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doreh

Doreh
Member Since
May 29, 2021
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Washington Capitals
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Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 10, 2023 at 4:03 p.m.
Thread: i could live with this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DH28Hockey</b></div><div>Flyers probably consider this. Not that I think the Caps would do this, but I'd think the Flyers would prefer the Caps 2023 1st alone over this whole package</div></div>

don't think Caps would part wiht their 2023 1st either...they're a missing the playoffs and probably getting a top 10 pick.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ClockReads2113</b></div><div>lol what is that Kuz trade? If Caps trade him they are easily getting a 1st and won't have to eat money.

I do like the Konecny add though, been wanting him for years. Then I'd use the Grz and Tatar money to grab one more top end forward like an Ehlers.</div></div>

c'mon, kuzy is baaaad...agree they can get more for him, just wanted him out. he's not a top offense generator anymore and a blackhole defensively. can't think of a team wanting to add him for 2 more years at that money. If they decide to move him, I think the return is going to be low...maybe move him to the wing? but his 7.8M cap hit is probably better used somewhere else in the lineup

added grz as alexeyev insurance and he's in the final year of his contract..could be someone cheaper and use the extra money plus tatar deal to get a better top 6 guy. T. Hall maybe if Boston decide to move him? Don't think WPG move Ehlers but hope WSH would be all over if they do
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 12, 2021 at 2:36 a.m.
Thread: stop trading Kuzy for pennies on the dollar
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DogDayCaps2</b></div><div>That value is closer to Eichel than Hertl they want the equivalent of 4 1st

Lappy = 1st
Kuzy = 1st +
I said add a 1st
V V = 2nd /3rd
Yeah that’s damn close to 4 1st

Again not 🚀 science. Just know your players value. I said Canada didn’t pick him bc of his injuries. The kid scored 12p in 9 playoff games that’s great.

What are the odds?
Capitals selects rounds 1-3 note worry

Alexeyev Fehérváry Mcm Leason Protas Lappy. They been killing it late in the draft. Kuzy was also a late pick…. Odds aren’t terrible considering all these guys will be huge parts of the future

Capitals are 12th in xgf% and HDGF%. That’s not good at all.</div></div>

My point is teams value players differently. A team like Buffalo (if they decide to move Eichel), Det or SJ know that Kuzy won't be there when they're competitive again and are looking for future pieces. They may not value him as a 1st and are going to ask for good future pieces with him.

On the other hand, teams like VGK, Min or MTL might look at him as a guy with a good playoff history and talent to help them win now. Because of that, they might value him closer to a 1st as they may take a chance on him returning to 2018 form and helping them climb the contender status ladder.

But then comes his off ice stuff, that could make those win now teams scared and force them to look somewhere else for help. The reality is the off ice stuff decreases his value and we can only speculate as what his behaviour is inside that locker room.

Even Lapierre might be valued lower than a 1st round by some teams scared by his injury history.

Going after Eichel is a pipe dream. Caps don't have those assets. LAK can offer Turcotte, Villardi, Thomas and a 1st. VGK can throw Tuch, Glass, Hague and a 1st. NYR can offer Schneider/Lundkvist, Chytil, Kakko and a 1st. Car show Suzuki, Necas and a 1st. Caps can't come close to any of those offers.

That's why, considering that Lapierre won't help the team win during Ovi final years, that I'd be willing to part with him, VV and Kuzy in an overpayment to get an already established and very good player with a contract extension in place than wait another year to see if Kuzy returns to great status, which I personally think it's unlikely.

Agree that all the players listed are part of the future. But outside of McM, who can be a game breaker? Alexeyev and Fehervary top out as 2nd pair guys and with luck and the right partner may play on the top pair. McM is a top 6 in the making with potential to be one. Protas as a middle 6 guy. Leason had a poor first pro season and really improved this past season. May become a middle 6 winger. Lapierre has the skills to be top 6 guy but I see him as a boom or bust type of guy. AJF may become a PK specialist and speedy 4th liner. After his year in Sweden, Nardella may become a solid third pair guy. On the current roster, who'll play with them in 5 years? Mantha, Wilson, the goalies, Carlson? Orlov? That would be a bottom third of the league roster. The game breakers will come from the early picks this team will result in that can be plugged immediately or in short time in the lineup. Dark times are coming but they're also fun. Even Hertl could be later traded after the window closes to recoup some of the value lost with his trade. He'll still be of service when Ovi, Backy and Oshie are gone.

