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Playersoverpayed

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Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 15, 2022 at 1:48 p.m.
Thread: 2022 Predictions - Past Trends over Rankings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TZ11</b></div><div>"Ivan is a top-5, maybe top-3 player in this draft at full strength."

No, he isn't. He started falling before his cancer diagnosis, he should be in the 18-25 range when healthy.</div></div>

This is a tricky one. I had heard from a friend in the industry he starting having health issues well in advance, then ultimately the diagnosis, and unclear what was causing his pre-diagnosis drop. I'm sure GMs have / are vetting what exactly was going on there, but I just don't know enough. So absolutely, my statement is giving him a very sizeable benefit of doubt on why he declined. Could be wrong and may be non-illness related play drop in which case you're right. Glad I'm not the GM who has to evaluate this situation, it sucks all around and I'd hate to be making a decision on whether a kid got worse or if a kid was genuinely sick, it sucks.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 6, 2022 at 6:14 p.m.
Thread: Boston Bruins Draft Board
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Playersoverpayed</b></div><div>Sadly I think Hughes, Bystedt and Beck will all be gone before no. 54. All three did well (or even excellent) at the NHL Combine fitness testing. I also doubt Sykora and Warren would be available in 4th round, but you never know.

Of the players you mentioned, Ingram could be available at no. 54 and vice versa Thornton should be available at no. 91. In fact plenty of smaller LDs will be available in 3rd and 4th round.

For Buchelnikov I have smaller red flag here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-1l54WE5KQ This was his last game of the season. At 1:16:40 (after the clip you might like/hate his opponent Yevseyev, another 2022 draft prospect) is a contact that caused his injury. It happens, but from 2:03:12 to 2:03:18 there is a short clip of Buchelnikov off the ice. It wasn't that bad, nothing was broken, but anyway he didn't play again in the playoffs. His team won that series from deficit and won in finale against CSKA's youth affiliate, Krasnaya Armiya.
For me that is a red flag. He is fragile, despite huge offensive potential. I would not touch him before 5th round.</div></div>

He’s also light. Once he bulks up (which he’ll have to do to play effectively in North America) he’ll be less “fragile”. That’s a fairly commonplace thing in lighter prospects.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 3, 2022 at 9:16 a.m.
Thread: 2022 Predictions
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Playersoverpayed</b></div><div>That's very realistic draft.
Often D-men are taken earlier than expected and usually small forwards fall a few spots lower than fans expect. I personally would be very surprised if Korchinski would be available at no. 30 (especially with Seattle going into WHL finale), but every draft there are a few risers and fallers.</div></div>

Thanks! Agree that was the general theme. There's a whole host of good defensemen that fit a Top-4 NHL mold who hover from 15-50 in most prospect rankings, and in some order or another, I bet most or all go top-25.

In addition to small forwards falling, there's a smaller theme behind players like Lekkerimaki who are less reliable in the D-zone falling, while guys like Kasper who play a 200-ft game are valued more highly.
Forum: Mock-DraftMay 30, 2022 at 9:32 a.m.
Thread: Draft Question
If I'm Montreal I don't know if I like the Östlund/Nelson combo over the possible Gaucher/Chesley one, less flamboyant but Gaucher is cookie cutted to be a 3C and Chesley a steady top four blueliner. Comes down to the risk you,re willing to take I guess. Also it's highly improbable Pickering falls to the second, the guy is raw but has some legit upside to be the best defender in this draft.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Playersoverpayed</b></div><div>The draft will take place in Montreal. I can imagine with their late 1st round pick and pick no. 33 (1st pick of 2nd round) Habs would select two francophone players to pump up the crowd. Luneau and Gaucher are two candidates, Dumais (or possibly Lamoureux) might be 3rd in line if one of them is not available. I would imagine at least one of Luneau/Gaucher should be available, maybe even both.</div></div>
Worked so good last time when we ended up taking Leblanc over Kreider .... Timmins actually made an interview and straight up said the management told him he wasn't forced to take a Quebec born player but that he should stop looking at the high-school prep guy (Obviously Kreider).
Forum: Mock-DraftMay 20, 2022 at 4:04 p.m.
Thread: Refining my Rankings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Playersoverpayed</b></div><div>That's a big drop for Savoie in roughly 24 hours. What a difference one day makes! :) "This is an easier pick than some people on this site think. The Flyers this year did NOT have Ryan Ellis. ... Savoie has a bit of Giroux in his game when it comes to the playmaking. A bit undersized at 5'8'', but Savoie is a complete playmaking and can score you a lot of goals."

