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brokos73

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Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2018 at 1:19 p.m.
Thread: Trying to make it work with Willy staying
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>1: I did account for inflation. It is literally right there:
Nylander contract: 6@6.9 (6@7.268 with inflation @83 cap)
Gaudreau contract: 6@6.75 (6@7.677 with inflation @83 cap)
Pasternak Contract: 6@6.66 (6@7.378 with inflation @83 cap)

2: Then take pasternak's contract and add a bit. That is still no where near 9-10.
3: He would be worth less than 7.5 if he signed already, that is what the stats say. He isn't so he will get more, thats why I indexed these to next years cap. Get the Marner number based off these, then add a bit for this years production. <strong>That still doesn't get you 9-10<strong>.</strong></strong>

4: Marner played with average guys and was average. He played with elite guys and he is elite. That makes it seem more like JT is carrying him no? So why would they weigh this years total as much as the previous?
5: Eichel is off and above Marner, he is comparable with Matthews (he actually compares quite well). I have those stats too. Ill just link you the whole ACGM: <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/884206">https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/884206</a> I am planning on re doing it after this season with the updated numbers.

6: There is a lot more to hockey than points. It is why my comparisons are so in depth. And remember that Eichel has been injured in both seasons (62 and 67 games).

So saying Marner gets anything with a 9 or higher is absurd. In fact going much over 8 is almost laughable at this point. Marner at 8@8 is fair right now, with 8.5 being the absolute ceiling if he wins the scoring title and Dubas has a stroke during the contract talks.</div></div>

Sorry i missed your inflation in your last post.

Calling Marner average the last 2 seasons is funny but I see your point. But I will turn your point around on you. Pastrnak has played almost his entire career with very elite players in Bergeron and The Licker except his first 2 seasons where he only had 26 and 27 points. Sure he didn't play full seasons but Marner had 61 and 69 points carrying "average" players. Also Nylander has played his entire career with a generational talent in Matthews and he still put up worse numbers than Marner, although they were close.

I also couldn't agree with you more that hockey is way more than just points. I'm a big believer is judging players with my eyes and watching them play. Seeing how they control the play and if they can dominate shifts and make their line mates better. Marner does that and just completely dominates soooo many shifts in pretty much every game. He made Bozak and JVR way better than they are and they both cashed in with stupid contracts. Sure he is better with Tavares on his line but again, if you watch the games, the majority of those goals are almost tap ins for JT because of the insane play/pass by Marner. And JT is on pace for a career year with Marner.

Either way, this is a fun debate and I wish we could make a bet. I say Marner's contract will start with at least a 9. What do you want to bet? haha
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2018 at 12:50 p.m.
Thread: Trying to make it work with Willy staying
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>Look at Marner's Numbers compared to Nylander. And after this whole Nylander saga you listen to the analysts? They are being just plain stupid if they think Marner gets that much. Look at the numbers yourself, don't have them explain it to you. In fact, here you go.

On to Marner: Marner's stats compared to Nylander, Pasternak, and Gaudreau as of today (am including Pasternak's following season as he did not play very much two seasons before his contract):

Marner points (16-17 - 17-18): 19G/61P - 22G/69P
Nylander points (16-17 - 17-18): 22G/61P - 20G/61P
Gaudreau points: 24G/64P - 30G/78P (14-15 - 15-16 before his contract)
Pasternak points: 15G/26P - 34G/70P - 35G/80P (15-16 (&lt;-- 51 games) - 16-17 - 17-18 mostly before his contract)

Power-Play
Marner: 4ppg - 8ppg | 17ppa - 19ppa
Nylander: 9ppg - 5ppg | 17ppa - 7ppa
Gaudreau: 8ppg - 6ppg| 13ppa - 15ppa
Pasternak: 0 - 10 - 13 ppg | 1-14-13 ppa

Shooting
Marner: 176sog - 194sog | 10.8% - 11.3%
Nylander: 205sog - 184sog | 10.7% - 10.9%
Gaudreau: 167sog - 217sog | 14.4% - 13.8%
Pasternak: 108 - 262 - 246 sog | 13.9 - 14 - 14.2%

Icetime
Marner: 16:49 - 16:23 atoi
Nylander: 16:01 - 16:41 atoi
Gaudreau: 17:43 - 19:56 atoi
Pasternak: 13:57 - 17:59 - 17:58 atoi

