SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

FreezingYotes

Member Since
Mar. 31, 2021
Favourite Team
Arizona Coyotes
2nd Favourite Team
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forum Posts
43
Posts per Day
0.0
Forum: NHL TradesAug. 15, 2023 at 2:08 p.m.
Thread: (DET/MTL) - Lindström, 2025 4th (DET) for Petry
People over valued Petry. There is no cap space to go around. He also has term. Had they made the three way trade back at the draft, maybe Montreal might have been able to create a better market for Petry, but anybody who thought he was anything short of a negative value asset has not been paying attention to how the last two off seasons have worked. Especially later in the season when teams reach their choke points with the cap.

You also have to consider that they took on Casey DeSmith's contract. I assume if there was a market for him, the Penguins would have moved him earlier. I could be wrong, but I assume he is dead cap. They gave up Pitlick, but he was able to have his entire cap hit buried. DeSmith's cap hit is 675k.

Mike Hoffman's buyout would have cost them 1.66M x 2 years. They are now on the hook for 2.34M for 2 years. So this three way trade cost them about 680k per for 2 seasons (1.368M of dead cap) and a retention spot for 2 seasons. Retention spots are generally worth a mid or late round pick at the deadline. Add in the 675k of additional dead cap that DeSmith will cost them if they cannot find a home for him (without cap considerations), and Montreal gave up nearly 2M in cap space for a 2nd two years from now (basically the equivalent of a current year 3rd), and a B or C type prospect in Legare. Lindstrom from Detroit is a fringe NHL defender.

The above is not bad business by any means, but it isn't the home run that some of the analysts made out Montreal's haul in the Karlsson trade to be. I assume that most people who were high on Montreal's return thought that Petry was worth way more than he ended up going for.
Forum: NHL TradesAug. 6, 2023 at 1:11 p.m.
Thread: (PIT/MTL/SJS) - Granlund, Rutta, Petry, DeSmith, Légaré, 2024 1st (PIT), 2025 2nd (PIT) for Pitlick, Hoffman for Karlsson, Hamaliuk, 2026 3rd (SJS)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensonfire</b></div><div>1. San Jose Sharks traded:

2023 Norris Trophy Winner Erik Karlsson at 10 million x 4
ECHL Prospect Dillon Hamaliuk
San Jose's 2026 3rd round pick

for

Mike Hoffman
Mikael Granlund
Jan Rutta
Pittsburgh's 2024 1st round pick with Top 10 Protection


This is awful for San Jose




2. Montreal traded:

Mike Hoffman
Rem Pitlick

for

Jeff Petry at 4.6875 million x 2
Casey DeSmith
AHL prospect Nathan Legare
Pittsburgh's 2025 2nd round pick


Montreal did good here.





3. Pittsburgh traded:

Mikael Granlund
Jeff Petry at 4.6875 million 2
Jan Rutta
Casey DeSmith
AHL Prospect Nathan Legare
Pittsburgh's 2024 1st round pick with Top 10 Protection
Pittsburgh's 2025 2nd round pick

for

2023 Norris Trophy Winner Erik Karlsson at 10 million x 4
Rem Pitlick
ECHL Prospect Dillon Hamaliuk
San Jose's 2026 3rd round pick


Pittsburgh did better than San Jose, but worse than Montreal.




In conclusion,

There is way too much value in this trade for Montreal and not enough for San Jose.

And Pittsburgh has about as much to lose in this trade as San Jose did when they acquired Karlsson 5 years ago.




The Montreal Canadiens win the trade.</div></div>

This is amazing work by San Jose.

People on a cap site should appreciate what Grier pulled off here.

He got a 1st round pick to dump one of the most difficult contracts in the league, and get almost entirely out of the final two years of it, when his team will be on the upswing. He should not have gotten a 1st round pick here.

Granlund and Rutta are also relatively cheap buyouts next year if they need further cap flexibility at the expense of pushing more cap to the third year.

You also have to frame all of the above with the high probability that Karlsson wanted out. Teams cannot hold on to players forever when that happens. For a rookie GM to pull off what he did is very impressive.
Forum: NHL TradesAug. 6, 2023 at 1:07 p.m.
Thread: (PIT/MTL/SJS) - Granlund, Rutta, Petry, DeSmith, Légaré, 2024 1st (PIT), 2025 2nd (PIT) for Pitlick, Hoffman for Karlsson, Hamaliuk, 2026 3rd (SJS)
San Jose easily wins this trade.

