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Jun 26, 2017
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>Thanks as usual for the usual rational input. My thinking here is that:
(1) like the dog chasing the cat, the dog would LIKE to catch the cat but the feline NEEDS to get away. Similarly, Minnesota has the twin incentives of needing to improve at the center position and (arguably) needing to move Dumba in order to guarantee retaining Greenway, who looks to me like he is having the long-hoped-for breakout year, and one of Foligno or Hartman, while Arizona would have to be persuaded to part with their current #1 center.
(2) Arizona moves into the Central Division with Minnesota next season, so an intra-division trade is always difficult. Once again, because Minnesota benefits more from having a player who solidifies their center position for FIVE more years whereas Arizona benefits from filling one of their three holes at RD and empty protection slot (i.e., lesser benefits), I think that the Wild ought to pay the premium. Now you can quite sensibly argue that I should include the Columbus second even without Boldy, but I think that Dumba and the first is what would be required as a framework for a trade with the Coyotes.
(3) Schmaltz has 86 points in 131 games with Arizona (almost 0.66 ppg), and 27 points this year. I think that with Kaprizov and Fiala as his wingmen, he'd do better. In contrast, your four centers have 20 (Eriksson Ek), 16 (Rask) and 14 points (Bonino), while Johansson has 11 points in 24 games, which works out to 21 points over the 3/4 of the season we've played so far. So aside from the purported difference in value between centers and defensemen, Schmaltz is better than what you've got now and, again, is signed for five more years, whereas MoJo and Bonino expire this year and Rask the year after. As Rossi and Khusnutdinov develop, he can still be a useful center right through his entire contract. So I don't think that this exchange is that far off the mark.
If Guerin is able to persuade Armstrong to do Dumba for Schmaltz straight up, I think that would be a huge win for Minnesota. But you know that I'm rooting for you.</div></div>
I definitely agree with you, Schmaltz could be huge with Fiala and/or Kaprizov. He plays a fast game and I think he'd mesh very well with those two. As others have implied, Arizona doesn't really have a rush to move him, so we'd likely have to overpay to get him. It would sting but I'd rather just expose Dumba in expansion and if Seattle takes him, we free up a ton of cap; if they opt for one of our goalies, our incredible blue line is still in tact. I guess I'm looking at it this way: Dumba for $6M cap space to possibly sign or trade for a better C than Schmaltz or overpaying with Dumba, a 1st and a 3rd for Schmaltz.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockyluv21</b></div><div>I disagree. Seattle likely takes Dumba in the expansion draft. Manson, IMO, is his replacement.</div></div>
I'm going to disagree with the other Wild fans here and say I'm fine with Guerin exposing Dumba. It really would sting if we lost him, he's huge in our locker room and a very good player that I think gets unfair flak at the national level, but losing him means we free up $6M in cap space for the next two years which we'll need for Fiala, Kaprizov, Ek, Greenway, Hartman, and possibly an upgrade at center.
All that being said, adding Manson makes little sense. Even without Dumba, our blue line is still really good. Brodin and Spurgeon are both very much top pairing players, Suter has slowed a bit but he's still good #3. Last spot would likely be a revolving door of Addison, Soucy, and maybe Cole if we re-sign him. The hope is that Addison can grow into that role full time and from what we've seen he looks capable of doing that. I just don't think it would be smart to use picks/prospects on a spot that's not really a need when we have probably the worst center core in the entire NHL.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wildwinswhen</b></div><div>I agree with virtually everything futurehofer said here.
I don't expect anyone will waive their NMCs. Parise and Suter have no reason to. Zuccarello specifically negotiated it into his contract knowing this was coming. Spurgeon and Brodin would never get asked to waive. So that means we're protecting the 5 of them regardless of what we do.
My guess is that the Wild will go 4-4-1 because Dumba for "nothing" would really hurt. In that case we can only protect two forwards. With KK being exempt the next best two players are Fiala and Ek and it's not even close.
If we protect Dumba from the draft, I wouldn't follow up and trade him. We're not going to be able to trade for a C1. There's just no way anyone will make a deal with us. And the Wild have no other needs (which feels really weird to say, but it's true).
So I think it's stay the course, try for aC2 free agent and hope that Rossi and Boldy come through.</div></div>
The reason they might waive (in theory) is that they should want to win a cup. If they're exposed, Ron Francis should be fired immediately if he took one of Parise or Suter's contracts. Parise in particular has said he wants to win a cup, and it's hard to do that if you expose two young, talented players in Greenway or Ek who would definitely be taken by Seattle. And it's not Dumba for nothing, $6M is a ton of cap space (especially in a flat cap world) and that itself is an asset. I also disagree that Dumba is our ticket to a #1 center. He's a fine player, but I think GM's undervalue him relative to what us fans and Guerin thinks of him. If you have a subscription, check out Russo's article where he asks executives about fan proposals. The exectuvie implies that Dumba does not have a lot of value among GM's and Guerin isn't going to get what he's asking for, but also implies that he's still a great player. Our main assets are our prospects but I wouldn't be comfortable giving a lot of them up unless it's for someone like Eichel. If nobody wants to make a deal, then so be it. Continue to draft and develop. #1 centers hardly ever get traded, you have to build through the draft and that's what Guerin has been doing so far.
Let me preface this by saying I don't want to lose Dumba, he's a great player and probably a fringe #2/solid #3 on most teams, but I think there's a good chance we expose him. We're going to lose a good play no matter what, but if we lost Dumba we still have Brodin and Spurgeon (who are both top pairing D) along with Suter (who is showing his age but still a good top 4 D). Add in Addison, who should be a top 4 player at worst, and you still have a great top 4. If Seattle ends up taking Dumba, as <a href="/users/futurehofer" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@futurehofer</a> mentioned, that's $6M off the books that we can use to pay Boldy, Rossi, and Addison down the road. If they don't take Dumba, you still have your top 5-10 defense in tact. It's really a win-win situation in my opinion, as much as I hate the idea of losing Dumba.
Guerin told Greenway (paraphrasing) that he needs to be more professional and shift his focus to hockey and Greenway has done what Guerin asked, so it would look really bad to turn around and expose him. I think he's safe. Ek is turning into one of the best two-way centers in the league so it would be silly to expose him as well and the only way we can protect Ek and Greenway is by going 7-3-1 unless Guerin works his magic and gets one of Parise, Zuccarello, or Suter to waive.