect ... but it will be still better than 90% of NHL teams. Which is good enough for a cup-try... even if we fail 2019/2020 + 2020/2021--- who knows what will happen in 2021/2022 or later... we can find a gem anytime with trades... draft... look at John Marino + Kubalik trades... those teams got those players for peanuts... if we can find those "gem" type of palyers... our cap situation is instantly better for 3 years... entry level contracts + RFA low $ deals = best for contending.
Overpaying every 2nd player = worst for contending...
We overpayed Vasi, so i'm a little worried we might step on the "overpayment " train... but i hope not...
We'll see with Cirelli/Serg/Cernak. I hope all 3 gets decent contracts and teamfriendly at least 2/3, maybe i would deal with a higher year/ higher caphit value for cirelli, if we can fit under the cap... the others... probably bridged... but i'm biased, as Cirelli is my fav player ;)
These guys on this forum think this is the hardest situation ever for any GM ever existed...
And we will be excluded from competing next year by the :nhl because of over the caplimit before season starts...
Well all i can say to them: Watch every move BriseBois makes. It will be for a reason.
Even i was skeptical about the Shattenkirk signing. Turned out the steal of the year for that low $ caphit... right now everyone in the league would gladly pay him 3 millon $ i bet...
He is good at finding these good deals.
Another one:Maroon. How useful he is for a full year + big body + funny lockerroom character guy.... so awesome... Bogosian(i have my doubts again - hope he proves me wrong - but at least he was free - so no big deal if he is bad)

Cap management = BriseBois job = He is good at it :nod :nod :nod ...Not like some random guys in these forums who wants to trade Cernak away for a bag of pucks... give Serg 6.5 mill $ contract... etc... that's just plain bad assets/cap management
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2020 at 5:15 p.m.
Thread: stronger depth and defense
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wqrrior</b></div><div>There is no hope of you getting that much for Johnson. Even a good chunk of Tampa fans see his lacklutre work ethic and his contract shifting from decent to disastrous. He is overpaid and doesn't provide any upgrade for COL over Jost. I doubt he waives for COL either.

Johnson, if moved, won't get a hair over a single 2nd round pick.</div></div>

That's were we disagree: I think currently Jost is a lost case. Need a change of scenery - i can't see too much value in him.

I don't know who it was, but before season start at the summer, someone said:
Jost = 60 points player

I laughed him for hours... no joke.. not for seconds... for hours... well almost season is over... i can start to laugh again. Jost is still not good... It's just seems like a good trade for both party... Johnson caphit is decent. He can hit 40-50 points in Colorado... No problem with it, except for lightning, we are shifting for more defenseive oriented play and we overpaid Vasi, so we need to trade him. He is still good/can play PP... just not a good fit anymore... whatever other tampa fans think about him... it doesn't matter...
They said exact same garbage things about Palat, before season started.
I told all of them to calm down and leave him alone... Coach's favorite...
Since then, they haven't said a single bad word about him... i would need to find any those old type of "hating" posts with magnify... i still wouldn't find it... all of those "fans" disappeared... Now they don't even mention Palat anymore.
Same solid guy, like Johnson, except more defensive oriented like Killorn.
We will trade 1-2 of these 3 and i hope it's Johnson. No problem if it's Killorn. But for Killorn - he provides a physical presence as well: we want to recover the losses for the Coleman trade/Goodrow trade.
So we will selling him high value not mediocre(impossible conditions)... Don't tell me you see more than, 15% that dallas makes it to conf finals next year... What if they don't even make the playoffs... not like they have 23 year old superstars all over the place... these conditions are not very well thought out... noone agrees to those... simple as that...

Killorn is more then points. If i would be BriseBois, i would keep him at all costs... and try to move Gourde/Johnson. But i know it's unlikely... but the return again should favor tampa. Sell high on him = alright compromise.
I don't even know Dickinson that well, so maybe he is weaker than i think... We'll see who gets moved, it's gonna be interesting, that's for sure.
Your topic is one of the better ones, so congrats for your suggestions...
i'm only saying it's a little bit off... very little...(conditions which never happening anways).
Killorn will get unconditional trade = 100%
It's not trade deadline...
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2020 at 4:58 p.m.
Thread: stronger depth and defense
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wqrrior</b></div><div>

It would take a miracle to offload those guys.

</div></div>

LUL, i think i already created the perfect trade for Tyler Johnson. I think Gourde stays right now... It's hard to choose between the 2... but the way we moving forward. Seems to me Gourde /Killorn stays.
So the trade i have in my ACGM test 2021:

:avalanche gets:
Tyler Johnson

:lightning gets:
Tyson Jost
3rd round pick

Johnson will be a really good fit for Avs... fast goal scorer.. maybe he can even play with McKinnon... just like Namestnikov lately... He also played 1st line in tampa with Kucherov... just like Johnson...
These guys are versatile... can be fit into any line... Namestnikov more of a defensive type... Johnson is all about offense ofc...

I missed your 2nd round pick condition, sorry i'm blind... make it 2nd round playoffs instead of conf-finals(unlikely however good dallas is--&gt; parity is too much - even tampa can be out 1st round again...)
And lower the points to 35, since Dallas is 5 times more defensive oriented team, than tampa. Also he can be injured any time, so rip conditions... for solid power forwards you don't need those conditions anyway... he is not milan lucic type of player... he can shoot the puck...
Dallas has no offense practically anyways... except when on hot streak Jamie Benn+Seguin...(rarer and rarer each year).
I can't see how Killorn reaches 45 ever there... unless he plays 100% PP1 unit , like JT miller in Van...
4th rounder is super low value basically... these are "solid" guys, not "useless", like u said. Any team would gladly trade for these.

