Well, here is what would happen with this.
1. Marner's agent, upon receiving that offer informs Toronto that his client will be signing an offer sheet.
2. Carolina's general manager politely asks that Dubas never contact him again.
3. Maybe edmonton says yes? Kinda doubtful though, they're up against the cap.

1. I honestly think anything above 9 for Marner long term is an overpay. I can't imagine a team willing to give up 4 1sts + lose 11+ million of cap space for Marner either.
2. Yeah this is the really hopefully part. More that Fox signs here >_>

long term like 8 years? that's over 11. long term of 5 years is probably just a smidge over 10. everyone thought matthews was getting under 11 for 8 years. didn't happen that way.

Remember - before this season Marner's agent told Dubas that they would be willing to sign if Marner got 9 million AAV. Dubas said no and then Marner's camp said fine, Mitch is going to bet on himself. He's now lead the team in scoring 2 years in a row, consistently gets the players he plays with career years (not just JT, look back to other guys like Bozak, JVR, etc.). Dubas cannot seriously tell Marner's camp that Matthews is worth 3 million dollars per year more than him. And the whole "Matthews is a centre and centres deserve more" argument won't hold up here either. Wingers can totally drive play - especially in this new era - and Matthews cant even be trusted to kill penalties and he's a centre. Marner on the other hand is trusted in all situations - brace yourself folks, Marner isn't signing here for anything less than 10.5 million

why do you think anything over $9m is an over-payment?

I know so many want to compare Marner to the Matthew contract. But it doesn't mean that much except it seems to Leaf haters, Marner's contract should be compared to other RFAs also....Point and Aho had better years than Marner, maybe Ranatan. And the league MVP who was just one year away from UFA, Kucherov starts his 9.5m contract.
Just because Marner bet on himself, and good for him, that doesn't entitled to paid as the top three players in the NHL....unless the Leafs want to pay him that.

Canes decline, they have no desire to move Pesce.

It is an overpayment when you compare to any other wing in the league.

Kane 10.5 - 2 cups plus scores more then Mitch
Kucherov - 9.5 - Hart Trophy (this year) - bought out 5 years free agency
Draisaitl - 8.5 million - probably best comparable - signed after ELC - similar numbers playing with similar players
Pastrnak - 6.8 million- signed after ELC - more goals fewer points
Gaudreau

Etc etc etc

Mitch is great, hope he signs and expect he will be overpaid.

My prediction is 10 million x 6 or 7.5 million x 2

No offer sheet because he won’t sign one and because you would have to pay 12 million + to get him to sign plus 4 x #1. No one will do that for a non-center especially when you can sign Pointe, Ratinen, Aho this year.

Just pointing to his counting stats and screaming "LED THEM IN POINTS $$$$ TIME" feels extremely disingenuous. I guess for all the talk of how much better he made Tavares I'm skeptical? Tavares beat his career high in points this season by TWO. Marner beat his by 25. It's hard for me to not to feel 1 player is getting more out of this arrangement than the other.

Being a winger diminishes your value in terms of how contracts in the nhl are given out. Being a playmaker is less valuable than a goal scorer. Being a winger that spent your whole year playing with like a top 5 centre in the league diminishes the value of your stats in contract talks. I don't think he's better than players like Stone, Kucherov, Kane which are the RW comparable contracts at that AAV. Like especially to that last point, even if you just point to his counting stats and ignore all context his immediate comparable RWs aren't getting paid $11 mil.

Yeah, I wonder if going after Colin Miller is an option in lieu of Pesce. Wonder Carolina's feelings are on Pesce/Faulk/Fox in general. The Jets situation with Trouba fascinates me, wonder where he ends up and what his long term AAV looks like (doesn't seem like an option for the Leafs). Not sure what a Kadri/Kap package is worth in a trade or either individually since there are other RD around the league that I think would warrant a conversation either based on current value or taking a bit of dice roll that they can grow/play above what they are now.

You make some good points, but you're missing a lot of key aspects:

