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Playersoverpayed

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Forum: NHL TradesAug. 18, 2022 at 5:59 p.m.
Thread: (CGY/MTL) - Monahan, conditional 2025 1st for future considerations
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Johnny_Canucks</b></div><div>What are the conditions?</div></div>

Here are the conditions associated with the first-round selection acquired by Montreal:

1. In the event Calgary's own 2024 first (1st) round choice is selection 20-32 (inclusive) (following the determination of the 2024 NHL Draft lottery results), then Montreal shall have the option, exercisable until 48 hours prior to the start of the 2024 NHL draft, to exchange the conditional 2025 or 2026 first round choice to become Calgary's own 2024 first (1st) round choice); or,

If Florida's 2025 First (1st) Round Choice Transfers to Calgary (pursuant to the conditions on an earlier trade)

2. In the event the conditions to trigger Montreal's option as noted in #1 above does not occur, or Montreal declines to exercise this option, the following conditions shall prevail:

A) If both Calgary's own 2025 first (1st) round choice and Florida's 2025 first (1st) round choice (previously acquired by Calgary) are not in the top-10 selections of the 2025 NHL Draft (following the determination of the 2025 NHL Draft lottery results), then Montreal shall receive the earlier of the two (2) stated choices; or,
B) If Calgary's own 2025 first (1st) round choice is a top-10 selection and Florida's 2025 first round selection (previously acquired by Calgary) is outside of the top-10 selections (following the determination of the 2025 NHL Draft lottery results), Montreal shall receive Florida's 2025 first (1st) round choice).
If Florida's 2025 First Round Choice DOES NOT Transfer to Calgary (pursuant to the conditions on an earlier trade)

3. In the event the conditions to trigger Montreal's option as noted in #1 above does not occur, or Montreal declines to exercise this option, the following conditions shall prevail:

A. If Calgary's own 2025 first (1st) round choice is not in the top-10 selections of the 2025 NHL Draft (following the determination of the 2025 NHL Draft lottery results), Montreal shall receive Calgary's own 2025 first (1st) round choice, and additionally,

1) If Florida's own 2025 first (1st) round choice is not in the top-10 selections of the 2025 NHL Draft (following the determination of the 2025 NHL Draft lottery results); and,
2) Florida's 2025 first (1st) round choice has been transferred to another NHL Club; and,
3) Florida's 2025 first round draft position is better than Calgary's 2025 first round draft position; then Calgary will transfer their own 2025 fourth round choice to Montreal.
B. If Calgary's own 2025 first (1st) round choice is a top-10 selection (following the determination of the 2025 NHL Draft lottery results), Montreal shall receive Calgary's 2025 first (1st) round choice, subject to the following condition below:

1) In the event Calgary's 2025 first (1st) round choice is the first (1st) selection overall in the 2025 NHL Draft (following the determination of the 2025 NHL Draft lottery results), Calgary will retain its own 2025 first (1st) round choice and Montreal shall instead receive Calgary's own 2025 third (3rd) round choice and a conditional 2026 first (1st) round choice. Montreal shall receive the better of Calgary's 2026 first (1st) round choice or Florida's 2026 first (1st) round choice (following the determination of the 2026 NHL Draft lottery results) (previously conditionally acquired by Calgary).
Forum: Mock-DraftJul. 29, 2022 at 7:40 p.m.
Thread: Subjective choice for a team with the best execution at the Draft: Dallas
I was kind of surprised that Dallas took Bischel, but I was really hoping the Canes would be able to land him. As a Canes fan, the Canes weren’t always a great drafting team (looking at you pick before EK65 and other screw ups). But ever since the ownership changed and Waddell was brought in as the GM, everything changed. Don’t get me wrong, Francis had a few really amazing picks, but he also had a few, not so stellar picks as well (Aho, Lindholm, Hanifin compared to picks like H. Fleury at 7OA (high potential but didn’t pan out), Bean at 13 (defensive pylon with not enough offense to out shine his deficiencies), J. Gauthier at 21 (like the player but didn’t pan out). The Canes for a long time have had an excellent farm system, and are one of the league’s best at developing. So it really doesn’t matter that much with bad picks if they can be developed better. So, Canes fans are extremely excited for Morrow, Trikozov, Montgomery, and Blake.
Forum: Mock-DraftJul. 27, 2022 at 12:59 p.m.
Thread: Subjective choice for a team with the best execution at the Draft: Dallas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Playersoverpayed</b></div><div>So I would say if Dallas would want to win a Cup now, would they trade away their 2022 1st round pick (like some other teams) and possibly also their 2023 1st round pick. So far it look they are OK with mediocrity.</div></div>