Sorry about the long text again. I should really learn how to summarize my thoughts but English is not my first language and it's hard.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 12, 2021 at 12:36 a.m.
Thread: stop trading Kuzy for pennies on the dollar
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DogDayCaps2</b></div><div>VV had a great rookie season. Is a rfa. Is signed to a sub million deal for the next season. He’s absolutely worth a 2nd. He was top 10 in ice time and wins. You acted like this kid had the 99 devils in front of him. Capitals are one of the worse defensive teams in the league.

Felix Robert Is 21 not 19. Why would the capitals trade a 1st round pick that they draft last year for less than a first when he had an incredible season and an amazing playoffs. It’s not rocket science pretty basic stuff. Lol like what’s his value now? Did it drop in a year where he put up great numbers ? That’s just silly. At this point I’m questioning if you understand how to properly value players or if you are actually a caps fan at all? If you add another 1st you could get close to Eichel lol just saying you are selling way too low in Kuzy. They guy is great. Lappy might actually turn out to be better than McM have you ever watched him play. Kid looks to have elite talent. He’s also managed to avoid injury … IMO a big reason Canada didn’t pick him.</div></div>

Do you really think Kuzy, VV, Lapierre, a 1st and a 3rd get you close to Eichel? Man, I think you're still stuck in 2018 hoping to see Cup run Kuzy magically reappear on the Capital One Arena ice. Let me tell you, he's not going to. He is 29 YO.

Kuzy doesn't move the needle for Eichel and many other teams can offer better young pieces than
VV, Lapierre and a 1st. Even with his injury situation, that may force Buffalo to take a lesser deal if they decide to move him, Caps can't come close to what a team like the NYR, ANA or LAK can offer for him. Even VGK to mention a contender can offer better pieces.

The only team I think my pay a better value for Kuzy is CBJ out of desperation but I think they are on his no trade list.

VV was top 10 in ice time and wins because the Caps had no other option. Samsonov and his 2 Covid list stints? Craig Anderson? Any goalie would have gotten those wins. An average one might have gotten one or two more. Right now he's an ok starter that might develop into a solid one. Agree his cap hit is enticing but it's for just one more season. His medium and low danger sv% last season were below average, meaning he let in more soft goals than average. His rebound control isn't very good even if it got better as the season went along. Caps were one of the worst defensive teams in the league? They were the 9th best team during the season on 5 on 5 expected goals against. http://moneypuck.com/teams.htm

I might start questioning your hockey understanding after this. Both of our abilities to judge players don't really matter as we're two fans arguing back and forth on these boards nowhere close to being a hockey scout.

The only difference between you an me is that I don't overvalue my teams players and prospects while undervaluing everyone elses.

At this point Lapierre is nothing more than a good prospect with major injury concerns. His skills are legit but there's a reason he fell in the draft and the Caps took a shot trying to hit a HR after having selected late for so many consecutive years in the first round.

He's still worth a first in my opinion but not a 1st plus and his value hasn't changed since being drafted. He had a kind of season expected of him. I can only think you're joking after saying Canada didn't pick him to avoid another injury. His points total doesn't mean he had an amazing season just a good one. His selection was performance based but go look at their roster. It's stacked. 6 2020 eligible draftee forwards were selected and one of them was selected 2 spots after Lapierre. He isn't better than any of the forwards selected. He's good and may turnout to be a steal but he's not a can't miss prospect.

What are the odds a late first, second or third round picks making to the league let alone becoming impact players? Really low I guess. I would definitely trade those odds for a play driving, defensively responsible 27 YO top 6 center if extended to try to better during Ovi and Backy final years.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 11, 2021 at 7:49 p.m.
Thread: stop trading Kuzy for pennies on the dollar
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DogDayCaps2</b></div><div>When someone describes something as not terrible… it’s generally a good rule of thumb that the deal isnt good. Hertl is a solid player but giving up way too much.