Dallas wins games 2-1
Tampa wins games 4-3

Yes, this year tampa is trying to change, but mediocre success... true test will be playoffs... now we are more aiming for a 3-2 victory... last year it was 5-3 maybe :D
You get my point, those conditions are nonsense, i rarely see those in any trade... the "points condition" is absolutely unneccesary and never gets accepted by TBL...
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2020 at 4:29 p.m.
Thread: stronger depth and defense
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wqrrior</b></div><div>Trade who though lol. It's either Killorn, Sergachev or Cirelli. I'd much rather move Killorn.

Also Dickinson is an RFA, so you get him more than 1 year. And the pick in theory could become a 2nd. Killorn is not worth as much as Miller. Miller is more versatile as a center. Killorn restricted to LW only will result in slightly less value</div></div>

You don't understand, it's impossible to get that high return for JT Miller... We did it anyways... nobody expected that... Confess! Have you?
Middle 1st! + 3rd !
Not late 1st + nothing!
It's foolish to think we hit the jackpot 2 times in a row, that's why i said late 1st should be an alright return.... i know you can sign RFA's, but for how much... when it's already done it's better(no trouble)

Dickinson + unconditional 2nd seems like a good return... we don't take those conditions for sure in a high quality player like Killorn. He can reach 60 points this year. That's not mediocre... His contract is also a bargain for what he brings to the table... even if it's 20 points... He is really valuable until he regresses... maybe in 2 years...
I would rather keep him, so the price will be high? It's not like we will shopping him for peanuts :rolleyes

Trade Who:Coburn/Gourde/Johnson/Paquette + anyone we can...
The cap will be maybe 86.5 mill $, that would help us as well - fingers crossed it won't be 85 mill... :shakehead
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2020 at 4:25 p.m.
Thread: 86 million cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BLIvingston33</b></div><div>Fix what? We need one center...</div></div>

Good luck! If you're goal is to be a fringe playoff team every single year... It's your team, not mine :flushed
Not sure the fans like that or not... 0.1% to win cup, i would rather tank 3 years... 2 years finishing rebuild... then 5-10% to win cups... the LA way... the Detroit way...

This is the Buffalo way...(except those guys not even make the playoffs)
I think your new'ish GM is smarter, than this. We'll see at summer... Moving Zucker was smart... he is not that good...

Also what makes you think Markstrom is signing for peanuts for :wild? I think he rather stays in Van...
It seems unlikely he goes exactly to wild... just like Lehner wants 8 mill long term... not sure how he ever accepts ~ 5 mill... but we'll see where he lands this summer.:grimace
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2020 at 3:39 p.m.
Thread: Tampa would you do this in the offseason
I will be short so maybe you edit it(give us a respectable offer with like vilardi or smth.), after i carefully inspected these players and their value:

NO


Now the longer part:
The draft picks are useless to us. How they help us win the cup? Skip those...
Give us something worthwhile. Like Kopitar with a 50% retention idk... your topic...
BriseBois only interested in cap-value right now...
Like a player with 40 points/year + 4 million $ salary = not good.
But 40 points/year + 2 million $ salary = good
Same in defense, except for defensive performance and not that much about points there...
Like McDonagh is good but he is overpriced... McDonagh would be much better with a 5 million $ caphit for our cap situation...
Every penny we can spare, if for some reason caphit doesn't go over 86 million is good for us...
We need cap value+quality players--- and we don't need quantity(like 4 diff mid tier players)

It will be easy to resign Serg, if that's your concern...
My current projections for him: 3.7 million @ 3 years(McAvoy - who is much better top2 D - Boston's top!!! defender didn't cost 5 mill...)
Check out these guys for a comparison, if you're that worried:
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/players/ryan-pulock">Pulock - 2 Year Deal NYI </a>
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/players/torey-krug">Torey Krug - Multiple Short Contracts BOS</a>
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/players/brett-pesce">Brett Pesce - Carolina Long-Term Deal</a>

Serg on our team = Top6 D = not high price, like what you and 100 other "experts" here think...
Cernak is Top4D, but he has a down year.... so that's why similar caphit i expect for both...
We already paying a lot to 2 of our LHD:
Hedman - 7.9 mill $
McDonagh - 6.8 mill $
Serg - ???(3.7 mill - u see it's way too much to spend so it can be even lower... Heddy+Mc already too much on left defense)
Once again:
McAvoy-Top2D--&gt;under 5 million @ 3 years
Sergachev-Top6D--&gt;under 4 million--&gt; or possible even less @ 3 years
If BriseBois pays him more than 4 million --&gt; out from top10 GM's in the league...(except if extra-long term contract)
The Vasi signing... the Goodrow trade... Serg overpay... that would be too much... but i still trust him... Coleman also costed too much...