I’d prefer what they are doing to gambling away firsts on players in the back half of their useful career (any UFA aged player imo) or rentals for what is still very long odds to win now with Benn and Seguin’s contracts holding them down. They’re good enough to sneak into playoffs right now get some revenue and keep their picks and hopefully hit a few home runs, just the four NHL players out of the 2017 draft and last year 2021 (with some high potential picks taken) is enough to convince me they should keep their picks. It would take a lot for this team to be bad enough to seriously contend for a lottery pick with as bad as other teams are right now so that not ideal either and would completely waste the early careers of the 2017 guys.

Call it mediocrity or call it keeping the business afloat by being a contender to make playoffs and get some postseason $$$, but I’d prefer that to selling the farm to be slightly better and it’s the closest thing to having your cake and eating it too if drafting good players and having a great season.
Forum: Mock-DraftJul. 23, 2022 at 4:20 p.m.
Thread: Subjective choice for a team with the best execution at the Draft: Dallas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Playersoverpayed</b></div><div>I would be surprised if nobody would mention that ;)

Players selected behind Bichsel were Ohgren, Miroshnichenko, Pickering, Gaucher, Snuggerud, Yurov, Rinzel, Mesar... I would also select Bichsel at no. 18.

One might say Miroshnichenko (or Yurov) has higher upside, but also much higher risk. Ohgren, Gaucher and Snuggerud are all safe picks with average upside.

If speaking about D-men, I am taking Bichsel in front of Pickering, Rinzel, Lamouroux and others. He is tested against men (including his hitting) and I like his Combine results. Pickering, Rinzel and Lamouroux each has their share of struggles in juniors. So it relatively easy pick for me. If I am on the clock, I also select Bichsel at no. 18.

It's the nature of the game, D-men are more important. Regular roster has 12F and 6D. D-men play more minutes and their mistakes are devastating. You can afford to play with a few suspicious forwards, but not with a suspicious D-men. That's why on the Draft day GMs prefer D-men in front of forwards of comparable value. Fans would also say Nemec (no. 2), Jiricek (no. 6), Korchinski (no. 7), Mintyukov (no. 10), Mateychuk (no.12), Pickering (no. 21), Rinzel (no. 25) and others are all reaches in front of some XYZ forwards. GMs would call it fair value, fans would call it reaches/overpayments. I am on the GMs side, playoffs history speaks you mostly win with defense and goaltending.</div></div>

There’s nothing terrible about the pick don’t get me wrong I just feel like this pick aims towards the future and Dallas is in win now mode. I think Bichsel is a great prospect but he’s not a full Klingberg replacement I think he could be that but I just don’t see it yet
Forum: Mock-DraftJul. 7, 2022 at 11:17 a.m.
Thread: Predictive Mock
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Playersoverpayed</b></div><div>You really don't need to apologize for anything. You don't own us anything.
All mocks are going to be wrong, beside the one with 225 correct picks ;) And cheese is also aged milk.

You've been more excited than me about the quality of the class. A few more teams are trying to trade their high 1st round pick, which for me is additional indication of worse quality. But at the end it doesn't matter. The point is to draft smart and for the most part to recognize BPA. Quality over quantity.
Predicting the mock, when the final draft order of the teams selecting high, adds to unpredictability.

