Killorn

Tampa definitely declines that

It's definitely an overpayment, but they have limited options for where he can be traded and limited teams willing/able to take him. They also get a Pulj who has big upside and will be cheap to sign. I think TBL may be forced to make some lopsided trades to stay under the cap

Athanasiou's going to need a raise not just a qualifying offer to get him to sign. He was incredible difficult to sign in Detroit (a big part of why he was traded) as he held out in 2017 (missing training camp plus the first 10 games of the season) and threatened to play in the KHL---he flew to Switzerland and began skating with HC Lugano right before a deal was reached. The Wings offered 2 years at 1.9 per year, but instead he agreed to 1 year at 1.387 so he would gain arbitration rights the following year which lead to his 2 years contract at 3M per in July 2018. He then became a 30 goal scorer in '18-'19 and then this year had a terrible season and was traded.

He's not going to sign a 1 year qualifying offer. He'll point to the 30 goal season, he's already been a holdout, and he has left North America to play hockey once already.

I don't see how we can jurtify asking for more after this season. Even with arbitration I bet it would be around 3M especially during a flat cap and his regression this season. He can try to hold out but he isn't going to get more than 3M in Europe right now

He's already held out once and flew to Europe with the intention of playing in the KHL. He'll point to the 30 goal season which he hit after that 2yr x 3M contract was signed (and even with the regression this past year--a young 30 goal scorer with speed to spare is worth a premium). He won't go to arbitration--he'll hold out. If the team takes him they won't be able to sign Mike Smith or Mike Green until after the hearing because he could get a significant raise. Flat cap doesn't mean flat salaries in arbitration for players coming off bridge deals.