We pay RFA's lower than others = trend = similar to Boston and Serg likes it here, so i think he agrees to a teamfriendly contract

Good luck for the draft for your team! Raymond/Byfield? Depending on your luck :) Not bad players at all ;)
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2020 at 3:00 p.m.
Thread: Tampa its gonna be tough
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boomer125</b></div><div>We're not talking about Aho, we're talking about the Lightning RFAs and the math doesn't add up, I get that Tampa can in theory match any offer that is of market value eg: Sergachev at 6 million x 5 or Ciereli at 4.5 x 3 or Cernak at 3x3 the reality is once Tampa matches those offers which can't happen till July 1st they will have used up the 10% overage of the cap (based on a realistic 84 Million) and have 18 roster players at about 6 million over the cap now they have to shed 6 million just to become cap compliant and the lovely reasons you pointed out as to why players like Tampa is the same reasons why Johnson, Gourde, Palat and now it's after July 1st Kucherov all say no I'm not moving we signed our team friendly deals with the NTCs to be here. Alright so now JBB is calling around he has his 3 shiny RFAs and Point he can shop to free up cap and fill 6 roster spots now all these players are absolutely very valuable and under normal circumstances would bring in very nice hauls but we are not under normal circumstances we are under absolutely must shed salary circumstances which negates JBBs leverage in negotiating a trade, and I'm not saying it's impossible I'm just merely pointing out the mass difficulty it will be and yes there are GMs licking there lips and circling in hopes to steal very Quality pieces from a very very good even great team over the last 5 years. Tampa "Easily" matching OS is an empty statement when the repercussions of matching are far from easy.</div></div>

In this case you saying, it was same last year with Calahan. JT MIller + others... Literally nothing changed. Except we have to move 1-4 players instead of 1-3...
Everyone thought Callahan = we pay 1st round pick to get rid of him. Reality we payed like 5th round.
Again if Gourde is a problem for you... then we trade him for less.... than the market value... like let's say he is worth 2nd round+3rd round. In this scenario nobody offers that. We only get offered a 2nd round pick... we take that offer... and he is gone...
Just like everyone else... who doesn't fit under the cap... It's really easy. You don't believe me? Just watch every move BriseBois makes...
He already prepared for next year by trading for Coleman/Goodrow. Next step is: You will see...

Point is staying... If you think he is a trade piece. Open some topics about Ovechkin leaving Washington too... I'm sure people will love it...Zzz...

Let me help you with Point: He is our best player right now... Not Kucherov... Kapischi?
He stays... it's all about offense+defense together in our team + winning the cup. We don't care about points/goals that much, as last year. Last year we had like 24/7 offense team system. Now it's 70% offense/30% defense team system. Point is top3 defensive forward on our team... He is a playmaker who comes back and prevents opponents goals = like Couturier for Philly = untradeable

For example:NYI has 10% offense/90% defensive system. You see we are far away from that system, but we know that 100% offense = no cups...
We needed 5 years for this to figure out it looks like... check the nfl... Kansas was decent defensively with lethal offense = super bowl win...
We need to keep our offense around 3 goals/game --- but until we cannot go under 2.3 goals in the playoffs allowed/game, we are ain't winning sh*t... It's all about balance.
Toronto has bottom 5 defense in league = same as our defense for years... Toronto will soon realize it doesn't work... no team won cup without excellent defenders/defensive style.
Even Crosby had insane help and overachiveing players, when they won... LA was all about defense... ST Louis same... somehow Washington defended well in the cup year... etc...
Point brings us defense = non-tradable. We need more players like him in reality, not trading him away...

I hope BriseBois brings in some good solid Shutdown D-man next year(not Schenn/Bogosian levels), if we don't win the cup this year... 86% that we won't win it... so that's the reality...
Waiving NTC for Johnson/Gourde is not an option, if you think we are in bad cap situation. It's a must. There is no way around it. They already know i suspect... They look sad on the ice... A cup win would overshadow the possible trades/sadness for them... and they would be happy to go... without the cup it will be bittersweet...

But here is the thing, our cap situation is not that bad... we have replacement players and if cap let's say 86.5 million $, we'll be fine, just like last year... Just 1-4 trades needed... Like Coburn... Killorn etc... i already said... Those 3 will get signed... in case not... 1 of them can get traded(under 1% i see this scenario happening)

Cernak/Serg 3.5 mill - Cirelli: 4.5 mill

Can you modify your trades with my numbers? If you really interested in our cap situation... And not 84 million $. That's not happening.... it's gonna be higher...
Then you see it's not that bad. Keep Point ;)
BTW Kapanen trade is also horrifying, i see that dude play all the time. Not a good fit for our needs. At all... He can stay in Toronto...
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2020 at 2:34 p.m.
Thread: Mac back Heddy out
NOT AGAIN PLEASE!!!:cry
We saw what happend, when he is injured... it's not good... see Columbus series last year... and couple matches this year, where i already suspected he doesn't look 100%...
With Stamkos injury... it ended badly... round 2 return at most in playoffs... ouch... that gives us a few % disadvantage instead of the Toronto 70-30% matchup... maybe 65-35 now...

C'mon Cooper... rest him for weeks...
We can't go into playoffs with injured Hedman... Whole D needs to be healthy... Toronto is a good matchup, but it doesn't mean we can take them easy like a sure 4-0 series win... we probably lose a match or two... so i expect right now a 4-2 series win... but we could certainly lose... their offense is same as ours = best in the league... :awesome

Also can Vasi go back to :nhl goalie Vasi form? Only 1 months until playoffs... he looked lately AHL level again like november... WTF... i don't want to pay him 10 million $ / year, if he is this streaky... although streakyness is good in the playoffs... but we need hot streak... and not the cold one, like last year's playoffs...:-/
Right now i can't see him doing 0.925 SV% in the playoffs.... and that's how you win playoffs series(multiple)
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2020 at 2:11 p.m.
Thread: Oof-what a performance
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ConnorMcHellebucyk</b></div><div>A :oilers vs :lightning finals would be amazing.</div></div>

I watched a lot of Edmonton matches lately vs various opponents. What Draisaitl doing this year it's crazy. Sometimes 4 goals, sometimes McDavid 5 points haha...
To beat McDavid in a scoring race, even with a small McDavid injury = Insane.
I don't care about his defensive issues. He should get the trophy. He also produced while McJesus was injured...Like carried the team!