- It's not what we think as outsiders that matters, we don't negotiate for Marner, but these are the types of things that will help his camps case. Marner's camp will use every data point imaginable to make the case that he deserves money closer to Matthews rather than further away like Pastrnak, etc.
- Look at Tavares' career high in goals, which you point out are worth more than assists (which is an intellectually lazy argument to begin with - they're dependent on one another, not exclusive, when you extrapolate to how the majority of goals are scored in the NHL) before playing with Marner versus after. It was a mutually beneficial relationship - context matters.
- Correction - being a winger historically diminished your value in NHL contract negotiations. Remember when big contracts were only handed out after you won something? We're wayyyyyyy past those days and there's a plethora of contracts signed at the RFA level in the past 5 years to demonstrate that. Welcome to the new NHL where you get paid before you win because guys are now getting pushed out of the league at 30 years of age and aren't playing into their 40s anymore.
- Why would it disadvantage Marner for him proving he can hang and produce with an elite centre in the NHL? I've heard some bad arguments on this website, but that one was god awful lol. Have you see how many wingers have been injected with Crosby and McDavid over the years. The guys who couldn't keep up with them get punished in their eventual contract negotiations, not the ones who thrive.
- It's not if Marner is "better" than his comparables, and you haven't factored things in like UFA status or reduced state taxes into your arguments which shows your understanding is on the limited side, it's how important he is to the Toronto Maple Leafs. That's all that matters, and his camp has a lot of data that can demonstrate that he is very important to the organization and should be compensated similarly to Matthews and Tavares. Look how Eichel got his RFA contract with Buffalo - they had no other star power and his camp negotiated masterfully to show how much he meant to that organization and got paid according to what Buffalo thinks he is worth.

I think these are the 2 most important points here and I would say that
1 - Yes, and the 1s who thrive like Guentzel, Sheary, Kunitz, etc. didn't get an AAV equivalent to the star center they played with. It might be hard to fairly separate how much of Marner's success is driven by Tavares to be sure, but to say that he's just as valuable as the guy who has a decade long resume of dramatically elevating the production output of anyone he plays with seems unreasonable. Marner took a quantum leap with a new linemate this year. His 2 most common past linmates were Bozak/JVR. Tyler Bozak had 5 less points this season than last in 8 less games. He scored 5 less points on the power play (I'm assuming he played 2nd unit in STL). JVR also played a similar pace this season compared to what he did beside Marner (missed time due to injuries).

2 - I am factoring those things in. A contract with Marner would be largely for RFA years. The people I listed signed for mostly (if not all as in the case of Stone iirc) UFA years. That drives their AAV numbers up. Paying him the same or more as those players would kind of equate him to being the best RW in the league. Toronto is not bereft of star power in the way that Buffalo was or without options on the free market. Toronto would be way better suited to fill the void Marner would leave compared to Buffalo.

As to the other stuff you said, I'm not sure I believe that goal scoring is more valuable than assists or that I think centers *should* be worth more. But to those points that is just a matter of how business has been done regarding contracts. While RFAs are seeing way more numbers way sooner, and without the need to win a cup to get them - it hasn't changed the fact that goal scoring is valued more than assists or that centers are valued more. You're equating a change in when players are closer to the value they provide on their contract to the concept that what attributes are valued (goals vs assists, etc.) has also changed and I don't really feel there's any evidence for that. Marner's contract could break ground and set a new precedent where this is no longer the case but I hope not.

Those are two good overall points and are valid in most respects for sure.

1. I think it's important to recognize that Marner just played his first full year with someone (Tavares) who understands and thinks the game the way he does. He was largely restricted playing with JVR, Bozak, Martin, Marleau (Kadri did well with Marner to be fair) because they do not have the hockey sense and finishing abilities that Tavares does (JVR is mostly a PP specialist with great net front ability, but his 5 on 5 numbers are not flattering). Think about how many wingers Tavares has played with over his past ten years, and none of them have been able to set him up to finish like Marner has. Marner, Tavares and Hyman (who also had a career year) accounted for a third of the Leafs goals this year. Marner does not have the career sample size that Tavares does, but that doesn't matter in his contract negotiation. He had an amazing opportunity going into the 2018-2019 season to play with an elite centre and proved that he could deliver top-end results.

2. The fact is, Marner is one of the best RW in the game. He was only behind Kane and Kucherov in points this year and as I mentioned can play in all situations. Kucherov and Kane do not kill penalties, and Marner was tied for 9th in takeaways. Not that it matters, but even his faceoff win percentage is high 63%. He's an all around winger, few teams have that type of player and the Leafs know they have someone special. People think Nylander's dad was stubborn for Williams negotiation, wait until they see how rigid Darren Ferris (along with input from Mitch's dad) is for Mitch's. I know it'll put the Leafs in a precarious position if they give Marner an eight-figure deal but that's not Mitch's problem. The Leafs chose to give Matthews and Tavares big deals, not to mention overpaying Nylander by 500k, and will have to face the music and give Mitch the same big deal or risk losing him to an offer sheet.

1. Man if you're going to take the stance goals shouldn't/don't matter more than assists so Mitch should get $$$ (from earlier) cause of his points this whole paragraph is moot. It shouldn't matter if Tavares scored more goals than got assists this year, his on ice production wasn't dramatically different than what he always has done (unless you think goal scoring IS worth more, in which case that diminishes Marner's value). Can't have this both ways.

