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OilersFan77

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Jan. 19, 2018
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Edmonton Oilers
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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 4, 2019 at 3:31 p.m.
Thread: TDL Trades with explanations CGY COL MTL VAN NSH TB BOS
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RWellington</b></div><div>I think they all make sense, perhaps the return isnt right on but there is logic behind each deal. Also Edmonton needs to free up cap space which would work against them so it probably lessens there returns but i did not factor that into the deals. As far as the 3rd round picks go teams seem more than willing to trade them, in fact recent Oil history 3rd round for Marody, 3rd+ for Petrovic &amp; Davidson to NYI for 3rd round pick</div></div>

Marody is decent prospect, Davidson is a very useful bottom pairing D-man, and Petrovic has always been held in high regard but simply hasn't showed that in Edmonton yet. Teams will pay a third for what they really need, my point is that in these trades that motivation doesn't seem to be there. Like I said, they're not terrible but just a bit unrealistic.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 1, 2019 at 11:09 p.m.
Thread: Doing whats best for the team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>Our defence has been fine all year, it’s our offence that is sputtering, but I’m about as concerned with that as I am with salty oilers fans comments...</div></div>

lol well you should be, the Oilers and Leafs have the same problems. The Leafs just have more depth up front which masks the problem better. Hockey is a transition game, you can't transition well against good defensive teams without good defence. The reason you guys are struggling up front is because nothing is happening on the backend and as teams tighten up the forwards have less room to make the transition for the d-men.

Tampa is good because they have a strong and deep backend who can transition the puck to some very strong talent up front. Chicago had a great transition game which is why they won cups, they've simply lost it as Hjalmarsson is in Arizona and their top pairing left their prime. You guys have one decent pairing like we do, we were winning until the better half of that pairing got hurt. We have the best player in the world and nobody to get him the puck, our transition game is terrible and we don't have Freddy in net to bail us out all the time. You guys are just about to put the nail in the coffin by tying up all your cap in 4 guys whereas we, because we have a few promising D prospects on the cusp of NHL readiness, are about to finally be relevant. Leafs are the definition of a glass cannon and will be until they deepen the backend. No cups until that's done.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 1, 2019 at 10:43 p.m.
Thread: Doing whats best for the team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>Chicago and Pittsburgh both made it work. Most teams that win the cup do it with star power backed up with cheaper talent. Leafs have the stars and they have the cheaper players to surround them with so everyone can be successful. Just need smart asset management. Chicago and Pittsburgh were both power houses for a long time, Pittsburgh could still win a cup this year. When you have a player like Crosby anything is possible.</div></div>

Yeah... Chicago totally made it work. Where are they in the standings again? They made it work until they had to put 21m in two players. The leafs are about to have 30m+ in three and none of those three are a d-man. Reilly is good n all but he's no Victor Hedman when it comes to actually playing defence. They have no depth on the backend which is why they always sputter down the stretch and fizzle out in the playoffs. Teams tighten up the backend as the season goes on and it becomes very hard to out-score your problems. Doesn't help that they've got 7m tied up in Nylander who brings that number to 37m-ish in 4 forwards. Someone is getting traded or offer sheeted. There was a report today that multiple teams are monitoring the situation and considering an offer sheet. They don't happen often, but when they do it's usually because the team really doesn't think it'll get matched and it's at a price they can handle. A few teams would give Marner 10m on an 7 year deal and the Leafs would only be able to match it because of the 10% over-cap spending allowed during the offseason. Gardiner is gone which means even less depth on the backend, but hey, maybe they can teach JT to play defence lolol
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 1, 2019 at 8:53 p.m.
Thread: 5 Years for Matthews 6 for Marner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BCAPP</b></div><div>RFA vs UFA. Center vs winger. No RFA winger this CBA has gotten over 9.5 million. No non-arbitration eligible RFA winger this CBA has gotten over 7.5 million. The only RFA winger to get over either of those totals with a salary cap in existence was Ovechkin and he is in his own league.</div></div>

