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scarbrow21

scarbrow21
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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 31, 2018 at 3:57 p.m.
Thread: Trouba
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>I have no dog in the fight, but this is a curious statement. If they're equivalent players at 5v5 and Dumba is clearly superior on the PP, doesn't that have value?



Another interesting statement. in 2017-18, their CA/60, FA/60 and SA/60 were nearly identical. Dumba had a much better GA/60 (2.20 v 2.56) despite slightly worse O-zone starts (46.02 v 48.56). Looks like Dumba can play the defense too.</div></div>

I don't know whos models you're using for advanced stats but using Bill Comeau, I get (Trouba/Dumba) for CF/60: 53.62 v 46.67 for CA/60: 50.47 v 51.07 xGF% 54.48 v 51.45 Rel Tmate xGF% 1.810 v -3.790 xGF/60: 2.423 v 2.047 CF % of 52 v 48
When using hockey reference- CF% 50.4 v 46.9, CF% rel .3 v -.3 FF% 51.7 v 47.3 FF% rel 1.1 v -1.2

Nothing I see says Dumba is better defensively and is actually not "nearly identical". The Ozone and Dzone starts are what you stated in the models I've seen but I'm legitimately asking what you use as reference for analytics?
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 31, 2018 at 3:57 p.m.
Thread: Trouba
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>I have no dog in the fight, but this is a curious statement. If they're equivalent players at 5v5 and Dumba is clearly superior on the PP, doesn't that have value?



Another interesting statement. in 2017-18, their CA/60, FA/60 and SA/60 were nearly identical. Dumba had a much better GA/60 (2.20 v 2.56) despite slightly worse O-zone starts (46.02 v 48.56). Looks like Dumba can play the defense too.</div></div>

I don't know whos models you're using for advanced stats but using Bill Comeau, I get (Trouba/Dumba) for CF/60: 53.62 v 46.67 for CA/60: 50.47 v 51.07 xGF% 54.48 v 51.45 Rel Tmate xGF% 1.810 v -3.790 xGF/60: 2.423 v 2.047 CF % of 52 v 48
When using hockey reference- CF% 50.4 v 46.9, CF% rel .3 v -.3 FF% 51.7 v 47.3 FF% rel 1.1 v -1.2

Nothing I see says Dumba is better defensively and is actually not "nearly identical". The Ozone and Dzone starts are what you stated in the models I've seen but I'm legitimately asking what you use as reference for analytics?
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 31, 2018 at 12:37 p.m.
Thread: Trouba
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Dumba is arguably more valuable than Trouba. Coyle is way better than Tanev of Chariot making this a very uneven trade.</div></div>

Dumba is not arguably more valuable that Trouba. They're very comparable pp60 wise and 5v5 (dumbas points inflated by PP time while Troubas deflated by lack there of). Trouba is just better defensively. [url]<a href="https://public.tableau.com/profile/bill.comeau#!/vizhome/SkaterComparisonToolv2/Dashboard1%5B/url" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://public.tableau.com/profile/bill.comeau#!/vizhome/SkaterComparisonToolv2/Dashboard1[/url</a>]

Coyle is however much better than Tanev and Chiarot holds negative value so if you're the Jets you do this in a heartbeat to be done with the Trouba situation and get back a similar RHD.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 31, 2018 at 11:02 a.m.
Thread: WPG BOS (Trouba deal)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gofnut999</b></div><div>Well we traded Lindgren last year so try again.

Carlo, Heinen, McQuaid for Trouba maybe.</div></div>

Amended to take out Lindgren and CJ Seuss.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jfstompers</b></div><div>your going to freak bruins fans out wanting donato</div></div>
Freaks out Jets fans too having to trade a top pairing 24 year old RHD but circumstances call for it *IMO.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SammyT_51</b></div><div>If boston goes for trouba, Carlo, pick and young forward not named Donato or DeBrusk, likely C should be included..</div></div>

and your thoughts on who that'd be? I think BOS keeps Carlo as the 3rd pairing and moves Miller due to age and his contract expiry after next season instead as Carlo is more than capable of handling 3rd pairing minutes especially if paired with one of Chara-Grzelyck- Krug.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mcoach69</b></div><div>like the trades but Morrissey is under paid IMO 5.5+ not sure i would bury Chariot</div></div>

Morrisey has no rights, this takes him till UFA and only buys 2 years of UFA status. 5x6 is pretty fair all things considered but if term goes to 7 or 8 I'd have to agree with you.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 26, 2018 at 11:36 a.m.
Thread: Always with the Trouba deals
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Davisoc</b></div><div>So essentially you're saying two first for Serg if Trouba doesn't sign?

If that is the case I am a little worried if I am Winnipeg running into the same situation with Serg. That guy is going to be much more expensive long term then Trouba, his value is so high in the league its kind of crazy and his ceiling is that of Trouba or more. It just feels like a lot to give up for realistically a one year rental or a long term issue. Stevie expects players to take friendly contracts to help the team, Trouba has never proven to share that mentality.