<strong>In my eyes Draisaitl = MVP, Hart trophy etc...</strong>
I like your team chances in 1st round, idk who will be your opponent, the pacific is just crazy to predict...
Even if you guys go against :goldenknights, i can see a world where your team wins :) If Stone injured, out of form = even more chance for your team to win....
It would be a hell of a 1st round series.
<em>TBL-TOR
VGK-EDM</em>

Can't really get any better than that, as far as 1st round matchups are goes... Both would be super explosive series ;)
<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/firstround/2020-03-09/EDM" alt="EDM">

Ahhhhh,it's only 6% that it's happening...oh well... maybe next time haha

<strong>Good luck to your team though </strong> Vs. CGY/VAN/NSH!(most likely opponents right now).
96% that your team makes the playoffs. That's good enough in my book to predict future matchups :cool :cool :cool
Which one you would want to face 1st round, if you could choose? And which one you think your team is hopeless against?

With TBL i hope we avoid in the playoffs Philly/Washington at all costs from the east... Although we can beat them, it's gonna be really hard... and phyisical... so i hope we can get lucky...
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2020 at 1:44 p.m.
Thread: Tampa its gonna be tough
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boomer125</b></div><div>There was literally a signed OS last offseason</div></div>

It helped the Carolina GM. He went to Hawaii sooner to vacation... literally he said it...
...and noone said any Carolina "possibe move the franchise to other city in couple years, like Arizona/Florida" players will not sign offer sheets...
If you ask me about Svechnikov... i have no idea if he signs it or not for 10 million $+...
We are talking about a top3 team in the last 5 years in points collected, yes that's the :lightning in the regular season + multiple playoffs success + future top10 team in the league next few years. ( i doubt we regress to top 16 or worse, like San Jose)
You see the difference between bad franchises vs successful ones. Aka signing an offer sheet to make your life worse (no player like to gets traded where they play for same team for years for no reason).
Money is just a part of a hockey player career. Usually handled by the agent(99%). Player can say the agent : Just sign me any deal you can. Even if it's 2 million less $ for xyz years...
Like Labanc for San jose.

The question in that case was: "I'm Sebastian Aho, what do i choose?"

6 million $ for 6-7 years--- can't remember it perfectly ---&gt;Carolina offer was a joke that's all i remember.
So again a "possible franchise which can be moved anytime the owner wants"/fringe playoffs team. The owner doesn't want to spend money for no success. It's understandable.
Florida already announced they will cut the costs for next year. Believe it or not. Florida will be bad again... If they can't spend to the cap(we'll see what they do)

So the offersheet was Montreal(established franchise - no danger of bad things happening and they like every finnish player and they love to draft them, especially young ones = connection there)
8.2 mill $ for 5 years if i remember correctly

Do you see the difference between a winning franchise with possible cup chance vs. a barely playoffs franchise(possible on the move in 5 years if owners decides enough is enough- few spectators for example = low income) and lot less % to win cups each year in that 5-6 years period? Who would bet on Carolina this year/next year to win it all... It's possible... it's just unlikely... they need a goalie first...

He signed the offersheet because it was a lowball offer from a bad team &amp; from a bad owner and a "not so bright future" franchise.
It was not just about money. See Finnish connection with Montreal.
Another reason why it happend: Montreal f*cked up the drafts to get a true #1 center.
That was their desperate atempt to get one and every single person, who watches the :nhl knows, that it would be matched in 1 hour... Because those draft picks from montreal = 99% worse player than Aho and the caphit they offered was laughable low.
It would've been a true offersheet in my eyes, if it's the highest tier or (maybe 2nd highest with max money offer)...

Let's examine the next tier:
$8,454,872 - $10,568,589
2 First Round Picks
1 Second Round Pick
1 Third Round Pick

This is already bad for Montreal. Probably that's why it's not happend. They need to make sure they are top10 in the league for next 2 years, if they offer this. Unlikely. Even with Aho.
If this offer happend, i wouldn't have laughed about Marc Bergevin, but still would've expected a match there. Like 10 million $ @ 5 years.

So here comes "real offersheet" part:

$10,568,590 - ∞
4 First Round Picks

Obviously you don't really want to give up as a GM this much valuable picks for 1 player... except if he is like McDavid level/Kucherov level/MacKinnon level/Ovechkin level, where you can be 100% sure that tha value in those years and the possible cup % win is worth the risk you're taking. And again you need to make sure if you offersheet that McDavid type of guy... you finish at least top5-10 in the league, that those draft picks = have not too much value . Edmonton + McDavid = not enough to be top 10 you see where im going with this and why it's not worth it?
Like 11.5 million $(Panarin money) for max years possible.


<strong>So you can already see if you follow my drift, that Marc "Genius" Bergevin only missed this offersheet by 2 tiers. </strong>
Turns out he offered it, becuase he thought this Carolina franchise is dieing/owner doesn't like to pay big money... Turns out every franchise/owner can pay any player, unless they don't want to... What a colossal surprise.
If you want to target other teams with offersheet. You should target Florida players, but the success rate there are also questionable, although 100 times more likely, then TBL.
I'm certain Carolina would've taken the 4 x 1st round picks from :canadiens for this particular around 1 point/game player. Who is elite C, but not the best of best of elites. Maybe ~ top40 NHL player.

