F3ruS

Go Boltz! & Go Avs!
Member Since
Nov 14, 2018
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Tampa Bay Lightning
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Colorado Avalanche
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Hungary
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Biography
Watching NHL since ~ 2000.
Lifelong Tampa Bay Lightning supporter.

From 2019/2020 season i found my 2nd team:
Colorado Avalanche
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 3:04 am
Thread: Kovi
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>J2W</b></div><div>You seem to be deliberately misinterpreting.</div></div>

I don't misinterpret anything, i'm just randomly talking with you about an interesting topic, like Ilya...
Anway 1 month passed, and he didn't help Montreal achieving anything. So what you think who wants him, when he can't help you win more?
The problem = no defense. Yes you can put him with defensive forwards(most of his linemates in Mtl) and they hide his weakness. But if you put him with random players... it will show... I see what Montreal is doing, but it's not gonna work... when he is that good... like lots of points, game winners... you should be better as a team, yet it's the same story. really small playoffs %.
So let's see a contender like Colorado trades for him: where they use him? With MacKinnon or what? I mean they could try it for a 5th round i guess... but is he really gonna help you in anything?
My answer: Nope
I would fire any gm who trades for him insane high picks(like a 2nd) and shows no success in the playoffs(or by not making the playoffs from a bad position).

I think trading him will work like this(and not 1 on 1 Kovi for 1 pick):
You trade for other pieces. Let's say you trade for Domi/Tatar, then you include him as a bonus to make the trade go through, so both teams are happy at the end for that 1st round pick/ good prospect which goes into montreal...

:canadiens gets:
1st round pick + 2nd round pick + 1 prospect

:flyers gets:
Tatar
Kovalchuk

or
:capitals gets:
Petry
Kovalchuk

So you can hide the true value of what Kovalchuk worth in the trade. I hope you see what i mean. It's embrassing to trade for an old player who were available for free(23 roster limit cmon noone cares about that u cannot be serious, it's 50 and you can move people in the AHL... and vica versa anytime...), then you lose a HIGH draft pick(according to some posters here) and not achieve anything in the playoffs... I will actually laugh if he gets traded 1 on 1 for a high pick... and will keep note how long that gm will keep his job...:laugh

Question still stands though: :canadiens should trade him or not at all? Toronto lost today to Buffalo for example...

19 games 12 points right now for Kovi. Montreal lost last 4 games... and other than Weber, they look like healthy right now...
You see points are not everything...
BTW if you include overtime wins+ so wins, it could be 8 game losing streak for montreal... and the teams which they beat, were new jersey and anaheim and toronto(lul)... not exactly powerhouses... so is Kovi helped that much afterall? 0 regulation wins in last 8 games. Or you only blame the coach + other players?
I think they should start to sell asap at least 3/4 players for this upcoming deep draft. Montreal needs to find a young elite forward or 2... Defense i heard Romanov will be good... + hopefully Weber fully healthy next season so that's ok...
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 2:33 am
Forum: NHL TradesMon at 2:08 am
Forum: NHL TradesMon at 1:51 am
Hmm, interesting! I didn't expect a trade this soon. Looked like a dry market for sooo long... nuiiiceeee...
It's gonna be a long post again, sorry. :rolleyes

So:
<strong>We just got "A Diamond in the Rough"</strong>

If we win the Cup in 2020/2021 with the help of "pickles", (that's his nickname) then it was def worth the steep price. If we fail, it was still worth a shot to go for it. :nod
It's not like we are :bluejackets who went allin for 1 playoffs round win(bad strategy by GM), our team is stacked and by all bookmakers+analytics guys top5 fav to win the cup this year. Even after the disastrous start in oct-dec...

I'm disappointed in the comments(but not the votes): BriseBois did well once again!:cool
Coleman was on my target list since 2019 middle: But i thought the price is too high for him... Looks like i was right... I'm still happy about this trade, and can't wait to see him in our jersey.
Just like Maroon, everybody is going to love this guy. :hearteyes We had garbage PK last year's playoffs, this trade ensures that our PK is gonna be rock solid this year's playoffs.

Imagine Point,Cirelli as our only 2 top tier defensive forwards - we missed a 3rd one for a long time in our lineup(palat is not bad,but still not elite): it's Coleman. Oh baby it's a triple! :applaud :rockon :applaud
Defense = everything in the playoffs, forgot about the 20 goals he scored... if we can stop Ovechkin,Barzal,Crosby,Malkin,Pastrnak in the playoffs to score every game vs us, we can go deep. And he will def help with that part.
Toronto got Clifford, except he doesn't have offensive upside. It was cheaper, but they might not even make the playoffs... so it's not about who wins the trades for contenders... it's about who wins the cup... Will Toronto win the cup with Clifford? We'll see about that in a few months...

