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Celtics21

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Forum: Armchair-GM2 hours ago
Thread: DRW 24-25 - Possible plan
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DanielSan92</b></div><div>I can tell you from watching probably 85% - 90% of the games over the last three years that it's defense lol. Is Lyon playing like Vasilevsky? No. But he's not letting in soft, easy shots left and right. Whereas you can go watch highlights from December or March and see Detroit's defense over and over and over again either allowing an odd-man rush (Or flat out breakaway) half a dozen times per game, failing to clear traffic in front of the net, losing their man, etc.

The game versus SJS in December (Maybe late November) is a peak example. If you really want a glimpse of Petry's defense all year, pull up the highlights from DET vs. CAR in early March. The first goal he literally pinches over to the left to double cover the puck carrier while completely abandoning his own man that's rushing in toward the net.

I do agree somewhat that we're better positioned in the near future for defense than goaltending. On the left side we'll be set very soon with Walman, Edvinsson, and one of AlJo/Wallinder. Right side is a **** show though. ASP is a boom/bust prospect and likely wont see the NHL until mid-season 25-26 at the earliest, if not 26-27.

Cossa and Augustine both had great years. I'm just not a fan of rushing goalies at all. Honestly, I'm not a fan of counting on goalies at all. Outside the league's consistent elite, they're all over the map. Great one year and **** the next.</div></div>

That’s a fair argument. I do think that the level of performance over the past two years of Ullmark would be a pretty significant upgrade. Lyon is what he is. A goalie that probably saves the ones he is supposed to and very little more. He’s basically a more cost efficient version of Tristan Jarry. You can win with that if surrounded by solid talent

For the record, I’m not a fan of Petry.

I believe the best way to develop a goalie is as a #2. Curious to see when Cossa gets there. Not a fan of Augustine, but he’s got some talent for a prospect. I expect he’ll struggle in the AHL.
Forum: Armchair-GM2 hours ago
Thread: Flip Ullmark Land Carlo
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DopeGM</b></div><div>I would say there’s a 75% chance that the pick at 11 is as impactful to the team as Carlo in a different role. Massive difference in pick value is our difference of opinion.

Carlo gets a really nice third contract most likely. So if I’m Bs management, the question is “is three years of Carlo compared to Clifton worth sacrificing in order to land 10+ years of a young, impactful player”

Catton / Iginla for forwards
Yakemchuk / Silayev on D

Those are really projectable, nice pieces to add.

Tough to move Carlo but the value is around correct in ACGM land :)</div></div>

I think there 11th pick is around the point in most drafts where you get into hit and miss territory. Your likelihood of selecting Wahlstrom is probably just as high as Villardi.

I don’t believe Boston is in a stage where decreasing their defensive effectiveness fits with their identify. I think the probability that the 11th pick is better than Carlo over the next 4 years is probably in the 25th percentile (since you chose a random one, I might as well).
Forum: Armchair-GM3 hours ago
Thread: DRW 24-25 - Possible plan
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DanielSan92</b></div><div>The Athletic's stat boy was indicating Petry was better right up until the last month of the season lol.

Much like advanced stat nerds were talking about how Detroit's shooting percentage was ungodly and unmaintainable because rather than actually watch a game, they put numbers in their computer and reported the bull**** it spat out. Detroit's shooting percentage was absurd because they refused to shoot until they had the perfect opportunity open net, and it was mind-numbing to watch most nights.

Lyon bailed Detroit out more than he was a burden to them. Problem is he got hung out to dry by absolutely dog **** defense most nights. Much like how Ned can look good before Detroit, awful in Detroit, and back to good outside of Detroit. Much like Husso can look good before Detroit and look like **** once he gets here.

Goaltending isn't the problem. **** defense is.</div></div>

I’m not a fan of a lot of the Athletic stuff. I also don’t believe all stats are relevant, but this one (GSAx/60) is pretty useful for goalies.

I see goaltender and defense as a problem for Detroit, but I also see young players on defense who are more ready than the goaltenders
Forum: Armchair-GM3 hours ago
Forum: Armchair-GM3 hours ago
Thread: DRW 24-25 - Possible plan
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DanielSan92</b></div><div>Reading random stats is easier than watching hockey.

Then again, those stats also indicated that Jeff Petry was a better defenseman for Detroit than Mo Seider lol.</div></div>

Did they? Which one? Nobody who’s watched both those players would ever say that.

Some stats are less useful than others, but GsaX is a pretty useful stat in rating goalie effectiveness. Hell of a lot more effective than save % which is often a team based stat.

I’ve watched plenty of Alex Lyon over the years. He goes on good stretches, but is inconsistent and it’s backed up by this stat. Over the course of the year, he saved just about what was expected of him. Never been a fan of Husso.

I like what I saw out of Cossa in Grand Rapids. Thought Augustine was OK at Michigan State. I’ve probably watched more of those two than most Detroit fans ;)
Forum: Armchair-GM12 hours ago
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 10:28 a.m.
Thread: DRW 24-25 - Possible plan
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>Im just talking about including Wallinder. The trade as is is totally fine but no reason to include a prospect like Wallinder for Ullmark, especially because you're gonna have to pay him $6M+ a year</div></div>

It takes two teams to make a deal. My assumption is the Red Wings cant continue with Husso/Lyon. There are enough teams that need goaltenders that this package probably gets passed on. My assumption is Cossa could become the backup while developing in the NHL

I believe the package would be Buium or Wallinder plus a second. Tuomisto’s time at Denver probably isn’t a positive here. I thought he was OK when I saw him last year. Probably would be third or fourth in Providence in terms of quality