How many Marner calibre wingers, who is a natural centre, have been signed this CBA? I can only think of a couple. Kucherov, who is a huge beauty for taking an extremely team friendly deal (Marner might do this but unlikely given his camps statements regarding Matthews). Pastrnak is the other who took what he did largely because of a lower team precedent, he didn't want to take much more because his linemate had recently taken a deal for less and didn't want to seem like a douche. Team situation and team precedents are far more important than other comparisons, Marners only comparables right now are Nylander and JT, one is almost a 7m player who's doing nothing and the other is a new guy making 11m and barely doing more than him. Marner will get between 9m and 10m as is only fair. Either from the Leafs or from an offer sheet which is a reality. There was a report today that teams are preparing to offer sheet Marner. Perhaps that's unfounded, but if I'm a GM looking for a franchise player then I'm looking at Marner. Times have changed and the Leafs, barring a miracle, are going to feel the hurt come this offseason.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31, 2019 at 3:41 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31, 2019 at 3:20 p.m.
Thread: 5 Years for Matthews 6 for Marner
Sorry Leafs fans, if you think you're getting Marner on a deal worth less than 10m you're dreaming. The JT signing really screwed you guys in terms of team precedent. Unless Marner and/or Matthews (ha) are massively ftb then they're both getting over 10m. In terms of total points per 60, Matthews has 3.15, JT has 3.13, and Marner has 3.1. The drop off after that is quite big with Johnsson (2.33) and Kapanen (2.14) being the next two on the list. With that in mind, JT becomes a middle ground between Matthews and Marner where Matthews gets a shade more than JT and Marner gets a shade less than JT. Like I said, maybe Marner is a huge beauty who will take a discount but even then he's easily a 9m player (especially if Nylander is nearly a 7m player).

I get that the point is fewer years = less money now, but even so I just can't see how you get Matthews on a deal for less than 10m or Marner for anything below 9m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31, 2019 at 11:23 a.m.
Thread: Rebuild
You're overvaluing Talbot and to a team that doesn't need a goalie. That Colorado trade makes no sense as it's more and more likely that Sekera will never play at the NHL level again and if he does not well. A 3rd rounder probably won't land you Lindberg and Vegas probably won't give him up anyway, at least not until they're healthy. There's a reason Fucale isn't the NHL, we'll leave it at that. The SJ trade seems one-sided for the Sharks, but they still wouldn't do it, they're a contender with a shrinking window, they aren't going to be trading roster players for futures at this point. Especially if that trade involves inferior roster players with big contracts that will all but close their window. It's a one-sided trade for the Sharks if the Sharks are rebuilders, but they're certainly not. If we are rebuilders, then why are we trading our first rounder, a still promising young winger, and 3 3rd rounders anyway? Oh, Russell is not worth a 2nd rounder. He's paid like a 3-4 guy but is struggling in that capacity. Perhaps, he's worth a 2nd rounder in better times but not right now, you'd have to retain salary to make it work for a contender too which isn't ideal.

This team is a bubble team, it needs to be added to, not torn apart. To tear it apart now would be foolish, Yamo and Benson are close which means we might get the forward depth we desperately need from within if we can't make anything meaningful happen at the deadline or offseason. Jones and Bear are close as well which means we may also shore up the d-group from within soon. Take a deep breath and believe in them for the time being, McDavid was clearly right when he said that only the guys in the room believe. We fans should get on their side, they're our team and it's our job to believe in them and support them no matter what. I always want them to improve, but I also know I owe it to those guys to believe as long as they do. We're only 3 out of the playoffs, it can be done.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 25, 2019 at 12:41 a.m.
Thread: How To Fix The Oilers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Other franchises have been able to find and develop many players outside of the 1st round. Look at TO's draft record over the past 6 seasons and you'll see 2nd round picks and even 7th round picks playing in the NHL or doing very well in the minors where their farm team is the defending champions. Edmonton does not have that success, and Chiarelli didn't help at all.</div></div>

Some teams get lucky, anyone in TO, including their management, will tell you that their rebuild happened way faster than they expected. Some prospects transition better to the NHL than others. Sometimes others take longer but are worth the wait. Remember that these kids are 18 and 19, they can be unpredictable as it's hard for even the most mature ones to handle the huge increase in pressure. Some need more time just to learn to play at a faster pace. It's also worth mentioning that guys like Brown in TO, while being a 6th round pick, took 4 years to crack the Leafs roster. Many later Oiler picks appear to be on a similar trajectory. Chia gave the Oilers a plethora of prospects who show a whole lot of promise, some are close and others are further but even having this conversation is a huge positive. The Condors are full of guys who could break out in the NHL, whereas prior to Chia the Condors/Barons were a club of career AHLers. You simply can't judge the long-term success of a GM's drafting after 3 years. It's only now when you'd expect the guys he picked in 2015 to be nearing full time NHL status and they are (Bear and Jones). Don't let his horrendous trade record and terrible asset management blind you from the one bright spot in it all :)
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 24, 2019 at 3:29 p.m.
Thread: How To Fix The Oilers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Bouchard is the only player listed that is actually a top level prospect. The rest you may get a decent depth player or two. The oilers also have a long track record of doing almost nothing for player development. Draft, don't develop and then have no depth. That is what Edmonton has done.</div></div>