So about trade value:if Canucks make the playoffs: around 20-25th draft pick = unknown, even in a super deep great draft - not what we need
Foote = projected 2nd round pick = still unknown, we only picked him because of history with the other Foote(s). He looks to be like Blake Coleman 2.0 in 2025... worth to wait until then with prime Kuch+Stammer+Pointerz+Mr. Norris&amp;Vezina? I doubt it...

:lightning All-in FTW, now we need to get a RHD and we are set.
<strong>My choice: Josh Manson or Jonas Brodin for a 1st round pick + prospect(s) if needed.</strong>
We can still go after Risto as well, like last year... Let's see if BriseBois will get him this time or :sabres keep him 4ever for no reason...
(they need to tank = the worse defense u have ---&gt; the better chance u can tank - check what Yzerbro &amp; Detroit doing this year... ;) I hope Detroit gets 1st overall, but top4 still should be solid for them...)

So for playoffs, Dream Defense:
Hedman-Manson(Brodin/Risto)
McDonagh-Cernak
Sergy-Shatty

Backups in case of injuries: Rutta,Schenn,Coburn - when they are fresh&amp;fully healthy they are not that bad, but when they are tired and vs top opponents = AHL level defense from all of those 3 unfortunately
I don't wanna start the playoffs with Rutta starting... top players can exploit him too easily... Schenn donates free goals for opponents in every 2nd game...

Oh and i forgot to mention: Coleman,unlike Point or Cirelli, hits a lot(like Paquette) and he hits hard = huge value in the playoffs.
<strong>1.8 mill $ caphit = insane for next 1.5 years... (makes it one of the best contract in whole :nhl</strong> and we can also extend him, if he wants to stay. Comparables: Couturier,Labanc
Skinner = 9 million $ vs. Coleman 1.8 million $
This contract helps us give new contracts to Serg+Cirelli+Cernak and we can sell 1(or 2) of Killorn/Johnson/Gourde. Depends who is willing to go...
I would keep Killorn - and let the other 2 go, but that's gonna be hard to do considering the NTC's.

If someone still has some doubts about him or the trade, here are some advanced stats about him.
It's important to note he played on a bad team, without a good goalie + horrible defense + bad offense... Yet the numbers looks good:
Offense:
<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWi/1920/N.J/colembl91/" alt="colembl91"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWo/1920/N.J/colembl91/" alt="colembl91">

+3% overall = respectable

Defense:
<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWi/1920/N.J/colembl91/" alt="colembl91"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWo/1920/N.J/colembl91/" alt="colembl91">

+10% = elite level on defense, additionally he is like Paquette on the PK
plus-minus stat: -2, compared to Zajac+Gusev he is much better...again pretty good... so it's not just shots...

For Tampa fans: think of him, like we got Kreider for 1.5 years. It's debatable who is the better player right now... For caphit/ $ value for next 1.5 years Coleman wins hands down...
Kreider = 0.5 years only = pure rental... If someone extends Kreider = huge caphit = not what we need for 2020/2021.
Devils won the trade no doubt, but it's still a really good deal for us = almost a win-win in the vote... not too shabby...
I would take him over Zucker as well... and Penguins paid similar price... for worse caphit...
This trade is not as bad as it looks at first sight, you just have to dig a little deeper to understand the player's value + team needs...

Other positive side of this trade: One more reason to check out couple New Jersey games in next couple years, to check how the other Foote is playing. Maybe he will play with Hughes. That would be fun to watch for sure. I'm sure he will get a lot more icetime there. So more playing time = better development hopefully for him...
The Sedin's were fun together.
Rip Foote brothers dream in tampa :cry
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 9 at 7:50
Thread: Kovi
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>J2W</b></div><div>Plenty of players have had bumps in their play based on a change of scenery, and if Kovalchuk is added to that number then his play in MTL will be the deciding factor for his value, not the full season. It will be up to the buyers to decide whether to take the risk of him regressing, although if he keeps putting in an adequate defensive effort most will likely be willing to do to how cheap his cap hit will be, although again the actual return is likely going to be based on his offensive output and what teams are buyers (those teams health, and so on).
Plenty of shots get blocked every game, it's more luck than age that matters in that regard, because any 3rd line rental getting injured now (assuming fracture or similar from shot blocking) is likely a non factor at the deadline regardless of age. Although I love how him blocking shots suddenly became a bad thing to you lol.</div></div>