So all-in-all we are talking about much worse players/less value players(Serg/Cirelli/Cernak), than Aho was on a successful franchise(tampa), where players like everything here.
Like russian Sergachev likes it here, he is really having fun with buddies with Kucherov, Vasilevsky, Volkov sometimes... go to beach etc... money is not nr. 1 thing in this franchise, and every player knows it....
Cirelli is my fav player for a reason... last year it was Point. The compete level for Cirelli is off the charts... not the money what drives him. It's the winning at all costs part... if someone offers 8.3 million $ "AHO money" for Cirelli. So be it. Our GM will make the correct decision based upon the offering team's projections in the next year.
It's a big IF, because who has 8 million $ for a 2nd line center, whose main strength is DEFENSIVE play. Usually these players costs less(for free from UFA or cheaper trades), the players in this salary category are scoring lots of goals/lot more points then 50-60... and almost noone "real" offersheets those guys anyways(60-100 point guys).... so why they didn't offersheet Rantanen last year... oops... because the price is just not worth it...

The offersheet system is flawed and basically non-existant... Needs new rules/new money tiers/less compensation prizes... Currently it's full garbage...

Anytime i see one of these posts... I can write about this topic for a while...
But usually this ends up at the end of our conversation:
Topic opener still thinks "xyz" player will get offersheeted and it will be signed by the player and NOT MATCHED BY THE CLUB = Succesful offersheet
Why? They don't know. Just. Because. Why not? Offersheet = danger = happening = crazy things will happen WITH THE :lightning.
Again i talk about a speicifc team, not about all other teams.

Winning here is priority. I'm sure even JT Miller didn't want to leave last year... he had a good time... he comes back for podcasts etc... whatnot... almost every player likes it here... it's a known fact...
One player i know from a russian interview doesn't really like it here: Volkov Why? Because he can't make it the roster. He has to play in AHL. He wants to play in NHL. You can target Volkov with your offersheet, and i'm certain he will say yes to you generous offer:
$1,395,054 - $2,113,716
1 Third Round Pick
We probably not matching... but it's 50-50. So again. Still can be unsuccesful.
Succesful offersheet = "signed by player + not matched" together. That's why i said Aho = unsuccesful. Like it didn't happend, other than helped the GM cause less trouble for the preseason...+ extended vacation

Do you remember where Kovalkchuk wanted to go? To play with Ovi in Washington... You see these non us/canada players really like when they can speak their own language. Especially when they barely speak english... But that's the signing part... why a player signs it, that's only a small part of the offersheet.
The important part is matching/not matching. Where a lot of people fail to realize, if a club doesn't match it... it's not because of salary reasons... it's because of they think the draft picks = more value than a player.

TLDR:
Real offersheet what should've happened if any GM was serious:

$10,568,590 - ∞
4 First Round Picks Compensation

4 draft picks for Aho + 10.6million $ salary offer = not matched = possible successful offersheet = <strong>that's your literally what happend last year scenario.</strong> Not quite close...
Marc "i need a center or i lose my job" Bergevin only missed it by 2 tiers.
Not by 1 Tier.
2 Tiers.
That's an epic fail...:huh :help


We can talk next, when i see a "successful offersheet"(not matched-otherwise no consequences) on this site... until then... too unlikely it happens... Zero in a decade looks like the reality until next CBA.

Or you can show me players/ offers/ years /salary for offersheet, then i can predict what would happen.(non-TBL players obviously)
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2020 at 12:15 p.m.
Thread: Oof-what a performance
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JTBF81</b></div><div>Lol, sure, only won 16 in a row against them and took one of the most pathetic dives I've ever seen to do it, Tampa missing Stamkos and Hedman while coming off a brutal game 20 hours earlier. Yep Detroit should plan a parade lol. They can enjoy their continued medi ocrity and lost a ton of respect for that team and Larkin with a play like that. I guess they can enjoy their 17th win though.</div></div>

One advanced analytics guy i follow predicted a 75% TBL win for this DET match... He said we should rest players... like a few of them at least...
I was like... he must not have seen the :bruins game like 22 hours earlier or smth...
I mean i agree with him: Load management needs to be implemented in the :nhl sooner or later...
I just didn't agree with his predictions, that without resting players we have 75%...
I thought we have like 50% to win... turned out... we won(so he was right with the 75%)... just the referees screwed us in the whole game...
the topic opener is right: :bluejackets style
They disallowed a 5 on 3 PP and couple other "non-calls". In other words... at least 3-4 penalties... in obvious situations... like -1 kuch goal... that's even worse than a couple not awarded 2 minute minor..

What the referees did in the CBJ matchup? They didn't allow us barely any PP.(intereference/holding non existant for refs in playoffs)
What was our main strength last year = PP. Good job refs... :applaud

That's contributed to around 3-5% for the reason we lost... let's imagine only 5 more power plays awarded in the columbus series... could've been 3 goals = 1 match win... then who knows what's happening if we win 1 game... momentum shifts are real in the league, and that series the refs just helped the other team... i have no doubt, that they will help specific teams this year...
Again Hedman was injured vs Detroit , just like in Columbus series. Result = 4 goals allowed...If Hedman is not in the lineup that's usually what happens... We allow more than 3 goals = hard to win...

CBJ series = all games lots of goals allowed.(thanks to injury + cold Vasi)
If you play with injury, if it's bad, it's worse than a replacement level of player... and Point also played with huge injury(2 surgeries needed).
Those injuries also contributed like 20-30% of the reasons why we lost, other then the refs... There is 1 million other reasons why we lost, which i already explained in other topics...