Defensive stats:
Marner: 39-25 blocked shots|41-31 5v5 hits | 62 -50 giveaways | 67-85 takeaways
Nylander: 16-18 B.S | 25-21 5v5 hits | 30-54 giveaways | 59-68 takeaways
Gaudreau: 27 - 10 B.S | 14 - 26 5v5 hits | 78 - 90 giveaways | 67 - 41 takeaways
Pasternak: 15-32-31 BLK | 52-72-55 5v5 hits | 51-65-76 giveaways | 35-50-50 takeaways

ADV stats:
Marner: 50.8 - 52.9 CF4 | 0.3 - 3.8 rel | 55.9 - 56.2 Ozone starts
Nylander: 53.2 - 51.4 CF4 | 3.6 - 1.8 rel | 56.8 - 49.8 Ozone starts
Gaudreau: 47.3 - 50.5 CF4 | 3.7-3.1 rel | 56 - 56.7 Ozone starts
Pasternak: 51.9 - 57.8 - 55.5 CF4 | 3.2-4.5-3.1 rel | 51.3 - 57.7 - 62.8 Ozone

Nylander contract: 6@6.9 (6@7.268 with inflation @83 cap)
Gaudreau contract: 6@6.75 (6@7.677 with inflation @83 cap)
Pasternak Contract: 6@6.66 (6@7.378 with inflation @83 cap)
Marner: ?

Now tell me with a straight face Marner gets nearly 10 million aav.</div></div>

A few things here:
-Gaudreau and Pastrnak signed their contracts over 1 and 2 years ago and you have to count for inflation which is big.
-Pastrnak's contract is an absolute steal and every hockey person knows that so it makes it very hard to use him as a comparable.
-If they signed Marner this past summer then I would say he would've been around 7-8 mill but they didn't because of Willy's debacle.
-The biggest difference between Marner and Nylander is who they played with their first 2 seasons. Marner was stuck with Bozak and JVR for the majority of those years and he carried that line. Nylander has spent 95% of his career with Matthews and the rare times he was on his own line, he struggled. Knowledgeable hockey people can see that and know there is a big difference between the 2 players and Marner is obviously a tier above Nylander.
-I also said to compare him to Eichel (I know Eichel is a centre and Marner is a winger but it still works). Comparing their first 3 seasons in the NHL (Marner is only 1/3 into his 3rd season)
Marner: 186GP, 47G, 121A, 168PTS, 0.90PPG
Eichel: 209GP, 73G, 104A, 177PTS, 0.85PPG

Marner is also on pace for 97 assists and 115 points this year. Even if he slows down and ends up around 100 points, do you really believe they can sign him for 6-7 million?????
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2018 at 12:28 p.m.
Thread: Trying to make it work with Willy staying
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>I cannot understand how people have Marner this high when Nylander is at 6.9. Marner is better, but not 2.5 million dollars better.
You can save another million to 1.5 million if you don't overpay Marner.

Also Matthews if he goes higher than JT will likely go to 11.34 to be cute with it, otherwise look for 11aav.</div></div>

Maybe because every single reputable insider says Matthews and Marner will most likely cost around 23 million. I was being hopeful they could get them for those contracts. Try being realistic and stop dreaming that Dubas can pull off a magic trick to get these kids to sign for a lot less than they're worth.

Just look at Marner's numbers compared to Eichel and you'll see why he will be around 10 mill
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2018 at 12:19 p.m.
Thread: Trying to make it work with Willy staying
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>I think you are looking at it wrong. Its not hard to keep Matthews, Marner and Nylander. Its hard to keep all of the depth. Which isn't a huge issue when you have guys like Kadri, Andersen and Rielly locked up for the next while.

If you lose some depth wingers like Brown or Johnson and have to bring up a Marlie or two, that isn't really a problem. Connor Brown isn't the reason this team wins the cup, Nylander, Marner, Matthews and Tavares will carry the team wherever it goes.</div></div>

I think that depth plays a huge roll in winning a cup. Personally I'd rather have Kapanen, Johnsson and a legitimate top 4 right shot Dman than Nylander. But I definitely understand what you're saying and i do agree that they will need positive contributions from some Marlies moving forward. But that D needs help, especially someone to play with Rielly.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 4, 2018 at 4:23 p.m.
Thread: Leafs after Jake
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>They finished with the 12th best defence last year. Tavares makes them a better team this coming season than last years squad. So if we improve on a 12th place finish and move into the top 10 best defensive teams, that'll be great right there. On top of that, our offense is going to be insane this year. So the Leafs will be scary without a single move.

As for Faulk being way better than Gardiner, who scored more points last year? Over their career, Faulk has 12 more points in 12 less games. Faulk has been a plus player 1 time in his career while Gardiner is coming off a season where he was plus 24. Gardiner is known as an elite puck mover who's gambles can sometimes hurt their team. He's also soft in the corners and isn't overly good at boxing out players.

