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jnowariak
Member Since
Aug. 26, 2020
Favourite Team
Minnesota Wild
Forum Posts
3892
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 19, 2023 at 4:43 p.m.
Thread:
An alternative look at Addison to DET
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drmantalban</b></div><div>Fair enough. Feel like you're missing some of the nuance here, but not gonna criticize opinions.
Out of curiosity, who are your top 5 preferred choices at 17 (excluding inconceivable choices like Bedard or Fantilli)?</div></div>
Nuance is one thing but I'd just rather not lower the value of 17 oa for an asset I like but can be had for alternate pieces. At 17 I'd love if someone like Barlow or Wood maybe Danielson or Ritchie. I suppose the Rd options maybe Sandin-pillikka or wallander are available.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 19, 2023 at 4:42 p.m.
Thread:
An alternative look at Addison to DET
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>Pronman had him going to the Habs that still list for a C. IDK how that changes the board but I’m more confident he’ll be there at 21.
From what I’ve read, Stenberg plays a bit like Ostlund but has a weird production split. IMO not terribly interesting to me at 21 but I’m no scout.</div></div>
Yeah from what I'm seeing across a few different lists, it seems pretty likely that both are avail at 21. Consensus seems to be that Stenberg projects more as a winger than C, so if that's accurate, I'd probably dock him down a bit given our needs. But yeah I'm no scout either, so guess we'll see.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 19, 2023 at 4:28 p.m.
Thread:
An alternative look at Addison to DET
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>Edstrom is a super interesting name right now, I don’t think he was on either Button or McKenzie’s list until recently and that’s a hype train that probs doesn’t get past 21 if MN is there.
Question I have with Stenberg is whether he’s done enough to be closer to 20 rather than 30.</div></div>
Yeah Edstrom is interesting with his frame and production over the last year. Pronman has him at 18 in his latest list, as I'm sure you've seen. He's all over the place with different mocks, though.
I've not seen much of him or Stenberg, so I don't really have an opinion one way or the other.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 19, 2023 at 4:24 p.m.
Thread:
An alternative look at Addison to DET
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>I think we’re overestimating the difference in player that will be around at 21. I would be quite surprised off hand if one of Ritchie/Yager/Edstrom isn’t available then. Moving up to 17 isn’t going to get you a much better prospect than 21 and it’s really a waste of Addison’s asset value.</div></div>
I completely agree - that's what I was trying to communicate above to some of the others that rejected the proposal.
I wouldnt' necessarily initiate this type of trade myself, but they do happen and I wanted to look at an alternative approach to the Addison-DET trades for the sake of discussion
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 19, 2023 at 3:52 p.m.
Thread:
An alternative look at Addison to DET
Edit: <a href="/users/drmantalban" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@drmantalban</a>
Personally Stenberg. Captain for u18 team, respected as one of the better leaders and his game seems translatable to the NHL. If I’m honest, I haven’t seen as much of Edstrom, but based on what I know of Swedish leagues, he is capable of scoring goals.
Stenberg higher floor, lower ceiling
Edstrom lower floor, higher ceiling, more likely to be a gamble.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 19, 2023 at 3:19 p.m.
Thread:
An alternative look at Addison to DET
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drmantalban</b></div><div>Perhaps. This aligns well with comps, so it's more of a thought experiment than a definitive yes/no proposal.</div></div>
That’s fair, and honestly if I didn’t have several players I hope they draft at 17 hoping they fall I’d be okay with it, since I like to think I started the wave of Addison to Detroit for the early second (and recently added the 4th back if needed).
There are a lot of mocks having Moore to Detroit at 9, that’s why I mentioned he would be grabbed at 17. If Detroit can snag two of Leonard / Moore / Barlow / Wood I would be thrilled.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 19, 2023 at 3:04 p.m.
Thread:
An alternative look at Addison to DET
Detroit would take Moore with 17 before trading it back. I assume he is gone by then though.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 18, 2023 at 6:54 p.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>Better start picking top 10! But I would love a Hedman type.</div></div>
That pretty much explains the 22 years of mediocrity we’ve suffered through…never bad enough to get very good!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 18, 2023 at 9:45 a.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>I don’t want the words “big” or “physical” to be selling points of any draft pick the Wild make. If they’re good players that happen to have those characteristics, fine. But if that’s what you lead off with, I’m out.</div></div>
They better search high and low for skilled, mobile, big and physical RHDs then!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 17, 2023 at 7:52 p.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>Lol. The day they start drafting guys with that profile before the 3rd round is the day I lose faith in the rebuild.</div></div>
I’m not sure what you saying here…you don’t want big, physical dmen in the cupboard, or you don’t want them to focus on centers?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 17, 2023 at 6:58 p.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>LOL. We will need to bring an offensive minded D into the fold at some point, but if swing 3 picks in the top 40 I want 3 Cs. Just load up and think about the backend later.</div></div>
Other than possibly adding a big and physical RHD to the prospect pool, they should ONLY draft centers for the next 3-4 years!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 17, 2023 at 6:52 p.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>You do realize if we trade Addison the thing that will be missing from the prospect pool is a player like Addison, right?</div></div>
I get that, but I just can’t stand the thought of having 3 small RHDs! I’ll figure something else out for the PP…
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 17, 2023 at 6:48 p.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
I would be elated if Addison could be flipped for one of the big, physical dmen that are supposed to be available early in the 2nd round this summer!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 17, 2023 at 6:21 p.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
I could see Addison and pick 22 to move up a few spots if there is someone the Wild really want. I think if someone really likes him they could use him to move up a few spots.