My bold prediction is Savoie will fall out to range 10-15 and Lambert will be selected with no. 6 or no. 7, depends of the (potential) trades yet to be made and the new owners of the respective pick(s). Somebody will try to reach for him. He is very risky pick, but potential reward will attract some GMs. I also think Mintyukov and Korchinski could both be selected in top10, while I expect Yurov to still be available in the bottom third of the 1st round.</div></div>

I’m telling you, I’m getting strong 2015 vibes from this class’ strength, both at the top and depth wise. Maybe 2003-level class.

What helps is the question marks (OHL for example) in last years class being mostly Undrafted. Allows for a strong DY+1 class to pair with an already strong DY class.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 30, 2022 at 12:27 p.m.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 23, 2022 at 1:36 p.m.
Thread: Edmonton Oliers Draft Board
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Playersoverpayed</b></div><div>I agree, defense, defense, defense.

For overage goalie I have decent candidate (not in games that I watched, but it was too small sample size): Zakhar Vinogradov. He is 6ft2, plays in VHL, which is not well scouted. He will turn 20 in autumn and is under contract until 2023/24. He plays positional style, where reading the flow of the play has advantage before athleticism. As mentioned, he wasn't outstanding in games that I watched, just good enough to win. But VHL is league of grown men, nothing should be taken for granted. And his SV% shows he "must" be good. I think he wasn't selected last season, because VHL is not well scouted. Imagine, CAR selected in 7th round goalie from MHL who has also had small sample size (Naumov)... but that guy hasn't played a game this season. In fact he wasn't even good in his 9 games last season. If Vinogradov would be playing MHL or KHL, someone would notice him.</div></div>

Yeah I have Vinogradov ranked on my big board. He’s good, but there are many better options.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 21, 2022 at 1:09 p.m.
Thread: Columbus Blue Jackets Draft Guide
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Playersoverpayed</b></div><div>I forgot about Johnson, he is prospect. On the other hand, Sillinger, Chinakhov and Boqvist are young roster players. It might seem like a lot, but it's really not.

In non-covid years teams need around 30 players who are capable to play in NHL. Injuries are common. That would mean 20-25 older players and 5-10 prospects (who are capable to jump in). I would say on average team should raise 3 new roster players every year. Not necesserely top-6 Fs and top-4 D-men, that would be unreal, but at least players who can play at least 10 minutes per night on their own. After some age, let's say 30, number of players from draft class begin to quickly fall down. By the age of 35 usually there are way less than 10 players from draft class still active. So you can't count on players to play on average 10 seasons (that would be on average up to 820 GP). In fact, 10 seasons per player is rather exception than rule. But I will say franchise needs 30 players per season and (for easier calculation) they play 10 seasons on average. 30:10= 3. On average teams need 3 new faces every season. 2 is not much, 3 is enough. Because, to be fair, drafting is not the only way to get new people. There is also UFA signing, including NCAA and European players. But young players have another advantage, they are cheap (ELC) and waivers-exempt.

To say it differently, CBJ's problem is not bad scouting or development. CBJ is paying price for past effort to jump over first round in the playoffs. Look at 2019 draft, CBJ ended with 3 new prospects, none before 4th round. Over the past several years they have had below-average number of draft picks and below-average position of first selection in the draft. These things usually have to be paid in arrears. 2021 draft was good starting point for revitalization, but it takes more than that.</div></div>

appreciate the explanation!
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 15, 2022 at 1:48 p.m.
Thread: 2022 Predictions - Past Trends over Rankings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TZ11</b></div><div>"Ivan is a top-5, maybe top-3 player in this draft at full strength."

No, he isn't. He started falling before his cancer diagnosis, he should be in the 18-25 range when healthy.</div></div>

This is a tricky one. I had heard from a friend in the industry he starting having health issues well in advance, then ultimately the diagnosis, and unclear what was causing his pre-diagnosis drop. I'm sure GMs have / are vetting what exactly was going on there, but I just don't know enough. So absolutely, my statement is giving him a very sizeable benefit of doubt on why he declined. Could be wrong and may be non-illness related play drop in which case you're right. Glad I'm not the GM who has to evaluate this situation, it sucks all around and I'd hate to be making a decision on whether a kid got worse or if a kid was genuinely sick, it sucks.