Big Big Moves 2020 Summer

Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Jan. 30, 2020

Published: Jan. 30, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

So this is probably going to piss off a lot of people.

The Leafs Nation Website today posted this article: https://theleafsnation.com/2020/01/29/should-the-leafs-consider-trading-morgan-rielly/

The article makes the following major points:
-More and more reports of Muzzin signing an extension are being floated.
-If Muzzin does that means the Leafs left-side next season is: Rielly, Muzzin, Dermott, Sandin. That means someone is playing on their off-side. In that situation, pairings are probably:
Muzzin-Holl
Rielly-Liljegren(possibly a UFA but that opens a different issue)
Sandin-Dermott
-A d-corps that keeps Muzzin and ships out Rielly to make room for a top-2 right shooting D-man
-The article suggests Parayko from STL. Giving us the following pairings:
Muzzin-Holl (the article calls for Muzzin-Liljegren I like Muzzin Holl more)
Sandin-Parayko
Dermott-Liljegren

My take on this.
The BIG issue I see with Rielly is that his next contract will probably demand 8mil+ a season (barring some crazy-big drop-off in production) that puts him in-line for a 3mil raise at the same time Sanding is going to be in-line for a 5mil raise and Liljegren will be in-line for a raise as well. Also only 1 season prior to Holl needing a raise. All of these next-contract cap considerations are manageable. Now let's imagine a Jake Muzzin 6.5mil contract that will be occurring over this timespan. For argument's sake, I'd say we're looking a this for Muzzing 4x7mil OR 5x6.5mil OR 6x6mil. In any of these scenarios the Dubas and co. will be looking to extend Rielly, Sandin and Liljegren while 6mil+ is on the books for Muzzin. Are these cap-considerations insurmountable? NO of course not BUT I would argue that Rielly/Muzzin + Dermott + Sandin is enough LD depth and for the development of Dermott and Sandin one of them shouldn't be playing LD3 minutes while the other plays on their off-side. The cap considerations also add to that.

I also agree with the thesis of the article from Leafs Nation that a stronger Leafs D would look like this:
Rielly/Muzzin - Top 2 RHD (Pietrangelo, Parayko, Fabbro, Doughty, Manson)
Sandin - Holl
Dermott - Liljegren

I think the logic from the LD on RD side experiment of previous seasons with the Leafs shows that getting a bonafide top-2 RHD in to play in-front of Holl and Liljegren should be the priority over having both Muzzin and Rielly in the lineup.

So this leads to the ACGM. I am going to take the thesis that we should trade Rielly. I'm going to accept that although the way I see it is that we should be making a choice between Rielly and Muzzin. I personally think there are going to be pros and cons to both. The biggest contrast I see is that Muzzin is more defensively responsible but is older and he may have lost a step by time his contract expires. Again I'm going to make this team by accepting the premise that we should trade Rielly.

NOW THE TRADES
EDM - turning bubble players into a pick
NYR - I promised you I'd do it. The Rielly trade. The Rangers LD is actually weaker than their RD. Rielly playing with Trouba or Deangelo is hard to pass up on. Fox is obviously the odd-man-out. Younger RD + 1st for established Norris contending LD is pretty fair. I think
NSH - Fabbro is an excellent piece. The preds want to get back in the picture ASAP is my bet. Sending back Johnsson and Bracco who are top 9 proven and ready for a shot respectively is good return + a 1st rounder and a B prospect. This should be hard for Poile to pass on.

The trades and signings leave the Leafs with enough cap-space to make some mid-season moves as well if there are any holes that need shoring up.

I think that these trades are particularly Dubas-like as they bring in players who will make the Leafs better now but have an exceptionally large development upside.

To return to the problems from the start of this post I think that this will improve the Leafs d immediately and space out the issues of salary-cap more. To return to my earlier point about not having too much preference around Muzzin/Rielly. A couple of things to note if the Leafs go the don't extend Muzzin and keep Rielly route.
1. The Leafs still need to bring in someone like Fabbro - a well rounded more defensively-mind RHD. I'd propose that Fabbro playing with Rielly wouldn't be bad. A cheaper route could be Manson from ANA.
2. Be wary of the big-swing signing. I'd be really really concerned about the Leafs if we keep Rielly and swing for Pietrangelo as a UFA. The team will have A LOT of huge contracts weighing it down.
3. A no Muzzin keep Rielly pairing setup. COULD BE:
Rielly-Manson (I'd bet Johnsson, B prospect, 2nd, 4th gets the job done)
Dermott-Holl (I like this pairing a lot)
Sandin-Cheap 5/6D in early 30s (think Hainsey to Rielly - Engelland would be great)
Marincin - Liljegren (I'm in the camp that Liljegren may not be as ready as people think)

So there we have it. A crazy ACGM based on an interesting idea

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