Otherwise he gets a 2nd and 4th rounder in different years. Look at teams that have multiple 2nd rounders this year like Chicago and Arizona.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 17, 2023 at 5:32 p.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>Much obliged. I didn’t think Barron was a PP guy.</div></div>
He's working up to it. Still young.
We generally play 4 forwards and 1 D on the PP. Matheson on PP#1 and last year it was a mix of Barron or Xhekaj on PP#2.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 17, 2023 at 5:29 p.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>Right but the thing I’m asking specifically about is an offensive, PP guy. I wouldn’t compare Addison to the guys you listed b/c they’re so stylistically different.</div></div>
We are looking for a #1/#2 RHD who plays 2 ways. Addison is not who we are looking for since we have Justin Barron who can play on the right side and work a power play.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 17, 2023 at 5:27 p.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>Is a RHD PP guy a need in MTL? I know Hutson has the hype but he’s still 2-3 years away.</div></div>
Hutson is LHD anyway.
But like <a href="/users/TheRealisticGuy" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@TheRealisticGuy</a> said, the problem is that Montreal already carries 9 defensemen; Matheson, Guhle, Harris, Xhekaj, Barron, Savard, Edmundson, Kovacevic and Wideman. They'd be more than happy to trade a LHD for a RHD, but acquiring one, straight-up for picks...I'm not sure that's part of the plan, unless they can find a way to trade 1-2 defensemen away first.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 17, 2023 at 5:16 p.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>Cool bro.</div></div>
You want an expanded thought? Fine.
Montreal's mid-rebuild and don't really need Addison. They have RD prospects to integrate and aren't far enough along that paying a high 2nd and 3rd makes much sense. If that was something they would be willing to do, there are better players out there that could return that. But that's just not something realistic.
Detroit may be more interested as they're further along in their rebuild, but that's just a lot for a guy like Addison. They might consider Vancouver's 2nd and something else minor, but it feels like your getting greedy.
Addison generally has less value than the D you listed because of his size. They also had rarer play-styles or more cost certainty. Plus, I assume the Wild have more incentive to move him than other teams did.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 17, 2023 at 5:18 p.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
Nils Lundkvist and Bean comps are probably fair.
Others ….
DeAngelo (2016): 2nd
Mueller (2017): 2nd, 4th
Rundblad (2010): 1st (Tarasenko pick)
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 17, 2023 at 5:15 p.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
Addison vs an early 2nd + late pick is a good hockey trade
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 17, 2023 at 5:12 p.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jnowariak</b></div><div>So I hear the former 1st rounder thing a bit and I don’t get it. Sandin went 29 and Lundkvist went 28 if I remember correctly. Sandin has a decent enough track record to say he’s not a black hole but I’m pretty sure Addison’s xGA rates are similar. As for the scratches, Addison played the same number of games Lundkvist did.
I’ll listen to a different rank order, but they’re very similar players in more ways than you’d expect.</div></div>
I dont think the first rounder bit should factor into the trade value, but it almost always does. Lundkvist may be a closer comp than I originally thought, given where dallas is going to pick now. They're both pretty close in terms of Defensive wins above replacements.
Late first is tricky though because teams drafting that low generally are either moving that pick to alleviate cap difficulties or cause they want someone who can help them immediately. Addison is closer to the latter but there's still a ton of risk involved there that you wonder if contending teams hesitate.
I could see a bunch of the teams drafting high in the 2nd round being interested though.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 17, 2023 at 5:04 p.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
I'd go a 2nd and a 4th or 5th but that's all
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 17, 2023 at 5:02 p.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
The Vancouver 43rd overall and give back Minnesota's 4th round pick in the Sundqvist trade for Addison. That's a fair offer.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 17, 2023 at 4:57 p.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
As someone ringing the Addison bell and a fan of him, Detroit declines. The additional picks are too messy. A fair offer (assuming there still is little interest in re-signing him) is one of the early seconds this season. If an addition needs to be made, throw back on MIN's 4th from the Sunny trade.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 17, 2023 at 4:52 p.m.
Thread:
Addison Trade Comps
No thanks.
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