Yeah just from a value perspective, it's risky... that's why the low value.
They all connected. For me it's a good thing, just don't get injured... and looking at his playing history, maybe he didn't play, because he was injured, i don't know...
All i know is, noone wanted him for 1 way contract 700k $ - which is the reality...
I know you claim teams just didn't bother with him... and now they will... interesting opinion about all the other 20-22 teams who still want to make a playoffs. They are so bad that a super valuable player, like Kovi, is just not an option.(They are really busy they can't evaluate one single 35+ year old player)

But a magical GM, like Bergevin... he is so smart he is above all the other GM's, he gets him for free , then flips him for the huge profit in less than 2 months. YEP. Good Job! I thought they signed him to make the playoffs at all costs... Hmm... Another anomaly we have here... Playoffs or no playoffs.

Montreal has a tendency to keep their players lately, just saying... if he is that valuable, they will keep him... I heard the Montreal GM overvalues all of his players...
What if Kovi playing so well --&gt; Montreal is 7 points out off playoffs spot only at TDL --- Keep Kovi or try to cash in on the respectable 4th round pick? Which one is the correct choice?
That would be fun to see his decision then! I hope they don't lose more than 50% of the games until TDL.... so we might see the results...^^
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 9 at 7:17
Thread: Kovi
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 9 at 7:12
Thread: Kovi
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>J2W</b></div><div>As of right now in MTL, small sample size, Kovalchuk has more blocks and hit per game than Kreider, so he has some grit and toughness to him and is willing to play some defense, although that isn't what teams looking for cheap depth scoring at the deadline will be overly worried about.
Your logic is flawed, because a quarter of the season is more than long enough for things to change, just look at how the playoff picture has changed in the last 40 days.
I don't hate the 2nd round pick conversation, I was just never part of it.
It's to early to determine what Kovalchuk's value will be, 2 games in MTL doesn't show anything, if he magically stays a 1.5 pts/gm player he will be worth more than if he doesn't get another point. He probably ends up somewhere in the middle, which given his play since returning to the NHL and assuming a normal number of teams looking for cheap depth, and Kovalchuk's cap is almost non existent (and I think roster limits disappear), he probably fetches a condition 4th, upgrading based on his scoring in the playoffs.
I'm on the topic because your logic was, from my view, faulty and I felt like pointing it out, but making a guess never hurt anyone. Although making a guess based on a 2 game sample size when he has 22 more before the deadline isn't likely to be accurate.</div></div>

Nice answer! Now we are talking! So in this topic there is from 2nd,4th,5th,7th.

4th is possible yes, thats almost always a bust :) Except when it's Johnny Gaudreau right Hahahaa :rockon

You need to combine the LA + Montreal though, so there is an alright number of games. This year is the same season. Montreal + LA both out of playoffs = not much difference. it's around 0.5 point/game right now. Blocking shots is only good when you don't get injured though ;) If injury + weeks of sitting out = low value. Need dat fast recovery ability = the younger the body the better , i guess u know this ;)
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 9 at 6:45
Thread: Kovi
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>J2W</b></div><div>What are you talking about, who said anything about 110 points in 80 games? No one expects prime Kovalchuk, but considering his pts/gm this season are comparable to Kreider, and he is a fraction of the cap hit for a team looking for depth scoring, he will have some value at the deadline. How much value he has will depend on his performance in MTL. Honestly I don't really know or care what he will get, I just know that your logic of no one signed him so he has no value is incredible flawed. By that logic any undrafted player has no trade value because no one picked them, and any UFA who doesn't get a contract offer on July 1st has no value because obviously if anyone else wanted them they would have made an offer right?</div></div>

BUT his defensive play/thoughness/grit/leadership/age and 1 billion other things... is nothing close to Kreider. You can't just take 1 stat = points for a player and say they are close.... they are not close.... Kreider is the guy who every contender wants... just check any thread... Kovalchuk is the guy who almost noone wants for big value going back to Montreal... 7th rounder sure... but that's very far away from the 2nd...

My logic is not flawed: 40 days in Montreal is not magically turns a 7th round pick into a 3rd round... let's talk about a 3rd then... seems like you hate the 2nd round conversation, when u say things like: "i didn't say it". Oh yes you didn't say 110 points, yes you didn't say anything except high production? or was that not you as well? Tell me your numbers then we can talk, For me "high production" = have no meaning = empty words. I just used some random good numbers for an NHL player... So it's your turn, cause u don't like my picks + numbers... what your want to talk about then?