The Oilers have a long track record, but Chia didn't. The farm system is doing quite well now. And you really think Yamo and Pulju will only amount to depth players? You're being a little bit too cynical my friend. Prospect development, especially for ones taken past the first round, take time. Let them take it. The oldest player that Chia drafted is 22, give it some time. I'd also recommending checking out Chia's college signings, Bakersfield has lots of promising talent. The pipeline is better than it's been in a very long time, you have to give credit where credit is due, Chia is a good drafter even if it's Gretzky doing most of the scouting.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 24, 2019 at 1:41 p.m.
Thread: How To Fix The Oilers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Edmonton hasn't seen a player drafted beyond the 1st round make a meaningful impact since Klefbom was drafted in 2011. Edmonton is not fine at drafting, they did well in the last draft but they do not have many high end draft picks knocking on the doors. They have massive holes in their depth and no one to fill them. Hire Hunter and watch him actually draft well.</div></div>

Klefbom was drafted in the 1st round. And na, the drafts Chia was here for turned out quite well for the Oilers. 2015: McDavid (not giving credit for that one obviously lol), Jones, Bear - 2016: Puljujarvi, Benson, Niemalainen, Wells - 2017: Yamo, Skinner, Samorukov, Safin, Maksimov - 2018: Bouchard, Mcleod, Rodrigue. I only included players who have either played in the NHL, have taken a big step since their draft year (i.e. Maksimov going from 22 points in his draft year to 80 the next), or are simply considered promising prospects by those more familiar with them than I.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 24, 2019 at 1:29 p.m.
Thread: How To Fix The Oilers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>buds16</b></div><div>Drafting is almost as bad as the trades he made. The oilers only have 4 guys drafted outside of the the 1st round since 2013(i don't have the stomach to go back further) to even play a game in the NHL and none of those have ever come close to a full season.

This is by far the biggest joke of a management team there ever was and T.Gretzky and his scouting team is a huge reason for such failures. Every single person in that organization needs to go.</div></div>

Chia was only here for 3 years, considering that it's probably a positive that most of the guys he's drafted haven't made the team yet. We've gotta develop those later picks. He picked Jones and Bear in the 4th and 5th rounds. He picked Samorukov in the 3rd rnd of 2017 who was an absolute all star at the WJ's. He picked Ryan Mcleod in the 2nd round last year who is promising. He filled the goalie pipeline with promising talent like Stuart Skinner, Shane Starrett, and Dylan Wells. He picked Safin in the 4th round of 17' who is also a reasonably promising guy for the draft position. Benson seems close based on his play this year. You guys need to check the drafts Chia was actually there for, he did very well. He and Keith Gretzky did a great job drafting in Boston too, picking a star like Pastrnak at 25th, Ryan Donato at 56th, Danton Heinen at 116th and so on. That was just the 2014 draft too! We are great at drafting now, I'd even hire Chia as my head amateur scout. It's the pro scouts who need to be all fired and the new GM needs to list asset management as his main skill.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 24, 2019 at 12:19 p.m.
Thread: Draisaitl for Giroux
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dmh1055</b></div><div>The Oilers would be dumb to do this trade. The Flyers should be trying to make a deal like this. You say the Flyers have depth but they do not. They're missing a 2nd line center. The bottom 6 isn't very good. There's talent that's not producing so it's likely just a bad mix. The 4th line is a real mess. They're a relatively easy team to match up on and take away skill players. The defense has too many young players on it and they played 7 goalies this year due to injuries. They're not as bad as their record is but they were only playoff bubble team as constructed.</div></div>

Any Oiler fan would be more than happy to add Voracek, Simmonds, Giroux, van Reimsdyk, or Couturier. Not to mention Patrick, who I admit I haven't watched, but is certainly a promising player. You can fix a 4th line easily enough. Fixing a second line is far harder and that's what we in Edmonton desperately need to do. You're probably right that the young d-core, while filled with promise, is struggling with inexperience. Goaltending has been a problem for years, I hope our Edmonton boy Hart can succeed. The Flyers have far more depth at forward than most teams, you're certainly right when you day it's a likely just a bad mix. They probably could use a shakeup.

Edmonton needs to find a way to add a true 2W with limited assets that we can afford to give up. Due to that we have to be sure, we can't afford to overpay.