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cbjthrowaway

cbjthrowaway
Member Since
May 29, 2019
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Columbus Blue Jackets
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Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 16 at 5:16 p.m.
Thread: getting too aggressive
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>athrin</b></div><div>OTT is not trading brady for 2 high risk gambles, CLB would need to add their picks this year and OTT add nothing.</div></div>

this is poster-brained nonsense, it's like if i said "the jackets aren't trading two high-end prospects for an $8m winger, maybe ottawa should add their 2024 1st and an extended chychrun and also take elvis's contract back"

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>athrin</b></div><div>nope hes not, he not even on some list of top NHL affiliated prospects.</div></div>

scott wheeler just <a href="https://theathletic.com/5303482/2024/03/04/top-nhl-prospects-2024-matvei-michkov/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">published</a> his top 75 last month and both guys were in the top 10 lollllll
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 16 at 2:57 p.m.
Thread: getting too aggressive
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheBoyDuddus</b></div><div> Johnson regressed to the point he was scratched before his stint in the minors but even when he came back was not great before getting injured. Jiricek has been on a yo-yo up and down to the minors while also being scratched a handful of times.

If we ignored their draft slots and just looked at what they’ve done so far then we wouldn’t even be considering them in a trade for Brady. This isn’t to say that either are bad, obviously draft slot has relevance and just based off potential they’re both likely in the top 10 prospects not established in the NHL right now, ‘24 draft excluded. </div></div>

kent johnson's 5v5 underlying numbers actually improved, while his ice time and quality of linemates went down. he still absolutely profiles as a future top line player. sillinger was in a similar situation last year (big step down in linemates/usage, big slump) and had a really strong bounce-back this year. kent is far more talented.

in terms of what he's "done so far" – he's 7th in both points and games played among his draft class, with significantly fewer games played than the guys ahead of him.

as for jiricek… he wasn't ready to be a top four defenseman on an NHL team as a 19-year-old. big whoop. still one of the best prospects in the game.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheBoyDuddus</b></div><div> For Ottawa to be giving you a sure thing 30-40G 75-85P physical winger, one of the best power forwards in the league, who also is locked up for another 4 years at a reasonable 8m… the difference between Johnson/Jiricek and Brady can’t be made up by a pick swap that really puts Ottawa no closer to the prospects they’d be targeting.</div></div>

even without a pick swap, this is still by far the best package ottawa would get if they chose to listen on tkachuk. whether or not they take that step is another matter entirely.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 16 at 1:06 p.m.
Thread: getting too aggressive
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CaseyFlyman</b></div><div>...I'd be okay with this, even with a pick swap. </div></div>

as you said, would be a draft floor move. i'm not 100% convinced that the pick swap is necessary, especially if CBJ has a clear top 2-3 on their board and one of their guys is there at 4. not necessarily opposed to it, either.

if both CBJ and OTT move down in the lotto (unlikely) CBJ would be less likely to have an RHD on the board after moving back. if one or both move up in the lotto, the overall framework still works. they could find other means of balancing the value if needed, but to me it's splitting hairs at this point since i don't see another team having a better offer than johnson + jiricek straight up.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CaseyFlyman</b></div><div> Severson - Gudbranson - Boqvist isn't a long-term RD core option, so we'd need a Parekh/Yakemchuk at 7OA, or Levshunov with no pick swap. Even then, we're guaranteeing not being competitive next year, possibly the year after, and hoping that Parekh/Yakemchuk/Levshunov are ready to be the 1RD in 2025-26, which is a big ask. </div></div>

long-term, i don't think there's significant drop-off from jiricek to levshunov. and levshunov's skating + build are close to NHL ready.

short-term… boqvist could be used as a PP specialist (aligning role to skillset), or he could play with werenski (where he did well when healthy) which would push severson to the second pair (good match with mateychuk imo) and gudbranson to the third. blankenburg as a 7D would be a luxury. could also keep provorov until mateychuk establishes himself, or find a different veteran LHD than mikkola.

forward group is probably one veteran winger short of being actually good – could be a reclamation candidate (olofsson, leblanc) or someone more establshed (zucker). would probably be best to rotate them in with brindley/danforth/texier. could also juggle the lines a bit to leverage some past chemistry (i.e. gaudreau with fantilli, laine with jenner, marchenko with sillinger).
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 28 at 1:50 p.m.
Thread: this is a Trev Team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CaseyFlyman</b></div><div>I think the bigger issue for Columbus (over the logjam of bottom-6 forwards, as others have said) is that Gudbranson isn't viewed as a negative asset anymore, at least by the organization. He's a core leader on a very young team, and we don't have another right-shot defenseman that plays his style.