Anyways, these matches are now placeholders.
We secured the 2nd/3rd place already with 2-3 wins out of like 14... we can lose 10 in a row ... it still won't matter most likely...
This is as acceptable loss thank to the referees... We played bad defense/medicore offense(tired) and we still got 1 point... which is more than enough for us to make the playoffs(we don't care about pres cup anymore)

If the referees called this match even, like they should: this loss would be still okay... so no reason to be panicking...1 point, i'm actually happy at the end of the day...


On the other hand, if we lose in playoffs round 1 vs Toronto----&gt;that would be disaster(even all 4-7 games without Stamkos we still should win) ----&gt; Cooper fired most likely,
so he better help the players win that series(our best matchup from the possible playoffs opponents on the east).
Vs. all other metro teams we have less % to win... so if we can't win that series... how do we want to win anything... after that it's Boston "Tea Time" in the 2nd round...

:lightning Vs. :mapleleafs in 1 month!

Let's go!

Also :lightning Vs. :oilers Stanley-Cup Finals? Are you in? :popcorn
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2020 at 11:41 a.m.
Thread: Tampa its gonna be tough
In other topics, these genius "experts" said Cernak will get offersheeted.
So now:
Cernak = offersheeted
Sergachev = offersheeted
Cirelli = offersheeted

Check out Brayden Point and his offersheets, how that worked out... and he didn't get 10 million $, like the "capfriendly experts" predicted...
Last successful offersheet = in the "stone age". Good luck Armchair GM's.


So now every lottery team giving up their first round draft picks in 2021, just to get all the TBL players... You acquire Serg = you win the cup... right??? Because we are the best... right? No... LUL...
Sure offer a 2nd round pick for the offersheet compensation... easy match in 10 minutes(will delay with 1 week just for lolz)... so it needs to be insane high amount of $...

$4,227,438 - $6,341,152
1 First Round Pick
1 Third Round Pick

6.3 million $ for Serg,Cirelli?
They say: No thanks, i take the 4.x(likely)/5.x(worst case) million $ in tampa... with friendly taxes and beach... and a respectable cup win% instead of missing the playoffs every 2nd year with a mediocre/lottery team...
So you need to offer 8.3 mill $ ... who will offer 8+ mill $ for Serg? Yes...Noone...I repeat NOONE. He might still say: No thanks to 8.x million $... we can just offer him 6.x in that case... with taxes... he only wins by staying here... again look at Point or Kucherov or any other player in NHL history in last decade...

The cap is going to be around 86 million... up to 88 million possible...
The projection is 84-88... if we are lucky is closer to 88, than 84...

Current predictions:
Cernak/Serg: 3.5 mill / Cirelli: 4.5mill / Shatty:gone / Killorn:gone / 1 of TJ/Gourde:gone / Coburn:gone / Paquette: stays
Might be 1 of the 3 RFA's get a big 6-8 years contract with higher caphit, if not all 3 bridged... that's it...

This is BASIC cap management. The other way is : Trade players away. EASY again.
NTC's doesn't matter. Parise just waived his. Other guy from NYI just waived. Kessel waived for Arizona... didn't for Minnesota...
Thornton just waived for a couple of teams...
Players waive it, if they see no future in the lineup. THE GM will tell them: Bye. They waive it. Simple. Not for :redwings or :senators For a team they like = half the league... or more...

Let me tell you, if we need to choose between TJ vs Serg. We choose Serg.
TJ vs Cirelli. We choose Cirelli.
Gourde vs same players. Same result.
They will be gone, if needed... if we have cap for them, then they stay... this is not rocket science...
Who doesn't want good 40-50 points middle6 players for free? We played JT Miller on 4th line. See how that turned out...
This year no different, than any other... Vasi already solved... next up: other RFA's...
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 9, 2020 at 10:43 a.m.
Thread: Bogosian appreciation thread
Bogosian just 1 word:

YIKES

Sure any guy can play 1 or 2 good game...

Have you checked out the "Zamboni driver"? Vs. the "Superstars Elite Squad" :mapleleafs

I never thought i will say this: but please come back RUTTA...
If this cost us the cup(not trading for a respectable fringe 2nd or even 3rd!!! pairing right handed D-man, i will be mad at BriseBois...

Things still look alright, but i'm not that hopeful now, that Hedman's starting to get injured again.<strong>OUR MOST IMORTANT PIECE</strong> in the playoffs.
Together with Stamkos... Who is really good at faceoffs... = would have been huge in 1st round... in case we lose there...
We might lose to :mapleleafs :bruins :flyers :capitals first 3 rounds, then no cup for us again... if you can't reach the final, you have 0% to win... as everyone of you knows... right?
If Bogosian plays, that's +1 goal/game allowed vs any good team... He is not good... he makes insane errors like Schenn...

<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/wotFQ4x.png" alt="wotFQ4x.png"><em>As you can see right now top favourite:
Philly:12.6%
2nd is VGK(my guess right now still to win it all)
3rd favorite:Colorado(my 2nd fav team)
TBL right now on 4th place like 9%</em>


Another advanced stat site(the athletic) still predicts us ~ 21% favorite to win cup... that's crazy high, i hope they will got it right :cool

I also check sometimes hockey-reference for playoffs odss:
<em>Colorado: 14% to win cup
TBL: 12%
Boston: ~11% as well </em>

So i like to aggregate chances, because more sources = better overall knowledge.

<strong>Based on all 3 sites combined = 14% to win the cup</strong>... not bad considering 6.25% is the default chance if you think all 16 teams in the playoffs are equally likely to win it all.

ONLY 1 Month and playoffs begins... C'mon BOYZ! Bring the cup home!