Faulk is known as an elite level puck mover who's gambles sometimes hurt his team and he's also not great in his own end.

So they are the same player, the only difference is the hand they shoot with. So Faulk isn't an upgrade, its taking a problem and moving it to the other side of the ice at the cost of a good defencemen in Gardiner and a 1st round pick. I likely wouldn't have an issue if it was Gardiner for Faulk straight up or even Gardiner and Leivo for Faulk, but far better trades can be made that'll cost less and help the Leafs a lot more.</div></div>

Sure they gave up the 12th fewest goals but that's because they had one of the best goalies in the game. They also gave up the 4th most shots per game and looked lost in their own end. I do agree that with Tavares coming in and also Bozak and JVR leaving, our offense has gotten way better defensively and I do think it will make a big difference.
Plus minus is a useless stat for the most part, although Gardiner's -5 in game 7 was pretty telling as to how he played that game. I may have overpaid slightly in that trade but Faulk also has 1 extra year on his current contract over Gardiner and it's at a decent value.
I'm still hopeful they can somehow get Trouba out of Winnipeg.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 4, 2018 at 4:08 p.m.
Thread: Leafs after Jake
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>I see a lot of Leafs AGM's want to bring Faulk in. I don't know why. He's expensive and has other shortcomings, too. If I were to covet an RD from Carolina, it would be Roland McKeown, not Justin Faulk.

You Leafs cognoscenti have to explain to me why Jake Gardiner is so valuable. (I don't see many Toronto games out here in L.A.) I've been assuming he'll come off the books in 2019 and leave more room to re-sign Matthews, Marner and Kapanen.</div></div>

Faulk would not be my first choice but he's on the trade block so he wouldn't cost as much as others. He had a terrible year for his standards but on a good team, he should bounce right back. The player I wanted to trade for was Trouba but the way this armchair GM works, it wouldn't let me do it because he's an RFA this year. I think he should be the real target but will cost much more than Faulk.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 4, 2018 at 4:05 p.m.
Thread: Leafs after Jake
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Okay 2 things here

1) Jake Gardiner is the left handed version of Faulk so the trade would be 1v1 adding Leivo and a 1st is a gross overpayment. Also Carolina has a stacked left side of their defence. They don't need Gardiner.

2) They just signed Tavares, why not wait to see how the lineup plays as is before wasting assets on fixing perceived flaws.</div></div>

Faulk is an upgrade from Gardiner, hands down and he plays the right side which the Leafs are clearly weak on as of now. Sure there's help coming in a couple years but the time to win is now and they can afford to give up a very late 1st round pick in my opinion.
Perceived flaws??? I'm pretty sure Jake and that right side of the defense is an obvious flaw and has been for years.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 20, 2018 at 11:39 a.m.
Thread: Leafs 2019
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Larkinisking</b></div><div>$17 million for John Tavares and Ryan Ellis combined, I would imagine that both Nylander and Marner get close to Pastrnak money and $12 million per for Matthews welcome to caphell Toronto for the foreseeable future.</div></div>

They definitely will be in cap hell if they were to sign Tavares but they're too smart to do that. They need a top pairing D-man and have for years, not more offence.

Marner and Nylander shouldn't get Pastrnak money because their numbers aren't on the same level as his yet. Look at Winnipeg for comparables....Ehlers is 6 mill and Scheifele is 6.125. Both of them also have better numbers but Ehlers is the closest comparable. That's why isee them signing identical 6-7 year deals at 6 million each.

I also see Matthews a lot closer to 10 million as he really hasn't earned anywhere near the 12 million range.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 20, 2018 at 8:29 a.m.
Thread: Leafs
I don't even know where to begin here because there are soooo many terrible decisions you made.
-Signing JVR for that contract would destroy this teams chances of ever winning the cup, financially and defensively.
-Resigning Komarov and Hainsey makes no sense, as they'll both be too old and too slow.
-You can throw in Girardi to the same argument I made above (not sure why you want to make the Leafs the oldest, slowest team in the league)
-I think you gave Marner and Nylander too much. They should be between 6-7 million at most. Best comparable player/contract for them is Ehlers at 6 million and Scheifele at 6.125. Theres no way they deserve more than those 2 players.
-Leivo and Martin could get more than a 5th EASILY
-Marleau would get way more than a 5th back, but we would have to retain half his salary. I personally wouldn't trade him though.
-As much as I hate Gardiner, him alone would be worth more than a 2nd and Boyle would be a direst swap for Bozak. But why would Toronto even want Boyle back???

1 star!