I'm of the mind that production is production so more than focusing on what Marner did for Tavares (beat his career high in points by 2) you should look at what Tavares did for noted 40 goal scorer Anders Lee, noted repeat 30 goal scorer Matt Moulson, etc. The differentials in overall production these people put up WOW Tavares immediately before and after vs. the Bozak/JVR differences WOW Marner over the past few years.

2. 1 of the best RWs in the game? Sure. A superstar worth paying 8 figures for his RFA years? Only in Darren Ferris' dreams (and I guess in the minds of whoever he can convince to shill for him publicly). There's only 1 winger in the league at all making 8 digits and he had a *very* impressive resume when he signed it + the contract bought basically only UFA years. Like Mark Stone just signed an extension for 8x9.5 covering ONLY UFA years. https://imgur.com/a/XEb4Oeb Like, 1 of these things is not like the other.

I just won’t subscribe to the narrative that “Marner only had a good season because he played with Tavares” because those two complemented each other very well. It’s not like Marner was a 40 point guy and then all of a sudden became good overnight. Even his stats from last season aren’t a true representation of his output, as Babcock buried him on the fourth line for several games to send him a message.

My overarching point for this thread is that Marner getting an eight figure deal is not an overpayment when you consider how the contract landscape has changed. Is his contract AAV amount going to be similar to Kane’s - in my mind yes, but the key difference to understand is that the percentage of cap that Kane signed for will obviously be higher than Marners so it’s not a one-for-one comparable. Stones contract in Toronto would be 11 million AAV - Vegas is able to leverage no-state tax into their negotiations and have an advantage compared to other teams in the NHL. Just so it’s clear, Kucherovs deal outside of Florida is also at or over 11 million anywhere else too. This isn’t a Ferris burner account lol and I’m not even a Leafs fan - but the fan base should brace itself for a deal that’s within 1-1.5 million dollars of Matthews deal unless him and Ferris decide to take a bridge-like deal.

What about Mark Stone literally just signing 8x9.5 for exclusively UFA years indicates that Marner is worth 8 figures for mostly RFA years in terms of a changing contract landscape? The difference that Marner makes in net $$$ by playing in Toronto CRUSHES the lack of state tax if you wanna discuss market based leverage. You wanna make a small amount more on your contract and lose god knows how many millions in endorsement deals? He could very well get 8 figures if the contract is negotiated badly on the Leafs end. But to argue that something between 8.5-9.5 on a deal with term is a "discount" is literally, completely indefensibly insane.

No one is going to dispute the off-ice advantages that players receive if they play in Toronto in way of endorsements, but there also has to be the willingness of the player to expose themselves to the world of advertisement (which hockey players, historically, are more guarded against compared to the other big 3 north American sport leagues). That being said, McDavid plays in Edmonton, Ovechkin plays in Washington DC and those two are topping the list of off-ice revenue according to Forbes despite not being in Toronto.

If Marner's deal is between 8.5 and 9.5 AAV it's not insane, it's a flat out steal. Now, some people might be naïve enough to think this will happen - it won't - and some people might think this is his real value range - it isn't. If we've learned anything from Dubas so far is that he overpays his RFAs. Nylander did nothing to warrant a deal that was higher in percentage-of-cap-when-signed compared to Gaudreau or Pastrnak and he got it. Matthews, besides winning a Calder, is your franchise player - yes - but has not done anything to be the second highest AAV player in the league and yet he got it. So why would Dubas all of a sudden be conservative for arguably his most important all-around player? It doesn't follow the trend he's set forth and it is not Marner's problem to worry about how the Leafs manage their cap. And although it's not a massive point, the salary cap is projected to increase to 82-83 million for the 2019-2020 season, so if anything this enables Marner's deal to be on the higher side as opposed to the lower side.

John Tavares would like to have a word with you there Mr. Ferris

Well now you're just trolling, so I can see that this issue is virtually done with. The word "arguably" was put there on purpose, and if JT has a problem with that statement he should watch his game tape against the Bruins in that series. Bergeron outplayed him all series long, and I know Marner wasn't nearly as impactful as he was in last year's playoff round so try and restrain yourself from thinking this is a Ferris dummy account. The fact is that line did not meet playoff expectations and it didn't help that Hyman blew out his ACL in Game 4 and still had to play 3 more games.

