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MountRoyal

Flood Geologist
Member Since
May 30, 2016
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Montreal Canadiens
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Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 17, 2023 at 10:18 p.m.
Thread: Campbell for Anderson
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GeneralLandro</b></div><div>I think 1 for 1 is super interesting for both teams honestly</div></div>

Edmonton has a reason to consider it. Montreal does not.
They don't need to move a contract (especially not if they are taking one back), they don't need a goaltender, they aren't contending.
Even if Anderson never scores another goal they have no impending cause to dump him. They'll overpay for an extra player with some usefulness until his contract expires or it becomes necessary to move him.
Everyone considering Anderson as a cap dump is ignoring the simple fact that Montreal does not need to dump cap. They are in good shape for at least a couple more years and have money coming off the books naturally during that time.
Forum: NHL SigningsDec. 1, 2023 at 12:52 p.m.
Thread: Montreal Canadiens signed Samuel Montembeault (3 Years / $3,150,000 AAV)
I've been tracking goalie contracts and deployment for a few years now.

For 2023 the Avg Cap Hit per Start = $88,758

For reference, I have found a range like this seems to hold fairly true for deployment (major injuries aside):
<strong>Workhorse Goalie</strong> = 59-72 starts (80% start rate or 4 out of 5 games)
<strong>1A</strong> = 47-58 starts (65% start rate or 2 out of 3 games)
<strong>Tandem</strong> = 36-46 starts (50% start rate; every other or "hot hand" rotation that evens out)
<strong>1B</strong> = 24-35 starts (35% start rate or 1 out of 3 games)
<strong>Backup</strong> = 10-23 starts (20% start rate or 1 out of 5 games)
<strong>Spot Duty/Call-up</strong> = 1-9 starts (injury fill-in from AHL, rookies on ELC slide, or the "old school" backup that only played in B2B games)

Cap inflation next year is expected to be around 5%; thus projecting a $93,542 figure (the actual will be less since many AAV's carryover; but the UFA/RFA's are unkown)

This means the $3,150,000 contract is roughly "average price" for 34 starts per year; thus an above average 1B goalie.

Another way of looking at is the Habs committed 41% of an average team's goalie budget to Montembeault.

In that sense this seems perfectly fine. The question for Montreal (a team coming off one of the most expensive goalie contracts ever) is are they trying to lowball the position (Avs, Kings, Coyotes) due to lots of pending RFA deals; or do they see someone else as their 1A long term (Primeau, Fowler ?).

The good thing about this deal is they have flexibility either way (and with lack of NMC/NTC).