So i say 3rd round now or less... is that okay for you... but you can answer your value evaluation and we'll see who will be closer when the trade happens.... cause why are you writing in the topic, if you're not writing your own guesses... that's the fun part imo...

So let's forget about 2nd .... just write your own opinion then! Simple things... and we'll see who's logic was flawed at february 25th...

Kreider: 4.6 million $ caphit for full year = 2.3 million $ caphit if now traded --&gt;will be less at trade deadline = 50% retention = almost free - so his contracts numbers it's basically has no meanings... compared to Kovalchuk 700k$ it's indifferent if any team has like 1 million capspace.... that's not an issue with Kreider.
Issues: :rangers wants to sell him or not: Currently they said = Kredier = stays = lies in my opinion but we'll see...
Kreider = super cheap if someone wants to trade for him... that's my point = big value

AND no i didn't say he has no value, i said he has less than 2nd rounder value...in other words LOW VALUE, which is currently to me stays at 7th rounder... for others it's 5th...
so is Mike Condon + 7th rounder = don't matter to you? Or just a random nhl goalie: Mike Condon.... Noone wants him, but if u sign him he can be just as good as kovalchuk... you just never know... he could have 0.915 SV % you just never know...

And yes your last question, the later you sign after july 1st... your value goes down significantly... it's obvious every year.... look at Maroon signing or Gardiner... really easy to see... lower and lower... biggest splashes happens first day... no magic there... max value there &amp; overpaid lots of players there.(by bad GM's)
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 9 at 6:28
Thread: Kovi
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bf3351</b></div><div>I've already explained myself about the 2nd rounder"example" so if you can't read that's your problem. I am not going to break it down again. I did not mention anything about Kovi getting more than 700k(league minimum) so I don't know where you are getting these numbers 701k and 3M lmao</div></div>

If you get offered a contract between 700k and 701k... you take the 701k... you don't care about the city... it's math... bigger = better. The first number is just a small number +1k, i'm getting it from basic math classes.
701k &gt; 700k I could have written 710k. Same stuff. He simply didn't have that offer on the table, as there was no interest about him ... lots of teams have more valueable players...

In reality the max offer was 70k... so i could have written 71k... capisci? Right now it's actually a 70k $ contract... it's funny... but it's true... noone even called him for a 1 way 700k $ contract, so in this case you are correct... so i correct myself. 70k vs 71k... teams really didn't bother with him...

He is not worth a roster spot in LA... otherwise he would still be playing in LA... easy conclusion... noone was harsh with him... it happens to every player... he is no difference... Everyone knows in the league he can't defend = low value

The second number, is what you refering with a value player, like a 3 million guy... A real offer for a 2nd rounder type of player, which still incredible hard to imagine... how much did he make in LA like 6 mill $? It's just a random number between 2 and 4 mill(obv he is not worth 6 mill anymore ever - no idea why LA offered him that contract in the first place) for fair contract offer if he had that value(like a 2nd rounder), but he didn't. Nothing will change in Montreal. Same as nothing changed in KHL. He is too old. LMAO 2nd rounder LMAO we can keep going... even though you are not showing me anything... we can keep talk about nothing :laugh I'm sure his value will go up through the roof in 40 days :rolleyes

Just to see i'm listening to you: I have a new offer for Montreal: Mike Condon + 7th rounder

Is that acceptable for you? You get a free 7th rounder for nothing. = win for Montreal. And tampa gets an insurance if Stamkos injured on the power play, he will replace him straight from the AHL. And no sitting out there! He needs to play every remaining game to help the prospects developing. I hope he can do that... Otherwise i take back my 7th rounder, if he is not playing in the AHL.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 9 at 6:16
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 9 at 5:45
Thread: Kovi
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 9 at 5:38
Thread: Kovi
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 9 at 5:29
Thread: Kovi
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 9 at 5:14
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 9 at 4:55
Thread: Kovi
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bf3351</b></div><div>I stated above that that was an example. Obviously he'd need to do very well which I think he is capable of.</div></div>

But then why nobody signed him for 701K? You get my point? The stats are there, the eyetest are there, the advanced stats are here. Even if he scores 20 goals in 20 matches. I still wouldn't pay for him a 2nd rounder, if you catch my groove... It's just not worth it for that particular player at any point of this season.

