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ryanma260

Ryanma260
Member Since
Aug. 17, 2018
Favourite Team
Toronto Maple Leafs
2nd Favourite Team
Vegas Golden Knights
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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 5, 2022 at 2:26 a.m.
Thread: Maple Leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ryanma260</b></div><div>Honestly, if we somehow got Strome in a sign and trade from you guys on like a cheaper contract (say around what I have us paying Evan Rodrigues, like that 2.5 - 3 mill year on decent term like 3+ years), I'd honestly give up a guy like Dmitri Ovichinnikov to you guys who I rate super highly as a prospect. I don't know if Strome would cap his value like that tho, I feel like he could probably get more in FA, esp since he had like nearly 50 points last year. It sucks being a fan of team under a cap crunch, honestly just makes things so difficult. Also do you got discord lol, I'm in a server with a ton of pretty hardcore hockey fans if you wanna join.</div></div>

Sorry had to head out so didn't get the invite. I do have discord but yeah I feel Stromer would a bigger clip in FA. I also know the pain your going through, we had to give up some good assets to save on cap over the years but we did win 3 cups so can't complain really.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 4, 2022 at 7:36 p.m.
Thread: Maple Leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ryanma260</b></div><div>I didn't think about that to be honest when I was first making these trades. I think it depends on what deals you get done this offseason with guys like Debrincat, Strome, and Kubalik. I think if you move on from those guys in moves or sign and trades in the offseason that the Tyler Johnson deal would still be viable right? But if you for example, still have DeBrincat, Toews and Kane at the deadline, you'd want all 3 of those retention slots for those 3 guys to maximize the value you can get for them.

I just really need someone to take Mrazek at this point so I'd do this trade without Tyler Johnson tbh LOLLLLLLL</div></div>

TBH, we probably take Mrazek for a 2nd + prospect. Could probably get Strome's rights (if you want/need) at a reasonable price depending on how many teams are looking at him
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 4, 2022 at 6:29 p.m.
Thread: Maple Leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ryanma260</b></div><div>CHI would retain 2.5 and ARZ would retain 1.25. In my mind, the 2nd + "7th" is to take Mrazek, and then Joey Anderson + "moving up 2 rounds to the 5th" is to retain on Tyler Johnson's deal. The prospect is probably negotiable, Toronto won't give up any of their top tier prospects in a deal like this, but someone like Mikhail Abramov or SDA would be available instead of Anderson, both younger with probably a higher upside.</div></div>

Could become messy for us when looking to retain Kane and Toews plus any moves we may look to make at the TDL. The slot becomes more valuable for us when we take all that on board. Not saying this is bad in value, we would just need to be aware of what the plans are moving forward and have a couple of contingencies in place. I wouldn't be quick to pull the trigger on a TJ move where we retain due to this.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 3, 2022 at 8:20 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 13, 2022 at 11:39 a.m.
Thread: Anaheim
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>Thanks for the lengthy reply to my response. (I didn't quote it to save space.) The short version of my opinion is this, which conflicts with one thing you said above: the year that Joe Sakic (no gull) traded for Darcy Kuemper, he had a 0.907 save percentage (hardly a "Vezina type number"). Gibson's save percentage over the past three years, as you point out, is a little over 0.903%. That's fewer than 4 goals in 1,000 shots. So if one year of Darcy Kuemper is worth a first and an A prospect, shouldn't 5 years of John Gibson be worth at least twice as much? I'm not saying -- no where near saying -- that Gibson should return 5 times as much; I'm just saying that I think that he's seriously undervalued in most quarters. Samsonov and 3 seconds isn't close to Gibson's proper value, nor would a late first, a second and Samsonov be. (I also think that you're seriously overvaluing one year of Lars Eller. $3.5 million for a guy who didn't come close to averaging half a point a game on a team good enough to make the playoffs isn't very impressive.)</div></div>