Bogosian or whatnot, we need to go deep! Maybe Gaunce will play... he usually plays alright...
Shattenkirk late in season = regressing = not a good sign... maybe he needs to go back 3rd pairing D, then he will be fine again vs opponents 3rd/4th lines... he can't handle top6 players... that's obvious...
Detroit game 4 goals allowed... even if it's back2back... it was still bad... even though we lost, because the refs didn't want us to win...(numerous missed calls + disallowed legal goal by Kuch)
But we still allowed too many goals... i know we will finish 2nd in atlantic, so it doesn't matter, but still... i hope we crush toronto next game... we lost the last one... that was unlucky... dat Nylander PP goal was crazy...
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 9, 2020 at 9:25 a.m.
Thread: (NJD/TBL) - Coleman for Foote and 2020 1st round pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>
Better to predict at the start.</div></div>

I like to predict throughout the year, to see how wrong i was(too much parity u know haha)

So anyways,back to playoffs chances...
<strong>I think now we can handle every team physically except 3: Wsh/Philly/St. Louis...</strong>
I think they will still outmuscle us: those 3 teams---&gt;but 27/30 matchups = fine, we are pretty balanced now... :cool
On the other hand Washington will have problems in the playoffs, unless they can fix their defense = not that balanced.
I thought Samsonov is the key for Washington, but it looks like he went back to earth... maybe it's team defense as welll.... i think last few months Wsh = 3.5 goals allowed/game, which is bottom 5 in whole league...

With NYI nowadays losing every single game... and looking hopeless offense... now i think the most dangerous opponent is :flyers

Fair enough moneypuck.com(pretty good advanced stat site - i just discovered) predicting right now that they will win the cup...

<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/wotFQ4x.png" alt="wotFQ4x.png"><em>So as you can see top favourite:
Philly:12.6%
2nd is VGK(my guess right now still to win it all)
3rd favorite:Colorado(my 2nd fav team)
TBL right now on 4th place like 9%</em>

Carter Hart i don't think he is ready for a cup win yet... so that's why i think we can win vs them... You always need a hot goalie to win the cup... I've never seen so far Philly had a hot goalie in last few years... If he is just above average... we can win the series 4-2(maybe 4-3). So that's a final for us... and there anything can happen based on who the opponent will be...

The other advanced stat site i mentioned last week(the athletic) still predicts us ~ 21% favorite to win cup...

I also check sometimes hockey-reference for playoffs odss:
<em>Colorado: 14% to win cup
TBL: 12%
Boston: ~11% as well </em>

So i like to aggregate chances, because more sources = better overall knowledge.

<strong>Based on all 3 sites combined = 14% to win the cup</strong>... not bad considering 6.25% is the default chance if you think all 16 teams in the playoffs are equally likely to win it all.

Penguins: 6% based on hockey-reference ;) there is hope for you haha...;wink Not that bad, even though i give them 1% :|

PS. I just discovered the Marino trade with Edmonton - that's a highway robbery for you guys.... why Edmonton give up on that guy without playing in the league? Your GM was genius in that trade :nod :rockon
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 9, 2020 at 9:20 a.m.
Thread: (NJD/TBL) - Coleman for Foote and 2020 1st round pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>I think they are going to end up canceling games or something. I wouldn't say that if I didn't see it here in europe first.
There were like 6 people in the US now there are like 100 and hundreds of others that are suspected.
They won't treat this like the flu because the death rate internationally is 3.5%
That's really high.

As for the draft. I won't believe it till I see it. Those stupid cards...nope. That ain't it boss.
If it's not rigged just do the drawing with the balls live. Last I knew they use a "computer" to do it. But it's funny how it always seems to work out best for revenue.

The penguins had no defense for ever with injuries they just got 2 of their top 4 back against OTT. So they will look decent again. Still I don't like their chances. The team is just blah with the injuries.
They look ok when healthy. Would have been nice to see Jake but he's done. i think they make the playoffs out of lack of other teams. If Atlantic had better teams and the metro wasn't always taking 5 slots it would be different. But with CBJ always hurt too, the penguins at worst get 8th seed. Which actually might be best route for them lol.

Is Stamkos done? I think I read regular season but is he out the playoffs too?
I read Stone is out for VGK too, for the year. Not sure if that's true but if it is, that really hurts them.</div></div>

/virustopicon
I heard the death rate is going down - some future predictions are already saying it's closer to 2% death rate, and some even predicting it's only ~ 1%, just to compare: influenza has 0.1% death rate, so yes it's worse, but not the worst disease ever.
I heard if you're under 40, you are almost guaranteed to survive(under 10 years no deaths reported), like 0.5% or lower deathrate, which is far from like a random cancer...
The problem i heard is when you can't breathe, or you already have some lung problem in general. So if you don't smoke, don't live in city, where there is horrible air-pollution, then you will be probably fine, if you're young-middle age...
Again, the problem is with old people over 60, over 70+... those people are in danger yes. But from the people shopping even in my city(flour missing from shops), it seems everyone is panicking... it happend in this week in hungary with some iranian tourist, so it's appeared here in my country as well now... We'll see if it get's really bad or not. Hopefully we won't reach Italy levels of spread... or korea...
/virustopic off

Well i predict Ottawa to win the lottery, we'll see who wins pretty soon :cool
It's balls, not cards haha:P
No, they don't use computer... That's just for displaying the results, after the balls were drawn from the bowl for the public to see the results :)

I have just seen almost full Carolina-Pittsburgh 1st matchup of the year... it seems to me almost whole team is healthy... Bjugstad, Marino, Dumoulin etc... all there...
Zucker = invisible on the ice... Sheary = same as in buffalo = not good anymore... Rodrigues = alright...
You guys play the easy 2 bottom tier teams(wins)--&gt; then play with a solid team = easy loss...

