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dca919

Member Since
Jul 12, 2018
Forum Posts
770
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6
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 13, 2020 at 3:36
Thread: Schmidt is a good add Cap issues are from dumb bottom 6 signings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OlegP</b></div><div>No no no.
The bonus was paid September 1st and you are not gonna get a 3rd pick rounder for Staal at the deadline. 🤦‍♂️ This is Marc Staal not Eric. I think you made another mistake. Check the name.

Last week, you were getting Saad despite his NTC and were flipping him at the deadline. Cause Saad would totally waive to go to Detroit!
Everyone gets flipped that plays on a terrible team I guess. Let’s forget perceived value that ruined players value like Tyson Barrie that has to take a pay cut to rebuild his worth in Edmonton.

The mental gymnastics you are pulling off here is impressive.</div></div> Loui Eriksson has 2 years left on his contract. 1M this year in base + 4M in salary in salary next year.

Retain 50% on pretty much means they will get a 3rd round pick (will be from a playoff contending team with the pick in the last 10 picks in the 3rd round)...that's the going rate for 50% retention of salary. Less retention = higher pick. Look at the defensive pylons <strong>traded with 50% retained salary</strong> and the picks they got. The shell of Mike Green was traded for a conditional 3rd round pick just last year at 50%. Marco Scandella at 50% for a 2nd and 4th. Brenden Dillon at 50% for a 2nd and conditional 3rd.

Maybe you think salary retention and cap space don't matter...but that's where the pick gets boosted by a round. So examine those other 50% retention trades and be shocked. Then figure in a flat cap and what salary cap space is worth.

I don't know about Saad. And I don't think I've ever said yes that's a good fit on this team unless it was a cap dump for a very high pick where you just couldn't say no. So I have no idea where you are coming from on that..... it's kind like the people that think the Wings would take on Loui Eriksson's deal for anything less than a conditional 1st/2nd and a 3rd. It's just unrealistic and they are pricing him as an asset and not as a cap dump that will cost 5M total over two years for a 4th line player at best.

Was the bonus paid by the Rangers. Yes. Did it hit his bank account in Sept or July? Does it matter...the point was it wasn't paid by the team he was traded to but by the team he was traded by. So the point is still valid isn't it. <strong>Talk about mental gymnastics.</strong> The bonus came payable on July 1st but didn't hit his actual bank account until Sept 1, but he was traded later in Sept so somehow that matters...give me a break...point is made Staal cost the Wings 3.2M this year and about 1.6M if they trade him at the deadline for what they get from him at the deadline they already got a 2nd round pick. While Eriksson isn't flip-able as d-men and 50% rentention change hands frequently at the deadline while overpriced forwards that aren't worth their contracts anymore with term left don't. And you are pricing Eriksson the same as Staal. So maybe you better consider that in future non-sense.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 13, 2020 at 3:17
Thread: Trade instead of offersheet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>UncleRay</b></div><div>I guess people don’t realize how good these players are.

Grze is a solid 2nd pairing D and 2nd round picks to sweeten that is pretty safe considering the alternative of offersheets (1st and a 3rd only).

Kase and Bjork are solid 3rd liners and both have them have 2nd line potential on the right team. Think Reilly Smith and Vatrano. Moore is a solid D considering Detroit has almost no LD after this coming season. Sweetened with 2 more picks to help with the rebuild. Not high ones, but close enough. I’d prefer Mantha for his size and goal, but Bertuzzi is another option instead. For him, what is offered is huge overpay. He and Kase are pretty darn close to even swap.

Sergachev will sign a bridge deal if structured the right way. Just like McAvoy and Carlo did, and Debrusk will do. This is why the trade va offersheet because you’ll need to pay a lot more and we want the salary for other things.

Again, offersheet could work as well. Someone will get Sergachev or Cirreli. Force TBL on one and the other becomes target #2. This is just more gentlemanly to give them a good trade and save some picks and salary.

How would you get those 3 players? Easy to sit back and poke holes but would love to see your options!!</div></div>I'm pretty sure it's you that doesn't realize how good the players you are trading for are.

Offer sheets would be good if they were in the right price range (5 years for way more $$$$). You're about 1/2 price on Dunn. And about 1M off on Mantha's and Sergachev's AAV. Beyond that any time you start adding more than 2 players and less than 2x 1st round picks to a trade of a RFA on a team with a 18M in cap space just stop typing.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 13, 2020 at 2:17
Thread: Stay Away You Sergachev Vultures - Worst Case Scenario
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CoopsTroops</b></div><div>It's not terrible, but it's not great. If Volkov can grow into a middle 6 role as coaches expect, the forward situation is decent except for replacing Paquette with Joseph.

For defense: Hedman-Rutta won 3 SCF games, McDonagh would be perfect partner for Foote his rookie season, and Sergachev would have a weak link partner in the worst case scenario, but Cernak still in the likely scenario.</div></div>PROJECTED CAP SPACE $2,895,834
Sergachev, Cirelli, Cernak as RFA will cost 11.5M at least

Untouchables: Kucherov, Hedman, Vasilevskiy, Point
NMC's: Stamkos
NTC's: Palat, Gourde, Johnson, McDonagh, Coburn
MNTC's: Killorn (16 team)

So pretty much everyone making &gt; 2M except Stamkos can't be moved. Why isn't it terrible? Oh, did I add tax advantage state so players don't want to waive. Did I mention SC winning team so players don't want to leave. Did I mention COVID threat so no one wants to uproot families.