Just a few thoughts, let me know if you disagree.</div></div>


Sergachev has 5 years of control left though so that problem is far down the line. In TBL case though, the 2 x 1sts are redundant and just protection. They'd already have talked to Trouba about an extension and could sign it in January. Even if he doesn't re-sign there because of god knows what, they'd still have him for this year and next PLUS the 2 1sts. Another CUP + 2 extra 1sts the next two years in Tampa would be worth Sergachev IMO considering who they already still have.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 25, 2018 at 10:23 a.m.
Thread: WPG EDM BUF MTL 4 way
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sabres89</b></div><div>What's it gonna take to sign trouba? That matters here. Risto at 5.5 is better than trouba at 8 plus a second. And without an extension it's horrible. I'm not saying no, it's just not an easy yes.</div></div>

To sign in BUF for 6-7 years Trouba likely gets 6.5M-7.<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Subbanator7667</b></div><div>Montreal isnt trading Pacioretty, Byron and a second for a RNH. Really the only team this works out for is Winnipeg</div></div>

Bergavin traded Subban for Weber, Sergachev for Drouin, and Galchenyak for Domi (though I actually don't mind this trade)...this looks like the best deal he's ever made

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Larkinisking</b></div><div>Yeah Buffalo isn't giving up Risto for 2 years of Trouba, Trouba wants to be here in Florida close to his fiancee and home in Fort Lauderdale.</div></div>

I don't take anything you comment seriously...so if you see an armchair gm team with my name on it dont bother commenting...I wish I could just delete or block you because you're only ever negative
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 24, 2018 at 4:24 p.m.
Thread: Hey Florida...Want Trouba??
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DirtyDangles</b></div><div>Here is the math until he turns 33. At 33, unless he is a super stud he will likely see a decline in his pay. In scenario 2, he becomes a UFA at 30 and likely signs another 5-7 year deal at a high rate, say $8 mil per, which in the long run would have paid him more total money over his career.

$6 mil (last 2 year deal) + $5.5 (this deal) + $6 ( next years 1 year deal) + $49 mil (UFA contract @ 7x $7, can't see him getting more than this) = $66.5 mil until age 33
$40 mil ($5 mil x 8 years) + $24 mil ($8 x 3 years, will likely be longer term) = $64 mil until age 33...this is a negligible difference in pay.</div></div>
So I like what you've done but the likelyhood of an 8 year deal initially wouldn't have been there. Maybe more like the Morgan Reilly at 6 or 7 years. That's 1-2 more prime years of pay added on which probably adds another 2.5-5M but depends on how fast he curtails off. The other thing is the negligible part you've alluded to and if accurate, then not only is it NOT going to cost him money in the long run it'll also have the added benefit of him playing where he wants to by reaching UFA faster. Also doesn't take into account if he signs the UFA deal in say TB or FLA as rumored prefered destinations the tax implications for that contract are 20%. I added a rating to this post not for the OP but for your work in those #'s !!!
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 23, 2018 at 2:33 p.m.
Thread: Trouba Traded (WPG-COL-EDM)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>I don't know why you think it "prudent" to trade Trouba. If Winnipeg is in a win mode now, it really doesn't matter that he is UFA in two years. UFAs come and go all the time, just play them when they are on your team. Winnipeg actually traded for an upcoming UFA Stastny because he helped make them stronger in the playoff run. This obsession with trading upcoming UFAs is just unfounded.
Do you now how impossible it is to let another team negotiate with Trouba, for an extension and then make a trade deal wth the Jets, especially mid season. It just doesn't happen. Make a trade but don't put in the silly "with an extension" clause.</div></div>

Trouba with extension is 4X more valuable than w/o. It's like the NSH-OTT-COL three way deal involving Duchene and Turris. NSH doesn't do that unless Turris comes with an extension. I also get that you don't have to trade him ASAP or it's doom and gloom but the Jets don't have any top 4 potential RHD prospects and Bouchard is that. To get that you'd have to take advantage of options available and COL would probably LOVE to upgrade Barrie to Trouba, and EDM would LOVE to get Barrie as they don't have any top RHD guys either and likely can't afford to wait till Bouchard is ready to develop. WPG because they have Buff and Myers, can wait the 3 years so it's making the best use of the situation out there.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 17, 2018 at 4:40 p.m.
Thread: WPG NYR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>Just from where i'm sitting, Jets are giving too much up in that trade.</div></div>

Respectfully disagree. Hayes fits nice in the #2 Slot and maybe is exactly what the team needs to get put over the top. Howden waiting in the wings makes little expendable in 2 years when his NMC becomes a NTC and your C depth would become Scheif-Hayes-Howden/Roslovic-Lowry which could be dynasty in the making. The only really good piece the Jets had to give up is Vesalainen, and a 1st because Myers couldn't be kept long term anyways due to CAP complications and Petan will never get a fair shake in WPG with all the top level talent. It's short term gains with long term positive outlooks and I assure you that the deal doesn't get done without Vesalainen
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 17, 2018 at 4:37 p.m.
Thread: WPG NYR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rooney11</b></div><div>I'm sorry but neither of those trades make any sense for Winnipeg. Were not giving you Vesalainen, Petan, Myers and a 1st for Hayes and Howden. Biggest thing is Vesalainen is not going anywhere. Period.</div></div>

The fact you said neither of those trades makes sense gave me the indication you have no idea of NHL players value. Chiarot is a 7th D man at best and he's paid too much to be around. Pick swap of a 6th-5th is a best case scenario to move him and Morrow is easily his replacement.

I though do agree to not wanting to move Vesalainen. He's a surefire stud. Howden is def a gamble for him but WPG is flush with winger, and thin with top level C prospects aside from Roslovic so, it's a risk worth taking especially if Howden becomes a #1-#2 C that's way more valuable than a top 6 winger. The only way you get those guys is to draft and develop or take big gambles like this. Hayes is the main piece you're willing to use that risk on as he's a quality 2nd line C that could do wonders between Ehlers and Laine.