For me max value i would give up for him - no joke: Mike Condon from Tampa.

Does Montreal accept that trade? I would hesitate to give up a 7th rounder. Who knows, that 7th rounder can be a 1% solid player = more value in the long run...
In other words he has right now 0.9% value in my eyes = 8th round = non existant = he stays for remainder of the season there... or you can get Mike Condon ;)

The issue again = defensive side of the hockey, you can't go into the playoffs like tampa does every year... 24/7 offense. that leads to 1st round sweeps sometimes... yes if the forwards are hot = cup finals with 3+ goals/game, but that's hard to do... You neeed to go back to your own zone and block shots/disrupt players/check them/crush them.
If you watch hockey long time you should remember what :kings did in those cup years.... that was really gritty hockey, similar to St. Louis... :blackhawks was all-star team kinda, that's why we lost vs them... they were just better players. Prime Kane vs rookie Kucherov
Well Pittsburgh, they won because they were stacked, but they also could defend, unlike us in last couple years...
That's why until you see Tampa allowing 2.8 goals/game = you can bet huge money we are not winning the cup... unless we score 3.0 goals/game on average = last year it was under 2 goals scored/game ) = sweep, same story vs Washington... game6+7 1 year before... our offense just fails in playoffs, sooner or later... Kovalchuk ain't helping too much if every single player fails to score...

Like what :blues did last year. There was no Kovalchuk there... You can go back more years... You need prime players+ superstars+ defense+ hot goalie. Not aging once upon a time elite-forwards, who are on like Milan Lucic levels... i know he is better offensively, but i hope you understand why he signed for 700k... and why his contract was terminated... he would be good in KHL no doubt again though... anyways long -story short = no 2nd rounder from any team, i'm quite sure about that... quote me, if opposite happens...

<strong>On the other hand i would pay 2nd rounder(conditional 1st) for Danault</strong> + a prospect or 2(Joseph-ABB-Raddysh-Katchouk type of guys)... that guy looks high value for me for playoffs... Is :canadiens willing to sell that guy? And go for Lafraniere full tank mode...?
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 9 at 4:42
:lightning needs none of those pieces... try with new players.

My prefered player right now from the :ducks :
Josh Manson - defensive right handed defensman/ good on the pk - we need one of these guys or we rip hard again in the playoffs...

I doubt we can get Toffoli/Kreider so i would go for Bertuzzi/Manta from :redwings if Yzerman feels like he needs lot of picks for the draft in the next 5 years.
We have a couple to give up... + we can send back Raddysh/Katchouk/Joseph/ABB. He can choose who he wants for the rebuild... Or he can try his luck with our newly drafted promising goalie: Alnefelt.

Mantha is a huge player, and those type of guys regressing really fast around 30, so by the time the rebuild is over he is 30.... better to sell for max value now, rather than waste his prime years...
He can win the cup here, if things go well in those 5 years at least once... Tampa is good in every year... a guy like him would worth gold for us, when we will struggle in the playoffs to score 2 goals(instead of our 4.0 regular season average).
I checked our team stat and our shooting % in playoffs drops dramatically --&gt; teams are adopting and defending hard in playoffs vs us --&gt; we need thoughness + defense. We could win the cup with 3.5 goals/game, but unfortunately we should be happy after playoffs is over if it's over 2.5...
GAA = around 3.0 usually = we can't win the cup

But if we add Manson + Mantha = we can go down to like 2.3 GAA(hot goalie Vasilevsky) = only need to score 2.5 goals/game to win on average...
It's that simple... We need to defend like :islanders did all year(that's why the trades = allin for Manson/Mantha) or we just can't have success...
Tyler Johnson will not do too much in playoffs... Kucherov doesn't like to defend+Stamkos making so many bad errors this year in his own zone = need huge support for him... Gourde is too small to be a factor... Unfortunately we were built for offense for the last few years, but now it's time to change the culture. This year should be a good chance, cause lots of teams are having leaks, so we can go to the conference finals... And there anything can happen, then we can get lucky in the finals... If no changes happening, we might lose in 1st-2nd round... We probably can beat :mapleleafs :bruins, but it's far from 100% with current roster. It's a good matchup at least, so if we finish top3, we play those teams... But we need to think about vs a possible :capitals matchup... We lost 3 in a row this year vs them...

Granlund + Labanc believe me, they wouldn't help to beat the caps... i would rather get then a guy like Reeves from Vegas... for much cheaper...