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leafhype

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Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 29, 2019 at 4:09 p.m.
Thread: Aggressive-Hopeful
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rush5154</b></div><div>
- Why would it disadvantage Marner for him proving he can hang and produce with an elite centre in the NHL? I've heard some bad arguments on this website, but that one was god awful lol. Have you see how many wingers have been injected with Crosby and McDavid over the years. The guys who couldn't keep up with them get punished in their eventual contract negotiations, not the ones who thrive.
- It's not if Marner is "better" than his comparables, and you haven't factored things in like UFA status or reduced state taxes into your arguments which shows your understanding is on the limited side, it's how important he is to the Toronto Maple Leafs. That's all that matters, and his camp has a lot of data that can demonstrate that he is very important to the organization and should be compensated similarly to Matthews and Tavares. Look how Eichel got his RFA contract with Buffalo - they had no other star power and his camp negotiated masterfully to show how much he meant to that organization and got paid according to what Buffalo thinks he is worth.</div></div>

I think these are the 2 most important points here and I would say that
1 - Yes, and the 1s who thrive like Guentzel, Sheary, Kunitz, etc. didn't get an AAV equivalent to the star center they played with. It might be hard to fairly separate how much of Marner's success is driven by Tavares to be sure, but to say that he's just as valuable as the guy who has a decade long resume of dramatically elevating the production output of anyone he plays with seems unreasonable. Marner took a quantum leap with a new linemate this year. His 2 most common past linmates were Bozak/JVR. Tyler Bozak had 5 less points this season than last in 8 less games. He scored 5 less points on the power play (I'm assuming he played 2nd unit in STL). JVR also played a similar pace this season compared to what he did beside Marner (missed time due to injuries).

2 - I am factoring those things in. A contract with Marner would be largely for RFA years. The people I listed signed for mostly (if not all as in the case of Stone iirc) UFA years. That drives their AAV numbers up. Paying him the same or more as those players would kind of equate him to being the best RW in the league. Toronto is not bereft of star power in the way that Buffalo was or without options on the free market. Toronto would be way better suited to fill the void Marner would leave compared to Buffalo.

As to the other stuff you said, I'm not sure I believe that goal scoring is more valuable than assists or that I think centers *should* be worth more. But to those points that is just a matter of how business has been done regarding contracts. While RFAs are seeing way more numbers way sooner, and without the need to win a cup to get them - it hasn't changed the fact that goal scoring is valued more than assists or that centers are valued more. You're equating a change in when players are closer to the value they provide on their contract to the concept that what attributes are valued (goals vs assists, etc.) has also changed and I don't really feel there's any evidence for that. Marner's contract could break ground and set a new precedent where this is no longer the case but I hope not.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 29, 2019 at 1:55 p.m.
Thread: Aggressive-Hopeful
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DustyDitch</b></div><div>why do you think anything over $9m is an over-payment?</div></div>

Just pointing to his counting stats and screaming "LED THEM IN POINTS $$$$ TIME" feels extremely disingenuous. I guess for all the talk of how much better he made Tavares I'm skeptical? Tavares beat his career high in points this season by <strong><em>TWO</em></strong>. Marner beat his by 25. It's hard for me to not to feel 1 player is getting more out of this arrangement than the other.

Being a winger diminishes your value in terms of how contracts in the nhl are given out. Being a playmaker is less valuable than a goal scorer. Being a winger that spent your whole year playing with like a top 5 centre in the league diminishes the value of your stats in contract talks. I don't think he's better than players like Stone, Kucherov, Kane which are the RW comparable contracts at that AAV. Like especially to that last point, even if you just point to his counting stats and ignore all context his immediate comparable RWs aren't getting paid $11 mil.