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grok

Member Since
Aug. 13, 2019
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St. Louis Blues
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Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 6, 2020 at 9:35 p.m.
Thread: The fabled cap crunch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>It came out snarkier than How I meant it. Maybe the leafs do re sign Andersen. Not sure if it is wise to throw big money at an aging goaltender. It will certainly depend on his ask.

Leafs had one massive cap crunch. They don’t have any in the foreseeable future. If I gave you the leafs numbers for contracts before this season and a list of players to be moved I don’t think many people would have thought it possible. I don’t look at crunches as a bad thing. It usually means players habe exceeded expectations.</div></div>

I agree with everything you're saying, I just find it interesting to continue the discussion when there's more contract questions on the horizon. Appreciate the responses
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 6, 2020 at 5:21 p.m.
Thread: The fabled cap crunch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>Leafs send kerfoot to Seattle and move engvall to centre and Robertson comes up. Leafs go with Woll... We could debate this to 2046 if you would like. The fact is that players move around, contracts get shuffled and caps rise. Everyone always tries to make having too many good players an issue on this site.</div></div>

What a weirdly confrontational response. I raised a concern, you gave an interesting answer. That could have been it if you didn't feel like being a snarky dickhead.

Leaving Andersen and Kerfoot exposed makes Toronto an interesting target, but does Toronto let Andersen go if he doesn't get picked in the expansion draft? He's still a full .010 above average on an offense-first team
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 5, 2020 at 5:03 a.m.
Thread: Honest opinion
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>There are very few 3rd line forward who score 40+ points. 40+ is generally 2nd line production.</div></div>

The production you want for a second line guy on a championship team is 50-65, at least. Look at the best teams in the league. All of them that you would consider "balanced" have second liners projecting for 55+ points. St Louis has Perron (PPG), ROR (projects 70), Schwartz (projects 70), Schenn (projects 65), and Tarasenko (PPG before injury) in their top six. Tampa's top 6 is all projecting 60+. Same with Toronto, Colorado, Vegas. Boston doesn't have a bunch of 60 point scorers but their reputation is top-heavy and they'll have two players easily over 100 points on the season.

The game isn't a low and slow anymore. Scoring is up, games are faster, and a top-6 player has to hit that 50 point mark to have some legitimacy. Johnsson is exactly the guy you want as your 7th forward if you're a playoff team. He can play up and won't weigh down your top minutes guys if you have an injury, but he just doesn't produce enough to rely on him in a top-6 deployment for 100 games.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 5, 2020 at 3:36 a.m.
Thread: Honest opinion
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TMLSage</b></div><div>Hope you are also not believing all these negative opinions on Ceci obtained from the so called expert media types who watched him play last year with the Senators. The actual fact is Ceci is a solid 4th, 5th or 6th pairing defenceman on the Leafs. He was played in a 1rst and 2nd pairing defence role on the absolutely terrible Ottawa Senators where he became a whipping boy and reputation unfairly damaged by the Ottawa media. The reality is that he is now on a much better Maple Leafs team and put into a 4th, 5th or 6th pair defenseman role where he is succeeding and being protected and properly coached for the first time in his career by Sheldon Keefe. I would not be totally surprised if Leafs resign him for something around $3,000,000 per year after season depending on whether they resign Muzzen and Barrie.</div></div>

I've been one of the most vocal critics of Ceci on this forum and he deserves every word. His Corsi, Fenwick, expected goals, actual points are all the worst among Toronto defensemen with more than 20 starts, at all of actual, per-60, and relative rates. He's absolutely terrible in the top-4 role he's paid for. The only stat he has on a regular is a +9 compared to Dermott's +8, but even then Dermott has better possession numbers and 8 points in half as many games. He's doing all this while getting carried by Rielly and constantly bailed out by Andersen, who has a wholly unsustainable .930 sv% when Ceci is on the ice. Ceci is the kind of player you sign to a sub-2m contract, shelter minutes, and use as a PK specialist and that's it. Any conception that he's not abjectly the worst defenseman on that team and the worst player in this LAK trade proposal is delusional. He's a negative asset, especially at his cap hit. The only thing TOR should give a **** about in that trade is whether they want to chase a big ticket FA defenseman.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 2, 2020 at 5:11 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 2, 2020 at 5:04 p.m.
Thread: Ceci evaluation time
honestly ceci has been just as bad this season as he was with ottawa, he's just getting lucky.

his possession numbers are abysmal--no toronto defenseman with more than 10 games played this season has a worse corsi, worse corsi/60, or worse relative corsi. possession numbers and shooting statistics give him a terrible expected goals percentage. he's admittedly on the ice for a lot of good chances, but the team isn't converting those chances into goals. he's getting sheltered with an above-50% offensive zone start percentage (not just offensive zone faceoffs--this accounts for line changes too). even with sheltered minutes, ceci's a black hole for shots, with one of the worst on-ice shooting percentages on the team.

ceci looks okay because his teammates are bailing his ass out night-in and night-out. andersen is putting up .930 with ceci on the ice, compared to his .915 on the season. ceci's numbers with rielly are pretty bog average, but they're abysmal with muzzin. guess which of those two he's played 455 minutes with and which he's played 75 with. even with barrie, andersen is still playing lights out with a .915 sv% against a 44% corsi.

all signs point to ceci being lucky and a product of the team's success, with the underlying numbers indicating he's by far the worst regular on the team and being paid about $3.7m too much. keeping ceci for around 1.5m and sequestering him to the third line might be worth it, but i would rather take my chance with a rookie on an ELC or a replacement level AHL regular.