How about this:

1. If Marner signs a 7 figure deal with term (i.e., 9.5 AAV for 6 years) you can re-post on this thread that you were right and I'll gladly admit my speculation was wrong
2. If Marner signs an 8 figure deal with term (i.e,, 10.5 AAV million for 6 years) I can re-post on this thread saying that my speculation turned out to be right
3. If it's a bridge deal for 2 to 3 years with reduced AAV (i.e., 8 million AAV for 2-3 years) then it's a push and neither of us were right

Either I'm wording this badly or you're trying to intentionally misrepresent what I'm saying. Marner may very well get like 6x10.5. I'm not at all arguing what he is going to get. I'm arguing that there's no way he's close to being worth that on the back of a single good season playing beside John freaking Tavares. His past linemates haven't produced at a different rate away from him, his underlying play driving numbers aren't super elite either defensively or offensively, etc. To argue that anything above like 8.5-9 on long term is anything other than fair value based on actual data and facts is crazy. To do so because emotionally you feel like he tries really hard or whatever is I guess a thing you could do? Try to be self aware

Arguing what somebody is "worth" is a pretty difficult exercise, and yes we can use comparables all we want but we all have biases and that will corrupt the process. Almost everyone in the NHL works hard, and that would not be my selling point on Marner or any other player for that matter. Hyman works his balls off every night, but there's no way he should make more than 3-4 million on his next deal. I've already stated what Marner's advantages are from a contract negotiation point of view, along with other underlying numbers that help his case. The Leafs will do their best to reduce the importance of those numbers and values, and may use the exact points you're relaying here. In the new NHL and especially with the RFA landscape changing with contract negotiations, I think Marner is worth an eight figure deal, if you use other RFA deals before him as a market reference. Is Matthews "worth" 11.6 AAV in your opinion? Is Eichel "worth" 10 million AAV? The answer might be yes or no depending who you ask, but those contracts have been signed and the market has been set for RFAs to use as leverage in their upcoming negotiations. Marner, Point, Tkachuk, Werenski, McAvoy, Aho, Laine, Connor, Rantanen, etc. will all sign deals that appear shockingly high compared to what we're used to seeing. But it's the new era of the NHL - youth is slowly overpowering the game and GMs will be forced to make tough decisions earlier on in a player's tenure.

It's not that hard to argue what someone is worth on a contract? What are their comparables, how likely are they to sustain their current pace relative to them (underlying stats), what do those players make, does the player perform a role or skill in higher demand, are you paying for team controlled RFA years or UFA years. I agree that Marner and Matthews are comparables, I just draw a way different conclusion than you because I look at more than just his point totals at the end of the year and go "OMG 90 POINTS 12 MILLION DOLLAR BEST PLAYER ON TEAM". All players are comparable in terms of how much value they bring their team on the ice. If you look at WAR/GAR metrics they seem to have Tavares, Matthews, Eichel above Marner in that regard. It's not because these models are designed to hate your favourite player.

My bias is data. You aren't offering me any realistic concrete data points to suggest Marner is the best RW in the league (because that's what paying him this much would mean) and should be paid as such other than winger faceoff % and 1 good season with a bunch of points beside a top 5 center in the league. Which ok, fine. If you don't make an effort to put just his points at the end of the contract year into context with how much of it was driven by a player or how sustainable/repeatable it is you can just root for great contracts like long term deals for noted 30 goal scorers Matt Moulson, David Clarkson, etc. Like you personally can believe that players should be paid equivalent to their points with no other data points other than eye test metrics like "does he look good on the penalty kill". And that may be how this negotiation goes, but I hope not.

My point about comparables being difficult is that players cannot be looked at in a vacuum - they play under different circumstance with different players, sometimes or sometimes not on different teams, and if you were to inject this all into a statistical model the output wouldn't be as crystal clear as people think it would be. I've never been inside an NHL negotiation and my assumption is you haven't either, but I don't think it's a stretch to say that Marner's camp has a lot of ammunition to warrant him being paid similarly to Matthews. You're right - this would mean that he would be paid as one of the top RW in the league AAV wise, but it may pay him similarly to other players percentage of cap wise. That's really the only way to compare players when they sign seasons apart from one another because lately there's been an annual increase in the salary cap, and salaries slide up accordingly because it's a linear relationship.

And I think it's pretty clear that Marner's case for an eight-figure deal isn't solely based on 93 points this season. I don't make my assessments based off end of season point totals, and I've stated earlier what other meaningful underlying stats Marner's camp could use to augment his contract negotiation. You mention WAR/GAR as an analytic that goes against Marner relative to his counterparts, but this statistic also has several flaws: https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/6/16/15774850/advanced-stats-102-what-is-gar-dawson-sprigings-nhl

In terms of the Matt Moulson and David Clarkson comments, that's laughable that you would bring that up. Those contracts were extremely polarized when they were signed and I was nowhere near being a proponent of those deals. Even a few years ago when all of those UFA deals were handed out (Ladd, Lucic, Eriksson, Okposo, Backes) I couldn't believe what I was seeing. Not one of those deals made any sense to sign but GMs got desperate I guess.

Either way - enjoyed the back and forth and we'll check in again when Marner signs to discuss the aftermath.