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ShafferPens

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Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 28, 2018 at 1:02 p.m.
Thread: What is the value of Pageau?
<a href="/users/Pensfan89" target="_blank">@Pensfan89</a> <a href="/users/ShafferPens" target="_blank">@ShafferPens</a>

Conor Sheary is not better than Jean-Gabriel Pageau. Here is why:
In 2016-2017, Sheary was <strong>statistically dependent</strong> on Crosby to elevate his stats. The following graph breaks that down: <a href="http://www.hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1617/PIT/shearco92/wrap" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1617/PIT/shearco92/wrap</a>
In the above graph, you want to be as far right and up as possible. Notice the blue 87 box, all the way on the left. Yup, when Sheary didn't have Crosby he had a score-adjusted shots for of around 52 while having a score-adjusted shots against of around 59. Thats -7 in score adjusted shots for <strong>without Crosby</strong>.

In that same figure, take note of the black 87 box. That was where Sheary was with Crosby. Approximately 66 score-adjusted shots for vs. 57 score adjusted shots against. Around a +9 differential. Now look at Crosby without Sheary, which is represented by the red 87 box. The score-adjusted shots against are around the same, but Crosby had around 6 more score-adjusted shots for without Sheary.

To summarize, when Sheary was without Crosby, he had more shots happen against than for. When Crosby was without Sheary, he had around the same shots against, but more shots for. This means that Sheary feasted on Crosby's elite play driving ability and in doing so, held him back when he played with him.

Fast forward to present day: Sheary is playing on different lines. And guess what: he isn't producing nearly the same with Crosby. To give a reference point, here was his production in '16-'17 vs. '17-'18:

2016-2017: 0.868 PPG. Mike Hoffman that year was at 0.824 PPG with a center in Jean-Gabriel Pageau (5v5 only) --&gt; 333 minutes
2017-2018: 0.372 PPG. Matt Calvert this year has 0.405 PPG.

So what does this mean? Exactly this: <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ShafferPens</b></div><div>Sheary stats are inflated by Crosby.</div></div>

<a href="/users/Moller" target="_blank">@Moller</a> brings up a great point: if you were in the OTT position, would you make this trade? My answer: a swift no.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 27, 2018 at 9:46 p.m.
Thread: Fair return for Pacioretty should look like this ffs...
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ShafferPens</b></div><div>Pacioretty can't return Kyle Turris 1 for 1. Duchene returned Turris+++</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ricochetii</b></div><div>Duchene has a single 30 goal season.
Pacioretty has 4 consecutive.
They have the exact same .72 p/g pace for their careers, but goals are worth more.
Same term, but Pacioretty's contract is better value.

Center I'll give you, but the age difference isn't a factor. Neither player is going to be old and gray in a year and a half, and Pacioretty is only about 2 years older to begin with. They were only drafted 2 years apart, so it's ridiculous to consider that. How about Pacioretty has 2 more years of experience?

Bottom line, Pacioretty is more valuable than Duchene right now.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Billy739</b></div><div>if you think they are laughing you should hear us in MTL

30 goal scorer's rarely hit the UFA market and when they do even Kozlov who never had 30 goals after being traded at age 28 he was traded for Dominik Hasek in his Prime .
think about that a minute , really let it sink in then throw all your bias's about Patches out the door .

pretending he wont get top quality return is like saying Marchand is nothing more then a pest and has little value when in reality we both know thats a half truth as Marchand would command a high yield .
(as long as you dont let Sweeney pull the trigger that is his deals are horrible )</div></div>

By this logic Ovechkin will fetch us matthews or McDavid. Proven 50-60 goal scorer. Those never go on the market. The guy is averaging more goals per game than 99. Haha
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 27, 2018 at 7:18 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 27, 2018 at 7:24 p.m.