You're not listening to us, but you do listen to Eliteprospects ;) That's fine, they do a lot of things right, for example they correctly have Trikozov ahead of Yurov. Your new positions of Nazar, Yurov, Trikozov, Mateychuk etc. look a lot as their yesterday's release ;) Come on, it's not wrong to have your own opinion. If you like Savoie, you like him, there is nothing wrong with that.</div></div>

EDIT: What you are saying is true. That's a thing I often do, I often think that I should copy other people's opinion. I am gonna be releasing another draft rankings with the full explanations and Savoie will be much higher. At the same time I see a lot of people on this site having Savoie near this range though.

Thanks for the input.
Forum: Mock-DraftMay 17, 2022 at 8:54 a.m.
Thread: Mock Draft with small explanations
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Playersoverpayed</b></div><div>I think Savoie will be selected around no. 10 spot, possibly even lower. Offense is his main weapon, but look at Winnipeg Ice's playoffs stats: Benson (2023 eligabile) 10 GP, 18P. Milne 10GP, 15P. McClennon and Pederson each 10 GP, 14P. Finley and Zloty each 10GP, 11P. Then there comes Savoie with 8GP, 10P, Geekie is next with 10GP, 9P. Savoie is not offensively carrying the team and I doubt he is shut-down forward.
So, I think Savoie will be selected at no. 10 or lower. Geekie is harder to predict, somebody will probably reach for him for his size alone. Despite you can get similar caliber lower (at least Gaucher, maybe also Bystedt, it depends on GM's criteria).</div></div>

I'm in this exact same boat. I think he's probably one of the most skilled players in the draft, but I can absolutely see him as a guy that falls a bit. As a Ducks fan, I'd love to get him at 10 OA, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's a number of GM's that give him the Caufield treatment, mainly due to his size.
Forum: Mock-DraftMay 16, 2022 at 1:59 a.m.
Thread: My updated Tier List
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Playersoverpayed</b></div><div>For the most part it looks fine to me. I would probably switch Yurov and Lambert. I am also higher on Trikozov.

Yurov is being rushed into KHL. He is good skater but also not very creative player. His MHL offensive numbers are strong, but he is also on a strong team. Combine that with Russian factor and you get a late 1st round pick.
I would select Trikozov ahead of Yurov. He is smart and can carry the team if he needs to ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnAe-kzuIxo ... playoff game, Trikozov's team is behind 1:3, at 2:15:00 his goal for 2:3, at 2:20:45 I really recommend you to check his solo effort for 3:3. If I remember correct he did it in similar fashion one more time in 21/22 playoffs. Less flashy here, his equalizer for 4:4 with their empty-net in series-deciding game at 2:34:30: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MVuZl9sYvU ... check also at 3:49:20. Not Trikozov, but I strongly recommend you to take a look on zone entrance for series-deciding, slow-mo begins at 3:51:10. I don't remember to see it before). Smaller problem is Trikozov is younger prospect and therefore kind of by default at least 3 years away from NHL.

Lambert is similar story as Yurov, but he might be overall the best skater of the class. He is fast and can change directions in a moment. His mechanics are so superior that can move him a tier higher. If speaking about mock draft, I can totally see Yzerman pick him and develop him as he did with Seider. Other GM candidates for Lambert are Kekalainen with his 12th, Lamoriello with his 13th and Adams with his 15th.</div></div>

Yurov is higher than Lambert because ideally he was more consistent. It may not look like it, and yes there's the Russian factor, but I feel like Yurov was rushed into the KHL. Its hard to put up tons of points when you're playing 5 minutes per game in the KHL.

Lambert has the skill and ability to be ahead of Yurov, but really he only tapped into that territory during the U20 tournament.

Overall, I do think while Yurov is ranked higher than Lambert, I do think Lambert will be drafted before Yurov. Maybe teams learned their lessons after Chinakov.