They got out of 87 percent of the Erik Karlsson contract 2 years earlier than they otherwise would have, and they were given a 1st round pick (for a 3rd) to do it. That's a massive win.

The contracts they took on are 1-2 years in length. They are currently rebuilding, so cap in 3 and 4 years from now is a lot more valuable to them than cap this year and next year. 3 years from now is when they should be thinking of acquiring big pieces via trade or free agency to push the rebuild forward. Without cap space, they cannot do that.

They had zero leverage because Karlsson was disgruntled and did not want to be there. They did not want him there. This isn't NHL 13 on the Xbox 360. We see this all the time where people online say "OH WE DON'T HAVE TO TRADE HIM IF WE DON'T WANT TO", and then the player gets traded right before training camp or at the trade deadline for less than expected. The reason is, teams cannot hold on to disgruntled players without it hurting the organization by creating a toxic atmosphere. Not to mention, there are only so many agents and agencies in the hockey world. How a team conducts their relationship with one player can damage their ability to maintain and build relationships in the future with different players. Again, this isn't a video game. There is more to consider. Similar to when Ottawa moved Karlsson on the first day of training camp, it was pretty obvious that San Jose was going to move him before the season opened. They were pushing for any ounce of leverage they had. Only retaining 1.5M was likely the consolation they got from all that pushing.

For Pittsburgh, this is a good fit. If Karlsson sucks in a year or two, their entire core is declining anyways. They have a lot less to lose by keeping him around. It wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't play out his entire contract in Pittsburgh, and he ends up somewhere in the East like Ottawa, Montreal, New York, etc. If it were up to his family, they would live in Ottawa full-time. Pittsburgh is a team on the decline. If they trade Karlsson, it is because they decided to start a rebuild. With less term on Karlsson's deal at that point, unlike San Jose, they might be in a position to retain the full 50 percent. If Karlsson remains even remotely good, I could see Pittsburgh getting that 1st round pick back 2 years from now.

I don't like the trade for Montreal. I think they should have gotten more for facilitating this. Maybe I am undervaluing what Petry brings at his retained cap hit.
Forum: NHL TradesAug. 6, 2023 at 12:54 p.m.
Thread: (PIT/MTL/SJS) - Granlund, Rutta, Petry, DeSmith, Légaré, 2024 1st (PIT), 2025 2nd (PIT) for Pitlick, Hoffman for Karlsson, Hamaliuk, 2026 3rd (SJS)
So a lot of moving parts here in organizations I'm less familiar with, so trying to see if I follow.

So Montreal essentially got
DeSmith (solid but not special backup). Likely quite low but positive value
What appears like a nothing prospect in legare?
And a 2025 second
Got to dump one year of Hoffman (pp specialist with skill there but otherwise pretty crappy)

In exchange for trading a depth piece with low value (Pitlick) and taking back a bad contract but retained in Petry, but 2 years vs Hoffman's 1 year

Pitts
Good:
Traded/dumped ruuta (neutral to mildly bad value)
Traded/dumped Granlund. Value controversial as his offense isn't bad, but analytics people think he's just awful. 2 years
Got a nothing prospect
Got a third
Got the mildly retained super star!!! (Karlsson)
Got a decent depth player (Pitlick)
Got out of most of Petry for 2 years

Paid:
2024 protected first
2025 second
Retention on Petry for two years
A solid backup but minimal value as they had 3 goalies

Sneaky bad:
By trading bad contracts instead of having sj retain more they will have Karlsson at 9.5 in years 3 and 4 when he's likely to be at his worst

San Jose
Cost
Paid karlsson
Retention on Karlsson (low but 4 years)
Took three dumps (ruuta and Granlund 2 years, Hoffman one).
A 3rd

Got:
A protected first
Got out of the majority of karlsson's contract

I think this is overall LIKELY* fair and people were way over valuing Karlsson/underappreciating the issues of trading his contract when they were discussing the returns he'd get

I think the clincher here if it was fair for everyone or if Montreal rocked it is what one thinks of Petry. He was a great defenseman a couple years ago. I haven't watched him much recently but he certainly has taken a lot of hate. So if he does truly suck it's fair. If he's still an okay second pair defenseman they did quite well