...and you're going to play with only 22 on the roster in a year with a very condensed schedule? Good luck on that.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 13, 2020 at 1:54
Thread: Stay Away You Sergachev Vultures - Worst Case Scenario
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CoopsTroops</b></div><div>Nah, that 1st got lottery protection. Prospect in return more likely anyway, but I'm not in the mood to go through the entire Detroit prospect list and figure out who is fair return for Cernak.</div></div>I don't care if it has top 5 protection. Detroit will be drafting in the top 8 almost guaranteed. #6-8 pick &gt; Cernak in the 2021 deep defensive draft. The following year I expect it to be top 10. Top 10 &gt; Cernak. Way too expensive for Tampa's current situation.

Everyone else is right look at the returns on these trades when one team is in cap trouble...it's pennies. You might want an offer sheet on 2 of the 3. But I don't see how you guard against it (save Stamkos LTIR bid)

TB is even worse in cap hell and will need to sell for those pennies on the dollar not premium dollars. The alternative is an offer sheet. While rare I am not sure they haven't been presented to those 3 already. Their agent is probably using them as leverage to BriseBois right now saying we'll sign them if you don't raise your offer to X amount.

No one sees a way out for Tampa not even the highest paid insider...it's a matter of what bad choice they come up with. Not what trade gets them almost equal return on their dollar.

btw: worst case scenario is your players sign those offer sheets and no one with a NTC/NMC waives it---which is kinda where Tampa is reportedly at after the Johnson waivers debacle.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 13, 2020 at 1:30
Thread: Detroit
I think Stevie is looking at lesser term on Mantha (3 years) and the benefit to him is he becomes an UFA around his 29th birthday (he still could be 28 depending on season ending date) with flat caps era in the past (hopefully). The benefit to the Wings on a shorter deals is continued injuries derailing career and not buying UFA years in a flat cap world. So I expect 2-3 year deal for him. Read something on the Athletic about this today.

As far as depth chart: I think they are going to try Fabbri at that 2nd line center (Yzerman presser said so--but that was before adding Namestnikov). I expect Namestnikov on the 3rd line LW. Filppula will be that 3rd C (Namestnikov &amp; Fabbri FO% lags Filppula's by my memory). Gagner's going to be on that 3rd line too. Svechnikov seems like a 4th liner (or traded if he was going to get waived).

<strong>You're missing Timashov </strong>(he was also qualified--he might be the LW on the 4th line instead of Svech): I think Nielsen might be buried in the AHL because of these options.

All those guys overseas (that are eligible to return) will depend on the AHL playing a season or not. If not, I think they stay overseas too.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 13, 2020 at 1:08
Thread: Eriksson to OTT
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OlegP</b></div><div>First. Not how it works.

2nd, read the description, again

Eriksson also makes 1M this year in real salary. 5M is combined cap hit over two years so Ottawa gets to pay low on 2 consecutive years as well</div></div> 1) Yes, LTIR can be used to get to the cap floor..why do you think Arizona acquired all those contracts a few years ago when they were a cap floor team. LTIR counts against the <strong>cap floor.</strong>

2) Description doesn't matter as I<em> pointed out a fundamental flaw in trading with Ottawa...their cheap owner.
</em>
3) Eriksson makes 1M in salary this year and 4M in salary next year (3M bonus + 1M in salary) = <strong>5M total</strong>. Again Ottawa's owner is cheap so much easier to take on 1 year of 1M salary for $6,083,333 in cap floor spending then find a similar situation next year costing only 2M in real dollars vs your 5M solution.

did I mention Eugene Melnyk being super tight with money enough?
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 13, 2020 at 12:42
Thread: 2021 cup winners
That doesn't look like a Cup winning team. It's essentially the same team as last year except you substituted TJ Brodie for TysonBarrie &amp; Codi Ceci, Kasperi Kapanen for Jimmy Vessey, Andreas Johnsson for Wayne Simmonds. Last year's team technically missed the playoffs (Lost Qualifying Round) and it wasn't like last year's team was an aberration (the prior 3 years were 1st round exits).

I can tell you why the Leafs lose in the playoffs next year already: defense. It's been their problem for years because of poor roster construction having top 4 forwards eat so much cap space: regular season champs and early playoff exits.

This year would have been the correct year to tear down this team and rebuild. No temper tantrum fans throwing jerseys on the ice or booing the home team. Plus team would be on the rise when Matthews contract comes up. Instead of trying to hide the defensive flaws for the next 2 years and being forced to lose quality depth players while doing so.

Oh and Detroit rejects the Holl trade as they already have better younger RHD: (2019 1st rounder) Seider, (2016 2nd &amp; current 1st pair RHD) Hronek, (2017 2nd) Lindstrom, (2019 2nd) Antti Tuomisto, (2020 2nd) William Wallinder, (2020 3rd) Donovan Sebrango, or (2020 3rd) Eemil Viro. Plus the 2021 loaded defensive draft class (where the Wings will pick in the top 8 almost guaranteed).
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 13, 2020 at 12:11
Thread: Schmidt is a good add Cap issues are from dumb bottom 6 signings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>The_Rocket</b></div><div>I think this is a trade in 2021. So 1 year left on Eriksson’s $6million hit. Cost is basically the same as taking Staal at 5.7 million for year, no?</div></div>AAV didn't matter...Wings still have 18M even after acquiring 5 free agents.

Staal was a soon-to-be 34 year old serviceable 2nd pair (but really a decent 3rd pair) LHD, which was a position the Wings needed. Staal had his 1M bonus paid on July 1 by the New York Rangers. Wings are only stuck with 3.2M for a mid-second. Veteran d-men can be traded by retaining 50% at the deadline for a 3rd round pick.

Eriksson will be a 36 year old $4M winger that really is only a serviceable bottom 6 player. Something the Wings have in abundance. Even if the Wings retained 50% at the deadline not many playoff teams need bottom 6 depth by way of a 36 yr old--so his trade value even without his MNTC would be very limited.

It's why Eriksson's contract would cost more for a team to dump then that of a defensive d-man.