Kuemper may have posted a .907 in 27 games the year before he was traded (it was a .914 in the first 18 games, then he missed a month+ with an MCL injury and struggled in the final 9 games), but he had a .928 the year before that (and came in 7th in the Vezina voting), and a .925 the year before that (5th in Vezina voting). Gibson's now had three straight years of sub-.904 save percentages. Kuemper just had to bounce back from a slightly below average half-season, and even then people were shocked at the price he returned and the assumption most people had was that the Avs overpaid because they were caught off guard when Grubauer got that massive contract from Seattle and acted out of desperation. Gibson has to bounce back from a 142 game, 8000 minute sample of being consistently well below average. Finding examples of guys pulling out of declines as bad as Gibson's is really rare. I went over every three year span since the 05 lockout looking for goalies with three straight &lt;.905 SV% seasons (min 120 GP over the three years). Most of these guys were out of the league within two years of that stretch. I found three who had .915+ seasons as the starter in the year after that stretch. Two of them are not great comps because they happened at the start of the guy's career. Cam Ward's first three NHL seasons are a fit, they stuck with him cause of the Conn Smyth his rookie year, and then he settled in as a starter at age 24. Steve Mason's 2nd through 4th seasons after winning the Calder also fit, then like Ward he turned it around at age 24 and had 4 good years before tailing off. The only one that also (somewhat) fits the age range is Ondrej Pavelec, who had a similar three year stretch at age 24-26, the first three years in Winnipeg (the first year is a .906, but close enough). He spiked a .920 the next season, then fell back to .904 the next year and was out of the league by 31.

Expecting teams to overlook that extended stretch of bad play and the rarity of coming back from it is ridiculous, and the extra years on his contract only make betting on a bounce-back even more dangerous. I think his value would honestly be a lot higher if he had one year left on his contract, because then if he puts up a 4th straight terrible season at least you can move on. I'm sure some team will gamble on him, but I really doubt he gets the kind of return Ducks fans on this site expect. As a Caps fan, I wouldn't want them to take him for free. The downside with that contract is big enough that it could kill the Caps ability to contend for the rest of Ovie's career.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 4, 2019 at 10:03 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 4, 2019 at 9:26 p.m.
Thread: Getting Toronto some grit
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ryanma260</b></div><div>As a Leafs fan I have an axe to grind with you now LMAO

#1 Marner turned down TEN YEARS at 10 Mill AAV, what makes you think he'll take less term AND less AAV?
#2 Ferland fair market price is at least 3.25-3.5, depending on other teams' interest in him, maybe over 4 mill
#3 SCOTT DARLING? NO NO NO NO NO NO NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!! HELL TO THE F*CKING NO!!!! I DON'T WANT SCOTT DARLING ANYWHERE NEAAAAR MY TEAM
#4 As much as I love Pesce and Wallmark seems like a really nice player, I don't think the Hurricanes are gonna give up such a nice contract like Pesce's only to take back Ceci's contract?!?! I don't think the difference between Kerfoot and Wallmark is enough of an upgrade for Carolina to consider this deal.Maybe if you offered a 2nd and a 3rd instead of just a 6th? But if that was the case, I'd just let Ceci stay for the year and let him go after that.</div></div>

I don't think Marner would have turned down 10 years, the Leafs can't even offer 10 years. The max term is 8. And with RFA's they generally want more money for a longer term as it buys more of their prime. If Marner signs for, say, 3 years, it's less money now, but if he does well he can command a higher contract in a few years. If he signs long term, he'll make more money because the Leafs are buying more prime years as well as projecting his future seasons, which hopefully are very good.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 4, 2019 at 8:38 p.m.
Thread: Why not Offersheet Marner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ryanma260</b></div><div>Bro, we offered him 8 years 10 Million AAV and he said no as if we insulted him or something. It's not what Toronto is willing to pay, we clearly showed we value him, but Marner wants Matthews money and I know some talent needy teams like Anaheim who just need a young offensive star will offer him those kind of $$$. Marner wants 12, but I think the Leafs won't go over 11. And no, Marner is not 2 million over Aho, I think Marner's valuation is 9.5 - 10 mill especially since he's a WINGER. But some team will pay him, and when that time comes its up to Toronto to decide if we wanna keep him or get the picks.</div></div>

Yeah dude, hometown on a cup contender. I honestly dont get it. Take the $$ and win!? Lol