Let’s break down the deal

VV is worth a 2nd?
Lappy is a 1st round pick that has increased his value with a great season and an amazing playoffs.
3rd
You above asked if a Habs fan would do Kuzy for Brook+a 2021 1st (it's going to be a really late one)+2022 2nd+Danault signing rights

So you are paying a
Kuzy ( worth a 1st + 2nd and prospect)
Lappy ( 1st rounder +)
V V ( 2nd maybe more)
3rd

For Hertl who you then need to turn around and sign.</div></div>

Yes I would overpay to get an extended Hertl for Kuzy. The caps can ask permission to talk to his agent and hammer out an extension before processing the trade. They have Schultz's expiring deal to increase his cap hit. If SJ refuses, don't go through with it.

VV is worth a 2nd at best. More like a 3rd. His performance this season in relation to the team's play in front of him was below average. His GSAE was -7.

No way in hell is Lapierre worth a 1st +. His season was good. Since when 1.48 PPG is a great season in the QMJHL? Felix Robert had 2.00 two seasons ago and signed an AHL deal with Wilkes Barre. Xavier Simoneau had 1.46 and went undrafted. Qmjhl is the weakest of the major junior leagues. He didn't make Canada's wjc roster as an 18YO as most of the top prospects do.

As I said in the other thread, Lapierre is a good prospect, but not untouchable or a star in the making and he won't help during the final Ovi and Backy years. Hertl can and with an extension can also bridge the gap to a rebuild with McMichael and Protas as 1-2-3 C.

And I asked a MTL fan what he thought about the deal. The 1st 2nd and a prospect ares added because there's no certainty in resigning Danault before free agency in the case Montreal accept. MTL and SJ are at different stages. MTL is looking for players to help them win now while gradually ading some of their prospects to the lineup. SJ is looking for future, which Kuzy isn't. That's why Lapierre and VV are in there

Again, I know it's an overpayment I'd be willing to do to shake the core and replace Kuzy with Hertl extended. And yes, due to the almost fully closed window and after the Mantha-Vrana trade, I'd trade 2 late 1sts (one with massive injury concerns), a late 2nd, 2 3rds and a prospect like Brook for an extended Hertl. Maybe remove one of the thirds.

Fortunately for us we're both on these boards and not running the team
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 11, 2021 at 7:04 p.m.
Thread: stop trading Kuzy for pennies on the dollar
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Radu47</b></div><div>That's not terrible

VV kinda meh value especially given Seattle

Easy to argue Kuzy is kinda neutral value on that big contract given age and term, pretty precarious also a lot of players abruptly decline around age 30

Lucic, Neal, Okposo, Eriksson, etc.

He doesn't drive play either

Hertl does wonderfully

Lappy a good not great prospect

If SJ retained on Hertl especially it'd be reasonable

Idk it's not the worst</div></div>

Thanks Radu47, as you can see in the post above, I'm the guy who made said trade, I know it's an overpay but it's nowhere near terrible. I think the caps will have to overpay and attach value to Kuzy to get a top 6 guy in return or will have to settle for futures if they decide to move him. Because of that, I think he stays in the end.

My reasoning behind the trade is here https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/462471 if interested
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 11, 2021 at 6:16 p.m.
Thread: stop trading Kuzy for pennies on the dollar
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>seanross</b></div><div>Kuzy is good but is 29 and is payed almost 8m until he’s like 33 and his problem of ice could decrease his value. Also he’s playing with guys like Ovi Carlson Backstrom etc.. I really like Kuzy and I would be glad if habs trade for him but I don’t think a trade involving kuznetsov would get back the actual value of a #1 70 pts center. Of im the habs im proposing Drouin (cap hit + still can be a good winger if not in montreal), a prospect like Harris or Struble and a 2cnd or Drouin + Fleury/brook + 1rst</div></div>

Caps fan here agreeing with everyone's take on a Kuzy trade return. If they decide that moving someone from the core is the way, I think Kuzy is the first to go. But after the coke video and suspension, the decline in play after the amazing 2018 cup run, the subpar defensive play, the "trying to be the best player in the world takes too much work and I don't want to go there" interview, the inability or lack of professionalism following safety protocols and the 1 game team discipline suspension, I think the team will have to settle for a underwhelming return if they trade him or will have to significantly add to get a top 6 guy in return.