He's not good, and he's overpaid, and yes he makes the defense slightly worse. But his internal value is still higher than his trade value, so we're better off keeping him around to fill that role than doubling down and acquiring worse assets. </div></div>

obviously gudbranson has long been an analytics punching bag, but according to the athletic's player models, he actually is a positive player in terms of defensive impact. this is while also (according to dom's piece today, anyway) having usage that is unfavorable for defensive metrics.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 29, 2023 at 1:40 p.m.
Thread: Sign Lindholm like Severson
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>squashmaple</b></div><div>The current trend is to lock them up early, a la Ottawa with Sanderson, NJ with Hughes, and Buffalo with Thompson. In my opinion, Marchenko is worth the gamble.</div></div>

cannot understate how much i love marchenko's game and personality. that said, those guys aren't great comps.

hughes was 20 when he signed his deal. sanderson had just turned 21. tage was coming off of a 38-30–68 season when he signed his extension.

marchenko is 23 (much closer to being a finished product) and has a career 28-10–38 line across 80 games, which is buoyed by his 16% sh% last year. he's both less proven and more of a finished product than those three guys.

the better comp is oliver bjorkstrand's first extension with the jackets, signed in the summer of 2018 (3 years, $2.5m aav) as a 23-year-old coming off of a 40-point season. that's in line with marchenko's age and production so far. bjorkstrand's second cbj extension ($5.4m aav over 6 years) is probably the high-end comp, but he signed that after scoring at a far higher rate than marchenko has, and that one bought out 4 UFA years (i think).
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 21, 2023 at 11:55 a.m.
Thread: Grier
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rob32sjsharks</b></div><div>Nahhh cause Eklund is more like Fantilli as a cornerstone piece to the future. Johnson is more like Bordeleau. Talented but seems to just be lacking someting so they sent him back to the AHL. And before you argue Johnson is better than Bordeleau, Hertl is way better than Jenner.</div></div>

kent johnson isn't just better than bordeleau, he's better than eklund. he was picked earlier than eklund in the same draft and has 3x as many points in the NHL. he's only in the AHL because they wanted him to play 20 minutes a night and PP1 instead of being on the third line and PP2 here, because it's better for his development.

will smith is your fantilli parallel. eklund is your johnson parallel. bordeleau is your sillinger.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 20, 2023 at 9:02 p.m.
Thread: Grier
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rob32sjsharks</b></div><div>If you trade for Hertl
It’s to pair him with Laine and Gaudreau to give you a high level top line, I 100% get that. Value wise I think they are fairly even right now. I do feel sharks system and style restricts Hertl a bit and with CBJ he likely breaks out.
And while he is older his game is not predicated on speed and that his style ages better than a guy like Gaudreau!

If I was going to propose a deal it would likely be Johnson and Boqvist for Hertl with a cap dump and a pick likely added.
Johnson to replace the C we lose in Hertl and Boqvist gives us an offensive too 4 RD, and both are in your guys dog house right now. So it should work reasonably well</div></div>

KJ is untouchable. they sent him down because it's better for his development to get more minutes + reps at center, and he's been lighting up the AHL since they sent him down there.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 20, 2023 at 5:53 p.m.
Thread: Grier
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rob32sjsharks</b></div><div>The guy your team has as a healthy scratch is more valuable than Hertl? Seriously????

Look I get this isn’t permanent and he’s likely back in soon but you guys kinda shot yourself in the foot value wise by benching him!

That being said Laine + Boqvist or Peeke and a 2nd seems like a reasonable value right now.</div></div>

benching him while he's struggling after he missed three weeks and rejoined a team that is absolutely cratering does not mean that they need to move him, or that they need to move him right now, or that they are going to try to move him. even if they were trying to move him (which they aren't) it wouldn't make any sense to do that now, while his value is at a low point. he's played nine games this year.

and yes, he is more valuable than hertl – and i say that as someone who likes hertl.

laine is five entire years younger than hertl and is coming off a two-year stretch where, despite missing time with injuries, he put up 108 points in a 111 game stretch. hertl has only come close to that pace one season, and that was six years ago. on top of all that, last year laine had the best defensive impacts of any blue jackets forward and hertl's contract has much more room to turn into a disaster.

again, i like hertl as a blue jackets target, but even laine in a one-for-one would be bad business for columbus.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 20, 2023 at 3:54 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 20, 2023 at 3:24 p.m.
Thread: Laine in the Sand
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>squashmaple</b></div><div>He's also coming off a massive concussion, and it's not his first. There is no reason to trade him at the absolute nadir of both his value and career just because.

That said, your last sentence is absurd.</div></div>

my point is that unless there's a 1-for-1 trade that better fits the jackets needs, it makes more sense for them to keep him.

laine has struggled on a bad team since coming back from injury, so everyone runs to hfboards and capfriendly with lowball offers. zegras struggled just as bad on a good team after having contract drama. just saying that by the same logic that ducks fans are using to say laine should be available, zegras would be the most fitting piece to send back in return.