Again , what happend? I expected at least overtime or a super close game vs Carolina AT HOME. Result = big loss...
That "new rookie player" Geeky just outworked the pens...
Even Jarry doesn't look like a god now... he looked insane earlier in the season, just like Vasi from late dec-mid feb... I thought the problem was Murray, but now i see it's the team defense. Like there is no 5 man unit on the ice there.
Maybe the Kahun trade will cost you a playoffs series win idk at this point... I would bet on Wsh/Philly in the 1st round with a 80% certanity...

The Wsh-Pittsburgh game i saw as well... i expected a :capitals victory... they didn't disappoint me...
They were clearly the better team... they were super physical as usual... 3-0 first period... game was already over i knew...
Wow, that seems impossible to me that Penguins going down to 8th. That would be a Boston-Pittsburgh matchup, which would be pretty close i think. Yes that's better matchup then vs metro teams for sure...
Well the problem with tanking that low is that you might miss the playoffs, so that's super risky... i don't think that's Mike Sullivan's goal to barely miss the playoffs...

As for Stone, i think he predicted to comeback before reg season ending... so it's more like week-to week. it doesn't look that bad... but they can be lying so you never know... some teams doesn't like to tell the truth about bad injuries for a while..

<strong>Stamkos is easy for you to know, it's the exact same injury as for Crosby this year.</strong>
I checked for Crosby and it was 1.5 months to skate + 2 weeks to play = full 2 months recovery needed... idk if it was that long, because they were super careful, so it could have been ~7 weeks around.
From this it looks to me he is for sure missing 1st round playoffs Vs :mapleleafs (90% we play them) :cry
So it means Toronto has like close to 35-40% to beat us... it's not the best news for my team chances to win it all... if we fail to win vs Toronto, i think we deserve our faith... that team never caused trouble for us for years... It should be on paper a 4-2 series victory... fingers crossed we don't choke...

The key piece for us in the playoffs is Hedman though.
Without Hedman our defense = 3 or 4 goals allowed / game. :huff
With Hedman it can go down to 2.0 or 2.5/game... it's insane i know...:tonguewink
That's why we lost last year in playoffs that badly as well.
Injured Hedman = worse then replacement level defender... when u have a terrible 1st pairing D vs top lines like Panarin/Duchene... + the hot goalie Bobrovski... you can check the results... 50% pk... etc...
But vs Toronto--&gt;it's a much better matchup because they are not phyisical... so it's possible for us with injuries as well to outgrind them.

Have you seen the :bruins vs :lightning match 2 days ago? We won 5-3<strong> IN Boston!!! , where nobody wins</strong> in the :nhl... Boston is like 26-3-5 at home...
It was the most insane phyisical match i've ever seen between these 2 teams... there were like 4-5 fights... crazy big hits... big hits/scrums all over the game + dirty hits by Chara+Cirelli... it was just playoffs hockey 100% level... and we handled Marchand again...
Maroon vs Chara fight hahaaa that was cool
Goodrow helped in that part of the game again. We won't get pushed around any more by 8+ teams...(like Columbus + others last year)
I can see why BriseBois wanted to bring him in haha(soooooo expensive though...)...
I checked the new guys:Kase in advanced stats, he was the best in Anaheim for creating offense. He causes trouble for us... But we managed somehow...
Charlie Coyle also pretty good, so we will have more trouble this year based on this last match... At least that Ritchie dude is not good at all...
This series will be pretty close in the 2nd round...(except if u guys finish 8th on east and cause an upset hahaaa)
But i think if Stamkos comes back, we can still win barely (4-3 series win).

I just can't ever see Boston losing in 1st round to any wild card team except the Penguins :)
They looked really good vs Carolina/Islanders/Rangers... every time i watch those games.... feels to me Boston just can't lose those games...
So i always expect a Boston-TBL 2nd round matchup 90%... unless upsets...
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 3, 2020 at 7:36 p.m.
Thread: Is MCMICHAEL the best player in the 19 draft
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Capitalfail67</b></div><div>Yeah no teenager ever had success playing against men. Haha 26 point pace vs “men” or a 160 point pace vs “teenagers”. You are coming off stupid and I hope this isn’t the case

Nobody is saying the OHL is the NHL. We are saying that their NHL success isn’t there. They are producing at a 3-5th rounder pace. Guys are producing at a really good 4th liners pace. Look at Matthews Eichel Mc David they were teenagers and top picks as well</div></div>

I really iked McMichael in the :nhl preseason, he impressed me. I looked up a couple of prospects in diff games in PS and check how they are doing in diff teams. He stood out to me like a "steal". And he is super young...
That's far from "real" NHL level, but still. The closest we have so far.

On the other hand all tampa's prospects disappointed me... At least on the offensive front don't think we have a new Kuch/Point/Cir/Palat type of guy anymore... but i hope i'm wrong... well our draft luck is not infinite, yzerman was crazy good though.
I will be curious to see If Seider is the real deal... or he didn't made the correct choice...

Imo Hughes will be the best... He is like Point 2.0 - Excellent playmaker - 100 points player
Finally Buffalo found a good one, Cozens, i feel he will be also pretty good.
Byram - jeez - i can't wait to see him play in the nhl...
I think this draft class was not a "bust/overhyped"...

Next draft is gonna be crazy good: That's for sure, whatever the media says... check the players... lots of them already insanely talented, not just 5...
Easily best draft in last 10 years. :cool