I'm the guy who traded Kuzy+Vanecek+Lapierre and 2022 3rd for an extended Hertl not 1 year of Hertl. Caps can use Schultz expiring deal after 21-22 season to extend him.

About MTL interest what's your opinion on Kuzy for Poehling or Brook+a 2021 1st (it's going to be a really late one)+2022 2nd+Danault signing rights at the entry draft. Have no idea about MTL plans regarding Danault
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 11, 2021 at 6:05 p.m.
Thread: a little less crazy but still highly unlikely
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DogDayCaps2</b></div><div>Guy Hertl isnt worth all that.... longstory short you massively overpaid and traded away one of the Capitals best playoffs players. Kuzy last 5 years is a .96ppg playoff guy. Rossi was comared bc he is in badshape since he got covid</div></div>

Agree on the overpay, disagree on the massively. Knowingly overpaying to shake up the core and getting a very good player who'll still be around once extended to help the transiton years after Ovi and Backy.

If they decide to move someone from the core is the way, I think Kuzy is the first to go. After the coke video and suspension, the decline in play, the subpar defensive play, the "trying to be the best player in the world takes too much work and I don't want to go there", the inabitly or lack of professionalism of following safety protocols and the 1 game team discipline suspension, I think the team will have to settle for a underwhelming return if they trade him or will have to significantly add to get a top 6 guy.

Once again, because of that, I think he stays in the end

But let's agree on disagree.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 11, 2021 at 4:21 p.m.
Thread: a little less crazy but still highly unlikely
That's the problem around here. Everyone thinks their opinion are indeed facts and everyone else that disagrees is idiotic, stupid or insane. Insanity is running the same aging core year after year after 3 straight 1st round exits and 2 wins the past 2 seasons and hope that changing complimentary pieces around said core will make them go past TB, VGK, COL, CAR or BOS.

Are we really comparing Rossi to Lapierre?? Rossi's numbers are vastly superior (I can also check player stats on eliteprospects) playing in a tougher league in the OHL. I would say that comparing these two is idiotic. See how easy that is?

And who cares if he's a good player in the QMJHL playoffs? How does that translate to the NHL playoffs? He didn't make Canada's WJC roster this year. An A level prospect would have made the team as an 18 YO as McMichael did. I'm not saying Lappy is a bad prospect but I don't consider him untouchable or a star in the making.

The Caps are trying to win for the next 4 years with this core. Lapierre will not help with that. They'll worry about a rebuild after Ovi and Backy retire. That's completely different situation with the Wild and Rossi as they have a younger team and can wait for him to force his way onto the team.

Hertl and Kuzy are comparable players and an extended Hertl would keep him on the team longer than Kuzy 4 remaining years. Hertl is more consistent, 2 years younger and who knows which Kuzy will show up next season. Hoping that 2018 Kuzy suddenly reappears 4 years older is once again idiotic.

VV top 10 in ice time and wins. What other options did the Caps have? Samsonov and his 2 COVID list stint and Craig Anderson? Some goalie would have gotten those wins. His goals saved above expectation weren't something to rave about. Right now I think he's ok starter that may develop into an solid starter. Caps already have that with Samsonov with a higher ceiling. So yes, I would move him.

Remove the pick if you like, but I'd for sure do Kuzy+VV+Lappy for an extended Hertl. The Caps attached a 1st to Vrana to get Mantha, two comparable players, just for cost control, fit and Vrana's frustration with his role. The 2nd was for Detroit to take Panik's contract. So I don't see how this would be terrible asset management

Having said that, I think this scenario is unlikely and the Caps will end up keeping Kuzy but I would not expect a significant return if he's dealt without sweetners.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 11, 2021 at 3:32 p.m.